112 replies to this topic

[The Rise of Dorne]

Varys doesn't make any sense. Based on his actions, no coherent plan can be discerned.

Illyrio expected Dany to die.  Varys couldn't have known Dany's dragon eggs would hatch.  Viserys was crazy.  The Dothraki were never very likely to cross the ocean and invade Westeros.  Are we really to believe Varys' entire plans have hinged on 4 guys on a raft?  What is this giligan's island? "Aegon" is supposed to be safe, in a pirate strewn, disease encrusted, war torn, corner of the world.  Is that really where you store your most valuable asset?  

Varys says he cares for innocents (when talking to Ned or Kevan) but murders children constantly to run his spy ring.

Why would Varys help a faceless man on mission to the Citadel to learn secrets about killing dragons? How did Jaquen get into the black cells?

Either Varys' plan to put Aegon on the throne is terrible or Varys is working for someone else.

Varys is not working for Littlefinger or the Lannisters.  He's not working for the Starks.  He doesn't seem to be working for Aegon's benefit, leaving him on that raft for 15 years. He wasn't doing Dany any favors marrying her to Drogo at 13.  What faction is left?  

The Others.  

Maybe it was the Great Other Varys heard in that fire where his nuts were roasted.  Maybe Varys has worked out a deal like Craster, and that's why he runs through so many children spies.  

(either that or Varys is working for Euron, there's no one else left.)

Edited by The Rise of Dorne, 26 January 2013 - 05:10 PM.

[Greg1]

Sorry,  I'm sort of a noob.  When did Varys murder children?  I know he uses children as spies and stuff, but I must have missed where he kills them.

[Apple Martini]

Greg1, on 26 January 2013 - 03:49 AM, said:

Sorry,  I'm sort of a noob.  When did Varys murder children?  I know he uses children as spies and stuff, but I must have missed where he kills them.

Let's put it this way: Little Birds don't retire. You picking up what I'm putting down?

As to the OP, Varys is Team Blackfyre and it doesn't have to be any more sinister than that.

[The Rise of Dorne]

<p>

Greg1, on 26 January 2013 - 03:49 AM, said:

Sorry,  I'm sort of a noob.  When did Varys murder children?  I know he uses children as spies and stuff, but I must have missed where he kills them.

He tells illyrio he needs young literate kids because they die easier, and he needs 50 new ones, in Game of Thrones, Arya III.

[Apple Martini]

The Rise of Dorne, on 26 January 2013 - 03:52 AM, said:

He tells illyrio he needs young literate kids because they die easier, and he needs 50 new ones, in Game of Thrones, Arya III.

Pretty sure that's not quiiiiiite how he words it. But yeah, it's implied that he, uh, "goes through them."

Edited by Apple Martini, 26 January 2013 - 03:54 AM.

[The Rise of Dorne]

Apple Martini, on 26 January 2013 - 03:51 AM, said:

Let's put it this way: Little Birds don't retire. You picking up what I'm putting down?

As to the OP, Varys is Team Blackfyre and it doesn't have to be any more sinister than that.

When did I say it was sinister?

I don't know why I would think Aegon is any more likely to be a Blackfyre than a Targaryen.   And why would Varys be on team Blackfyre?  And why should he bother putting them on the throne when they're all weak and pathetic and stuff?  What's in it for Varys?

ETA: it still doesn't change the problem.  If Varys is a blackfyre and cares about blackfyres and Aegon is important to him, why put Aegon on a raft with only 3 men for protection, in plague filled, pirate infested swamp.  If that really is Varys's plan to put Aegon  on the throne, then Varys is incompetent.  Especially, since he didn't get Dorne on board before hand.

Edited by The Rise of Dorne, 26 January 2013 - 05:00 AM.

[The Rise of Dorne]

Apple Martini, on 26 January 2013 - 03:54 AM, said:

Pretty sure that's not quiiiiiite how he words it. But yeah, it's implied that he, uh, "goes through them."

well Illyrio says older ones won't die so easy. and varys says no younger is safer, he can't treat them gently because of the risk.

[chrisdaw]

Or the younger they are the more dependant, unnoticeable, easily controlled, loyal and less likely to think for themselves they are.

Oh and the younger they are the smaller they're likely to be and GRRM made sure to mention in both Jaime and Tyrion chapters that size would be an impediment to traversing the tunnels.

Edited by chrisdaw, 26 January 2013 - 04:57 AM.

[Scipio Africanus]

Apple Martini, on 26 January 2013 - 03:51 AM, said:

Let's put it this way: Little Birds don't retire. You picking up what I'm putting down?

As to the OP, Varys is Team Blackfyre and it doesn't have to be any more sinister than that.

While I doubt Varys is working with/for/against the Others, there are two ways Martin's biggest troll in the story is heading for. Either Varys is a Blackfyre loyalist who is seeking restoration of his house, or he's somehow connected with Jaq's mission to the Citadel. At any rate I have a feeling Varys' endgame might be slightly different than that of Illyrio's.

Edited by Scipio Africanus, 26 January 2013 - 05:07 AM.

[Ramsay Blow]

Who knows what Varys is truly up to?  Easily one of the biggest questions in these books but, personally, I hope he comes out on top.  It's fun watching him play everyone.

Also, I kind of believe he's a blackfyre supporter.   Many forums on here talking about it.

[therealbando]

Scipio Africanus, on 26 January 2013 - 05:06 AM, said:

While I doubt Varys is working with/for/against the Others, there are two ways Martin's biggest troll in the story is heading for. Either Varys is a Blackfyre loyalist who is seeking restoration of his house, or he's somehow connected with Jaq's mission to the Citadel. At any rate I have a feeling Varys' endgame might be slightly different than that of Illyrio's.

Agree. For me it always seemed that Illyrio is somehow inferior to Varys, and that Varys is the one calling the shots

[chrisdaw]

As for why Varys "goes through" little birds, the answer is most likely also in the Jaime chapter. In searching the tunnel didn't they lose one and another was injured? Bottomless pits, a maze of tunnels you could get lost forever in, Tyrion I think counted several hundred rungs on his way up to the tower, a slip off from 20 to 30 could be fatal. Besides ensuring their secrecy, having their tongues removed may also serve to stop them screaming when inevitably a few fall or get lost.

[lightbringer333]

i think varys knows about jons parents. may be he is mastermind behind all this.  when ned was in dungeon he tells ned to take nights watch so that when ned goes to wall he culd tell the truth to jon about his parents. also he is working for aegon and dany. actually he didnt try to kill dany. he just wanted provoke khal drogo to declare war on westeros and cross the narrow sea.  he wants targaryen to attack kings landing from all side to regain the throne. he is a targaryen loyalist. he got his all plan a,b,c ready. he also prepared for contigency plans.

[Scipio Africanus]

lightbringer333, on 26 January 2013 - 05:25 AM, said:

i think varys knows about jons parents. may be he is mastermind behind all this.  when ned was in dungeon he tells ned to take nights watch so that when ned goes to wall he culd tell the truth to jon about his parents.

Varys doesn't know about Jon or Jon would've been dead a long time ago and probably never would've seen his first name year.

The only way it could've happened is when Eddard wanted to write a letter to Jon. But he decided not to when Varys blatantly said he'd read its contents. And again if Varys knew Cercei would know soon enough and she'd definitely send an army of assassins to the Wall to kill off Jon.

Varys wanted Eddard sent to the Wall to slow down the war between lion and wolf, so to give Illyrio more time to ship Viserys, the GC and 30k Dothraki screamers to Westeros.

[Ramsay Blow]

Scipio Africanus, on 26 January 2013 - 05:29 AM, said:

Varys doesn't know about Jon or Jon would've been dead a long time ago and probably never would've seen his first name year.

The only way it could've happened is when Eddard wanted to write a letter to Jon. But he decided not to when Varys blatantly said he'd read its contents. And again if Varys knew Cercei would know soon enough and she'd definitely send an army of assassins to the Wall to kill off Jon.

Varys wanted Eddard sent to the Wall to slow down the war between lion and wolf, so to give Illyrio more time to ship Viserys, the GC and 30k Dothraki screamers to Westeros.

Nobody knows Varys' end-game so no way to tell if he knows about Jon Snow or if he would want him dead.   I do agree that Ned was sent to wall to prolong things though.

[theguyfromtheVale]

Ramsay Blow, on 26 January 2013 - 05:42 AM, said:

Nobody knows Varys' end-game so no way to tell if he knows about Jon Snow or if he would want him dead.   I do agree that Ned was sent to wall to prolong things though.

If you manage to read between the lines, a big part of Varys' endgame becomes clear in ADWD. "Power resides where people believe it resides" and "red or black, a dragon is still a dragon", and many more of these nuggets... Varys is on team Blackfyre.

[The Rise of Dorne]

Scipio Africanus, on 26 January 2013 - 05:29 AM, said:

While I doubt Varys is working with/for/against the Others, there are two ways Martin's biggest troll in the story is heading for. Either Varys is a Blackfyre loyalist who is seeking restoration of his house, or he's somehow connected with Jaq's mission to the Citadel. At any rate I have a feeling Varys' endgame might be slightly different than that of Illyrio's.

I think the question still remains, if Varys is a blackfyre and he really wants aegon, then why is his plan so shitty?

However, if Varys is working for the Others using the facelessmen to get rid of dragons would still be congruent. But then, why give Dany the eggs in the first place? Since having Jaquen in place implies a fore knowledge of dragons, given Jaquen's Citadel scavenger hunt.

Honestly I did just come up with this "theory" (and was kind of joking, at first) but its much better than Varys being a secret blackfyre. But I can't believe he Varys ever believed he'd get the Dothraki to Westeros or that he could take over with 10,000 men. Varys having been working for the Others all this time... would be so so so much better, think about it.  His castration story, his claims to be causing chaos, his dislike of magic, since that's what's needed to stop the Others. His nonsensical plans with various scions hidden away, Gendry, Tyrion, Dany, Aegon.  It would finally make sense.  All of it.  And we know the Others can be bargained with from Craster. If Craster was 60 Varys could even be one of his sons, raised by the Others.   Suddenly the Others haven't just be the peripheral force, separate from the Game of THrones, they've been in the think of it, for years.

Edited by The Rise of Dorne, 26 January 2013 - 07:52 AM.

[chrisdaw]

But then, why did he kill Jon?

[The Rise of Dorne]

was that @ me?  Why did who kill Jon?  Also, he hasn't been killed.

[theguyfromtheVale]

The Rise of Dorne, on 26 January 2013 - 07:49 AM, said:

I think the question still remains, if Varys is a blackfyre and he really wants aegon, then why is his plan so shitty? 1

However, if Varys is working for the Others using the facelessmen to get rid of dragons would still be congruent. But then, why give Dany the eggs in the first place? Since having Jaquen in place implies a fore knowledge of dragons, given Jaquen's Citadel scavenger hunt.

Honestly I did just come up with this "theory" (and was kind of joking, at first) but its much better than Varys being a secret blackfyre. But I can't believe he Varys ever believed he'd get the Dothraki to Westeros or that he could take over with 10,000 men. 2 Varys having been working for the Others all this time... would be so so so much better, think about it.  His castration story, his claims to be causing chaos, his dislike of magic, since that's what's needed to stop the Others. 3 His nonsensical plans with various scions hidden away, Gendry, Tyrion, Dany, Aegon.  It would finally make sense.  All of it.  And we know the Others can be bargained with from Craster. If Craster was 60 Varys could even be one of his sons, raised by the Others.   Suddenly the Others haven't just be the peripheral force, separate from the Game of THrones, they've been in the think of it, for years. 4

1. How exactly is Varys' plan shitty? He's causing unrest in Westeros to discredit the ruling dynasty so people will accept the alternative he has stashed away (fAegon) more easily. The Dothraki are only part of the plan in order to cause unrest, they are not supposed to take over. Robert would have two choices: either hiding in his castles, discrediting him as a weak and incompetent king. Or facing the Dothraki on the battlefield, which would be quite risky, because it plays into the Dothraki's strengths. As for Aegon's safety: Yes, there are pirates on that shore. But usually, pirates don't kill people, they rob them. If you give them your goods, you're fine. And Illyrio would always be able to buy fAegon from slavery. Or to turn the question around: Given the assumption that Varys is a Blackfyre loyalist, what else would you propose?

2. As I said in 1., the Dothraki are not central to Varys' plan. They are one possible way of causing unrest in Westeros to discredit the current rulers so people will more easily swallow fAegon as their saviour.

3. Is really magic needed to stop the Others? Where did you get that idea? There hasn't been much magic for 150 years, a perfect time frame for the Others to attack, don't you agree? Instead they waited until magic got stronger to attack? That doesn't make sense - unless the Others themselves profit from heightened magic levels. Which would mean that no magic would be better for fighting them. And indeed, I don't see how magic has ever been truly beneficial in this series.

4. The general problem with your crackpot theory (no offense meant, I've had my share of those over the years, too) is that there's no established connection between Varys and the Others whatsoever, and your few weak links are even built on massive speculation (like magic being needed to defeat the Others).