Second Dance Mega Prediction.

[chrisdaw]

A prediction for the second dance and preceeding events. Reasoning in blue.

Meereen aftermath.

In the wash up of Meereen Victarion and Tyrion become members of team Dany. Victarion becomes master of ships [her former master of ships has been timely executed at the end of ADWD] and with the horn gains control of one or both dragons not named Drogo. If Victarion controls only Rhaegal then Tyrion will have control of Viserion, Dany will approve and/or allow their ownership. Jorah will be accepted back into Dany's court. Team Dany heads West for Westeros, some forces with Victarion by sea, the Khalasaar and others march the Demon's road under Dany's command.

Aegon takes KL.

Aegon marries or is betrothed to Arianne [Aegon will be repeating after his father by marrying the princess of Dorne, Arianne has been built as a master seductress and is ambitious and Doran wants to marry a child into royalty, Jon believes Dorne is the key to conquering the seven kingdoms and with his greyscale his time to sit Rhaegar's son on the IT is running out, when word of of the circumstances that lead to Quentyn's death and that Dany is missing possibly dead reaches the ears of these players the match will be struck.] and so gains Dorne's spears, unbeknownst to the rest of the realm.

Aegon takes KL, a few possible theories on how it plays out.

1. Marge's trial concludes. Mace Tyrell sets out from KL and for the third time lays siege to Storm's End where Aegon and the GC are holed up. Information is provided to Jon Con by Varys or by Lady Nym by way of Dorne and Arianne prior to Mace's coming and Dorne's spears provide a surprise attack on Mace's forces, the GC join the fight and the Tyrell host is destroyed. Most likely a Tyrell bannerman turns cloak as well as hinted at by Laswell Peake (most likely Tarly but it matters not).
   
   
2. Mace abandons the throne, perhaps due to an unsatisfactory result in Marge's trial, takes his host West instead of East, to alleviate the Iron Born threat to his lands, leaving KL lightly defended and nothing between Aegon and the city.
   
   
3. The trial goes poorly and Mace sets his army on KL. Blood runs in the streets as the faith and Tyrell's turn the city into a chaos of slaughter.
   

Regardless how the above plays out the end result is Aegon marches on KL where Varys has the Faith, who have lost faith in the current monarchs, open the gates and declare him king to the joy of the city which has likewise lost faith. ["A cloth dragon sways on poles amidst a cheering crowd". A repetition of the HS opening the gates of Oldtown to Aegon I. One of Varys outfits is a Septon's robe and he explicitly states to Kevan that among his reasons for assassinating him is that he threatened to "bind the faith to your little king".]

Aegon, with the Faith and Dorne ends the Lannister/Baratheon/Tyrell rule. [Foreshadowing here.]

Tyrion steals a Dragon (or two).

How this plays out exactly is difficult to gage.

Dany will settle business in Pentos and then turn her gaze to Westeros. Word of Aegon sitting the IT will reach her there. Tyrion will plants the seed in her mind that Aegon may be fake, a Blackfyre. Either Dany will go to Westeros and KL herself (Tyrion among the party) where there will be a tense truce or she will send Tyrion on ahead to treat with Aegon.

Aegon will want a dragon, Aegon will feel he deserves a dragon. Tyrion wants and needs the rock as it is his birthright and he has debts to pay. A deal is struck in secret, a dragon for the rock. ["The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal." "three treasons will you know: once for blood and once for gold and once for love".]

Whilst in KL Tyrion will meet up with old pal Bronn who will have been climbing the rungs of power in the Crownlands. [See here.]

Tyrion, with the help of Ben Plumm and most likely the use of the horn, steals all the dragons Victarion has, be it one or two. [Tyrion vs Victarion foreshadowing here.*more on this edit in* Foreshadowing discussion of Tyrion and Plumm stealing a dragon here. Also in keeping with a Tyrion parallel to Lann the clever.] He brings Aegon Rhaegal and if he isn't all ready becomes Viserion's rider.

Aegon and Tyrion conquer the Rock.

With his newly acquired dragon Aegon will set out with Tyrion to repay his friend and expand his kingdom by taking Casterly Rock and installing Tyrion as Lord. Aegon will take his Dornish forces, the Golden Company and the forces of the Faith. Also joining his ranks I believe will be whatever forces Darry and Ser Bonnifer Hastie can muster [Reasoning here.]. Jon as Hand and Varys as Varys will stay in KL, I think with the Gold Cloaks. The Crownland forces will remain dormant.

And so Aegon on Rhaegal and Tyrion on Viserion lead the army West and destroy what forces the Lannister's can scrape together. Their battle plan I believe will be hammer and anvil style. [Foreshadowing Viserion vs Lannisters. Viserion and Rhaegal teaming up on a lion hammer and anvil style.] Things go great, Tyrion becomes Lord of the rock, a Lannister pays his debt, Plumm gets paid, big success.

Prelude to the Dance.

For whatever reasons Dany will come to believe Aegon is fake. Down two dragons due to the treacherous monkey demon and mummer's dragon Dany reacts the only way she knows how, fuming fire and blood she readies her forces to meet Aegon's in the Riverlands and kick off the second dance.

Aegon and Tyrion receive word Dany and her horde are on the march, and head out to meet her. Tyrion suggests another hammer and anvil style arrangement, Aegon will draw Dany out to him and her forces to his, and Tyrion will head to KL to rouse Jon with the gold cloaks and the Crownland forces and on dragon back spear head an attack into the rear of Dany's forces.

The Dance.

Aegon and company meet Dany with all her forces, perhaps on the banks of the Trident. Aegon atop Rhaegal and usurper Dany on her Drogon, the historic parallel I think obvious. The two forces clash. Ser Bonnifer Hasty on seeing Dany turns cloak (or perhaps earlier upon hearing of Dany's arrival) [this again]. If Tarly was the Tyrell turncloak then him and Jorah go at it. [for reasons explain here] Rhaegal and Drogon collide in mid air and crash to ground, Aegon is killed, Rhaegal dead or dying, Dany hurt but ultimately ok (because she is the blood of the dragon afterall) and Drogon alive but wounded. [foreshadowing, paralleling Rhaegar's death.] With Aegon dead it becomes apparent his forces are left with nothing to fight for.

Tyrion Steals a Crown.

Two scenarios, either (1) Tyrion had always intended to betray Aegon and allow him and Dany to destroy each other or (2) he simply arrives too late, either way the result is the same, Dany put to flight and Tyrion sits the IT, Lann style.["When he opened the door, the light from within threw his shadow clear across the yard, and for just a moment Tyrion Lannister stood tall as a king". "And ofttimes a very small man can cast a very large shadow". "Dragons old and young, true and false, bright and dark. And you. A small man with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all." Paralleling history to some degree, the first Dance ended when both primary combatants were killed and there was left only one likely heir, I'm not proposing Dany dies but that she is lost, Aegon I propose does die and with no real likely successor to either I believe Tyrion fills the vacuum, if for no other reason he'll have a dragon.]

1. While Aegon and Dany set out for each other Tyrion flies to the Crownlands and has Bronn muster what are now mostly his forces. Through trickery or force he alleviates the command of the Gold Cloaks from Jon and either just takes KL and waits for whichever side won to turn up in their desperate state to make them submit to him or he heads out to subdue the weakened force in the aftermath. Dany perhaps injured herself, with an injured Drogo, dead or dying Rhaegal and severely roasted army is not a match for Tyrion.
   
   
2. Arriving late and after Aegon is dead, Tyrion takes control of Aegon's forces and makes her flee.
   

Another thought is during the dance Rhaegal and Drogon in battle will fly away from the field and have their crash landing too far from their forces (Greywater Watch) for them to know what happened, and when Tyrion turns up there's no dragon to stop him claiming victory in his own name.

[The Bastard's Bastard]

The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon.

Doesn't the "dark flame" stand for a Blackfyre? If so, then who's the mummers dragon if Aegon's a Blackfyre?

edit:"Victarion's men call the priest the "Black Flame" after "Moqorro" proves too difficult for them to pronounce."

[RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon]

My biggest question regarding DWD 2 is, What's Barristan going to do? Is he going to believe Aegon as fake and never leave Dany's side? Betray Dany for Aegon believing him to be the rightful king he is sworn to protect. Is this one of the "treasons" Dany would have. Could Septa Lemore be part of this, if she is Ashara Dayne, the woman Barristan had feelings for, could she be the perfect person to persuade him of Aegon and get him to leave Dany for him?

I like your theories but I think you like Tyrion a bit much. I really doubt he's getting anywhere near the Iron Throne. I think his path will take him back to the Wall (or what's left of the watch) at some point.

[Kingdoms'Rights]

Yeah I agree, a bit heavy on the Tyrion part. I sure as hell hope he doesnt ride any dragons and even if somehow he does please dont let him be a secret targ. I hate all of those! Also, Tyrion would need to bind the Dragon Horn to himself with blood and get somebody to blow it for him. Not sure if he could get one of Plumm's men to do this for him. Not to mention how Tyrion can get the horn away from Victarion.

Im hoping that Victarion uses the horn and tries to steal Viserion and Rhaegal. Im not sure why, but I think it would be awesome if Victarion gets one of them killed under his control. That would be sure to leave a sour taste in Dany's mouth. Im not sure that this is going to happen though. Id like to see a dragon die, but it needs to happen far enough north that it can be brought back as a wight dragon !!!!

[oprahnoodlemantra]

Cool scenario but it completely overlooks everything happening in the North. Do you really think Stannis would let all of that happen without coming down to grit his teeth at the dragons? If Stannis is dead then there's still the Boltons/Freys and Manderly with Rickon and the other Northern lords. What about the theory that weirwood arrows can kill dragons?

[Lord Spark of House Spark]

I can't imagine that Tyrion would want the Iron throne for himself. even though he did the best job as hand as anyone had in decades and started to run the city of kings landing in an extraordinarily efficient manner, he would feel that he would be too unpopular on the throne itself regardless of how good or fair or right he is. he has always lived in his brother's shadow, in his own mind more than any one elses.

He does enjoy the political cut and thrust of high office however, and as long as he can be Lord of the rock, and maybe a job such as Master of Coin, (or whatever Baelish's title was) or maybe even hand again, he will be happy.

I'd like to see Bronn join up with him again when he gets back to Westeros again though.

[Veltigar]

There is no nice way to say this but I believe that most of what you have written is :bs: . I'll try and give some sound criticism.

Meereen aftermath.

In the wash up of Meereen Victarion and Tyrion become members of team Dany. Victarion becomes master of ships [her former master of ships has been timely executed at the end of ADWD] and with the horn gains control of one or both dragons not named Drogo. If Victarion controls only Rhaegal then Tyrion will have control of Viserion, Dany will approve and/or allow their ownership. Jorah will be accepted back into Dany's court. Team Dany heads West for Westeros, some forces with Victarion by sea, the Khalasaar and others march the Demon's road under Dany's command.

Tyrion steals a Dragon (or two).

How this plays out exactly is difficult to gage.

Dany will settle business in Pentos and then turn her gaze to Westeros. Word of Aegon sitting the IT will reach her there. Tyrion will plants the seed in her mind that Aegon may be fake, a Blackfyre. Either Dany will go to Westeros and KL herself (Tyrion among the party) where there will be a tense truce or she will send Tyrion on ahead to treat with Aegon.

Aegon will want a dragon, Aegon will feel he deserves a dragon. Tyrion wants and needs the rock as it is his birthright and he has debts to pay. A deal is struck in secret, a dragon for the rock. ["The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal." "three treasons will you know: once for blood and once for gold and once for love".]

Whilst in KL Tyrion will meet up with old pal Bronn who will have been climbing the rungs of power in the Crownlands. [See here.]

Tyrion, with the help of Ben Plumm and most likely the use of the horn, steals all the dragons Victarion has, be it one or two. [Tyrion vs Victarion foreshadowing here.*more on this edit in* Foreshadowing discussion of Tyrion and Plumm stealing a dragon here. Also in keeping with a Tyrion parallel to Lann the clever.] He brings Aegon Rhaegal and if he isn't all ready becomes Viserion's rider.

Why on earth would Tyrion decide to turn on Dany in your scenario? Don't you think that if Dany allows the imp to ride one of her dragons, she'll also grant him Casterley Rock... I mean you compare him with Lan the Clever not with Joffrey the stupid!!! Of course Dany gives him the rock if she allows Tyrion to become one of the heads of her precious dragon.

Also, Tyrion will probably tell about his suspicions early on, to be on the safe side. Don't forget that he has some accounts to settle with the people who are behind Faegon. And even if he doesn't tell it, no way in hell Aegon would fall for his ruse, he has the Spider on his side.

Another point of criticism: "a dragon for the rock"?! that's probably the stupidest trade I've ever heard off if it actually took place.

You also seriously underestimate the intelligence of Dany, Aegon and all of their counsellors besides why wouldn't they dubblecross him because they want the dragon back.

I also see that you convenientley forgot to mention the entire volantine fleet coming their way.

There are other things but I'm not even delving in to that.

[Veltigar]

[

[chrisdaw]

Tyrion is on team Tyrion, not team Dany or Aegon. Dany will not give him the rock because it will not be hers to give or hers to take, Aegon will sit the throne and Dany will not attack him without reason.

Volantene fleet as with the rest of Meereen, Pentos, Vaes Dothrak and every city Dany conquers on the way is not relevant as it does not directly relate to the dance that this topic is about.

The North have their own issues to deal with and no-one will go traveling South with a weaker force to make enemies of dragons when they do not need to and have plenty else to do. The North will play no part in the dance.

Tyrion and Plumm stealing a dragon is strongly foreshadowed, Tyrion becoming king even more so, it's naught to do with a like or dislike of the character but reading where the story is pointed.

[Veltigar]

Tyrion is on team Tyrion, not team Dany or Aegon. Dany will not give him the rock because it will not be hers to give or hers to take, Aegon will sit the throne and Dany will not attack him without reason.

The reason why Dany would attack him is simple... He's a freaking Blackfyre!!! And the Rock is hers to give, She's the queen the Lannisters rebelled against her house, if she comes back with her army then she would be able to give the Rock to anybody from Queen Selyse's moustache to Tyrion

[chrisdaw]

I believe Dany will not immediately come to the conclusion that Aegon is a pretender.

[Veltigar]

I believe Dany will not immediately come to the conclusion that Aegon is a pretender.

It makes no sense for Tyrion to keep his suspicions to himself. Before they reach Westeros he would have told Dany about them, because by doing so he shows himself absolutely loyal to her and worthy of great reward.

[chrisdaw]

Yes he will tell her as suits his agenda, but he has no proof and Dany will not reach a conclusion immediately. She may dwell on Tyrion's information and eventually arrive at the decision he's a Blackfyre or she may be against it until more information is revealed, the Tattered Prince/Pentos story thread the most likely source of information, or she may just be prompted to regard them enemies when Tyrion steals a dragon for Aegon.

[JMJ]

The problem I have with this theory is the reliance on the dragonbinder horn. These fools have no idea what to do other than blow in it. It's been alluded to that the horns are only part of the magic it takes to control a dragon. I doubt Victarion or Tyrion can wield that magic, although I'd give Tyrion an outside shot, since he's supposedly read up on the subject. This is your first step, and if that doesn't work, much of the subsequent story falls apart.

My prediction on the dragons in Meereen is that Vic gets those 3 stooges of his to blow them, but all it does is gets the dragons riled up, and they create general mayhem, served well-done.

[Rayn]

Aegon marries or is betrothed to Arianne [Aegon will be repeating after his father by marrying the princess of Dorne, Arianne has been built as a master seductress and is ambitious and Doran wants to marry a child into royalty, Jon believes Dorne is the key to conquering the seven kingdoms and with his greyscale his time to sit Rhaegar's son on the IT is running out, when word of of the circumstances that lead to Quentyn's death and that Dany is missing possibly dead reaches the ears of these players the match will be struck.] and so gains Dorne's spears, unbeknownst to the rest of the realm.

They are first cousins(if he really is aegon), there's no reason for her to marry him.

[Newstar]

I agree with a little bit of this (I think Aegon will marry Arianne and I think Aegon will take and hold KL, at least briefly).

Tyrion and Plumm stealing a dragon is strongly foreshadowed, Tyrion becoming king even more so

I agree about there being some foreshadowing Tyrion and Plumm stealing a dragon, but Tyrion becoming king? Lann the Clever doesn't foreshadow that; the only thing I can see that does foreshadow that is the line about Tyrion's shadow standing as tall as a king's for a moment, and that was from AGOT and could just as easily reference Tyrion briefly being extremely powerful as Hand in ACOK. I don't see any other foreshadowing for that outcome, and even if there is, I could never see it actually happening.

I don't see Tyrion allying with Aegon. Meeting again, maybe, but allying? I doubt it.

Lann the Clever could foreshadow Tyrion tricking whoever winds up with Casterly Rock in his absence (maybe Tyrek Lannister?) so that he gets it back again, but that's Casterly Rock, again, and not the Iron Throne.

I like your theories but I think you like Tyrion a bit much. I really doubt he's getting anywhere near the Iron Throne. I think his path will take him back to the Wall (or what's left of the watch) at some point.

I have serious problems with the North not figuring into this at all. I think Tyrion and Dany--either independently, or together--will make their way North to the Wall.

The North have their own issues to deal with and no-one will go traveling South with a weaker force to make enemies of dragons when they do not need to and have plenty else to do. The North will play no part in the dance.

So after the dance is over, then what for the North? Because things aren't looking good for them--and by extension for Westeros--if no dragons are coming to tip the scales.

I agree that there will be a second dance of the dragons; the recent Arianne sample chapter all but confirmed that. I just don't see how you can avoid tying the North into it.

[chrisdaw]

The problem I have with this theory is the reliance on the dragonbinder horn. These fools have no idea what to do other than blow in it. It's been alluded to that the horns are only part of the magic it takes to control a dragon. I doubt Victarion or Tyrion can wield that magic, although I'd give Tyrion an outside shot, since he's supposedly read up on the subject. This is your first step, and if that doesn't work, much of the subsequent story falls apart.

My prediction on the dragons in Meereen is that Vic gets those 3 stooges of his to blow them, but all it does is gets the dragons riled up, and they create general mayhem, served well-done.

Do you not consider it inevitable that the 3 dragons will be brought under control and taken to Westeros as part of Dany's forces at some point? If so then interchange Victarion as the person Tyrion steals the dragon from with whomever you wish. Victarion is there because he has the horn currently and the sample chapter suggests it's going to work, he seems like a prime candidate for being tricked and there's the monkey foreshadowing.

[JMJ]

Do you not consider it inevitable that the 3 dragons will be brought under control and taken to Westeros as part of Dany's forces at some point? If so then interchange Victarion as the person Tyrion steals the dragon from with whomever you wish. Victarion is there because he has the horn currently and the sample chapter suggests it's going to work, he seems like a prime candidate for being tricked and there's the monkey foreshadowing.

I don't consider the 3 dragons inevitable - very, very likely though. I think the horn will play a part, but it won't be the whole story. I also think it's not clear that Tyrion is one of the "dragon riders." Would be cool tho.

[chrisdaw]

They are first cousins(if he really is aegon), there's no reason for her to marry him.

There are multiple threads discussing this and I've read the arguments and don't agree with this sentiment. Doran is a player in the game of thrones, leaving a crown on the table for your enemies to collect is not how the game is played.

[RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon]

You really need to quote the forshadowing of Tyrion as King because I just can't see it. I think from the beggining he's been drawn to the wall and will be one of the few Southerners to realise the threat when it falls. The Game of Thrones won't matter to him then.

I don't agree with your characterisation of Dany either, I think she will be against Aegon almost from the start. She is not the same person she once was, I think she's probably going to emerge from Meeren a bloody conquerer and won't want to share the crown with someone as an equal. She'd marry Aegon if he was powerless without an army maybe, but with his own powerbase and success he is a threat to her whether he's real or fake.

I also really hope your wrong about the horn but I agree it is being bigged up like that. The horn just seems so Deus Ex I hope it actually turns out to be a load of rubbish.