I was wondering what kind of military force dany can expect to face when she arrives in westeros. So I decided to create this very detailed table in the style of the ones on the wiki used to show the stats for a particular battle or war, it took me a long time but I wanted to show other forum users to see what you think and what this means for the future of the seven kingdoms.
Before you read the table heres some points to consider.
- all the information comes from various pages on the wiki or this very informative and useful video made by elio: http://www.youtube.c...saNQtww&index=2
- However, a lot of the numbers are still very vague and as you can see I have put approximate next to many of them and some which i've made only estimated guesses I've used words like maybe or possibly.
- I have made assumptions based on our knowledge so far of TWOW and events so far, as I don't believe dany will actually get to westeros till ADOS and I think TWOW will end with her consolidating her forces, such as (possible spoiler alert) dany will take conntrol of jhaqo's khalasar and use them to relieve the yunkai siege before using the iron fleet (with or without victarion) to return home, and that sansa will be revealed to stannis before rickon and he will make her lady of the north bringing all the houses of the vale, all the remaining houses of the north, and the houses of the riverlands through either sansa's friendship with Littlefinger (now lord paramount there) raising the troops or the houses there's thirst for vengeance for Robb. most of these Assumptions I have included in the table in brackets.Edit: I am aware that this assumption might be a bit far fetched,but I think it quite likely that once she's revealed stannis would recognise sansa as leader of the vale which would certainly give him the full support of the north even if not that of the vale and riverlands.
- As such their will be spoilers particularly for a TWOW arianne chapter which has been read at conventions but not been published online.
- I have guessed some other forces such as justin masseys sellswords as mentioned in the theon spoiler chapter and although they don't seem likely to arrive before stannis' death I don't think they're just a throway line as otherwise why would GRRM include it so late in the series. I also think illyrio has some other force in waiting like some kind of pentoshi royal guard or something, to give to aegon other than the golden company as if aegon is his son and i think he'd give him more than just one sellsword company who might fall through on their offer or be defeated. I think these forces are probably about equal as most sellsowrds in the moment are in meereen so massey would only be able to recruit a small company of maybe 400 men and whatever force illyrio is hiding it would have to be quite small or people would get suspicious. I also think the faceless men have something up their sleeve against dany as they would not like a daughter of valyria ruling the seven kingdoms, and if as rumored they are in league with the iron bank they seem to have tied themselves to stannis.
- The numbers do not represent things like cavalry, squires or harry stricklands precious elephants, Just number of fighting men
The war the seven Kingdoms
Kings of Westeros
King Tommen Baratheon,
King Stannis Baratheon,
King Euron Greyjoy,
(fighting separately) Edit: can people please stop complaing to me in the comments about how I've assumed they'll side together, I've clearly stated it here and enlaged it so you all can see. I've written it like this because that's how it's done on the page for the conquest on the wiki: http://awoiaf.wester...War_of_Conquest
Queen Daenerys Targaryen
King Aegon VI Targaryen
(assuming they ally before she uncovers the mummers dragon)
· Unknown Regent (probably a Lannister)
· Hand of the King Mace Tyrell
· Jaime Lannister
· Lady of the North: Sansa Stark
· Lord Paramount of the Vale: Harrold Hardyng
· Lord Paramount of the Riverlands: Petyr Baelish
· Monterys Velaryon (assuming he’ll lead the forces of dragonstone)
· Dagmer Cleftjaw
· Khal Jhaqo
· Grey Worm: Leader of the unsullied.
· Ser Barristan Selmy (If he doesn’t die in Meereen)
· Ser Jorah Mormont
· Daario Naharis
· Brown Ben Plumm
· Skahaz Mo Kandaq
· Victarion Greyjoy
· Tyrion Lannister
· Doran Martell
· Homeless harry Strickland
· Jon Connington
· House Lannister and The Westerlands (50,000 men approx.)
· House Tyrell and the reach (excluding House Florent )98,000 men approx.
· Houses from the Stormlands (minus all the houses like griffins roost which seems to have switched to support the golden company and/or houses which although they swear fealty to the iron throne since renly’s death and Stannis defeat at blackwater have abstained from supporting the Lannister in battle perhaps because like Estermont they’re rooting for Stannis or they generally don’t want any bloodshed like Tarth)
Maybe 13,000 men.
· Lannister, Redwyne (and a royal fleet severely weakened by loss of ships sworn to dragonstones and Aurane waters Piracy) fleets: overall strength maybe about: 600 ships overall combined total.
House Frey: 4,000 men
· House Stark and the north 30,000 men approx. (excluding the men of house Bolton and smaller houses sworn to them)
· House Arryn and the Vale (35,000 men approx.)
· House Baelish and the Riverlands (32,000 men excluding House Frey and Loyalist houses Like Mooton, Darry, Ryger and Whent)
· Houses sworn to Dragonstone (Celtigar, bar Emmon however I think that Velaryon would traitor to the Targaryens as loyalists)
Approx. 2,000 men.
· House Florent: 2,000 men
· Stannis’ fleet at least 70 ships. and Manderleys navy of about 130 ships.
· Possible sellswords hired by ser Justin Massey; 400 men approx.
· 14,500 men (after 500 or so leave with the iron fleet).
· About 400 assorted ships (after the iron fleet has left with Vic)
· 20,000 Dothraki in Jhaqo’s khalasar.
· 83 Dothraki from Drogo’s khalasar
· 8300 unsullied and 4900 boys in training(assuming a few of them die in the battle of Meereen)
· 800 freedmen of Astapor and Meereen including 300 brazen beasts and 6 squires trained by Ser Barristan.
· The storm-crows: 500 men.
· The second sons (having been brought over by Tyrion): 500 men.
· The iron Fleet. 1464 men and 61 ships (+the 5 Ghiscari ships Victarion caught)
· Loyalist houses from all seven kingdoms who still love house Targaryen Like house Darry. Approximately maybe 12,000 men.
· Houses of Dorne led by House Martell. 25,000 men approx.
· 3 Dragons
Under Aegon I.
· The Golden Company: 10,000 men.
· Forces of the Stormlands houses like Connington which have switched sides to the golden company: Maybe 4,000
· 300 men (who as has been suggested in Arianne II in TWOW have surrendered to Aegon’s siege.
· Possible force supplied by Illyrio Mopatis: 400 men.
So by my calculations when dany arrives in westeros her forces of 88,247 soldiers, 66 ships and 3 dragons, will be severely out numbered by a combined force of the seven kingdoms of 279700 soldiers and 1190 ships.
This is definitely different from a lot of forum users assumption that when dany invades, things will be a walkover for her and tons of houses will immediately swear fealty, as the only kingdom who will support her is dorne which has the 3rd smallest military strength of the kingdoms before the iron isles and crownlands, as house tyrell who supported her father in the rebellion will go for a king whose queen is one of their own and has far greater forces than a queen whose family for generations to come will remember them as usurpers dogs and distrust them to much to marry.
However, dany does have some advantages,
1. the dothraki, unsullied and golden company are all in all a far more formidable fighting force than the average westerosi army. Edit: please also stop commenting that the unsullied and dothraki are useless, the dothraki have ravaged half of essos and both the free cities and robert baratheon live in fear of them, and the unsullied must be pretty fucking amazing to stop them.
2. a lot of these armies will be tired and weakened from fighting the war of five kings and ensuing skirmishes. Edit: you can also stop commenting that I haven't taken this into account as I've clearly written it here, I just didn't include it in the figures because I didn't know the full extent of the losses, if you want to know more about that check out this thread http://awoiaf.wester...War_of_Conquest
3. the westerosi forces fight individually like they did during the conquest which led to their downfall, and although together they overwhelm her seperately she easily outnumbers euron and his forces and if she were to swallow them through either surrender (which seems more likely as the dragons could burn the fleet) a marriage alliance (which euron would be happy with) she'd only be a few ten thousand off stannis' number and have a larger fleet.
4. the armies are already fighting each other as a result of the aftermath of the war of five kings so they can't focus their full strength on dany or won't be able too till it's too late.
5. because of these ensuing conflicts and the geography of westeros consolidating troops will be difficult.
6. due to the dothraki and golden company influence a higher percentage of dany's army will be cavalry.
7. provided she lands in westeros before the iron throne turn their attention from their other enemies to her, a naval battle is unlikely to happen.
8. and as elio mentioned in the video lots of the forces of the seven kingdoms are sailors in the fleets who can't also fight as soldiers as well as sailing ships.
9. Dragons, need I say more than mention the words field of fire.
The seven kingdoms also have advantages over her:
1. becoming one united realm over 300 years rather than seven squabbling kingdoms, has allowed several years of peace in which the kingdoms can focus on building up population and military strength so she'll have to face a greater amount of troops than aegon the conqueror.
2. They can learn from dorne's example of how to fight dragons.
3. The dragon horn still hasn't played an important role yet and if it falls into an enemies hands. (could this be where the faceless men will come into play?)
4. As I've said before they have a huge numbers advantage.
5. will the factions of dany's army work together, I can't see dothraki and unsullied being the best of mates and surely aegon's status as the mummers dragon and dany's as the slayer of lies will clash badly.
Their are also 2 factors that will affect both sides:
- Winter: has finally arrived and because of the 5 kings only dorne and the vale have managed to collect a harvest- which they in turn will have to spread thin by sharing with other people on their side- so if the war goes on far a while or there is protracted sieges both sides will be weakened.
- The long night: The watch is at it's weakest and the others will soon come, they're both gonna have to worry about that and maybe have to truce and fight them together.
what do you guys think, I think I've done a very detailied analysis here but I understand if you disagree with it based on what you take from my table. so please respond below?
P.S. can I get some feedback on the table and it's validity. it took me ages to make and write this topic in such detail(about 1hour spreadout over my spare time in a week for the table itself and another 2 to write this topic) and I wouldn't like it to go to waste if the table is completely wrong and I didn't know about it. Personally, I think it's highly accurate although I can understand if some of my guesses like the size of manderly's navy or the forces of the combined loyalist houses are wrong, Looking back over it I think some figures might be wrong but it's a pain in the ass to go back and change it now.
Edited by locke and key, 09 February 2013 - 06:51 PM.