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Varys & Illyrio Theories


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#1 lioneagle7

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 02:51 AM

Just a couple thoughts/theories on the old "Varys Blackfyre" theory.

Illyrio is also a Blackfyre, he matches up perfectly with descriptions of Aegon IV, father of the rebellion. Varys has the targ silver hair and shaves it to conceal this.

They know R+L=J and mean to install Dany, Aegon, and Jon as the three heads of the dragon.

What do you think they're trying to do, and why are they trying to do it?




#2 Apple Martini

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 02:52 AM

I think Varys could be a Blackfyre, perhaps Serra's brother. I don't think Illyrio is a born Blackfyre; his relation is through marriage.

And I don't believe that either of them knows anything about Jon. Or for that matter any of the prophecies.

#3 The Mountain That Posts

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 05:05 AM

Just curious Apple Martini, or anyone really, but why does everyone think Aegon is a Blackfyre, or some other fake? (too lazy to read a hundred pages of that AEGON IS A FAKE thread, nor do I want spoilers from the sample TWoW chapters)

The only piece of evidence I can find within the first five books of Aegon being a fake are:

- Tyrion suspecting Aegon's fake during their Chevessae(spelling??) game, which could just be rational thinking.
- Dany's prophecy to beware the murmur's dragon. But, it didn't say murmur dragon... it said murmur's, which implies to me that Aegon IS a targ but he's just a puppet to Illyrion/Varys
- That whole "how can he be a Targ if he passes up the chance for dragons" thread, but it could just be he knows he won't end up with dragons going to Dany as a beggar.

Just curious, thanks!

#4 Starfell

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 05:25 AM

Just curious Apple Martini, or anyone really, but why does everyone think Aegon is a Blackfyre, or some other fake? (too lazy to read a hundred pages of that AEGON IS A FAKE thread, nor do I want spoilers from the sample TWoW chapters)

The only piece of evidence I can find within the first five books of Aegon being a fake are:

- Tyrion suspecting Aegon's fake during their Chevessae(spelling??) game, which could just be rational thinking.
- Dany's prophecy to beware the murmur's dragon. But, it didn't say murmur dragon... it said murmur's, which implies to me that Aegon IS a targ but he's just a puppet to Illyrion/Varys
- That whole "how can he be a Targ if he passes up the chance for dragons" thread, but it could just be he knows he won't end up with dragons going to Dany as a beggar.

Just curious, thanks!



There's another prophecy by Moqorro:

"Dragons," Moqorro said in the Common Tongue of Westeros... "Dragons old and young, true and false, bright and dark. And you. A small man with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all."

(emphasis mine)
These are the two phrases that imply that Aegon is false and possibly a Blackfyre respectively

#5 The Mountain That Posts

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 05:44 AM

These are the two phrases that imply that Aegon is false and possibly a Blackfyre respectively


Damn, totally missed that one. Thanks!

Any others?

I stick by my comment about the quote being "murmur's dragon" and not "murmur dragon" though. (Although, aren't Blackfyre's Targ bastards? I must admit that I never really paid much attention to pre-Robert's Rebellion era history in the books throughout either of my reads)

#6 The Dornishman's Wife

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 06:06 AM

I stick by my comment about the quote being "murmur's dragon" and not "murmur dragon" though.


Absolutely, it could just mean "Varys's dragon". But the fake dragon that mummers use in staged fights is also called "mummer's dragon", not "mummer dragon", so the interpretation "mummer's dragon = fake dragon" is quite solid. Note by the way that a mummer's dragon also appears in Dany's House of the Undying prophecy and seems to be involved in one of the three lies Dany needs to dispell (the other ones seem to be one about Stannis and one about a stone beast that could mean several things).

(Although, aren't Blackfyre's Targ bastards? I must admit that I never really paid much attention to pre-Robert's Rebellion era history in the books throughout either of my reads)


Indeed, their founder Daemon Blackfyre was the bastard of a Targ king with another Targ who wasn't the king's wife. He was later legitimized by his father.

ETA: If I may shamelessly link my own post, I have written a short recap/introduction into the basic picture of the Blackfyre stuff recently. No claim that it's in any way complete, but if you want to enter the fray, maybe it could be interesting to you.

Edited by The Dornishman's Wife, 03 January 2013 - 06:12 AM.


#7 Castellan

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 06:33 AM

Just curious Apple Martini, or anyone really, but why does everyone think Aegon is a Blackfyre, or some other fake? (too lazy to read a hundred pages of that AEGON IS A FAKE thread, nor do I want spoilers from the sample TWoW chapters)

The only piece of evidence I can find within the first five books of Aegon being a fake are:

- Tyrion suspecting Aegon's fake during their Chevessae(spelling??) game, which could just be rational thinking.
- Dany's prophecy to beware the murmur's dragon. But, it didn't say murmur dragon... it said murmur's, which implies to me that Aegon IS a targ but he's just a puppet to Illyrion/Varys
- That whole "how can he be a Targ if he passes up the chance for dragons" thread, but it could just be he knows he won't end up with dragons going to Dany as a beggar.

Just curious, thanks!


Well after reading about Aegon being fake in this forum, I went back and read the chapters from when Tyrion wakes up in Illyrio's villa till he meets Aegon, and I thought the clues were all laid out like a suit of boy's clothes: the costly boy's clothes (what child lived there?); Illyrio's penchant for blond girls with Lys blood and his account of his second marriage; the statue of a tall lithe blond youth which he says is himself when young - if so, he looked like 'Aegon' does today; the fact that 'the boy' apparently used to live with Illyrio (Illyrio has brought some of the sweets he used to like). Then when Tyrion is brought to Aegon it is like a double bluff where they pretend not to want him to know who Aegon is but Tyrion works it out himself, more convincing than if they just presented him and said 'by the way, Aegon didn't die'. The fact that whereas Dany and her brother had a 'provenance' this boy has none - he has only been with Connington since he was five - before that he seems to have been with Illyrio - and William Darry who rescued D&V was never told about him - why - is suspicious. So far, there has been no proof that he is Aegon and I wouldn't accept it without proof. I did notice on first reading that there were hints that Aegon was not the model prince they have tried to raise - not surprising - he seems a bit gormless (blurting out that Tyrion 'knew who he was') and tactless - when he tells Jon he likes his castle Jon thinks that he compares unfavourably to Rhaegar's charm.

Hope this makes sense and of course it could all be entirely wrong.

#8 The Mountain That Posts

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 06:43 AM

I think it's perfectly possible that he is a legit Targ, not even a Blackfyre, but he's just a bit of a idiot/child and is being used as a puppet. (In the same sense that Renly was being used as a puppet by the Tyrells.)

Since this is a thread about Varys and Illyrio, would someone with AGoT nearby be so kind as to post the entire Arya passage listening in to their convo under the Red Keep? And if anyone can find a youtube video of the scene from the show too, that'd be great.

I'm sure both have been dissected to death, but we might as well dissect them more while we have this thread, shall we? /lol.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':lol:' />

#9 The Mountain That Posts

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 06:47 AM

Oh yeah, back on WHAT IF AEGON IS TOTALLY FAKE THEORY, if it is revealed that Aegon isn't a real Targ then that could have the unpredicted result of Jon Snow's reveal of being R + L totally null. Both the fans who didn't already realize Jon's true parentage, and pretty much everyone in the Song of Ice & Fire world, would call bullshit if Aegon is revealed to be fake AND THEN "hey guiez, Jon Snow is a Targ"

Just something to think about, all you R + L = J theory fanatics.

#10 Scipio Africanus

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 06:53 AM

Ah yes my favourite eunuch and cheesemonger in one thread.

The only piece of evidence I can find within the first five books of Aegon being a fake are:

- Tyrion suspecting Aegon's fake during their Chevessae(spelling??) game, which could just be rational thinking.
- Dany's prophecy to beware the murmur's dragon. But, it didn't say murmur dragon... it said murmur's, which implies to me that Aegon IS a targ but he's just a puppet to Illyrion/Varys
- That whole "how can he be a Targ if he passes up the chance for dragons" thread, but it could just be he knows he won't end up with dragons going to Dany as a beggar.

Just curious, thanks!


There are numorous other subtle references riddled throughout the series foreshadowing a second dance of dragons, and that a Blackfyre pretender would be one of those dragons. The wonderful poster Tze has over time posted a number of these references, for example, the sign at an inn which depicted a black dragon turning red through rust after the sign fell. There are also numorous off comments made by characters that highten this suspecion (Illyrio's comment about that it didn't matter what colour the dragon was, a dragon is a dragon). Also Martin kind of empahizes that Tyrion wore old children's clothes (we officially don't know about Illyrio's children) and Illyrio's reaction when he parted with Tyrion was telling (Illyrio got emotional).

I believe Aegon is real. A real Blackfyre it is. Right now the best theory I've seen, is that Aegon is Illyrio's and Serra's son. Serra, being decended from the female Blackfyre line.
Aegon is also the murmur's dragon. And it's not because he's a fake dragon, but because he's the dragon sponsered by the murmurs (Varys was an ex-murmur reportedly).

The only questions I have is what Illyrio is doing with Serra's hands in his bedchamber (if true), why he gave the dragon eggs in the first place to such an untrustworthy party as the Dothraki (he could've given something else of great value) and he expected Dany to die anyway (if that is true), and if Varys' endgame really includes putting Aegon on the throne.

#11 Jon Pauletto

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 07:02 AM

Varys doesn't have valyrian features (eye colour for example), I don't think he's a blackfyre, ok, maybe his father or mother was from another ''country'' but I think he's not

Illyrio is more likely to be a blackfyre, I'm inclined to say

and Serra looked like a Blackfyre

#12 Makes No Sansa

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 07:40 AM

Maybe Serra was Illyrio's sister-wife.

#13 Scipio Africanus

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 07:48 AM

Illyrio is more likely to be a blackfyre, I'm inclined to say

and Serra looked like a Blackfyre


Serra looked like a Blackfyre, probably because she was one. Illyrio probably is who he is - a bravo waterdancer con-man from humble origins turned succesful merchant and magister.

The real question is really what Varys' background story really is. What he fed to Tyrion seems like a pack of lies on a reread, or at least not entirely true (or many details left out in his story).

#14 Jon Pauletto

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 07:52 AM

Serra looked like a Blackfyre, probably because she was one. Illyrio probably is who he is - a bravo waterdancer con-man from humble origins turned succesful merchant and magister.

The real question is really what Varys' background story really is. What he fed to Tyrion seems like a pack of lies on a reread, or at least not entirely true (or many details left out in his story).


Well, Varys is a misterious felllow, Illyrio is in the words of king bob, a cheese seller man, hahahaha

but Illyrio is misterious too, we don't know much about him, he could be a Blackfyre, the Blackfyres went to Essos 100 years, they are probably there for 4 generatins at least

#15 Fire Eater

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 03:13 PM

I think Varys could be a Blackfyre, perhaps Serra's brother. I don't think Illyrio is a born Blackfyre; his relation is through marriage.

And I don't believe that either of them knows anything about Jon. Or for that matter any of the prophecies.


I think the plan was to seat a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne who was Illyrio's son. The first part was to get the Targaryens overthrown. The second phase was to wipe out any remaining vestiges of the Targaryens: Viserys and Dany. Illyrio himself stated that he didn't expect Dany to survive long, and he expected Viserys to die in the Dothraki Sea.

Meanwhile, Aegon was raised by Jon Connington, having been told his whole life he was Rhaegar's son. They then planned a war in the Seven Kingdoms to restore the Targaryens (Aegon) to the Iron Throne.

#16 Ingelheim

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 03:17 PM

I believe Illyrio is a good person. He protected Dany and Aegon, and seems to be like a funny fat uncle.

#17 locke and key

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 04:20 PM

I think illyrio and varys in particular see the 7 kingdoms in the same way as the free cities both being from that region and want to be in charge of a peaceful, profitable and prosperous westeros that is why varys says he serves the realm as he wants peace and profit for all howver he and illyrio both also probably believe that thats how things would be if they ruled however due to the little social mobility in westeros they can only rule it through a powerful leader like aegon or dany so they want aegon to rule but for himm to marry dany so they have control of her dragons as well as her army of sellswords/unsullied/dothraki/freed slaves that way they would have control over the realm through an easily manipulated Aegonn with the strenght of the combined golden company dany's amry and dragons. they also are probably blackfyres as that seems to be the main reason why grrm would add the blackfyre story to the dunk and egg novels as dunk and egg never encounter the blackfyres themselves however I think they are men who put wisdom before their own personal feelings so they have given aegon to jon connington telling him he's rhaegars son rather than raise him themselves as a blackfyre as if he is raised to be like the lost lord he will be a good leader who can inspire loyalty in men by convincing them he's rhaegars son but he will also grow up to be very easily manipulated like connington is himself whereas if they'd raised him he would've been much clever and relaised varys and illyrio were really the ones ruling the kingdoms not him

#18 locke and key

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 04:22 PM

The only questions I have is what Illyrio is doing with Serra's hands in his bedchamber (if true), why he gave the dragon eggs in the first place to such an untrustworthy party as the Dothraki (he could've given something else of great value) and he expected Dany to die anyway (if that is true), and if Varys' endgame really includes putting Aegon on the throne.


Illyrio couldn't have known that the eggs would hatch as none had for a 100 years and he doesn't strike me as superstitious. the eggs were just an expensive wedding present. or the product of destiny if you believe the theory that dany is azor ahai and the dragons lightbringer.

I think varys' original plan was for young griff to reveal himself as aegon and therefore the rightful king by rules of sucession once a new targaryen dynasty enforced by drogo's khalasar and led by the stupid but easily manipulated Viserys who under their manipulation would give up the throne for young griff believing him to be the real aegon and not illyrio's son descended from daemon blackfyre. of course this failed when Viserys was killed but he then plotted to have aegon marry dany leading them to have a king they could easily manipulate on the iron throne who could crush any rebellion with the help of danys dragons and later her unsullied army however now that aegons gone west instead perhaps he believes now that young griffs fake claim to the throne of being rhaegars son seeming genuine as well as his popularity among the golden company and coupled with the peoples increasing frustration and dis-trust with the royal family after the war of 5 kings has stopped them from collecting the harvest before winter and the accusations against cersei by the faith wil give him popularity amongst the smallfolk the. strength of the golden company plus a probable alliance with dorne on the horizon (we know that one of the chapters grrm has already written a chapter for TWOW which features Arianne martell heading to the barracks of the golden company in the storm lands on her fathers orders to investigate Aegon) against the crumbling lannister-tyrell alliance which is also having to fight off stannis in the north, the ironborn in the west and soon sansa and the vale in the east each of these rebellions not very powerful at the moment. These 2 factors his popularity with the people and the strength and loyalty of his allies compare with his enemies who are weak and already having to deal with each other have perhaps concvinced varys and illyrio that with a bit of their help destroying his enemies (creating controversy by killing Kevan) young griff could now be in a position where he could win the throne without dany and then marry her and gain her armies and dragons if she does turn up. This means that soon they could be in a position where they have a blackfyre who can easily be controlled by them ruling the seven kingdoms with the love of the small folk and the strength of the golden company, Dorne (probably) and possibly dany's armies and dragons behind him: a position which Varys would surely want to be in. So Yes it does seem that aegon being on the throne is at the moment varys' endgame.

Serra's hands are still a bit of a mystery but it seems quite plausible that they are simply exatly what illyrio says they are; a slightly odd memento of his lost love.

Edited by locke and key, 03 January 2013 - 05:08 PM.


#19 Scipio Africanus

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 05:06 PM

I believe Illyrio is a good person. He protected Dany and Aegon, and seems to be like a funny fat uncle.


And I believe pigs can fly.

#20 theguyfromtheVale

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 05:38 PM

And I believe pigs can fly.


This. So much.

Or, put differently... Illyrio is a good person? You are aware that he collaborates with Varys, of all people, to such a degree that they seem to have strategy sessions?