Varys poisoned Tywin Lannister (a theory)

[Clariana]

The Tyrells are the least likely suspects IMO. They gain NOTHING by killing Tywin but they may lose EVERYTHING. Tywin was giving them what they earned. Tywin was about to send Cersei to CR. Tywin would certainly finish the rebellion. As long as Tywin was alive, no one would dare to rebel the IT. If the Tyrells wanted to kill Tywin, they must be as mad as Cersei.

I would have to disagree while Tywin lived the Tyrells would always be playing second fiddle to the Lannisters, and would also fall with them if the proverbial really hit the fan on Tommen's parentage... Removing him gives them room to manoeuvre and possibly even stage a discreet coup d'etat from within especially with Cersei neutralised, Jaime maimed Tyrion on the run and Kevan dead.

[Mithras]

I would have to disagree while Tywin lived the Tyrells would always be playing second fiddle to the Lannisters, and would also fall with them if the proverbial really hit the fan on Tommen's parentage... Removing him gives them room to manoeuvre and possibly even stage a discreet coup d'etat from within especially with Cersei neutralised, Jaime maimed Tyrion on the run and Kevan dead.

1. So now that Tywin is dead, the secret of Tommen's parentage remains intact, is this what you are saying? Since they said yes to LF, the Tyrells will rise and fall together with Lannisters. Tywin's death does not have any effect on this, except accelerating their fall.

2. What is the point af making a coup while they already had important seats and Tywin was willing to gave more?

3. Cersei was not neutralised at that time. Removing Tywin means giving the power to Cersei, who is by all accounts mad. Why would they do such a thing?

4. Kevan died a much later than Tywin. What is the manoeuvre you are thinking?

[Northernmonkey]

I think the point is that with Tywin dead the Tyrell's can dominate the small council. They're confident that they can outwit Cersei, but not Tywin.

[Nucky Thompson]

This kind of makes sense, because you would expect Varys to have some contact with Doran, because Aegon needs Dorne's support if he's going to take the throne. But Varys can't have known about Quentyn, otherwise he wouldn't have sent Aegon to meet Dany (or he would have sent him sooner).

It's not an entirely self-contradictory move when you think about it: consider the possible outcomes. Either Quentyn successfully woos Daenerys, weds her and Varys via Doran has the dragons in his pocket, or Quentyn is spurned and fails, but then Aegon arrives in Meereen, kicks the Yunkaii's arses, marries Daenerys, and Varys once again has the dragons in his pocket. The key detail here is the fact that from the point when the dragons hatched, Daenerys entirely slipped out of Varys' control - this couldn't be tolerated and had to be somehow remedied. What is more interesting, however, is that if we assume that Varys is in league with Doran, we must decide how long that has been the case. Doran concluded a marriage pact with Viserys, yet the Golden Company laughed at him all the same. If we can safely assume that Varys had them under control even then, we must conclude that he held them back to support Aegon when he came of age. It is my belief that Doran made that marriage pact (of which Viserys never heard) in order to prevent him from showing up at Sunspear and demanding to be reinstated on the Iron Throne by Doran's army. Viserys was to be a valuable pawn in facilitating the Dothraki deal, so he was useful for Varys and his behaviour had to be contained, lest it threaten Aegon's ascension, all the while being the target of Robert's assassins. After the dragons hatched, however, this plan sort of backfired on Varys, so he had Doran send Quentyn to try and fix things, all the while making Aegon take quite the detour in order to avoid problems later on in his conquest of Westeros.

[Daniel Snow]

This quote makes it feel like oberyn has poisoned tywin.

Also there was a part of Oberyn breaking bread with Tywin. Why would he do that, if not to poison him. he hated tywin.

I think oberyns breaking bread with twin further supports THIS theory, maybe george is showing a sort of guest right between the two, as a little hint that it is not oberyn without giving away the real poisoner

[Clariana]

I think the point is that with Tywin dead the Tyrell's can dominate the small council. They're confident that they can outwit Cersei, but not Tywin.

Exactly and the Sparrow humiliates Cersei, Jaime disappears and Varys finishes off Kevan who was proving to be just a little too competent. Perhaps Varys' is calculating that the Tyrells will make a mess of power thus opening the way for FAegon...

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Joffrey's death and Tyrion's trial were completely unknown to Oberyn while he was coming to KL. But he came for justice and that means he wanted to kill Gregor and Tywin. They should know the death of Amory because it happened several months before than the purple wedding.

Oberyn wanted to be heard of speaking treason and murder. He poisoned Tywin (and made sure that the death of Tywin looks unnatural) and wanted to be charged by murder after Tywin's death. If it would have happened like this, he would again have his fight with Gregor. The Lannister cannot find a more suitable man other than Gregor in a trial by combat. This time Oberyn would be defending his innocence not Tyrion's. I think this is exactly how he planned to take his revenge. Oberyn didnot fear anything. I think given enough time, he could have poisoned more Lannisters too.

Yes!!!

This is exactly what happened.

Oberyn came to town expecting to participate in a Trial by Battle. But he didn't know Joffrey would be killed. It must have been for a Tywin murder charge.

It's funny the results were roughly the same, but the process of getting there was different.

[Knight of the Amused Tree]

likey

[Mithras]

JonCon: Without Daenerys and her dragons, Dorne was central to their hopes. “Write Sunspear. Doran Martell must know that his sister’s son is still alive and has come home to claim his father’s throne.”

This is because fAegon is half Dornish and if Dorne will not believe him, no one will. Dorne is the best source of legitimacy other than Dany for fAegon. Remember Dany was included in the plan after the dragons. This means the original plan was always Dorne.

Doran: “The time is not yet come for Dorne to openly defy the Iron Throne, so we must needs return Myrcella to her mother,”

Illyrio: “Dorne might rise for Myrcella, but Dorne alone is not enough. If you are as clever as our friend insists, you know this.”

Tyrion: “He is right on both counts. To queen her is to kill her. And I knew that.”

All the clever guys know that Dorne is not ready to defy the IT even at the times of ADwD, let alone at the times of the end of ASoS.

I ask this: How can Varys hope to poison Tywin and have Oberyn not being blamed for this? And after Oberyn (dead or alive) is accused of poisoning Tywin, then shit comes raining down to Dorne and they are not ready for that yet.

[hvfp]

Plausible. I only disagree with the widow`s blood part

The description by Pycelle means that the subject would STOP pissing and shitting (shut down bladder and bowels) and drown in his own poisons (probably get his blood content all messed up and have some kind of kidney or heart malfunction— I`m not a doctor, though)

Yet when Tyrion gets to the tower of the hand, Tywin is in the privys, with his bedrobe raised, and a full bowel, which means he is probably about to go on full number 2, LOL

The part about Tyrion figuring that Varys would have poisoned Tywin etc... looked like a big leap.

[TheNorth's1stKnight]

why robert baratheon didn't kill varys when he became king is mind boggling to me.

[Dorian Martell]

Plausible. I only disagree with the widow`s blood part

The description by Pycelle means that the subject would STOP pissing and shitting (shut down bladder and bowels) and drown in his own poisons (probably get his blood content all messed up and have some kind of kidney or heart malfunction— I`m not a doctor, though)

Yet when Tyrion gets to the tower of the hand, Tywin is in the privys, with his bedrobe raised, and a full bowel, which means he is probably about to go on full number 2, LOL

The part about Tyrion figuring that Varys would have poisoned Tywin etc... looked like a big leap.

The theory is that he couldn't bang the whore because he felt like he had to crap but couldn't. That is why she was asleep. She was waiting a long time

[Hangover of the Morning]

I can't really get on board with this theory. The "Oberyn poisoned Tywin" has holes but overall it is logical and elegantly explains a lot of the odd things surrounding Tywin's death and also fits well with the Red Viper's character.

Varys as the poisoner just seems contrived and rather than solving and explaining things it makes everything more complicated.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

The theory is that he couldn't bang the whore because he felt like he had to crap but couldn't. That is why she was asleep. She was waiting a long time

Exactly, plus the crap doesn't exit until he dies.

I don't know about you guys, but when I sit down on the toilet, crap comes out within seconds.

If Tywin wasn't constipated, Tyrion would need to enter right between the sit and the expulsion - a very small window.

[Aether]

So I think you have some good points, but that there are a couple of things that don't make sense here to me, and are better explained by Oberyn being the poisoner. Most of what I'll say has been said by Victor227 and Paper Waver spread out across the thread, but I think it will be more apparent summarized in one post.

I agree with the point that we're told about that specific poison for a reason. It's a classic example of Chekhov's gun, IMO. I also agree that it seems extremely likely that it was used on Tywin, based on the seemingly unnatural corpse rot (they removed his bowels and treated the body, Pycelle seems surprised that the stench is so strong despite these efforts, presumably Pycelle is not new to treating corpses) the fact that there are a number of hints; literal (Tywin being in the privy long enough for Tyrion to speak to, and strangle Shae, retrieve and load a crossbow, and Tywin has still apparently not accomplished his "task") and figurative (Tyrion wondering for a second if his father had drunk a cup of poisoned wine).

By the same token, this sentence: "a large wood-and-iron chest had been placed against the wall directly under the crossbow." also seems to strongly imply not just that there was a chest there, but that someone specifically placed it there, directly under the crossbow, and I agree, this was probably Varys.

My problem arises with the idea that Varys would poison Tywin, and then go through an elaborate process to have Tyrion kill him, and that this problem is completely resolved if you look at it with Oberyn as the poisoner. It may seem somewhat strange that Oberyn would speak so brazenly knowing that people could be listening, but think from his perspective, if he knows that Tywin is a walking dead man because he has poisoned him, and that his fight with The Mountain is all but guaranteed, from his perspective it really doesn't matter, because a few things could happen:
1. He dies and it doesn't matter anyway
2. He wins and flees immediately to Dorne with Tyrion, having secured his revenge against the 2 people he went to King's Landing to kill.

He's already publicly spitting in Tywin and Mace Tyrell's faces by agreeing to fight for Tyrion, so it seems unlikely that he would be worried about spies overhearing him. Frankly - and this part is very speculative, but still makes more sense than Varys poisoning him, IMO - his original plan might even have been to get caught for poisoning Tywin so that he could then demand trial by combat and get The Mountain, thereby winning his innocence and killing both men publicly, with everyone knowing he did it. Even if that's not the case, the rest still works perfectly, Oberyn is a known hothead, not a slick politician.

I think this quote is interesting as well:

"He may indeed crown Tommen, here in King's Landing. Which is not to say that my brother may not crown Myrcella, down in Sunspear. Will your father make war on your niece on behalf of your nephew? Will your sister?" He gave a shrug. "Perhaps I should marry Queen Cersei after all, on the condition that she support her daughter over her son. Do you think she would?"

This is immediately before Oberyn says "your father may not live forever" and it sounds to me like Oberyn is already in the mindset that it will be Cersei making the decision as to whether to make war or not, probably because he knows Tywin is about to die. Again, if Tywin is about to die and Oberyn already knows that he's going to flee with the heir to Casterly Rock and declare Myrcella the rightful heir to the throne, he probably wouldn't care about any little birds overhearing. Everything is effectively done, Tyrion hasn't chosen trial by combat yet, but Oberyn knows he has no other choice. His plans will unfold over the following 2-3 days inevitably.

Varys, on the other hand, has Aegon's interests in mind, and has stated relatively recently that they are not prepared at this point to reveal his identity and go to war. Given that Aegon is (presumably) Elia's son (I think he's a Blackfyre, but even if that's the case, Varys would present him as a Targaryen to the Dornish) Dorne is an important ally in their plans to eventually invade Westeros, and it is in Varys' interest to keep them on the good side of those in power so as not to drag them into the war and weaken them before Aegon and the Golden company are ready to invade.

From this angle, it makes much more sense for Varys then to send Tyrion up to his father's chambers knowing that Shae was there waiting and Tywin is indisposed from the poisoning with a weapon conveniently located above a footstool. It takes the blame for Tywin's death completely away from Dorne and places it on Tyrion, with added suspicion that the Tyrells were also involved because of the coin (and of course, the Tyrells are the one family the Martells hate almost as much as the Lannisters). Dorne can continue to spy using their seat on the small council and they don't have to commit anything to the war, Cersei will tear apart her own alliance with the Tyrells, and then Dorne can switch sides when the Golden Company arrive with their prince and clean up the rabble.

The only thing that niggled me about all of this was, how did Varys know that Tyrion would want to confront his father, since the conversation about Tysha happens too shortly beforehand for him to have known, and I realized that he could simply have mentioned Shae had Tyrion not volunteered to go without being prompted. Granted, this isn't in the text, but let's look at this again from Varys' point of view, even if the Tysha conversation never happens, he surely knows Shae is in his father's bed, If he were to "accidentally" mention something about it, it seems extremely likely that Tyrion would be keen to take the chance to confront her and/or kill her and Tywin having just had that bomb dropped on him.

For me, absolutely everything lines up perfectly with Oberyn as the poisoner. With Varys, you're left wondering why he would try to kill the same man in 2 different ways, and what exactly his interest in killing him in a way that implicates Oberyn is. I think you've reinforced the Oberyn theory for me to the point where I feel it's pretty much on par with the Jon Snow's parentage "theory" in how strong the evidence is.

[Mithras]

snip

Good wrap up, totally agreed.

The only thing that niggled me about all of this was, how did Varys know that Tyrion would want to confront his father, since the conversation about Tysha happens too shortly beforehand for him to have known, and I realized that he could simply have mentioned Shae had Tyrion not volunteered to go without being prompted. Granted, this isn't in the text, but let's look at this again from Varys' point of view, even if the Tysha conversation never happens, he surely knows Shae is in his father's bed, If he were to "accidentally" mention something about it, it seems extremely likely that Tyrion would be keen to take the chance to confront her and/or kill her and her father having just had that bomb dropped on him.

Tyrion told the Tysha story to Shae in ACoK while Varys and his spies are close by. I am sure that he knows the full tale now.

Varys was waiting in the stables, as promised. His horse looked spavined and half-dead. Tyrion mounted up; one of the sellswords opened the gates. They rode out in silence. Why did I tell her about Tysha, gods help me? he asked himself, suddenly afraid. There were some secrets that should never be spoken, some shames a man should take to his grave. What did he want from her, forgiveness? The way she had looked at him, what did that mean? Did she hate the thought of scouring pots that much, or was it his confession? How could I tell her that and still think she would love me? part of him said, and another part mocked, saying, Fool of a dwarf, it is only the gold and jewels the whore loves.

We also know from the famous dialogue of Varys and Illyrio that he is aware of the queer affection of Jaime to Tyrion. We know that this is mainly because of Jaime’s feeling of guilt about Tysha. A Lannister pays his debts, right?

Before the smuggling of Tyrion, Jaime waited in the chamber of Varys the whole day. I think Varys is clever enough to understand his intention of saving Tyrion. So, as soon as he was informed that Jaime was in his chamber, Varys realized that he had to smuggle out Tyrion and he could not stay public after that anymore.

I think the crossbow was put for Tyrion to kill them but even if he did not go upstairs, Varys would kill Shae and Tywin himself. So, the accessible-by-dwarf crossbow was going to be used as an evidence pointing to Tyrion.

In any case he had to disappear and in any case, missing Tyrion was going to get the blame.

Oberyn had his own mind and he wanted to start the war after the trial but at that time, the Lannister-Tyrell alliance was intact and the time was not ripe for Dorne to defy the IT. Varys knew that, Doran knew that, Illyrio knew that and Tyrion admitted that much. Therefore, Varys should try to avert the suspicions away from Dorne. He could not let Tywin die from obvious poison because in that case Oberyn and Dorne would pay the price.

[Aether]

I do think that Varys knew what Jaime planned, and was probably making arrangements during the time that Jaime was waiting, knowing that he would have to go into hiding, including moving the chest under the crossbow. The only thing I am not convinced about is that he knows the truth of the Tysha story. He knows the story that Tyrion tells, undoubtedly, but I get the impression that this is an extremely old secret to which only Tywin and Jaime were privy, and I have a hard time seeing how he could learn the truth of it. It's possible that he knew, but that part is shaky for me, it seems more likely that his initial intention would've been to bait Tyrion with the opportunity to ask Shae why she betrayed him, and that he just sort of took advantage of the fact that Tyrion was already enraged by Jaime's story to avoid implicating himself further.

He may know, but I think it works either way, even if he had no clue, he has set the situation up so that all he has to do is point Tyrion towards the room where the motive, weapon, and opportunity are waiting for him.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

I think that Varys and Illyrio are giving Dany poisoned gifts in the form of advisors.

They first gave her Jorah who would drive away the support of Lys.

They next gave her Barristan who would drive away the Golden Company.

By giving Dany Tyrion, they are removing any chance of a Lannister-Dany alliance.

So, why the chest and crossbow?

If the Tyrells are actually guilty of killing Joffrey and the Martells are actually guilty of killing Tywin, there is a good chance that Cersei will eventually catch wind of one of these plots. If one comes out, they will likely be blamed for the other. Essentially, an eventual reveal of Tyrion's innocence is likely. And with Tyrion's innocence, a Lannister-Dany alliance would again be possible.

Tyrion actually murdering his father forever destroys that possibility.

[Mithras]

I do think that Varys knew what Jaime planned, and was probably making arrangements during the time that Jaime was waiting, knowing that he would have to go into hiding, including moving the chest under the crossbow. The only thing I am not convinced about is that he knows the truth of the Tysha story. He knows the story that Tyrion tells, undoubtedly, but I get the impression that this is an extremely old secret to which only Tywin and Jaime were privy, and I have a hard time seeing how he could learn the truth of it. It's possible that he knew, but that part is shaky for me, it seems more likely that his initial intention would've been to bait Tyrion with the opportunity to ask Shae why she betrayed him, and that he just sort of took advantage of the fact that Tyrion was already enraged by Jaime's story to avoid implicating himself further.

He may know, but I think it works either way, even if he had no clue, he has set the situation up so that all he has to do is point Tyrion towards the room where the motive, weapon, and opportunity are waiting for him.

I think Varys can predict the truth easily. Apparently, Tysha was employed to make a man of Tyrion, however, Tywin gives her the same treatment with the mistress of his father. I think, even Tyrion should have understood that this was a farce but he was young and he trusted Jaime. Besides, it is not so important about the course of the events. Tyrion is condemned to die, Jaime is waiting in the room of Varys with a dagger. Varys knows that he has a queer affection for the imp. It is obvious that he wants Varys to take him out.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

I'm starting to wonder if everyone was poisoning Tywin. Hey, why not? Most of Westeros had motive. The most likely suspects are Varys, Pycelle (he could but he wouldn't), Oberyn and Mace. If the goal was just to make Tywin uncomfortable at first and he got a triple dose, he could have been dying from the poison by the time Tyrion shot him. That could potentially negate the kinslaying part, as he in effect killed a dead man.

I think Varys can predict the truth easily. Apparently, Tysha was employed to make a man of Tyrion, however, Tywin gives her the same treatment with the mistress of his father. I think, even Tyrion should have understood that this was a farce but he was young and he trusted Jaime. Besides, it is not so important about the course of the events. Tyrion is condemned to die, Jaime is waiting in the room of Varys with a dagger. Varys knows that he has a queer affection for the imp. It is obvious that he wants Varys to take him out.

Paper Waver, have you read all of the books? Cause it sounds like maybe you're just watching the show, and I don't know whether to say anything or not because I don't know how much they're going to include on the upcoming episodes about the background with Tyrion and Tysha.

Oh, and Tywin gave Tysha way worse treatment than what he did to his father's mistress. As far as I know he only had his father's mistress do a walk of shame through the village. Tysha was raped repeatedly by Lannister guards and then taken by Tyrion who was made to watch the whole thing, and then pay her double because "a Lannister is worth more."