Why do some people think Aegon is fake, v.3

[the Scorpion Knight]

I think the problem is that if he's successful in conquering Westeros, who will rule? Aegon's not mature enough and JonCon is on death's door. Does Aegon have anyone else who could help him that I'm possibly over-looking?

I think Aegon will find help in the starks and jaime

Why would a true Targaryen loyalist have sided with Rhaegar? A loyalist would have sided with his king, not with the king's heir.

because arys had been shown to be unfit for rule. I think the driveng the wedge was a wqakeup call to rhaegar

For all Aegon knows his mother was fully aware that her real son had been taken away, and she was covering for his escape.

i agree and as for for why rhaenys wasn't saved as long aegon was alive and viserys her claim was worthless

Why is he fake? It just doesn't add up.

Illaryio calls Viserys "Your Grace" and offers to let him stay in Pentos until the Darthaki are ready to sail to Westeros. Meanwhile Young Griff is getting ready to join up with Viserys and his army of Darthaki screamers. Viserys stupidly gets himself killed, if he'd listened to Illaryio he'd be in Pentos still waiting for his Darthaki army.

ever thought that the your grace was a joke, a mockery. viserys is a walking liability and telling him that fact might have caused serious trouble

You have a point. Why Elia would not want to save Rhaenys, too? And how did she know her children would be murdered?

as I said above. her claim was null and void as long aegon and viserys are alive.

varys must have thought the same as jon snow with his baby switch

[Toccs]

The reason I think he's fake is mostly for Varys supporting him. Varys put Aerys paranoia into overdrive and played him against his son Rhaegar. If he was a true Targaryen loyalist, he would have sided with Rhaegar over Aerys. And now I'm led to believe that Varys would risk everything on a man's son he helped destroy? I seriously doubt it.

Varys didn't cause Aerys paranoia or even set out to deliberately make it worse. He was hired to be the Master of Whisperers and that's exactly what he did. The Starks, Arryns, Tullys and Baratheons were forming a power bloc and Rhaegar was plotting to remove Aerys from the throne. Varys was just doing his job in reporting these things to Aerys. and in fact one could even argue that Aerys wasn't crazy paranoid at all since all of the things he feared were in fact true.

[Anima]

Varys didn't cause Aerys paranoia or even set out to deliberately make it worse. He was hired to be the Master of Whisperers and that's exactly what he did. The Starks, Arryns, Tullys and Baratheons were forming a power bloc and Rhaegar was plotting to remove Aerys from the throne. Varys was just doing his job in reporting these things to Aerys. and in fact one could even argue that Aerys wasn't crazy paranoid at all since all of the things he feared were in fact true.

Raeghar never really turned against his father it is just said in the book that near the end of the war even Raeghar could see that his father had gone mad.

[theREALjonsnow]

Varys didn't cause Aerys paranoia or even set out to deliberately make it worse. He was hired to be the Master of Whisperers and that's exactly what he did. The Starks, Arryns, Tullys and Baratheons were forming a power bloc and Rhaegar was plotting to remove Aerys from the throne. Varys was just doing his job in reporting these things to Aerys. and in fact one could even argue that Aerys wasn't crazy paranoid at all since all of the things he feared were in fact true.

see i think the exact opposite. Tywin tries to marry Cersei to Rhaegar at a tourney honoring the king then gets refused by Aerys in the most disrespectful way possible. Several months later Duskendale happens. So I don't believe that Varys arriving shortly after (feud between tywin/aerys & events of duskendale) is a coincidence. After Varys becomes M of W Aerys doesn't leave the Red Keep for like 5 or 6 years until ToH, so yea he was def going paranoid/crazy due to Varys influence. Selmy prolly tells it true when he says that Varys told Aerys that Rhaegar planned to remove his father from power ( if varys was on rhaegars side why do this? its def gonna cause problems & innocent people will pay price with their lives).

So ToH happens then Roberts Reb. the lanniters wait until the end taking all the spoils of war & tywin makes cersei queen thus putting future lions on Iron Throne. original intent of C+R

Rhaegar & the Starks,Arryns,Tullys & Baratheons were the least of Aerys worries. the lion (jamie/tywin) was the true threat. yes varys tells aerys NOT to open gate but at that point he knew Aerys desperately wants to trust tywin as his last hope so his warning will go ignored. he did this to save face & say "yall saw me tell him that wasnt a good idea." also if Varys was doing his job why did Aerys have jamie by his side during his final hours...

[Lummel]

Why do people think he's fake?

It all boils down to ''The Mummers Dragon''.

And maybe because he's a late comer and it was hard for some people to root for him.

For me it is because the Aegon swap story is implausible, not impossible but implausible, and doesn't make much sense when you consider the motivations and later behaviour of Varys and Illyrio.

The absolute basic thing to say that there is no proof that Aegon is a fake, but equally no proof that he is real. Connington believes that he is real, but Connington is late on the scene and has no way of knowing if Aegon is real or not. Varys talks as though he is real - but Varys is no unbiased observer. He has a dog in the fight, Aegon is his boy (but presumably not literally).

[Toccs]

Raeghar never really turned against his father it is just said in the book that near the end of the war even Raeghar could see that his father had gone mad.

He pretty much explicitly told Jaime he was going remove Aerys from power after his victory on the Trident and he skillfully maneuvered all the Kingsguard but Jaime away from Aerys side in order to make this easier.

see i think the exact opposite. Tywin tries to marry Cersei to Rhaegar at a tourney honoring the king then gets refused by Aerys in the most disrespectful way possible. Several months later Duskendale happens. So I don't believe that Varys arriving shortly after (feud between tywin/aerys & events of duskendale) is a coincidence. After Varys becomes M of W Aerys doesn't leave the Red Keep for like 5 or 6 years until ToH, so yea he was def going paranoid/crazy due to Varys influence. Selmy prolly tells it true when he says that Varys told Aerys that Rhaegar planned to remove his father from power ( if varys was on rhaegars side why do this? its def gonna cause problems & innocent people will pay price with their lives).

No you see Aerys sent specifically for Varys because of what happened at Duskendale. Aerys had just been betrayed, kidnapped and held in a dungeon by one of his vassal Lords and Tywin appeared to do nothing. Varys wasn't even in Westeros when that happened and something like that is bound to make anyone wonder about the loyalty of their other subjects hence the hiring of the Varys.

Rickard's Grand Alliance did exist, Rhaegar was plotting to remove Aerys and Tywin wasn't making any secret of his resentment of Aerys. All of those threats were very real and it was exactly what Varys was hired to do to tell Aerys about them. People like Barristan might say that Varys fuelled the paranoia, but people like Barristan make no secret of their disdain for Varys' very existence and so are speaking with a great degree of bias.

All Varys did was inform Aerys about valid plots against him and Aerys got paranoid because there were just so dammed many of them. And why wouldn't Varys side with Aerys over Rhaegar, Varys was only in King's Landing and wielding the power he had by Aerys orders, everyone else would have gotten rid of him straight away.

[theREALjonsnow]

i don't think you got what i was proposing... after the offer of cersei to rhaegar is refused by aerys, tywin realizes that his dream of a lannister on IR is caput so he seeks Varys the spider to help overthrow Targaryens. DoD was a plot to get Varys hired in first place by making Tywin look bad.badda bing badda boom 5 years later after RobReb you get queen cersei & varys keeps his position alongside the new king/queen & their new kingdom.

are you saying you think Varys had NO motive/goal when he first arrives in KL other than to work for Aerys by serving as his Master of Whispers? From 276AL to 281 AL the king never leaves the RK due to the spiders whispers (do you think any info given is impartial?). The king doesn't trust his son,hand,wife or any other lord so he brings in outside help. you dont think the help hasn't already be hired by somebody with alterior motives? uhhh like Tywin.

RobReb thus was caused in part by the lust/greed of the lion & whispers/planning of spider. 15 years later Varys the Master of Whispers to King Robert/Joeffry/Tommen Baratheon (how good of a job has he been doing as of late?) is pulling the strings behind the War of Five Kings. if he is doing it now, then he prolly was pulling the strings back then.

[Toccs]

Where do you see any evidence of Tywin and Varys working together? Tywin despises the people from the Free Cities and Varys told Aerys not to open the gates for Tywin. Tywin did have comeone in King's Landing but it was Pycelle not Varys.

How would any of this benefit Tywin in any way? Removing Aerys isn't going to make Rhaegar decide to marry Cersei

[theREALjonsnow]

my evidence was everything i previously mentioned. we can't go by any single POV to describe the events of past... so i piece together the story as i see it.

no but marrying her to the usurper that killed Rhaegar would? queen cersei followed by lannister after lannister. That would be Tywins legacy. he saved the lannister name from ruin & put the lion on the Iron Throne.

after Varys told Aerys NOT to open gate what happened? Aerys did it anway, Tywin then sacks & Aerys goes to ignite wildfire at which point Jamie slits his throat. Varys keeps his name clean. Being so smart he would have known what outcome would be before the situation arose & known how to distance himself from suspiscion. just like he does during the present. manipulate/divide/conquer... keep in mind just my opinion/theory varys past...

what role( what were his goals/who was he working with) do you think varys played in Roberts Rebellion? if he is NOW working to get aegon the first son of rhaegar back on Iron Throne for the good of the realm what was he doing then? it obviously wasn't keeping the targaryens alive & well...

[Toccs]

no but marrying her to the usurper that killed Rhaegar would? queen cersei followed by lannister after lannister. That would be Tywins legacy. he saved the lannister name from ruin & put the lion on the Iron Throne.

What Usurper? When Varys was hired it was still years before the Rebellion. So you're saying that Tywin somehow foresaw that there would be a rebellion to crown Robert, that through a series of circumstances Robert's betrothed would be out of the picture so he could marry Cersei and to that end he hired a master thief from the Free Cities to come to King's Landing at Aerys request?

If this was all Tywin's plan then why was it Aerys who hire Varys, how did Tywin know Aerys would do that? Why didn't Tywin get in on the rebellion from the start if his goal all along was to overthrow the Targs? It just doesn't make any sense.

after Varys told Aerys NOT to open gate what happened? Aerys did it anway, Tywin then sacks & Aerys goes to ignite wildfire at which point Jamie slits his throat. Varys keeps his name clean. Being so smart he would have known what outcome would be before the situation arose & known how to distance himself from suspiscion. just like he does during the present. manipulate/divide/conquer

Except that it was Pycelle who got the gates opened for Tywin, Varys had nothing to do with it.

[theREALjonsnow]

wow i know my 70 posts mean nothing to your 1200 but its just my opinion/theory of how past events took place. my whole theory centralizes on Varys being a master of how the game is played (being smarter than everybody else he can see 10 moves ahead). he can move his pieces into places then get them to act how he sees fit. my stuff makes sense if you read ASOIAF from my POV

[Toccs]

wow i know my 70 posts mean nothing to your 1200 but its just my opinion/theory of how past events took place. my whole theory centralizes on Varys being a master of how the game is played (being smarter than everybody else he can see 10 moves ahead). he can move his pieces into places then get them to act how he sees fit. my stuff makes sense if you read ASOIAF from my POV

Post count has got nothing to do with it. The theory you are proposing requires elevating Tywin and Varys to omniscient levels and makes a connection between the two that has no evidence in the text.

Of course it is all just opinion, I'm not mocking you or your theory, I'm just points out fallacies that I can see in it.

[theREALjonsnow]

you may think you are pointing out fallacies but you are just trying to be right. while you may perceive mistakes in my theory, i do not so whatever

ADWD epilogue Kevan Lannister: If Aerys had agreed to marry her to Rhaegar, how many deaths might have been avoided? seems kevan knew something that many others did not

there are plenty of connections between Varys & Tywin in the text. i do not believe them to be omniscient just extremely intelligent with tremendous foresight making them capable of long-game accomplishments.

[Toccs]

you may think you are pointing out fallacies but you are just trying to be right. while you may perceive mistakes in my theory, i do not so whatever

ADWD epilogue Kevan Lannister: If Aerys had agreed to marry her to Rhaegar, how many deaths might have been avoided? seems kevan knew something that many others did not

there are plenty of connections between Varys & Tywin in the text. i do not believe them to be omniscient just extremely intelligent with tremendous foresight making them capable of long-game accomplishments.

How does Kevan know something others don't, everyone knows that Tywin tried to marry Cersei to Rhaegar and Aerys refused.

So if I understand you right, you are saying that Tywin hired Varys to fuel Aerys paranoia. Ok, so I say to what end? Driving Aerys mad and possibly getting him overthrown would only result in Rhaegar ascending the throne already married.

There's also the fact that it was Aerys who hired Varys to come to King's Landing. So are you suggesting that Tywin hired Varys to stay in Pentos until Aerys decided to hire him?

Even so, how does any of this help make Cersei Queen which is what you propose Tywin's goal was all along?

When Varys was hired, the Rebellion was still several years away, and when it did start it was largely due to the actions of Rhaegar and Brandon Stark, two people who niether Tywin nor Varys had any control over.

If the overthrow of the Targs was Tywin's goal, why did he wait to join the rebellion until it was obvious who was going to win? Also how would a rebellion to put Robert on the Throne then equal marrying Cersei to Robert, when Robert was already betrothed to Lyanna. There is just no way Tywin could have known that Lyanna would be out the picture by rebellions end.

Then we have Varys explicitly warning Aerys not to open the gates for Tywin,, because as master of whisperers and extremely good at the game he probably already knew exactly what Tywin was about when he showed up. You can't say it was all reverse psychology because we don't even know that Aerys did order the gates open, all we know is that Pycelle who was in Tywin's pocket opened them for him.

It's just not possible for Varys and Tywin to have been able to see how it would all go down without being omniscient.

If you're going to propose a the theory that Tywin and Varys were working together and planned the entire thing, then it's not unreasonable for me to ask for some sort of evidence from the text that at least points in that direction. From what I've seen you haven't yet provided that.

[The Bastard of Walton]

Aegon is the mummers Dragon.

I believe Jon Connigton is'nt aware of this & truely believes he is Rhaegars son. But it will end up being part of Varys master plan.

When Daenerys arrives with her Dragons Aegon will be exposed as a Blackfyre pretender.

Only one of Rhaegars sons survived & its Jon Snow.

[theREALjonsnow]

How does Kevan know something others don't, everyone knows that Tywin tried to marry Cersei to Rhaegar and Aerys refused.

So if I understand you right, you are saying that Tywin hired Varys to fuel Aerys paranoia. Ok, so I say to what end? Driving Aerys mad and possibly getting him overthrown would only result in Rhaegar ascending the throne already married.

There's also the fact that it was Aerys who hired Varys to come to King's Landing. So are you suggesting that Tywin hired Varys to stay in Pentos until Aerys decided to hire him?

Even so, how does any of this help make Cersei Queen which is what you propose Tywin's goal was all along?

When Varys was hired, the Rebellion was still several years away, and when it did start it was largely due to the actions of Rhaegar and Brandon Stark, two people who niether Tywin nor Varys had any control over.

If the overthrow of the Targs was Tywin's goal, why did he wait to join the rebellion until it was obvious who was going to win? Also how would a rebellion to put Robert on the Throne then equal marrying Cersei to Robert, when Robert was already betrothed to Lyanna. There is just no way Tywin could have known that Lyanna would be out the picture by rebellions end.

Then we have Varys explicitly warning Aerys not to open the gates for Tywin,, because as master of whisperers and extremely good at the game he probably already knew exactly what Tywin was about when he showed up. You can't say it was all reverse psychology because we don't even know that Aerys did order the gates open, all we know is that Pycelle who was in Tywin's pocket opened them for him.

It's just not possible for Varys and Tywin to have been able to see how it would all go down without being omniscient.

If you're going to propose a the theory that Tywin and Varys were working together and planned the entire thing, then it's not unreasonable for me to ask for some sort of evidence from the text that at least points in that direction. From what I've seen you haven't yet provided that.

i provided plenty of evidence from the text that i used to develop my theory. if you disagree with my assumptions then you disagree but it doesn't mean that either one of us is GRRM... i think the events surronding DoD,ToH & RR have yet to be fully described or explained so i choose to fill in the blanks where i see fit also i don't like to go by how characters describe events taking place in their pov as GOSPEL. i came to a valid conclusion through my interpretation of the text just like anybody else who is a capable reader. Only one of us is right... i think Tywin & Varys conspired together to achieve a certain outcome from Roberts Rebellion. Varys knows everything about everyone. so if Rhaegar had some crazy notion about lyanna i'm sure varys knew about it. if pycelle was working for Tywin im sure varys knew about it. knowledge is power & varys knows everything. if you disagree then thats fine but the odor coming from this forum is making me gag. somebody thinks there shit don't stink but it REEKS so im outie 5000

[Jason Ironborn.]

I'm probably in the minority in that I really want Aegon to be real, but can't imagine he is. The Blackfyre theory has a lot of clues pointing towards it, and him being Illyrio's son would make a lot of sense.

But I like YG and want him to actually be Aegon. He adds an interesting new dynamic.

[Toccs]

i think the events surronding DoD,ToH & RR have yet to be fully described or explained so i choose to fill in the blanks where i see fit also i don't like to go by how characters describe events taking place in their pov as GOSPEL.

I'm fine with filling in blanks and obviously no one character's thoughts can be taken as gospel. But to fill in blanks with something as major as Tywin and Varys secretly working together needs to be supported by stuff from the text that hints towards it. From a literary point of view there is no point in having some secret conspiracy like that if there is no clues there for astute readers to figure out.

I'm not just talking about speculation based on lack of conflicting evidence, I'm talking about actual textual evidence that can be read as connecting Tywin and Varys. Before a theory can be formed on how they were working together it first needs to be established that they were.

i think Tywin & Varys conspired together to achieve a certain outcome from Roberts Rebellion. Varys knows everything about everyone. so if Rhaegar had some crazy notion about lyanna i'm sure varys knew about it. if pycelle was working for Tywin im sure varys knew about it. knowledge is power & varys knows everything.

That's exactly what I'm talking about by saying that the theory requires Varys to be omniscient. Personally I am reluctant to ascribe that level of awaredness to any character. We've seen Varys get caught off guard before.

i provided plenty of evidence from the text that i used to develop my theory.

Actually all you did was say "Tywin must have known X" and "Varys must have known X" so therefore "Tywin and Varys must have been working together". When I say evidence from the text, I mean something actually from the text that can be looked at and read as Tywin and Varys having some sort of relationship.

if you disagree with my assumptions then you disagree but it doesn't mean that either one of us is GRRM... . . .

i came to a valid conclusion through my interpretation of the text just like anybody else who is a capable reader. . . .

if you disagree then thats fine but the odor coming from this forum is making me gag. somebody thinks there shit don't stink but it REEKS so im outie 5000

I'm perfectly happy to agree to disagree. I've been viewing this entire thread as a discussion, have you been seeing it as an argument?

Why post a theory if you don't want people to dissect it?

Only one of us is right...

Well there you are quite wrong, because it's entirely possible that neither of us is right.

[Maester Domeric]

im sure this has been convered before ad nauseam but why does "Mummer's Dragon" imply hes fake? Perhaps its too superficial a reading but I always just to it to mean it was simply just "Mummer's" as in possessive, Dragon belonging to a mummer, which we all know Varys has some training as. Now it could be a double entendre implying that he infact a fake targaryen, but I personally didn't get that. I wonder if peoples perception of Aegon is tainted because of his late entrance, supposed significance, and perceived undercutting of Dany's plot arc rather than some large/convincing body of evidence in the text that actual calls his identity into question. On the t]other hand perhaps Occam's razor has no place in analysis of Martin's writing, but regardless why the extra assumption that Mummer's Dragon is a double entendre?

[the Scorpion Knight]

im sure this has been convered before ad nauseam but why does "Mummer's Dragon" imply hes fake? Perhaps its too superficial a reading but I always just to it to mean it was simply just "Mummer's" as in possessive, Dragon belonging to a mummer, which we all know Varys has some training as. Now it could be a double entendre implying that he infact a fake targaryen, but I personally didn't get that. I wonder if peoples perception of Aegon is tainted because of his late entrance, supposed significance, and perceived undercutting of Dany's plot arc rather than some large/convincing body of evidence in the text that actual calls his identity into question. On the t]other hand perhaps Occam's razor has no place in analysis of Martin's writing, but regardless why the extra assumption that Mummer's Dragon is a double entendre?

not to mention it could alos mean someone pretending to be a dragon(quentyn in a way) or even a dragon pretening to be someone else (jon snow)

or that Aegon ist the mummer's dragon but the sun's son (his mother is elia martell)