71 replies to this topic

[It Only Takes 500]

Randyll Tarly, hopefully is still a Targ loyalist, so will help them break the Reach from the inside.

[PatrickStormborn]

AnotherHedgeKnight, on 04 February 2013 - 09:00 AM, said:

I was actually referring to Dany's dragons which means Aegon marries Arianne now and Dany when she arrives but seeing as he can marry more then once anyway my point is still invalid.

It's still what i expect him to do

Do you honestly expect Daenerys to be the second wife of a pretender?

Hell no. If anyone's gonna practice polygamy, it will be Daenerys herself.

[armidil0]

The Vale wouldn't join Aegon, and Aegon could never take hte Vale without Dragons at this point. He could try and marry into it, but there are no females that "own" it anymore, so he would have to marry SR or Harry the Heir, and I don't think Westeros is that progressive. His best bet is Dorne, nad convincing the smaller Reach lords to come his way. But even then its only a maybe with hte ironborn knocking on their door. So his best bet would be to take his army, and march around the Stormlands, and then the Reach while they wait fro Dorne to back them up, and go to castle to castle and ask for their surrencder until people just start coming to you.

[George W. Lannister]

Assuming that Aegon is a Blackfyre, he and the Golden Company will move for the Reach before anything else. The idea:

A few of the exiled house names serving in the GC are traced back to both the Riverlands and the Reach.

Riverlands: Mudd, Strong, Lothston, Tristian Rivers

Reach: Peake, Strickland (maybe??), Franklin Flowers

Unknown: Mandrake, others

What jumped out at me is the name Peake.  They play a prominent role in the attempted second Blackfyre Rebellion that is discussed in the Dunk and Egg novella "The Mystery Knight".  In that story, Gorman Peake is an extremely loyal Blackfyre supporter, and also very bitter after his house had two of their three castles stripped of them after the first BF rebellion.

Between what we know about both the Peake family and Franklin Flowers, and given that the Riverlands are completely ravaged right now, heading to the Reach and attempting to roust support for a "Targeryen" from those BF supporter families might be a subtle giveaway throughout the 6th book of who Aegon really is.

[Theralion]

Why would Doran marry Arianne off to Aegon if he has doubts about who he really is? Would he risk Dorne on the hope that he's real? Dorne is the least populated kingdom and is not known for being victorious outside its own borders, always being pushed back. Doran even admits that 10,000 mercs won't take the seven kingdoms.

[The Dragon has three heads]

It's going to come down to how many hands he as a baby went through, and if Lemore turns our to be one of Elias hand maids or ashara herself.
There's just no way to prove it otherwise.

[Tini]

Theralion, on 06 February 2013 - 10:11 PM, said:

Why would Doran marry Arianne off to Aegon if he has doubts about who he really is? Would he risk Dorne on the hope that he's real? Dorne is the least populated kingdom and is not known for being victorious outside its own borders, always being pushed back. Doran even admits that 10,000 mercs won't take the seven kingdoms.

He may have doubts that Aegon is real, but he may doubt at the same time that Aegon is fake. He may never know for sure.

Some people believe he'll want a marriage because he wants one of his children on the Iron Throne. Arianne and Viserys, Quentyn and Daenerys ... those attempts fell through. If Aegon is strong enough to successfully take the throne, Arianne and Aegon might give him what he is looking for.

I don't think his nephew Aegon will marry Arianne, though, just to gain Dornish support. Doran might actually have better luck in pushing such a marriage if he can prove that Aegon is fake. In that case, Aegon might marry her to buy Dorne's silence.

I think Doran might go that route if he blames Daenerys for Quentyn's death. Dany is not likely to ally herself with / marry an imposter, so Aegon might opt to secure Dornish support by marrying Arianne.  Dorne may not be strong, but an alliance with Aegon might make them strong enough to oppose Dany.

[Veltigar]

I have a pretty extensive threat about the first part of tWoW (http://asoiaf.wester...art-of-the-wow/) => I'll give a very short summary of a part of it:

Well, I think that the Ironborn are going to take most of the reach. Faegon seeing that the Tyrells are severly weakened will marry Arianne to get the Martells army. He'll take what is left of the Stormlands and than expend west into the Reach (I can see  many of the GC friends rallying to Faegon and his Dornish aides since the Tyrells aren't able to protect them anymore and they don't want to fall into the hands of the Ironborn).

[LucionLannister]

I think in all likely hood he's going to have to turn west to Highgarden or Oldtown. Even with the Golden Company and Dornish armies, I don't think he has the strength to take Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly's armies, especially since the required siege would give the Lannisters to bring in a host from the Riverlands or Lannisport to help and the Garlan Tyrell could march up a sizeable army from Highgarden to further aid King's Landing. Basic point, the Golden Company and Dorne lack the power to take on Highgarden and Casterly Rock. He either needs to draw them into the Reach and try to take them seperately or by surprise, and try to win over Stormlords or some lords of the Reach (possibly by helping defend from the Ironmen).

I also find a marriage with Arianne Martell very unlikely. If the Martells do believe Aegon is Aegon Targaryen, his blood relation (Being Princess Elia's son) should be enough to win Prince Doran's support against House Lannister (Elia's killers) and House Tyrell (their historical rivals). And in ADWD Jon Connington seems to make it pretty clear that he wants Aegon to marry Daenerys Targaryen. So I find a marriage unlikely.

[Nelapsi]

LucionLannister, on 07 February 2013 - 10:36 PM, said:

I think in all likely hood he's going to have to turn west to Highgarden or Oldtown. Even with the Golden Company and Dornish armies, I don't think he has the strength to take Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly's armies, especially since the required siege would give the Lannisters to bring in a host from the Riverlands or Lannisport to help and the Garlan Tyrell could march up a sizeable army from Highgarden to further aid King's Landing. Basic point, the Golden Company and Dorne lack the power to take on Highgarden and Casterly Rock. He either needs to draw them into the Reach and try to take them seperately or by surprise, and try to win over Stormlords or some lords of the Reach (possibly by helping defend from the Ironmen).

I also find a marriage with Arianne Martell very unlikely. If the Martells do believe Aegon is Aegon Targaryen, his blood relation (Being Princess Elia's son) should be enough to win Prince Doran's support against House Lannister (Elia's killers) and House Tyrell (their historical rivals). And in ADWD Jon Connington seems to make it pretty clear that he wants Aegon to marry Daenerys Targaryen. So I find a marriage unlikely.

This.

[firepoet]

LucionLannister, on 07 February 2013 - 10:36 PM, said:

I also find a marriage with Arianne Martell very unlikely. If the Martells do believe Aegon is Aegon Targaryen, his blood relation (Being Princess Elia's son) should be enough to win Prince Doran's support against House Lannister (Elia's killers) and House Tyrell (their historical rivals). And in ADWD Jon Connington seems to make it pretty clear that he wants Aegon to marry Daenerys Targaryen. So I find a marriage unlikely.

Yeah, this. People often mention that Tyrion convinced Aegon to head to Westeros early, but they don't often mention why. Aegon thought Dany wouldn't marry him without question, but Tyrion told him that Dany might be wary of him since he has a better claim. She has a bigger army, and she's very independent, so she might not want to marry someone with a better claim (implying she'd be regulated to being the King's wife.) So Aegon decides to invade Westeros and win some victories so he can come to her as her equal, in order to win her hand in marriage. The whole point of this early invasion is to marry Dany.

[Jon Icefyre]

firepoet, on 07 February 2013 - 11:29 PM, said:

Yeah, this. People often mention that Tyrion convinced Aegon to head to Westeros early, but they don't often mention why. Aegon thought Dany wouldn't marry him without question, but Tyrion told him that Dany might be wary of him since he has a better claim. She has a bigger army, and she's very independent, so she might not want to marry someone with a better claim (implying she'd be regulated to being the King's wife.) So Aegon decides to invade Westeros and win some victories so he can come to her as her equal, in order to win her hand in marriage. The whole point of this early invasion is to marry Dany.

Although I agree with most of what you said I don't think Aegon will necessarily keep that mindset.  Yes the plan was to originally marry Dany but what you failed to mention was the biggest reason for marrying Dany was not the size of her army.  The biggest reason for marrying Dany was that it would validate him as a Targaryen as the realm would see him married to Dany and her acknowledgement of him being her Targ husband would be the confirmation the realm would need of him being Aegon Targaryen.  But if Aegon is able to gather a considerably large amount of support to the point where he's an alliance or two away from taking the iron throne(which I think he will do by the end of the book) then marriage to someone other than Dany to ensure an alliance might be the only option.  Also if he gathers enough support to take the Irone throne while Dany is away across the narrow sea doing god knows what, Aegon might not think a marrigae with Dany is the same necessity that it once was(before he landed in Westeros) as he would already have a considerable amount of the realm already accepting him as Aegon Targaryen so in the end he wouldn't need Dany to validate his claim, and I honestly think that's what's going to happen.  When Aegon and Dany finally do meet it will be as king and queen, but it won't be as husband and wife it will be as enemies(second dance of dragons war).

Edited by Jon Icefyre, 08 February 2013 - 01:01 AM.