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The Great Northern Conspiracy, part 3


nenya~

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I would love it if this theory were true, but I see one gaping hole: Jon has already turned down a similar offer. Stannis offered Jon to be the lord of winterfell, but Jon who was just elected Lord Commander turned it down. Jon is a Stark to the bone, R=L=J or Ned being the father regardless. He follows his duty and keeps honor.

He turned it down because Red Mel demanded he burn Winterfell's weirwood. Besides converting and therefor (logically) converting the North to that red god of hers.

That was something he rightly knew the populace wouldn't accept, besides that he himself follows the religion of the Old Gods.

Scipio is right: a big reason Jon eventually turned down Stannis's offer was because it would require the destruction of Winterfell's godswood. That was something that Jon just could not bring himself to do.

Another think to keep in mind about Jon refusing Stannis is Sansa, or, to be more precise, the fact that Jon felt that he would be usurping Sansa's place if he accepted Stannis's offer. However, that hurdle would no longer exist because, as I understand it, Robb's will explicitly disinherits Sansa. Jon -- assuming he survives the assassination attempt and the will is made public -- might still have some misgivings, but he might not want to go against his brother's final wishes. And, assuming he does gain the kingship, he can later step aside if he feels that Sansa or Rickon are the better option.

Also, Apple Martini, Dr. Pepper, and I recently started a thread that takes a closer look at how exactly Wyman Manderly found out that Osha and Rickon were on Skagos. The link is below.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/80225-osha-and-rickon-a-pit-stop-in-white-harbor/

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He turned it down because Red Mel demanded he burn Winterfell's weirwood. Besides converting and therefor (logically) converting the North to that red god of hers.

That was something he rightly knew the populace wouldn't accept, besides that he himself follows the religion of the Old Gods.

I understand that the part with the gods has to do with the reason he turned down the offer, but I believe that he would turn down being the King in the North. (Though if he does I will freak). I feel like Jon has too big of a role at the wall, he can't really leave the wall for warring.

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I understand that the part with the gods has to do with the reason he turned down the offer, but I believe that he would turn down being the King in the North. (Though if he does I will freak). I feel like Jon has too big of a role at the wall, he can't really leave the wall for warring.

He has already left the Wall by dying. His watch is over, for now. Who knows how and if he'll come back. The situation will have changed a lot by the time if he comes back I reckon.

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He has already left the Wall by dying. His watch is over, for now. Who knows how and if he'll come back. The situation will have changed a lot by the time if he comes back I reckon.

This. In addition, Winterfell is not Stannis' to give. (Afaic, he's not king until his butt is on the Iron Throne, and besides, the North only knows one king, and his name is Stark!) It is, or was, Robb's to give. Jon may feel differently about accepting Winterfell once he knows he was chosen by Robb. I have no idea how Rickon will fit into this mix, but remember what Roose said about child lords being doomed to failure. I just hope Rickon doesn't die -- no more dead Starks, EVAR!

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Another point to consider is yes the Freys do get most of the blame for RW, but many northern lords wonder how it is that Roose and his men survived, how he was made Warden of the North. Yes he did not admit to killing Robb, but in the eyes of many its a mystery. And I'm pretty sure Roose did send Robbett and Ser Helman to Duskendale in hopes to not only have them killed but to destroy the northern foot. Roose wanted to bleed off all loyalists and potential rivals.

Manderly certainly DOES seem to know something of the Bolton's involvement in the Red Wedding and tells Davos as much during their brief meeting in Whiteharbor. If there actually IS a conspiracy, it seems likely that he shared these suspicions with the rest of the Northern lords involved.

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Barbrey Dustin is weighing her options. She is using Harwood Stout as a go between for herself and Whoresbane Umber, who likely is an old war buddy of Stout's due to their similar age. The two of them talking would likely not be seen as strange. Faced with the idea that there might be a living Stark boy out there somewhere, that all the northern lords will rebel against the Boltons and the Freys as soon as their own are safe, all of that is being weighed against the chances of Roose Bolton and the eventuality of Ramsey. Roose should have known that he could not have Ramsey succeed him and expect to stay on top.

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I would love it if this theory were true, but I see one gaping hole: Jon has already turned down a similar offer. Stannis offered Jon to be the lord of winterfell, but Jon who was just elected Lord Commander turned it down. Jon is a Stark to the bone, R=L=J or Ned being the father regardless. He follows his duty and keeps honor.

To add to the points about why Jon turned down Stannis, I don't think the Northern Lords would offer Jon Kingship, they'd probably do what they did with Robb and proclaim him King, then it is what the people want, and we know that Jon is a sucker for doing what's good for his people.

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I absolutely love this Northern Conspiracy. The more I read about it, the more it makes me want to jump into the books and scream THE NORTH REMEMBERS, MADDAFAKKA'S! It just reminds me of the fact that the North isn't done yet, and that they still follow the Starks, they are still loyal to the Starks. That's just.. Beautiful.

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Barbrey Dustin is weighing her options.

I feel that the moment Dustin entered the Crypts, she made up her mind that team Roose wasn't the way to go. What or why she really entered the crypts I can't say, we'll have to see if we get an answer in WoW, but there's little doubt in my mind she won't be much help to Roose when he needs it the most.

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  • 1 month later...

I am trying to get caught up on this whole thing and still have some reading to get through, but so far I love what I have seen! Great job all. The Snowmen catch is brilliant!! I agree with the most recent comments that as soon as Lady Dustin saw those missing swords she must have realized that rumors about Bran and Rickon being alive were true. Her words to Theon about why she hates Ned Stark just seemed way petty to me and didn't ring true, at least not completely. She probably does harbor some resentment towards the Starks but her husband, who she claims is the reason she hates Ned because he didn't bring his bones back, was one of Ned's most trusted bannermen. It's also very clear that she detests Ramsey.

I do have another question about something else Lady Dustin says, and that is her comments on how she mistrusts the Maesters and believes there is some weird conspiracy going on at the Citadel. Has this been discussed at all and does this fit in with the Northern Conspiracy? If Manderly also doesn't trust his Maester it seems to be related. I haven 't read through all of the other two threads yet so please forgive me if this has already been asked and answered.

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Great stuff Nenya and all, I am glad this has been reopened with even newer catches.

About the snowmen - yes, one meaning could be Snow's men, another could be that they are the real Northeners, as in loyal.

About Barbrey - the more and more I read about her, the more I am sure she is on the Stark side. Another thing that I don't know whether has been discussed - first that she truly loved Brandon, then she hoped to Ned "but the Tullys got that one too", and more importantly - she had been married to her husband by her father and she clearly has the tone of "I settled to that guy", and they were married for only six months before he marched. I think it's safe to say that they were most likely not madly in love, at least she for him. And she gave him her father's finest steed (also their sigil) as a gift when he marched, and Ned returned said horse. If anything, maybe the horse even meant more to her than her husband's bones.

She said that she noted how Ned brought Lyanna's bones, but not her husband's. Well, she is a smart lady, I don't think she would ever get insulted by this. First, Lyanna is Ned's sister and a Stark, and second - the whole Rebellion started because of her. She was also Brandon's sister, and Brandon's cause to march and eventually lose his life. Of course hers bones "are the most important" and I don't think she found it reasonable how Ned should go to battle where 8 people besides Lyanna died and carry all of the men's bones around to distribute through the continent. It doesn't hold water. Barbrey is one of us, I tell you :commie:

ETA: Oh, and the "feral smile". Feral is a word most often associated with wolves. The words she says when making that smile are "The North remembers, Frey," which I don't think needs anything added...

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I feel that the moment Dustin entered the Crypts, she made up her mind that team Roose wasn't the way to go. What or why she really entered the crypts I can't say, we'll have to see if we get an answer in WoW, but there's little doubt in my mind she won't be much help to Roose when he needs it the most.

Could you elaborate a bit more as to why you think the crypts are so pivotal for Lady Dunstin? Is it the missing swords and what that might mean re Bran and Rickon? I can't decide one way or the other which team she's on.

And than you to nenya for starting another rendition of this thread, it really is great.

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I do think that Lady Dustin is inspecting to see if the swords really are gone, but I am not ready to declare her a full-blown conspiracist yet. I don't think she's decided for sure yet who to back, which only increases her importance.

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I have always contended that Lady Dustin's speech in the crypts and the stuff about the swords were nothing more than a diversion, the way a magician waves the colorful hankie around in one hand while he does something important with the other. LD had a mission, and she accomplished it. She made sure the crypt door was uncovered and openable. Yeah, there's going to be a force entering Winterfell through a secret passage from outside. Bran explicitly states in aGoT that the crypts extend beyond Winterfell itself.

TV series spoiler

Maester Luwin confirms that secret passages exist in a conversation with Theon.

Good catch on the snowmen. I'm not ready to judge was Jon's attitude will be just yet. We don't know how he will come back, what he may learn from BR or Bran while in a coma, or whether he will actually feel he's been released from his NW vows. The fact that Bran and Rickon are alive may invalidate the will, or lead it to be ignored. The mountain clans know Bran is alive, an I'm in the camp that believes he'll be leaving that cave soon, if he hasn't already left.

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I have always contended that Lady Dustin's speech in the crypts and the stuff about the swords were nothing more than a diversion, the way a magician waves the colorful hankie around in one hand while he does something important with the other. LD had a mission, and she accomplished it. She made sure the crypt door was uncovered and openable. Yeah, there's going to be a force entering Winterfell through a secret passage from outside. Bran explicitly states in aGoT that the crypts extend beyond Winterfell itself.

Do you have a quote for the crypts extending beyond Winterfell? Currently doing a reread of aGoT, and I must have missed it.

As for other secret passages, in aGoT, Bran says there's a passage in the inner wall going from the south gate to the north. However, I don't think its accessible from the outside of Winterfell, but it's seems like a good way for others to move around the castle secretly. I'm just not sure how well known some of these passages are. Bran says Maester Luwin doesn't know about that one (although Bran could be wrong). Anyway here's the quote:

It taught him Winterfell’s secrets too. The builders had not even leveled the earth; there were hills and valleys behind the walls of Winterfell. There was a covered bridge that went from the fourth floor of the bell tower across to the second floor of the rookery. Bran knew about that. And he knew you could get inside the inner wall by the south gate, climb three floors and run all the way around Winterfell through a narrow tunnel in the stone, and then come out on ground level at the north gate, with a hundred feet of wall looming over you. Even Maester Luwin didn’t know that, Bran was convinced.

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I don't think Jon wants to be king. His vows to the Watch are more important than a will, of Winterfell. Besides, what has northern independence gotten the north? Nothing but death and sorrow. Northern independence is the greatest catastrophe to befall the north since the last time the Others walked.

Consider the effects of northern independence:

1. The iron islanders ravaged the shore, occupying keeps, burning villages etc.

2. Winterfell burned to the ground.

3. The Starks nearly annihalated along with much of the chivalry of the north.

4. Roose Bolton was made Lord Paramount of the north.

And all that was during summer. Now winter is here. You think now is the time to betray Stannis and turn your backs on the Southern lords? With the Others and the white walkers coming, you want the north to stand alone against them? That's folly. Jon knows this. Keeping the alliance with Stannis in hopes of getting southern support for the war against the others is far more important than trying to become king of the north. Jon knows the real threat is north of the wall, and resuming independence is not the way to fight it.

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Scipio is right: a big reason Jon eventually turned down Stannis's offer was because it would require the destruction of Winterfell's godswood. That was something that Jon just could not bring himself to do.

I also think it is a tainted offer, a tainted offer would taint the person taking advantage of it, and Jon, already in a precarious position as a bastard and a potential defector from the NW has got to keep himself whiter than white, white as snow, in fact.

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