Crackpot theory: Could Melisandre have had something to do with Jon Snow's 'assassination'?

[Fetch me a block]

IIRC, Jon did do the ol' switcheroo with Mance's baby and Gilly's baby, which could have angered Melisandre. But this alone isn't enough for an assassination attempt.

Maybe if Melisandre had orchestrated it it would explain why Bowen n' co didn't look like they wanted to do it, thus the crying.

The strongest evidence for it is that with the conditions almost perfectly matching the TPtwP prophecy, it could be a way to speed up the Azor Ahai process.

However, it could be impossible, as Melisandre saw it coming anyway, sort of.

[Young Nan]

The thing is, Mel doesn't think he is AA even when it is shoved in her face, because she sucks at reading the flames.

"I keep asking for a glimpse of AA and all Rh'llor shows me is Snow"--- Rh'llor is probably face-palming like "OMG Mel how are you not getting this"

She is also willing to glamour Stannis' sword to be Lightbringer, then act like it really is the prophecied sword, even though she knows perfectly well that she glamoured it. She's willfully ignorant to the fact that it ISNT Stannis. So I doubt her orchestrating something to bring about the Azor-Ahai transformation for Jon, when she wants so badly for it to be Stannis that she's willing to lie to herself about the signs.

[Beric Zoolander]

I think if she wanted to orchestrate an assassination of Jon she could have. But I think she was in the business of keeping Jon alive, she tried to warn him to keep Ghost close, there is only so much she could do (daggers in the night and all that). She equated him to Stannis in her POV, I don't think she wanted him dead at all.

[Calthrop]

Great post! I actually don't see this as being quite so crackpot. I may go further in depth later when I can grab my notes, but a quick bit of my reasoning in addition to some of the things mentioned in the OP:

-We know she desires king's blood, and if you believe some variant of the Northern Conspiracy is true, this gives her the king's blood at the wall she so desires

-Many speculate that Mance had a hand in the pink letter (or Stannis); both of course have strong ties to Mel with Mance actually owing her his life in some sense

-John's reaction being stabbed was eerily similar to Renly's (although that was the Shadow's blade, it's not out of the realm of possibility that she has somehow enchanted their daggers and drawn a similar effect). Perhaps she has plans on Jon surviving the stabbing (through said enchantment, or on resurrecting him somehow as most speculate)?

-She could be trying to recreate the setting for the prophecy to be fulfilled as mentioned in the OP. Many have mentioned that while the tears, the shield, etc. fit the prophecy it still seems a bit 'weak'...almost as if someone known for misinterpretation of prophecies was trying to set it up...

Let's try to flesh this one out!

[Theda Baratheon]

We got her POV. She doesn't want Jon dead.

[Young Nan]

We got her POV. She doesn't want Jon dead.

This ^ . She thinks about how she can protect him or get him to believe her about his danger. Unless she lies ti herself in her own thoughts, she wants Jon alive and is trying to keep him that way.

So yeah, this theory is pretty crackpot

[PrimeRhaegar]

wouldn't that be a twist but i doubt it unless she did it to fully gain his trust assuming that he serves and doesn't need to be resurrected

[Fetch me a block]

Great post! I actually don't see this as being quite so crackpot. I may go further in depth later when I can grab my notes, but a quick bit of my reasoning in addition to some of the things mentioned in the OP:

-We know she desires king's blood, and if you believe some variant of the Northern Conspiracy is true, this gives her the king's blood at the wall she so desires

-Many speculate that Mance had a hand in the pink letter (or Stannis); both of course have strong ties to Mel with Mance actually owing her his life in some sense

-John's reaction being stabbed was eerily similar to Renly's (although that was the Shadow's blade, it's not out of the realm of possibility that she has somehow enchanted their daggers and drawn a similar effect). Perhaps she has plans on Jon surviving the stabbing (through said enchantment, or on resurrecting him somehow as most speculate)?

-She could be trying to recreate the setting for the prophecy to be fulfilled as mentioned in the OP. Many have mentioned that while the tears, the shield, etc. fit the prophecy it still seems a bit 'weak'...almost as if someone known for misinterpretation of prophecies was trying to set it up...

Let's try to flesh this one out!

Yes, I mean, she keeps warning Jon that he was in danger, maybe it is sort of like when Littlefinger says to Ned "Don't trust me".

[Fetch me a block]

We got her POV. She doesn't want Jon dead.

Maybe she could eventually see him as a threat to Stannis and have him killed. And she keeps warning him about his death, maybe this could be a tool to make him anxious.

[Mammothsbane]

Maybe she could eventually see him as a threat to Stannis and have him killed. And she keeps warning him about his death, maybe this could be a tool to make him anxious.

She warned him to keep him alive.. not make him paranoid. Jon dismisses her warnings because he thinks she is terrible at reading her flames after the Alys/Arya mix-up. Mel is trying to keep him alive.

[TheGreyKraken]

She warned him to keep him alive.. not make him paranoid. Jon dismisses her warnings because he thinks she is terrible at reading her flames after the Alys/Arya mix-up. Mel is trying to keep him alive.

This right here.

We saw Mel's chapter and we saw that she didn't know the truth behind Snow.

Mel knows that Jon has a use to Stannis and basically warns him of an attack in which he ignores.

The NW don't like Mel, I'm pretty sure Bowen's group dislike her much more than the others and wouldn't take orders from her.

[Balerion06]

The strongest evidence for it is that with the conditions almost perfectly matching the TPtwP prophecy, it could be a way to speed up the Azor Ahai process.

A roast ham fits all the conditions for the PTWP prophecy.

Only goes to show that it's vague and generic horseshit.

[Snark_Tamer]

The thing is, Mel doesn't think he is AA even when it is shoved in her face, because she sucks at reading the flames.

"I keep asking for a glimpse of AA and all Rh'llor shows me is Snow"--- Rh'llor is probably face-palming like "OMG Mel how are you not getting this"

HA! You just made my day. I've been thinking from the beginning that NONE of the signs were actually about Stannis (I think all that stone dragon kill a king stuff was for Dany)

...

-We know she desires king's blood, and if you believe some variant of the Northern Conspiracy is true, this gives her the king's blood at the wall she so desires

...

But for this to work, doesn't she have to BURN the king in her way of thinking?

We got her POV. She doesn't want Jon dead.

Again... maybe only because SHE wants to orchestrate and use it. So it isn't that she doesn't want him dead, but that she doesn't want him dead NOW.

[julyleo]

I'm so happy somebody else thinks that Mel may have had a hand in Jon's assassination.I just finished reading Dance and when I read that scene there is a line "Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not seem to get the sword free of its scabbard." That line struck me as weird because a split second earlier he was able to grab Wick and on top of that they all seemed to be sad even Bowen Marsh which makes me think that somebody may have been controlling them as well to some degree.The only person with such power is Mel.

[Direwolf of the Starks]

I originally thought she was behind because she was trying to convince him to become lord of Winterfell but she also wanted him to burn the weirwood tree. So having him killed (thereby freeing him from his vows) and then bringin him back from the otherwise with the Power of Rholler which would help make him believe in her religion. It would be killing two birds with one stone. But now I just think it was Bowen marsh and co acting out of fear

[julyleo]

I originally thought she was behind because she was trying to convince him to become lord of Winterfell but she also wanted him to burn the weirwood tree. So having him killed (thereby freeing him from his vows) and then bringin him back from the otherwise with the Power of Rholler which would help make him believe in her religion. It would be killing two birds with one stone. But now I just think it was Bowen marsh and co acting out of fear

Ok but why was Marsh crying and then Jon was able to grab the knife after getting stabbed. Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. “For the Watch.” He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free."fishy and more than a disagreement To me it just seems beyond fishy and more than just feeling like you think the LC is making poor choices.

[Prince of the Green]

Bowen remarked that what he was doing was for the Watch; makes me think that someone in the know of the GNC has gotten word to Castle Black that they will send whatever help they can offer if Jon is 'released' from his vows.

[SeanF]

Melisandre wants Jon in her bed, not dead.

But, she could have something to do with the Pink Letter, forcing Jon to overtly side with Stannis.

[cynicist]

Rh'llor is probably face-palming like "OMG Mel how are you not getting this"

Rofl that is great to imagine. It does seem like she wants to believe she was right about Stannis so badly that she is choosing to ignore all the signs pointing elsewhere. I can't wait to see her reaction to finally realizing Stannis isn't the one, she will be devastated I have no doubt.

I don't think she had anything to do with John's assassination but I do think there is more to it than simply a few disgruntled Night's Watch members killing their commander because he let wildlings over the wall. I mean it is pretty obvious to everyone there that the wights/Others are the true threat, so I just find it hard to believe that Jon was killed for wanting to strengthen the defense of the wall. No matter how much they hate wildings, murder seems like a pretty severe reaction. I mean it would be one thing if wildings were fighting amongst them, but they seem to be behaving themselves. Of course I could be completely wrong and they could just be bigoted assholes, but that level of ignorance would be depressing.

[Queen Daenerys]

I don't think it's crackpot, in fact I've always thought it might be possible. I don't believe she wanted him dead, just injured enough so she could gain his trust by healing/ reviving him with the help of her magic/ R'hllor. I'm not sure she "convinced" Marsh and co to stab him, but rather controlled them by magic, if it's in her power (and I'm pretty sure it is).

She was able to break the connection between Jon and Ghost once, and doesn't she have some power over Mance via the ruby? It could explain why Marsh was crying (maybe trying to fight her power?).