44 replies to this topic

[JaegrM]

Is it just Varys and Illyrio ?

I was reading aDWD earlier and after reading through some of Tyrion and JC's parts it really seems to me that if he is a fake no one that's assisting him is aware of it.

Which got me thinking....
If this conspiracy is limited to just Varys and/or Illyrio then... really why bother?
Especially if it's a Blackfyre thing.

I mean, if the realm and Aegon think he's a targ, but he's actually a Blackfyre, why would Varys or Illyrio ever reveal the truth?

Especially if the plan is to marry him to Dany, a real Targ.

I guess I just don't see the benefit of lying about who Aegon is.

Edited by JaegrM, 11 December 2012 - 10:37 PM.

[Fire Eater]

Varys and Illyrio kept it secret, but Aegon won't survive long anyway, and the secret could be revealed to any by the time she reaches Westeros for a Dance of Dragons.

[danm_999]

The "why bother" aspect of it for Illyrio would be that Aegon is his son.

As for Varys, beyond his partnership with Illyrio, that's not yet totally clear. Some of us think Varys might not fully on Team Blackfyre.

[Ser Grimes]

but if they had already put the golden company on layaway, and had 15 years to groom him, why pretend he was a targ at all? just to get dany to marry him?

doubt it. illyrio sold her to khal drogo. he could easily have FORCED her to marry aegon/griff and just offed viserys, or something along those lines. was it jsut to get connington to play along? i doubt his leadership skills are THAT necessary

[Ser Grimes]

and just for the record, i aint sayin hes real, i just wanna know the point in faking him...

[Fire Eater]

danm_999, on 11 December 2012 - 11:18 PM, said:

The "why bother" aspect of it for Illyrio would be that Aegon is his son.

Serra could have been a Blackfyre, and Varys could have been related to Serra, possibly her brother

Edited by Fire Eater, 12 December 2012 - 12:53 AM.

[Apple Martini]

What is with the influx of "What's the point?" questions on here today? It's included in the story, ergo, it has to serve some point, even if that point hasn't been revealed yet.

[Jon Icefyre]

Ser Grimes, on 11 December 2012 - 11:26 PM, said:

and just for the record, I aint sayin hes real, i just wanna know the point in faking him...

The point is to put their own blood on the Iron throne if Varys is indeed a Blackfyre and Faegon is IIIyrio's son.  They're playing the role of king maker putting the person they want on the Iron throne.  It's all a game to them this is what Vary's whole power speech to Tyrion was about. "Power resides where men believe it resides.  It's a trick a shadow on the wall."  Who cares if the whole realm believes he's a Targ it doesn't change the fact that genetically speaking he's a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre and all that follow in his bloodline will be descendants of Daemon Blackfyre the man half the realm believed to be the rightful king during the time of the first Blackfyre rebellion(and Blackfyre supporters still believe).  Remember even though Dameon Blackfyre was a bastard  both his parents were targ, which means he was still 100% targ so Blackfyres still have targ blood in them.

So maybe Varys and IIIyrio are thinking it's going to to be a hell of a lot harder to put him on the throne as a Blackfyre. With the Sack of KL giving them the perfect opportunity to take the real Aegons identity and give it to young Griff who has all the Blackfyre traits(which are also Targ traits) maybe they simply say, "Hey who cares if people think he's a targ at the end of the day Blackckfyres are targs anyway, the point is we were able to put a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre on the throne and that's all that matters as long as we know who cares what anyone else thinks."  No matter what people think the fact is if Faegon takes the Iron throne and has kids and they have kids they will all come from Daemon Blackfyre.

When you think about it, it's not like a situation similar to this hasn't been played out before in the history of the seven kingdoms.  Joeffry sat on the Iron throne even though everyone on the small council at the time of GOT knew he wasn't Roberts son and the man who decided to call out the Lannisters out on their bs(Ned Stark) got his head chopped off.  No one cared to challenge Joeffry because the Lannisters were the richest most powerful family in the seven kingdoms and no one wanted to deal with Tywin Lannister.  Now Joeffry's little brother sits on the throne simply because the Lannisters won the war of 5 kings and have aligned themselves with Highgarden.  Once again a lot of people including the Tyrells know Tommen isn't a Baratheon they just don't care enough to wage a war they will probably lose.

I mean situations like this could possibly go all the way back to the first Blackfyre rebellion.  If king Daeron was indeed the Dragonknight's bastard(which is a strong possibility) then he too like Tommen and Joeffry was a false king and everyone in his bloodline would actually be descendents of Aemon Targaryen of the kingsguard and not King Aegon the unworthy, but it doesn't matter because in the end Daeron won the war and the people recognized him as the true king some out of loyalty and some probably for the simple fact that the royal army was too powerful to challenge and they didn't want to die or be exiled like the Blackfyre supporters. I repeat "Power resides where men believe it resides."

Edited by Jon Icefyre, 12 December 2012 - 04:08 AM.

[Buried Treasure]

They want to pick who sits the Iron Throne and can't pick the real Aegon on account of him being dead?

[JaegrM]

Jon Icefyre, on 12 December 2012 - 01:54 AM, said:

The point is to put their own blood on the Iron throne if Varys is indeed a Blackfyre and Faegon is IIIyrio's son.  They're playing the role of king maker putting the person they want on the Iron throne.  It's all a game to them this is what Vary's whole power speech to Tyrion was about. "Power resides where men believe it resides.  It's a trick a shadow on the wall."  Who cares if the whole realm believes he's a Targ it doesn't change the fact that genetically speaking he's a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre and all that follow in his bloodline will be descendants of Daemon Blackfyre the man they believed to be the rightful king during his time.  Remember even though Dameon Blackfyre was a bastard  both his parents were targ, which means he was still 100% targ so Blackfyres still have targ blood in them.

So maybe Varys and IIIyrio are thinking it's going to to be a hell of a lot harder to put him on the throne as a Blackfyre. With the Sack of KL giving them the perfect opportunity to take the real Aegons identity and give it to young Griff who has all the Blackfyre traits(which are also Targ traits) maybe they simply say, "Hey who cares if people think he's a targ at the end of the day Blackckfyres are targs anyway, the point is we were able to put a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre on the throne and that's all that matters as long as we know who cares what anyone else thinks."  No matter what people think the fact is if Faegon takes the Iron throne and has kids and they have kids they will all come from Daemon Blackfyre.

I get that, but, it doesn't seem like they have any real intent to control Aegon from the shadows once he claims the Iron Throne...
Aegon seems to think he's the real deal
Dany has proven to be unpredictable and from what I can tell Illyrio and Varys still wanted the marriage.

So, are they just hoping for a personal victory?
A secret 'F-you' to all the Targs?

[Jon Icefyre]

JaegrM, on 12 December 2012 - 02:56 AM, said:

I get that, but, it doesn't seem like they have any real intent to control Aegon from the shadows once he claims the Iron Throne...
Aegon seems to think he's the real deal
Dany has proven to be unpredictable and from what I can tell Illyrio and Varys still wanted the marriage.

So, are they just hoping for a personal victory?
A secret 'F-you' to all the Targs?

It's more like an F-you to the entire kingdom and a pretty big one that could possibly last as long as the first Targ dynasty did.  They want Aegon to think he's the real deal Good King Daeron thought he was the real deal and he built a line of kings that lasted a century because of it.  And we don't know Varys doesn't have any intent or won't be able to control him just yet after all I imagine there is a strong possibility Faegon will be grateful to the man who saved his life as a baby(which is Varys who did the believed baby switch)which is what Faegon believes happened since he thinks he's really Aegon.  

Besides if you think about it they've been controlling him from the shadows his entire life
1.  He stayed with IIlyrio until he was 5
2. Then he was given to JC
3.  He was given a septa
4. He was given a trainer in arms
5. He was given a Halfmaester
6. He was given the Golden company
  Vays tells Kevan Lannister at the end of ADWD that,"He was taught to read and write. To study history, law, and poetry. He lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers, and mended nets. He learned practical things such as washing his own clothes, fishing, cooking, binding up wounds. He was familiarized with hunger, and the fear of being hunted. His education was intended to teach him that kingship was a duty, not a right."
All of this comes from arrangements that lllyrio and Varys made they have been pulling the strings this whole time.....What makes you think they'll stop once/if he takes the throne?

Edited by Jon Icefyre, 12 December 2012 - 03:57 AM.

[JaegrM]

Jon Icefyre, on 12 December 2012 - 03:11 AM, said:

It's more like an F-you to the entire kingdom and a pretty big one that could possibly last as long as the first Targ dynasty did.  They want Aegon to think he's the real deal Good King Daeron thought he was the real deal and he built a line of kings that lasted a century because of it.  And we don't know Varys doesn't have any intent or won't be able to control him just yet after all I imagine there is a strong possibility Faegon will be grateful to the man who saved his life as a baby(which is Varys who did the believed baby switch)which is what Faegon believes happened since he thinks he's really Aegon.  

Besides if you think about it they've been controlling him from the shadows his entire life
1.  He stayed with IIlyrio until he was 5
2. Then he was given to JC
3.  He was given a septa
4. He was given a trainer in arms
5. He was given a Halfmaester
6. He was given the Golden company
  Vays tells Kevan Lannister at the end of ADWD that,"He was taught to read and write. To study history, law, and poetry. He lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers, and mended nets. He learned practical things such as washing his own clothes, fishing, cooking, binding up wounds. He was familiarized with hunger, and the fear of being hunted. His education was intended to teach him that kingship was a duty, not a right."
All of this comes from arrangements that lllyrio and Varys made they have been pulling the strings this whole time.....What makes you think they'll stop once/if he takes the throne?

Aegon, JC and The entire GC just decided to bail on Illyrio's plan to meet up with Dany, none of them has any fear of not doing as he told them, none of them have any real outcry of obligation to him.

Meanwhile Illyrio is giving them gifts, and wanting to hang out with them.
Duck and The Halfmaester are pretty much just like, 'no.'

It's pretty clear Illyrio has no sway over them as they are now, when he would be most useful, when/if Aegon takes the throne, he'll be even less important in terms of usefulness.

On top of that, Dany has shown time and time again that she can't be trusted to follow through on plans. She's entirely unpredicatable and with all the rumors of torturing envoys, and and her betraying loyal servants, The plan was STILL for Aegon to marry Dany.

The fact that Illyrio is Aegon's bitch, coupled with Dany's unpredictability, seems to say to me that Vary's and (especially) Illyrio would have very little sway over a crowned Aegon.

[Buried Treasure]

What about the reverse situation, if Aegon is real what do Varys and Illyrio get out of it?

If they were genuine Targaryen supporters the answer would be self explanatory, but why would genuine Targ supporters have screwed over the other 2 members of House Targaryen by leaving them to fend for themselves for years?

So if Aegon were real, the question would still apply, whats the point of Varys helping him?

[JaegrM]

Buried Treasure, on 12 December 2012 - 12:57 PM, said:

What about the reverse situation, if Aegon is real what do Varys and Illyrio get out of it?

If they were genuine Targaryen supporters the answer would be self explanatory, but why would genuine Targ supporters have screwed over the other 2 members of House Targaryen by leaving them to fend for themselves for years?

So if Aegon were real, the question would still apply, whats the point of Varys helping him?

Well, like Aegon has said his claim is the strongest, so it makes sense that he be the one groomed to lead.

With Robert alive and united a Westeros behind him, the Targs were in no way ready to conquer or claim the throne.

Viserys was mad, but still they assisted him, it even says Illyrio planned on originally bringing Viserys back to Westeros with a Dothraki army behind him, But it's implied that they still planned on seating Aegon on the throne.

Why arm Viserys, a Targ, if they were Blackfyre loyalists?

Dany was a weak, pliable little girl when GoT began, not much they could do with her then especially since she was the price for Viserys army.

Illyrio took a risk just by sheltering the Targs.

Didn't Varys tell Jorah not to let the poisoner kill Dany?

Edited by JaegrM, 12 December 2012 - 02:21 PM.

[Daenerys is my queen]

If Aegon is fake I think Varys and Illyrio know but no one else.

[Jon Icefyre]

Its pretty obvious Varys and lllyrio's parts to play in all of this is far from over

Edited by Jon Icefyre, 12 December 2012 - 04:46 PM.

[Jon Icefyre]

JaegrM, on 12 December 2012 - 12:13 PM, said:

Aegon, JC and The entire GC just decided to bail on Illyrio's plan to meet up with Dany, none of them has any fear of not doing as he told them, none of them have any real outcry of obligation to him.

Meanwhile Illyrio is giving them gifts, and wanting to hang out with them.
Duck and The Halfmaester are pretty much just like, 'no.'

It's pretty clear Illyrio has no sway over them as they are now, when he would be most useful, when/if Aegon takes the throne, he'll be even less important in terms of usefulness.

On top of that, Dany has shown time and time again that she can't be trusted to follow through on plans. She's entirely unpredicatable and with all the rumors of torturing envoys, and and her betraying loyal servants, The plan was STILL for Aegon to marry Dany.

The fact that Illyrio is Aegon's bitch, coupled with Dany's unpredictability, seems to say to me that Vary's and (especially) Illyrio would have very little sway over a crowned Aegon.

Wow are you serious? JC and Aegon wouldn't have Duck or the halfmaester or the GC or any of those things you just mentioned if it weren't for Illyrio and Varys arrangements.  They want Aegon and JC to think they're running the show that's what controlling from the shadows is. If you honestly think JC and Aegon would be in the situation they are currently in without the help of Varys and lllyrio you seriously need to reconsider how you interpret this series.  Controlling from the shadows mean you control the whole dynamics of ruling the seven kingdoms including politics not just specifically Aegon and JC battling in war.  What do you think Varys was doing when he murdered Kevan Lannister just when it seemed Kevan was finally getting the realm to a relative state of peace?  You should re-read the ADWD epilogue if that doesn't tell you Varys is controlling this whole thing from the shadows this conversation is hopeless.

[JaegrM]

Jon Icefyre, on 12 December 2012 - 04:38 PM, said:

Wow are you serious? JC and Aegon wouldn't have Duck or the halfmaester or the GC or any of those things you just mentioned if it weren't for Illyrio and Varys arrangements.  They want Aegon and JC to think they're running the show that's what controlling from the shadows is. If you honestly think JC and Aegon would be in the situation they are currently in without the help of Varys and lllyrio you seriously need to reconsider how you interpret this series.  Controlling from the shadows mean you control the whole dynamics of ruling the seven kingdoms including politics not just specifically Aegon and JC battling in war.  What do you think Varys was doing when he murdered Kevan Lannister just when it seemed Kevan was finally getting the realm to a relative state of peace?  You should re-read the ADWD epilogue if that doesn't tell you Varys is controlling this whole thing from the shadows this conversation is hopeless.

No, running things from the shadows is not having Viserys go with the Dothraki and getting killed when what you want is for him to chill in Pentos.
It's not having Dany take the ships that are supposed to be bringing her to Pentos to Slavers Bay
It's not having Aegon abandon his Queen and attack Westeros before you're even aware that that could happen at that point.

All they've managed to do so far is provide the resources needed for Aegon's conquest and to keep Dany alive.

Varys killing Kevan is again another service being done for Aegon (and Dany.)
Varys is risking his life for him(them).

So far they've got nothing for everything given, and they're not positioned to gain any say if he wins.

But Illyrio spent a lot of wealth and brought even greater risk to himself by aiding Viserys and Dany.

They've spent all these resources, and taken all this risk for at least 2 Targs,
It seems odd to me that they'd have a Blackfyre, who has a blood feud with the Targs raised to believe he's a Targ and have Targ pride.
His intended bride is a Targ.
His children will be named Targeryn.

For a feud that's gone so deep for so long, that just doesn't make sense to me.

additionally, it makes no sense for them to be like "Oh by the way... you're really a Blackfyre." once he sits on the throne.

[Jon Icefyre]

JaegrM, on 12 December 2012 - 04:57 PM, said:

No, running things from the shadows is not having Viserys go with the Dothraki and getting killed when what you want is for him to chill in Pentos.
It's not having Dany take the ships that are supposed to be bringing her to Pentos to Slavers Bay
It's not having Aegon abandon his Queen and attack Westeros before you're even aware that that could happen at that point.

All they've managed to do so far is provide the resources needed for Aegon's conquest and to keep Dany alive.

Varys killing Kevan is again another service being done for Aegon (and Dany.)
Varys is risking his life for him(them).

So far they've got nothing for everything given, and they're not positioned to gain any say if he wins.

But Illyrio spent a lot of wealth and brought even greater risk to himself by aiding Viserys and Dany.

They've spent all these resources, and taken all this risk for at least 2 Targs,
It seems odd to me that they'd have a Blackfyre, who has a blood feud with the Targs raised to believe he's a Targ and have Targ pride.
His intended bride is a Targ.
His children will be named Targeryn.

For a feud that's gone so deep for so long, that just doesn't make sense to me.

additionally, it makes no sense for them to be like "Oh by the way... you're really a Blackfyre." once he sits on the throne.

Its not odd its logic.  With the real Aegon being murdered it gave them the perfect opportunity to do an identity switch.  If they want to put a blackfyre on the iron throne this is they're only option of how to do it.  They have to pretend he's Aegon Targ other wise they will get no support or acknowledgement from the realm so if they want young griff to sit on the Iron throne this is the only way to do it.  They will never get support from the kingdoms by declaring him an outright blackfyre that's the whole point of pretending.  I don't think they ever intend on telling Aegon he's a blackfyre for reasons i stated in earlier posts whats not to get about that?  As for marrying him to a Targ bride have you forgotten that Daemon Blackfyres original intent was to marry a Targ bride?  That's one of the reasons the rebellion started to begin with.  As for his children being called targs didn't I already go over this? No matter what people think the fact is if Faegon takes the Iron throne and has kids and they have kids they will all come from Daemon Blackfyre. The simple fact is that genetically speaking he's a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre and all that follow in his bloodline will be descendants of Daemon Blackfyre.  If Varys and lllyrio know that then that's everyone who needs to know.  If the realm knew this there would most likely be another rebellion that's obviously why it will be kept a secrete.

Edited by Jon Icefyre, 12 December 2012 - 06:33 PM.

[Callandoril]

I am not sure is Aegon Aegon or Faegon, for now he seems to be Faegon but only GRRM knows. The point in creating Faegon might be similar to Jordan's Wheel of Time Prophecies of the Dragon - The Pattern kept creating false Dragon Reborns before the true one proclaimed himself. In WoT the timeline base for that is 3400 years and there have been many false Dragons, but the timeline in ASoIaF is 20-ish years so having one false Targ seems plausible.