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What is Varys really upto ?


Flaming Heart

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Varys is obviously a pretty intriguing player in the game.However,His paramount purpose for doing whatever he has done is not really clear to me.Some suggest he is a targ loyalist.I have my doubts with that theory because he has no real reason for bieng loyal,spesifically to targs.He wasn't even born in westeros,plus he hates magic and considering the fact that dragons have a direct connection to magic he shouldn't have love for targs.

The other idea is that he serves the realm and the smallfolk.This does explain some of his actions.However,Why would he let the realm bleed twice to put a "king who serves the realm" on the throne.If the stories are true,Rahegar would have been a brilliant king,Areys was the problem.Varys could easily have gotten rid of him and put Rahegar on the throne and realm would have prospered.

Greed and Power also don't seem to be his motivations.

So,what might really varys want ?

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Varys' actions do seem quite opaque at the moment. However, there is one theory which I personally feel explains much of Varys' seemingly contradicting motivations:

Varys might be neither a Targ loyalist nor a "smallfolk loyalist", but a Blackfyre loyalist and Aegon is a Blackfyre.

Historic Background: In case you have missed it, the Blackfyres are a branch of the Targs that claims that they should have inherited the Iron Throne. Intel about them is thrown in all over the series and the Dunk & Egg stories also contain a lot of background on them. Their founder, Daemon Blackfyre, was a legitimized bastard of two Targs (not married to each other though), one of which was the king. So blood-wise, he was as Targaryen as a real Targaryen. A large part of the realm believed he should be the one to take his father's throne and not his half-brother on grounds of merit (and rumours about his half-brother's legitimacy, maybe mostly self-serving). He believed so too and rebelled. There was a war; the Blackfyres lost. Afterwards, several of Daemon Blackfyre's heirs tried again to win the crown, but they never succeeded.

Why would Varys be on Team Blackfyre? There are several possibilities which are being discussed. The most straightforward one is that Varys himself is a Blackfyre or is closely related to one. We have been told that the Blackfyres are extinct in the male line, but noone said anything about the female lines (e.g. the kids of Daemon's daughters or his sons' daughters etc). Another is that Illyrio has strong connections to House Blackfyre on his own (e.g. because his wife Serra might have been a Blackfyre) and Varys feels loyal to Illyrio who protected him. The strongest assumption is that both are true: Varys and Serra are both Blackfyres (and that might be why she and Illyrio met), Aegon is Serra's son with Illyrio (who seems extremely fond of him).

Aegon? Who the F is Aegon? There's some speculation whether the kid known as Aegon is really Aegor Targaryen, son of Rhaegar and Elia. The "mummer's dragon" from the House of the Undying prophecy and Quaithe's vision seems to refer to him; in the House of the Undying, it is strongly implied that one of the lies Dany is supposed to slay concerns Aegon. It seems kind of neat that Varys would swap just the one person who's face would be rendered unrecognizable by Gregor (e.g. Rhaenys was identifyable). Admittedly it's of course also neat that the heir to House Blackfyre happens to fall into the correct age frame, so maybe that doesn't point in either direction. Some people have brought forward doubts that the true heir to the Targaryen line (which the real Aegon would be) should be introduced that late in the series, though I personally would not put anything like that beyond GRRM.

The Crossroads Inn: This is a very cool story inserted into the narrative by the wandering septon Meribald, seemingly at random. Short version: The Crossroads Inn once had a sign that was a dragon made of black cast iron to honour the Targs, though actually the Targ dragon is red. Then the stuff with Daemon Blackfyre happened, and he gave the Blackfyres a black dragon as a sigil. So the Targs were pissed and cut of the black iron dragon sign and threw it into the sea. It was washed away, but after a long time had passed, it was swept back to Westeros again, only the rust had turned it red (though of course it was still black below that). If Aegon is Aegon Targ, the story seems slightly pointless, just a bit of flavouring that oddly follows the Targ-Blackfyre mechanics. If Aegon is a Blackfyre, the whole sign mimics the Blackfyre history quite cleverly: Black Dragons being cast down by the Targs, thrown into the Sea (did I say? the Blackfyre's made their exile over the Narrow Sea), but then returning back from the sea now looking red (i.e. Aegon posing as a Targ).

Some Contracts Are Writ In Blood: When Blackfyre supporter Bittersteel saw Daemon fail, he established the Golden Company over the Narrow Sea so that one day they could still put another Blacky on the throne. And whoops, for the first time in their history, the Golden Company breaks a contract in order to support Aegon for the Iron Throne. When asked about it, we get a "Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more." That might be a pretty big hint that at least the very upper management of the Company knows about Aegon. Note though that Jon Connington as per his POVs has no clue.

In summary, I think the "Aegon = Blackfyre" explains several things, including Varys' motivation, which otherwise would seem quite puzzling. There are some strong hints, but on the other hand, of course it's quite an assumptions. I won't say I'm completely convinced, but I do think it has a very decent probability.

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I am probably really just on my own in this section but I believe that Varys is for the people, and for serving the realm as he told Ned in the dungeons. I believe that he willing to put the realm through two civil wars however is because I believe he wants to give the realm a leader they deserve.

I believe that Aegon is neither a Targ or a Blackfyre, but just a boy who was raised to believe he was one. Aegon was taught what a King should be, and if he is just an average boy, I think it was done to prevent the trace of insanity from the Targ family from gaining a posistion of power again. I know I have no proof for this, but I still can't get away from this thought.

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Varys' actions do seem quite opaque at the moment. However, there is one theory which I personally feel explains much of Varys' seemingly contradicting motivations:

Varys might be neither a Targ loyalist nor a "smallfolk loyalist", but a Blackfyre loyalist and Aegon is a Blackfyre.

Historic Background: In case you have missed it, the Blackfyres are a branch of the Targs that claims that they should have inherited the Iron Throne. Intel about them is thrown in all over the series and the Dunk & Egg stories also contain a lot of background on them. Their founder, Daemon Blackfyre, was a legitimized bastard of two Targs (not married to each other though), one of which was the king. So blood-wise, he was as Targaryen as a real Targaryen. A large part of the realm believed he should be the one to take his father's throne and not his half-brother on grounds of merit (and rumours about his half-brother's legitimacy, maybe mostly self-serving). He believed so too and rebelled. There was a war; the Blackfyres lost. Afterwards, several of Daemon Blackfyre's heirs tried again to win the crown, but they never succeeded.

Why would Varys be on Team Blackfyre? There are several possibilities which are being discussed. The most straightforward one is that Varys himself is a Blackfyre or is closely related to one. We have been told that the Blackfyres are extinct in the male line, but noone said anything about the female lines (e.g. the kids of Daemon's daughters or his sons' daughters etc). Another is that Illyrio has strong connections to House Blackfyre on his own (e.g. because his wife Serra might have been a Blackfyre) and Varys feels loyal to Illyrio who protected him. The strongest assumption is that both are true: Varys and Serra are both Blackfyres (and that might be why she and Illyrio met), Aegon is Serra's son with Illyrio (who seems extremely fond of him).

Aegon? Who the F is Aegon? There's some speculation whether the kid known as Aegon is really Aegor Targaryen, son of Rhaegar and Elia. The "mummer's dragon" from the House of the Undying prophecy and Quaithe's vision seems to refer to him; in the House of the Undying, it is strongly implied that one of the lies Dany is supposed to slay concerns Aegon. It seems kind of neat that Varys would swap just the one person who's face would be rendered unrecognizable by Gregor (e.g. Rhaenys was identifyable). Admittedly it's of course also neat that the heir to House Blackfyre happens to fall into the correct age frame, so maybe that doesn't point in either direction. Some people have brought forward doubts that the true heir to the Targaryen line (which the real Aegon would be) should be introduced that late in the series, though I personally would not put anything like that beyond GRRM.

The Crossroads Inn: This is a very cool story inserted into the narrative by the wandering septon Meribald, seemingly at random. Short version: The Crossroads Inn once had a sign that was a dragon made of black cast iron to honour the Targs, though actually the Targ dragon is red. Then the stuff with Daemon Blackfyre happened, and he gave the Blackfyres a black dragon as a sigil. So the Targs were pissed and cut of the black iron dragon sign and threw it into the sea. It was washed away, but after a long time had passed, it was swept back to Westeros again, only the rust had turned it red (though of course it was still black below that). If Aegon is Aegon Targ, the story seems slightly pointless, just a bit of flavouring that oddly follows the Targ-Blackfyre mechanics. If Aegon is a Blackfyre, the whole sign mimics the Blackfyre history quite cleverly: Black Dragons being cast down by the Targs, thrown into the Sea (did I say? the Blackfyre's made their exile over the Narrow Sea), but then returning back from the sea now looking red (i.e. Aegon posing as a Targ).

Some Contracts Are Writ In Blood: When Blackfyre supporter Bittersteel saw Daemon fail, he established the Golden Company over the Narrow Sea so that one day they could still put another Blacky on the throne. And whoops, for the first time in their history, the Golden Company breaks a contract in order to support Aegon for the Iron Throne. When asked about it, we get a "Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more." That might be a pretty big hint that at least the very upper management of the Company knows about Aegon. Note though that Jon Connington as per his POVs has no clue.

In summary, I think the "Aegon = Blackfyre" explains several things, including Varys' motivation, which otherwise would seem quite puzzling. There are some strong hints, but on the other hand, of course it's quite an assumptions. I won't say I'm completely convinced, but I do think it has a very decent probability.

If Varys' endgame is the Game of Thrones, I agree with this (I do subscribe to the Aegon Blackfyre theory regardless). However, I feel that Varys, alone of the players in the Game of Thrones (with the only possible other exception being Petyr... cause no one knows what he's really up to either, but that's another thread entirely) is playing the Game of Thrones so as to reach a certain end in the Game of Ice and Fire. In the Ser Kevan POV epilogue, after Varys shoots him, Varys says that he did it "for the children."

Now, let's step back from that and go back to the Wall, where Jon hears Mel tell him that "all [she] sees is snow." We have, from Mel's POV chapter, that what she is actually saying is "all I see is Snow" with a capital "s"... those who hear it are losing the distinction in translation between a regular noun and a proper one.

Back to Varys and Ser Kevan. Kevan's interpretation is that Varys is doing it "for the children". But, since Martin has already established the concept of errors in translation vis-a-vis capitalization, Varys might actually be saying "for the Children", the Children being the Children of the Forest. Varys might be trying to help out the CotF and using the Game of Thrones to whatever end he has in mind relative to the Children and the coming battles between Ice and Fire.

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What do you mean by "a concept of errors?" He wrote 'Snow' and 'children.' Seems like an really, really big stretch.

The idea that you hear a word, "snow", or "children" and think it is just the everyday usage of the word, when in actually the person saying it is referring to a capitalized pronoun that gives the entire sentence new meaning. Mel saying "I try to find Stannis, but all I see is snow" is a far different meaning than her saying "I try to find Stannis, but all i see is Snow." The first is what Jon thinks she is saying, the second is what we know her to actually be saying via her POV chapter. Similarly, when Varys says that he is doing it "for the children", that is how Ser Kevan (our POV provider) hears and interprets it... but, as Martin has already established that what one POV interprets as the capitalization is not necessarily the case, it leaves open the possibility of it occurring here as well, with Varys saying "for the Children" while Kevan interprets it as "for the children." Many times, Martin has done something simply to have it be in our minds when he does it again in a very unrelated scene later on as a hint to what is truly going on, and this instance might be one of those cases.

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On a reread of AFfC, Cersei says something along the lines of when her and Jaime were together in the Red Keep, they had to be careful because the Keep was notorious for having ears. I've been wondering why Varys never informed Robert about that, or has attempted to blackmail them with that information, probably with help from a third party since Jaime wouldn't mind gutting the eunuch.

The fact that Varys tacitly accepts that, and I assume he knows because he knows everything else, puzzles me and perhaps is some key to his motivation. What purpose does he have to keep Robert with horns and then have two Lannisters sit the Iron Throne?

My only thought would be that he wants to cause as much chaos as possible at the appropriate time to mislead Westeros, either from across the sea or from the north. On another note, his little birds have some striking parallels to a certain Crow's eye and his Silence crew...

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Varys' actions do seem quite opaque at the moment. However, there is one theory which I personally feel explains much of Varys' seemingly contradicting motivations:

Varys might be neither a Targ loyalist nor a "smallfolk loyalist", but a Blackfyre loyalist and Aegon is a Blackfyre.

This also explains the strategy Illyrio reveals to Tyrion regarding "selling" Daenerys to the Dothraki. IE Viserys and Daenerys aren't as central to his plans as Aegon.

On the other hand it doesn't seem to explain why Aegon and Connington wanted to go to Daenerys to establish a partnership - with Illyrio's seeming consent. Aegon does seem to believe he is a Targaryen and Daenerys might believe it even if it's not true but something still doesn't ring true there.

Generally if Varys supports Illyrio and Illyrio supports the Blackfyres I think we would see more antipathy towards Daenerys (like not giving her the dragon eggs).

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On a reread of AFfC, Cersei says something along the lines of when her and Jaime were together in the Red Keep, they had to be careful because the Keep was notorious for having ears. I've been wondering why Varys never informed Robert about that, or has attempted to blackmail them with that information, probably with help from a third party since Jaime wouldn't mind gutting the eunuch.

The fact that Varys tacitly accepts that, and I assume he knows because he knows everything else, puzzles me and perhaps is some key to his motivation. What purpose does he have to keep Robert with horns and then have two Lannisters sit the Iron Throne?

My only thought would be that he wants to cause as much chaos as possible at the appropriate time to mislead Westeros, either from across the sea or from the north. On another note, his little birds have some striking parallels to a certain Crow's eye and his Silence crew...

If incest had been proved, and if Cersei's children had been named Jaime Lannister's bastards, they would have been removed from the succession. Cersei would have been executed for treason. Robert would have been free to marry again. In all likelihood, his new wife would have given him legitimate Baratheon heirs. That would not be in Varys' interest if he is planning a Targaryen restoration. Legitimate heirs would be much harder to dispose of then Cersei's bastards who have no legitimate claim to the Iron Throne.

Of course it is also possible that Varys just realized that Robert would not believe him, and might even kill him to keep him quiet. If not Robert then certainly Tywin Lannister who would have done everything in his power to keep his daughter's reputation intact and his grandchildren heirs to the Iron Throne.

I'm probably completely on the fringe, more so because I have nothing to back it up, but I think Varys is an agent of whatever ancient evil rises in the north, making sure no one sane and somewhat competent stays in power for too long.

I have been wondering about that, too. If he wanted to give the Iron Throne to Aegon, a plan he set in motion more than a decade ago, why did his good friend Illyrio much later arrange support for Viserys the Beggar King?

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This also explains the strategy Illyrio reveals to Tyrion regarding "selling" Daenerys to the Dothraki. IE Viserys and Daenerys aren't as central to his plans as Aegon.

On the other hand it doesn't seem to explain why Aegon and Connington wanted to go to Daenerys to establish a partnership - with Illyrio's seeming consent. Aegon does seem to believe he is a Targaryen and Daenerys might believe it even if it's not true but something still doesn't ring true there.

Generally if Varys supports Illyrio and Illyrio supports the Blackfyres I think we would see more antipathy towards Daenerys (like not giving her the dragon eggs).

The marriage idea might have originated with Jon Connington rather than Illyrio or Varys. I think Varys left most of the decisions regarding Aegon to Jon Connington after he handed the boy over to Connington for education. I don't believe that Illyrio and Varys are opposed to it, though.

The Beggar King and his sister were not central to Illyrio's and Varys' plans. They were expendable. Establishing an alliance by marriage with the Dragon Queen, however, is a sound political move. Varys and Illyrio thought Dany would die among the Dothraki, instead she came back serious competition for the Iron Throne. She has gathered a large army of excellent soldiers absolutely devoted to her. Her claim is backed a actual dragons, the ancient symbol of House Targaryen. A marriage would neutralize her as a rival and strengthen Aegon's position.

I think you place too much importance on the dragon eggs. The eggs were a curse on House Targaryen, and Varys and Illyrio probably considered them pretty stones. Valuable but cursed, and ultimately useless, pretty stones. Generations of Targaryens had destroyed themselves trying to make those eggs hatch. They made for a suitable wedding gift, and Varys and Illyrio didn't care if their curse destroyed Dany as well.

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I think we can rule out Varys actually working for the realm/children/smallfolk. I mean just go back and read his conversation w/ Illyrio in the first book, then look at his actions from there (including trying to keep Aerys on the throne). Varys is making the realm and it's children bleed as a means to his own end...

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My basic theory on this goes no further than saying simply Varys is the man. The expressed CotF theory tickles my fancy, but its more likely what we all already know. That he's setting the plate for either Targ player, or both. I can see him and Illyrio on the small council when all is said and done. Even though they come off as evil. Thats what Ice and Fire is all about. Peace isn't always about good, rather it's about good and evil coinciding. Because unless we're talking about the Mad King, good and evil is usually based on perspective. But to my original point, Varys is the man, no one can mess with him.

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  • 2 weeks later...

There seems to be an awfully strong parallel between the end of ADWD and what Jaime and Barristan suggest his role was under Aerys: deliberately keeping someone unstable & crazy in power, and separating them from competent ppl.

"Ser Barristan once told me that the rot in King Aerys’s reign began with Varys"--ASOS, p. 341 (speaker is Stannis)

"The king reminded Lewyn Martell gracelessly that he held Elia and sent him

to take command of the ten thousand Dornishmen coming up the kingsroad." --ASOS p. 347

"He saw traitors everywhere, and Varys was always there to point out any he might have missed."--ASOS, p. 347 (Jaime)

"He wanted me where Varys could watch me, day and night.

So I heard it all." --ASOS, p. 348 (Jaime)

"When the word reached court, Aerys packed the queen off to Dragonstone with Prince Viserys. Princess Elia would have gone as well, but he forbade it. Somehow he had gotten it in his head that Prince Lewyn must have betrayed Rhaegar on the Trident, but he thought he could keep Dorne loyal so long as he kept Elia and Aegon by his side." --ASOS, p. 348 (Jaime)

"whispers of a certain eunuch’s talents crossed the narrow sea and reached the ears of a certain king. A very anxious king, who did not wholly trust his son, nor his wife, nor his Hand, a friend of his youth who had grown arrogant an overproud. I do believe that you know the rest of this tale, is that not so?”"--ADWD (Illyrio to Tyrion)

"With Varys whispering in his ear, King Aerys became convinced that his son was conspiring to depose him, that Whent’s tourney was but a ploy to give Rhaegar a pretext for meeting with as many great lords as could be brought together."--ADWD (Barristan)

(we have indications of Rhaegar possibly planning to depose Aerys but only much, much later--he tells Jaime that changes will be made shortly before the Trident, and Connington says something like "By the end, even Rhaegar" acknowledged Aerys' madness. So the stuff about a plot before Harrenhall, before everything started, is likely complete nonsense).

You can perhaps interpret the Illyrio-Varys conversation--"one hand may die, why not a second? You have danced this dance before my friend."--as being about Chelsted. But even if you don't there's an implication that Varys is whispering in Aerys' ear about treachery from Dorne, which results directly in keeping Elia & Aegon as hostages--yet he selflessly saves the kid, and she trusts the mad king's confidante to do it? Nuh-uh.

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Clearly Varys has done much to plant Aegon is a situation where he will have a legit chance to gain the Iron Throne, now the WHY could be complicated or it could be that he will be set for life by doing this (I do think its more complicated then that).

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