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Osha and Rickon: A Pit Stop in White Harbor?


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This is a thread in conjunction with redviper and Dr. Pepper.

So we all know the deal that Davos cuts with Wyman Manderly and Robett Glover. Go retrieve Rickon Stark and his direwolf from Skagos, and Wyman will swear for Stannis.

Anyone who follows my writings on the so-called Great Northern Conspiracy knows that I am extremely skeptical of this exchange and am not at all convinced that the Manderlys intend to make good on the promise to Stannis. I had wondered for a while how and why this nagged at me so, and a discussion with the above posters helped me figure it out.

We're told that Wex, Theon's ironborn squire, is the one who tips off Manderly and Glover as to where Osha and Rickon are. We can piece together that it's Skagos, based on Davos' reaction and the vision of Shaggydog fighting a "unicorn." But here's the thing: Wex is a mute who is also illiterate at that point. He's also ironborn, not from the North. So how in the world is he expected to know how to get to White Harbor (in theory he can't even ask for directions), much less convey who he is and what he knows to Wyman Manderly (who by all logic he should never be able to even get near) and Robett Glover? Something is off here. It also beggars belief that Osha, a wildling, and Shaggydog, a direwolf, would not know that they were being followed.

If we go back to the last chapter of Clash of Kings, Luwin and Osha have a discussion about where to go with the boys. Luwin is adamant that they must be separated. Osha asks about Cerwyn, but Luwin shoots that down and says that's no good, and neither is the east, Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte, the Stoney Shore or Torrhen's Square. He also rattles off a list of dead or compromised lords. Osha asks where then, and Luwin says White Harbor right off the bat, followed by the Umbers.

The two parties split up and leave through separate gates. While Osha and Rickon are already gone when Jojen says they're going north, it stands to reason that Osha and Rickon must have gone the opposite way or else the parties probably would've come into contact with each other.

What if Osha actually traveled to the place Luwin suggested first: White Harbor? If you look at the map, if they headed toward Skagos by land — east to the shore and then to catch a ship — they'd go right where Luwin said not to: into Bolton territory.

Say that Wex did follow them when they left, but again, implausible that he'd be able to hide from Osha and the wolf. Perhaps they caught him and, knowing who he was and/or not thinking him to be a threat, allowed him to continue with them. Or perhaps Wex did evade the wolf and just followed them to White Harbor.

Manderly tells Davos that White Harbor is full of people he can't trust, including his own maester. What if Osha and Rickon arrived in White Harbor — along with Wex — and Manderly, though glad to learn that both boys are alive, realizes that he can't keep Rickon in White Harbor without anyone noticing. Perhaps being familiar with Skagos through trading, or knowing about a Stark family connection on Skagos (a possibility that people have mentioned before), Manderly opts to send them there rather than risk them getting caught in White Harbor or somewhere else in the North.

But at some point, Rickon needs to be brought back, and by that time, the Boltons are more powerful and the seas around Skagos more dangerous (think of the shipwreck that Sam sees). Manderly can use the opportunity of having Davos in custody to send him on the retrieval, using the story of Wex "following them" and "discovering" where they went, to hide the fact that he's known all along that the boys were alive. It's also possible that Osha guessed that if she was at White Harbor, Bran might be at Last Hearth. Perhaps the Manderlys and Umbers powwowed to compare notes, and while Bran was obviously not at Last Hearth, it would give the Umbers the opportunity to also know that Bran and Rickon were both alive.

Basically, between the crannogmen, the Glovers, the Umbers, the mountain clans and the Manderlys, I think the only people in the North who still think Bran and Rickon are dead are Jon and Stannis.

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This is a thread in conjunction with redviper and Dr. Pepper.

So we all know the deal that Davos cuts with Wyman Manderly and Robett Glover. Go retrieve Rickon Stark and his direwolf from Skagos, and Wyman will swear for Stannis.

Anyone who follows my writings on the so-called Great Northern Conspiracy knows that I am extremely skeptical of this exchange and am not at all convinced that the Manderlys intend to make good on the promise to Stannis. I had wondered for a while how and why this nagged at me so, and a discussion with the above posters helped me figure it out.

We're told that Wex, Theon's ironborn squire, is the one who tips off Manderly and Glover as to where Osha and Rickon are. We can piece together that it's Skagos, based on Davos' reaction and the vision of Shaggydog fighting a "unicorn." But here's the thing: Wex is a mute who is also illiterate at that point. He's also ironborn, not from the North. So how in the world is he expected to know how to get to White Harbor (in theory he can't even ask for directions), much less convey who he is and what he knows to Wyman Manderly (who by all logic he should never able to even get near) and Robett Glover? Something is off here. It also beggars belief that Osha, a wildling, and Shaggydog, a direwolf, would not know that they were being followed.

If we go back to the last chapter of Clash of Kings, Luwin and Osha have a discussion about where to go with the boys. Luwin is adamant that they must be separated. Osha asks about Cerwyn, but Luwin shoots that down and says that's no good, and neither is the east, Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte, the Stoney Shore or Torrhen's Square. He also rattles off a list of dead or compromised lords. Osha asks where then, and Luwin says White Harbor right off the bat, followed by the Umbers.

The two parties split up and leave through separate gates. While Osha and Rickon are already gone when Jojen says they're going north, it stands to reason that Osha and Rickon must have gone the opposite way or else the parties probably would've come into contact with each other.

What if Osha actually traveled to the place Luwin suggested first: White Harbor? If you look at the map, if they headed toward Skagos by land — east to the shore and then to catch a ship — they'd go right where Luwin said not to: into Bolton territory.

Say that Wex did follow them when they left, but again, implausible that he'd be able to hide from Osha and the wolf. Perhaps they caught him and, knowing who he was and/or not thinking him to be a threat, allowed him to continue with them. Or perhaps Wex did evade the wolf and just followed them to White Harbor.

Manderly tells Davos that White Harbor is full of people he can't trust, including his own maester. What if Osha and Rickon arrived in White Harbor — along with Wex — and Manderly, though glad to learn that both boys are alive, realizes that he can't keep Rickon in White Harbor without anyone noticing. Perhaps being familiar with Skagos through trading, or knowing about a Stark family connection on Skagos (a possibility that people have mentioned before), Manderly opts to send them there rather than risk them getting caught in White Harbor or somewhere else in the North.

But at some point, Rickon needs to be brought back, and by that time, the Boltons are more powerful and the seas around Skagos more dangerous (think of the shipwreck that Sam sees). Manderly can use the opportunity of having Davos in custody to send him on the retrieval, using the story of Wex "following them" and "discovering" where they went, to hide the fact that he's known all along that the boys were alive. It's also possible that Osha guessed that if she was at White Harbor, Bran might be at Last Hearth. Perhaps the Manderlys and Umbers powwowed to compare notes, and while Bran was obviously not at Last Hearth, it would give the Umbers the opportunity to also know that Bran and Rickon were both alive.

Basically, between the crannogmen, the Glovers, the Umbers, the mountain clans and the Manderlys, I think the only people in the North who still think Bran and Rickon are dead are Jon and Stannis.

:agree:

Thanks for putting this together for us, Apple! Something is definitely afoot at White Harbor.

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Basically, between the crannogmen, the Glovers, the Umbers, the mountain clans and the Manderlys, I think the only people in the North who still think Bran and Rickon are dead are Jon and Stannis.

And Sam! He knows.

I think the only other group who doesn't know are the Freys. How will they react when they find out? Does the finding out create friction between the Bolton/Frey alliance?

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And Sam! He knows.

I think the only other group who doesn't know are the Freys. How will they react when they find out? Does the finding out create friction between the Bolton/Frey alliance?

And the Freys and Manderlys are about to be sent out together to fight Stannis. Hmm.

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It's crazy how much sense this makes, but it would mean that Manderly probably didn't write the bastards letter. He wouldn't have to if he had Rickon all along, it would also mean that he is using Stannis to clear out the Bolton's or at least weaken them enough to make the big reveal of Rickon.

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While I do agree that Manderly sent them to Skagos (how else would they possibly get there?) I don't think that there is a grand conspiracy to remake a King in the North at the moment. I think this is more of a long term goal. What is needed in the immediate is vengeance for the sack of Winterfell against House Bolton, vengeance for the murder of Robb against House Frey, and vengeance for the murder of Ned Stark against the Lannisters. I don't necessarily believe that all the North knows that Rickon and Bran are alive. While I do think that the Liddle in the cave probably told the other Liddles, who is to say the Liddles told the other clans? Do the crannogmen really know that Bran is alive? Communicating with Howland Reed has never been the easiest thing. Some of this is good, but some is assumption.

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And Sam! He knows.

I think the only other group who doesn't know are the Freys. How will they react when they find out? Does the finding out create friction between the Bolton/Frey alliance?

I had completely forgotten that Sam also knows about Bran and Rickong being alive. And Gilly knows, too!

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It's crazy how much sense this makes, but it would mean that Manderly probably didn't write the bastards letter. He wouldn't have to if he had Rickon all along, it would also mean that he is using Stannis to clear out the Bolton's or at least weaken them enough to make the big reveal of Rickon.

It occurred to me that Rickon might not be on Skagos at all, but the wolf dream seems to confirm it. Other than the fun crackpot theory that Jon's being lured to Winterfell to be crowned, I never considered that Manderly would have written the Pink Letter.

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While I do think that the Liddle in the cave probably told the other Liddles, who is to say the Liddles told the other clans?

When they are traveling through clan territory, Bran notes that the clansmen know they are there. Plus, Liddle told Bran that the Bastard's boys were paying silver for wolf pelts and for word of a certain walking dead. I think it's a good presumption that the mountain clans know the boys are alive. In fact, I think it's probably pretty much an open secret in most of the North.

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I like it a lot, very well thought out. A little hard for me to believe, it's a rather bit complex for something that I think is quite simple. The Ironborn may well be adept at sneaking, Theon Turncloak did it well enough. I don't see necessarily why it couldn't have happened the way it is said to have happened in the book. That being said, coming from Apple Martini I'm more inclined to believe it. :)

The other thing is, though... sending Rickon to Skagos to keep him safe? That sounds to me like sending someone to Camp Crystal Lake to keep their throat from getting slit. Skagos doesn't seem to have a reputation for safety, it's full of cannibals and wild beasts. Rickon may have a direwolf but he's still a child, after all, and may look quite delicious to a cannibal.

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While I do agree that Manderly sent them to Skagos (how else would they possibly get there?) I don't think that there is a grand conspiracy to remake a King in the North at the moment. I think this is more of a long term goal. What is needed in the immediate is vengeance for the sack of Winterfell against House Bolton, vengeance for the murder of Robb against House Frey, and vengeance for the murder of Ned Stark against the Lannisters. I don't necessarily believe that all the North knows that Rickon and Bran are alive. While I do think that the Liddle in the cave probably told the other Liddles, who is to say the Liddles told the other clans? Do the crannogmen really know that Bran is alive? Communicating with Howland Reed has never been the easiest thing. Some of this is good, but some is assumption.

Actually, there is a clue that Howland knows that, at least, Meera and Jojen got out (implication being that Rickon and Bran are also alive). Luwin is telling Theon that the Reed kids are valuable hostages, because Howland wouldn't engage the ironborn at Moat Cailin if his kids were at risk. If they were hostages, Howland must "stay his hand."

Fast forward to when Theon goes to Moat Cailin to accept the surrender of the ironborn there. It turns out that the crannogmen have been guerilla-attacking the ironborn there. Howland thus appears free to attack the ironborn at will. How could he do that? He can do it if he knows that his children aren't hostages. How might he figure that out? Greendreams, possibly. Or he's in communication of some kind with other lords.

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When they are traveling through clan territory, Bran notes that the clansmen know they are there. Plus, Liddle told Bran that the Bastard's boys were paying silver for wolf pelts and for word of a certain walking dead. I think it's a good presumption that the mountain clans know the boys are alive. In fact, I think it's probably pretty much an open secret in most of the North.

I don't know how you jump from the isolated mountain clans to most of the north. If it was an open secret, it'd be at least heard on the wall.

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Wyman would have to be pretty confident about Skagos being safe for this theory to hold up; even if Osha thought she could keep him safe there between her survival skills and the wolf, I can't see Wyman agreeing to it if he shares the common belief that the locals are barbarians and cannibals.

But the idea that there's more to the inhabitants of Skagos is hardly new, so that needn't derail what's otherwise a pretty solid theory.

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Actually, there is a clue that Howland knows that, at least, Meera and Jojen got out (implication being that Rickon and Bran are also alive). Luwin is telling that Theon that the Reed kids are valuable heirs, because Howland wouldn't engage the ironborn at Moat Cailin if his kids were at risk. If they were hostages, Howland must "stay his hand."

Fast forward to when Theon goes to Moat Cailin to accept the surrender of the ironborn there. It turns out that the crannogmen have been guerilla-attacking the ironborn there. Howland thus appears free to attack the ironborn at will. How could he do that? He can do it if he knows that his children aren't hostages. How might he figure that out? Greendreams, possibly.

Right, but at that point the sack of Winterfell is known and his kids are no longer hostages of Theon Greyjoy. They are either dead or at the Dreadfort.

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While I do agree that Manderly sent them to Skagos (how else would they possibly get there?) I don't think that there is a grand conspiracy to remake a King in the North at the moment. I think this is more of a long term goal. What is needed in the immediate is vengeance for the sack of Winterfell against House Bolton, vengeance for the murder of Robb against House Frey, and vengeance for the murder of Ned Stark against the Lannisters. I don't necessarily believe that all the North knows that Rickon and Bran are alive. While I do think that the Liddle in the cave probably told the other Liddles, who is to say the Liddles told the other clans? Do the crannogmen really know that Bran is alive? Communicating with Howland Reed has never been the easiest thing. Some of this is good, but some is assumption.

The Cranogmen at the very least know that Meera and Jojen aren't at Winterfell. Luwin warns Theon when the Starks and the Reeds escape that it's in his best interests to keep the Reeds alive, since Howland can make Victarion's stay at Moat Cailin a "visit to hell." And we know from when Theon negotiated the surrender of the Ironborn garrison Victarion left behind that the Crannogmen did indeed unleash their particular brand of hell. This demonstrates that Howland didn't think that his children were in any danger anymore, opening the door for him to launch his attacks.

Keep in mind also that the Reed children seem to have been forgotten by everyone in the North. They're never mentioned by anyone outside of Bran post-ACoK. And tellingly, Theon never claims to have found them and killed them, as he did with Bran and Rickon. Howland could have easily put two and two together that his children are still alive (even if he fell for Theon's ruse regarding the Stark boys).

Also, it's quite possible that Howland has green dreams and/or access to the weirwood network; he did spend time at the Isle of Faces.

ETA:

Right, but at that point the sack of Winterfell is known and his kids are no longer hostages of Theon Greyjoy. They are either dead or at the Dreadfort.

If the Boltons had them or wanted Howland to believe they had them, they would have spread word to that effect. They were quick enough to let everyone know that they had the Walders and some of the Winterfell small folk and household staff. And again, Theon never claims to have killed them or found them: as far as everyone presumably knows, the Reeds are just missing.

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If the Boltons had them or wanted Howland to believe they had them, they would have spread word to that effect. They were quick enough to let everyone know that they had the Walders and some of the Winterfell small folk and household staff. And again, Theon never claims to have killed them or found them: as far as everyone presumably knows, the Reeds are just missing.

What he said. No one is claiming, uh, ownership of the kids. If Theon didn't have them, and Roose doesn't have them (and what better way to ensure Howland's cooperation if he did?), where else would they be except free?

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The other thing is, though... sending Rickon to Skagos to keep him safe? That sounds to me like sending someone to Camp Crystal Lake to keep their throat from getting slit. Skagos doesn't seem to have a reputation for safety, it's full of cannibals and wild beasts. Rickon may have a direwolf but he's still a child, after all, and may look quite delicious to a cannibal.

Several of us believe that Skagosi cannibalism is just a story. Though it's interesting that just before Davos thinks of cannibals, Wyman is telling him about the guest gifts to the Freys. We know what happens to them later! Yum!

I don't know how you jump from the isolated mountain clans to most of the north. If it was an open secret, it'd be at least heard on the wall.

Apple listed above all those who know the boys are alive. It's a pretty large spread of houses who know. Couple that with Ramsay sending people out looking for them and offering payment for any word, not a far leap to see that word's spread throughout the north.

As far as no one hearing on the wall, there isn't much communication going on between northern houses and the watch. The watch is sending ravens but aren't receiving any in return, until Ramsay's wedding and then the Pink Letter. Several clansmen later come to the wall after the wildlings have been let through. It's strange they don't tell Jon, but it's also strange that Sam doesn't tell Jon.

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Why not to Rally the rest of the northmen under Rickon as soon as he shows up?

Or keep Rickon hidden/send him to the wall to be with Jon or Last Hearth. Sending to Skagos is not a good option especially in storms.

Rickon is a toddler, and when he first leaves Winterfell, Robb is still alive. If he arrived at White Harbor after the Red Wedding and Roose Bolton's elevation to Warden of the North, showing Rickon would have drawn the attention of the Iron Throne (and remember that they still held Wyman's heir captive).

Regarding the storms, Rickon leaves Winterfell in early autumn, before the storms become more severe.

The Last Hearth was compromised because the Freys had captured the Greatjon.

The Wall was compromised because everyone knew that the Old Bear had taken most of the Watch's strength beyond the Wall. Jon doesn't return to the Wall until the second half of ASoS, well after Rickon's departure from Winterfell.

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Why not to Rally the rest of the northmen under Rickon as soon as he shows up?

Or keep Rickon hidden/send him to the wall to be with Jon or Last Hearth. Sending to Skagos is not a good option especially in storms.

I think Rickon is considered more of a back-up at this point. And I think the plan is for Stannis to clear out the Boltons before the northmen clear out Stannis. A Stark king, be it Rickon or Bran or Jon, could be a target for both the Boltons and Stannis. The Boltons because a Stark king threatens their legitimacy, and Stannis because he wouldn't want any king in the North but him. But if Stannis and Bolton fight and bleed each other, the "victor" afterward would be weakened enough that pro-Stark northern forces would be able to sweep him aside. This is a (very much) truncated version of the Great Northern Conspiracy thread.

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