78 replies to this topic

[bemused]

My bet is that there has been far more communication between the northern lords than is apparent on the surface ...and that its very possible that many of the lords, at least , know of Bran and Rickon's survival .Some may already know Robb's wishes for the succession .Two of Maege Mormont's daughters are with her ,according to Asha..but they apparently didn't march south with her. Glover is with Manderly, they have Wex ...and at least the Liddle clan know Bran is alive and could reasonably assume Rickon is , since Ramsay's men were searching for them after the sack of WF.

I'm sure ravens haven't passed between them on these matters ..not all have ravens..Too subject to interception , not all maesters can be trusted completely, etc. But messengers can get through ..safer , if more time consuming. After Robb's execution of Rickard , the Karstarks would probably not be advised out of caution. But almost everyone else could be ..even the Umbers and even Lady Dustin , if she's playing a double game.

[Rolex Baratheon]

Such a long essay of reasons as to why he will win... So little time.

[Zupoleon]

I'm fairly confident Stannis wins the battle.  The question for me is what's in store for him afterwards?  I think the North has aligned with him because they have mutual goals at the moment, but once they are rid of Bolton's and Frey's I have a feeling they may try and give Stannis the boot as well...

[Rolex Baratheon]

Zupoleon, on 13 December 2012 - 11:00 PM, said:

I'm fairly confident Stannis wins the battle.  The question for me is what's in store for him afterwards?  I think the North has aligned with him because they have mutual goals at the moment, but once they are rid of Bolton's and Frey's I have a feeling they may try and give Stannis the boot as well...

I don't get that feeling at all. They are grateful to him for the man that helped them avenge their beloved Ned.

[bemused]

I don't think they'll give him the boot , exactly ..but I think , like Jon , they'll want to deal with him more on the basis of a conditional partnership.

[borwin]

Well what I find sad is that Stannis has gone through so much on his fight for the throne, and he will probably lose it all soon. When Jon Snow is resurrected from the dead, Melisandre and the Queen's men will all swear allegiance to Jon as the AA. Then I can see Rob's letter come out into the open naming Jon Snow his legitimate heir.

When that happens Stannis will no longer have the loyalty of the North and his own power base.

[NotSoSilentSister]

borwin, on 14 December 2012 - 06:23 AM, said:

Well what I find sad is that Stannis has gone through so much on his fight for the throne, and he will probably lose it all soon. When Jon Snow is resurrected from the dead, Melisandre and the Queen's men will all swear allegiance to Jon as the AA. Then I can see Rob's letter come out into the open naming Jon Snow his legitimate heir.

When that happens Stannis will no longer have the loyalty of the North and his own power base.

Not necessarily.

The resurrection of Jon doesn't have to be a big spectacle. Mel takes in an injured Jon, nurses him back - nobody needs to know that he was actually dead there for a time.

And it might be in Mel's interest to keep it a secret. I could see her sticking with Stannis even when she eventually cottons on to the Jon=AA connection.  Flip-flopping on the designated savior now would necessitate revealing her own deception about the fake Lightbringer and undermine her credibility. Maybe Mel might find it wise to keep Stannis as the figurehead and support Jon in secret.

And as to the impact of Robb's will - it all depends on timing. How long will it take Jon to be back in the game? I think he will spend a couple of chapters in Ghost, exploring the Lands of Always Winter. And when he's back, the Wall might be down, the Others invade and the questions of succession to Winterfell won't be exactly on the top of people's minds. Northmen won't be so quick to break up the alliance with Stannis if they need him to help fight off the Others (or at least not fight them). After that, either Jon or Stannis might well be dead anyway, so the issue resolves itself.

Also, even after a victory at the lake, Stannis and Northmen might still be busy with Boltons and Ironborn for a while, and as long as those external threats exist the alliance is pretty safe. I don't envision the Northern conspiracy running as smoothly as many people here apparently predict.

What I really can't see happening is Stannis marching towards King's Landing with a Northern army any time soon.

[Knight errant]

borwin, on 14 December 2012 - 06:23 AM, said:

Well what I find sad is that Stannis has gone through so much on his fight for the throne, and he will probably lose it all soon. When Jon Snow is resurrected from the dead, Melisandre and the Queen's men will all swear allegiance to Jon as the AA. Then I can see Rob's letter come out into the open naming Jon Snow his legitimate heir.

When that happens Stannis will no longer have the loyalty of the North and his own power base.

He still doesn't meet the prophecy so he isn't AA. I hardly see how they see a Resurrection  fairly common for red priests and instantly crown this kid king? No. They already swore oaths and are no where near him. I'd see an Ice dragon come from the wall before that happens. Nor will the North accept an illegitimate heir, Bran and rickon come before Jon whoever his dad is so I hardly see them allying to a guy they don't know over Rickon STARK and manderly has already secretly sworn for Stannis.

[StannisisaBAMF]

I feel like Stannis is likely to have success due to martins attitude toward being realistic in his world. Stannis isn't a very likable character and he is very harsh and just, which has a way of keeping people in line, but it will also give people a reason to trust him, he is loyal to his supporters. Stannis is extremely determined to succeed and seems to be willing to do whatever it takes to do so, and will accept good council over his own if its truly the best thing to do. Stannis is ultimately a solid leader, he doesn't have the baggage the lannisters, boltons, freys have scheming their way to power.  Stannis is stable, and for war weary people and for instance the Iron Bank, this is really an attractive feature.

Stannis will win because he has the balls and leadership to take it by force, and compared to alot of other challengers, hes not that bad of an option for the people to back.

[StannisisaBAMF]

Zupoleon, on 13 December 2012 - 11:00 PM, said:

I'm fairly confident Stannis wins the battle.  The question for me is what's in store for him afterwards?  I think the North has aligned with him because they have mutual goals at the moment, but once they are rid of Bolton's and Frey's I have a feeling they may try and give Stannis the boot as well...

I feel like if stannis wins, and the restores the starks through davos the north will rally behind him. The North has a huge reason to hate everyone in the south, so siding with the guys who freed you and would restore order in the south (If possible) seems like a good option for the Northerners.

[aryagonnakill]

My two cents here is that no northern lords are under guest rights, for many reasons.  As one poster pointed out the responsibilities of a host during guest rights are to provide protection, and as many others pointed out, nourishment.  When Manderly was attacked his guest right obligation would have been undone, if it had existed in the first place, which it didn't.  
Another point I'd like to make is to the person who posted that there was a vague reference to an escape from the godswood and that bran knows secret passages from AGOT.  Well idk about this exit from the godswood I got the feeling it was from the lower level of the crypts, but as I pointed out elsewhere those secret passaged Bran mentions don't bring you in or out of Winterfell, they bring you from one side to another.
Last, Lady Dustin.  It is my view that Lady Dustins impression of Theon is/was the same as that of Roose Bolton, that Theon was Ramseys and she was just feeding misinformation.  I believe that if Lady Dustin really did love Brandon, then any ill feelings she may or may not have had towards Ned, would be outweighed and that she would ultimately help the Starks to honor his memory.

[The Chequered Raven]

ckal, on 10 December 2012 - 11:13 PM, said:

Stannis could absolutely lose the battle for Winterfell and it would BE SO GRRM.

Count on it.

Absolutely!

Maybe at the end the score is even - Stannis, the Frey's and the Boltons are dead...

I guess we'll have rivers of blood in WoW. The Dogs of War will feast...

[Capon Breath]

What do people think about Stannis comment from the Theon gift chapater that

Spoiler

his envoy "May hear news of his death" (paraphrase).

  Makes it seem like Stan has a plan.....?

[mrlukeduke]

What I think is that Stannis might use his faked death (even by simply having the master write such in a letter by raven to Ramsey) to get into Winterfell after he defeats the scouting Bolton/Frey forces, which I think he will. Winterfell is still manned after all. One man on a wall is worth a multitude below.

This would explain Ramsey's letter anyway. But it could also simply mean that Stannis knows he may die, but Ser Justin still had better put his daughter on the goddam throne.

Edited by mrlukeduke, 20 December 2012 - 08:33 AM.

[mrlukeduke]

Hmmm, just realised that it would be amusing if Stannis did pretend-die just like his sword of pretend-flames!

Maybe Jon and Danaerys will both die (like, for good) and Stannis will just end up as the Magical Hero Who Returns To Fight Le Frosties. Haha, wouldn't that be an hilariously cruel twist, especially for the Jon/Dany fans. He'd be a false hero, an anti-hero, but fulfil the prophecies all the same, and cast doubt on whether Azor Ahai / TPTWP wasn't just a big fakeypants LIE to begin with anyway!

[NotSoSilentSister]

mrlukeduke, on 20 December 2012 - 08:19 AM, said:

Maybe Jon and Danaerys will both die (like, for good) and Stannis will just end up as the Magical Hero Who Returns To Fight Le Frosties. Haha, wouldn't that be an hilariously cruel twist, especially for the Jon/Dany fans. He'd be a false hero, an anti-hero, but fulfil the prophecies all the same, and cast doubt on whether Azor Ahai / TPTWP wasn't just a big fakeypants LIE to begin with anyway!

I do think that Stannis might end up keeping his reputation as  AA after all. He might well be the one all the songs will be about in the end. (Although, probably not uncontested in that regard; the other religions in Westeros might be somewhat invested in pointing out how the Rhollorists did not get everything right exactly). He probably won't fit the bill exactly, but well enough to make a compelling case in the court of public opinion.

Even if it's Jon and Dany who end up actually ticking all the necessary boxes way more comprehensively. But songs do often get it slightly wrong. Sounds like the kind of theme Martin might like.

Edited by NotSoSilentSister, 20 December 2012 - 09:35 AM.

[George W. Lannister]

I give it 80:20 that Stannis wins The Battle On The Ice. This is separate from a battle for Winterfell, though.  Even if Ramsay + the Freys leave the castle to fight, isn't Roose still sitting inside with more men?

[ab aeterno]

George W. Lannister, on 21 December 2012 - 11:46 AM, said:

I give it 80:20 that Stannis wins The Battle On The Ice. This is separate from a battle for Winterfell, though.  Even if Ramsay + the Freys leave the castle to fight, isn't Roose still sitting inside with more men?

Half of those men are loyal to the Starks and would probably open the gates for Stannis/Manderly.

[mrlukeduke]

George W. Lannister, on 21 December 2012 - 11:46 AM, said:

I give it 80:20 that Stannis wins The Battle On The Ice. This is separate from a battle for Winterfell, though.  Even if Ramsay + the Freys leave the castle to fight, isn't Roose still sitting inside with more men?

Yes, hence IMO why Stannis emphasizes that there may be rumours of his death, which may even be true. I think he's planning a ruse/deception. It's not just the battle outside that's critical, but the battle for Winterfell where 100 men on a wall can hold thousands back.

ab aeterno, on 21 December 2012 - 11:49 AM, said:

Half of those men are loyal to the Starks and would probably open the gates for Stannis/Manderly.

Yeah this is another way of getting into Winterfell once/if he wins the battle in the ice. Stannis has a bunch of tactical options IMO.

Edited by mrlukeduke, 21 December 2012 - 12:33 PM.