Illyrio Mopatis and the seemingly numerous flaws in his plan

[Reek Da Villain]

I'm getting more and more confused about Illyrio Mopatis and his end goal.

At the start of the series his support seems to lie with Viserys, though Aegon would have been ahead of him in the line of succession. I understand that for the plot to progress we could not know of Aegon's existence. Still...

In DwD Illyrio makes mention of a "dragon with three heads" when telling Tyrion of the savior that is to come. Now, in this case, is "a dragon with three heads" supposed to reference the prophecy that Rhaegar hoped to fulfill or is it simply a reference to House Targaryen and their coat of arms? If it references the former then does that mean Illyrio knows who the three heads represent (remember, Viserys is dead and there are only two known Targaryens)? Did he know all along or did he discover something we have yet to notice?

With that in mind, why did Illyrio broker a marriage between Daenerys and Khal Drogo in attempt to win Viserys the throne? That doesn't make much sense to me. If his intention was to seat Viserys on the Iron Throne, why not wed him to someone from a noble family in Westeros that supported House Targaryen, like Margaery Tyrell (for example)? Viserys had a reputation of being the beggar king in the Free Cities. How would it look if his younger sister and her horselord husband won the Iron Throne for him. Moreover, why would Khal Drogo conquer Westeros and then turn it over to Viserys? Westeros would be a gold mine for a large khalasar; plenty of riches and people to sell to slavers. Illyrio did not do Viserys any favors.

Illyrio did not have Daenerys' best interests in mind when he arranged for her to be sold (essentially) to Khal Drogo either. But yet, he sends Ser Barristan and Strong Belwas to aid her and bring her to Pentos. Did he choose to support Viserys initially and then realize Daenerys was who his efforts should be directed? If so, then what of Aegon? And why did Illyrio under-sell Daenerys to the Golden Company? Furthermore, who is he indebted to and why (he alludes to this when speaking to Tyrion)?

Is Illyrio an idiot or is there a method to his madness?

[The Storm King]

He just wanted Dany and Viserys to set things up for Aegon to come and take it all in the end

[The Dornishman's Wife]

An answer that explains Illyrio and Varys' puzzling behaviour is that they don't care about Targs at all, they care about Blackfyres, with Aegon being a Blackfyre (and usually Varys and Serra as well). Dany and Viserys were intended as a decoy and possibly as a source of swords and/or chaos which Aegon should take advantage of.

Dany hatching dragons changed the game a bit, so the plan was to have Aegon meet & marry her and return home with +3 to dragons and +10 to coolness. Aegon changing his mind means they have to play it by the ear yet again, either insuring that Dany will follow Aegon and support him or trying to prevent her from coming to Westeros at all.

There are some hints about Aegon being fake, e.g. the "mummer's dragon" being prophecied in the House of the Undying as a lie Dany has to dispell, Illyrio's comments to Tyrion or the story of the sign of the Clanking Dragon. Together with explaining Varys and Illyrio, it seems to make for a viable theory.

[Bolivar]

I don't buy the whole "he wanted to have everyone in Westeros to fight a war so they could get ready to fight another war" theory. I think Illyrio's expected and probably wanted most if not all of this to happen.

As I said in the Varys thread, I think they're just in the business of stealing kingdoms and selling them back to their owners.

[Pod The Impaler]

I'm getting more and more confused about Illyrio Mopatis and his end goal.

At the start of the series his support seems to lie with Viserys, though Aegon would have been ahead of him in the line of succession. I understand that for the plot to progress we could not know of Aegon's existence. Still...

In DwD Illyrio makes mention of a "dragon with three heads" when telling Tyrion of the savior that is to come. Now, in this case, is "a dragon with three heads" supposed to reference the prophecy that Rhaegar hoped to fulfill or is it simply a reference to House Targaryen and their coat of arms? If it references the former then does that mean Illyrio knows who the three heads represent (remember, Viserys is dead and there are only two known Targaryens)? Did he know all along or did he discover something we have yet to notice?

With that in mind, why did Illyrio broker a marriage between Daenerys and Khal Drogo in attempt to win Viserys the throne? That doesn't make much sense to me. If his intention was to seat Viserys on the Iron Throne, why not wed him to someone from a noble family in Westeros that supported House Targaryen, like Margaery Tyrell (for example)? Viserys had a reputation of being the beggar king in the Free Cities. How would it look if his younger sister and her horselord husband won the Iron Throne for him. Moreover, why would Khal Drogo conquer Westeros and then turn it over to Viserys? Westeros would be a gold mine for a large khalasar; plenty of riches and people to sell to slavers. Illyrio did not do Viserys any favors.

Illyrio did not have Daenerys' best interests in mind when he arranged for her to be sold (essentially) to Khal Drogo either. But yet, he sends Ser Barristan and Strong Belwas to aid her and bring her to Pentos. Did he choose to support Viserys initially and then realize Daenerys was who his efforts should be directed? If so, then what of Aegon? And why did Illyrio under-sell Daenerys to the Golden Company? Furthermore, who is he indebted to and why (he alludes to this when speaking to Tyrion)?

Is Illyrio an idiot or is there a method to his madness?

I think the answer to a lot of this is the nature of Pentos itself. Illyrio does not rule Pentos; it is ruled by a an oligarchy of Magisters. It has princes, but we know they are largely ceremonial and we know what happens to them. All in all, Pentos is a very cutthroat place, and Illyrio knows this most of all, because he worked his way up from penniless sellsword to Magister through bloodshed and treachery (along with his buddy Varys). Pentos is an odd place in one other respect - it lost a war to Braavos at some point, so it cannot have slaves officially, but still basically does like the other Free Cities south of it.

So I think Illyrio - like the Tattered Prince - sees he ultimately has no future if he remains as he is with the status-quo order of Pentos. This is why he has his eye on Westeros. The man is good at trade, and brimming with wealth, but I think he wants more. The things he says to Tyrion indicate he would like to be a powerful lord in Westeros - Master of Coin or maybe Master of Ships would suit him, and perhaps allow him to build a trade fleet and war fleet to dominate the trade across the Narrow Sea. (Like Littlefinger, he may be self-serving, and certainly fosters that image, but he thinks big.)

To ever be granted such an exalted position in Westeros, of course he has to displace those people who are already in power there under the Baratheon crown. The exiles (Viserys, Daeneys, Aegon) provide an opportunity for that. Break the current power structure of Westeros, then when it is sapped of strength, invade. The Dothraki army under Khal Drogo was clearly part of this idea - but I doubt it was all of it. Illyrio is wealthy enough to rent a sellsword company or two. He has some Unsullied as guards, so maybe he planned to buy some of them as well. That, and protect the remaining Targaryens in Essos. That's his part. At the same time, Varys undermines the Iron Throne from within, and prepares Westerosi allies for the Targaryen resurgence. (And let's not forget the Dorne plot to wed Viserys to Arianne, which may or may not have been tied to this conspiracy.)

Maybe, as some suggest, he and Varys are Blackfyres or supporters of them, or Aegon is.

Of course, this plan got thrown into chaos, thanks to: Viserys getting himself killed; Dany hatching actual dragons and then going the wrong direction; Dany burning the Undying in Qarth and waging a sudden crusade against slavery in Slaver's bay, which upsets the ruling powers all the way from Qarth to Pentos. I am not sure how much of the Aegon part of the plot Illyrio was involved in, but that too went sideways when Aegon and the Golden Company departed for Westeros instead of making themselves available (or at least known) to Daenerys first.

Though it all, Illyrio and Varys seem to be quite adaptive. Their plans are luckily not set in stone, but clearly even they are stretched to the breaking point by it. Tyrion killing Tywin provided them with an unforeseen asset. The Ironborn sending their fleet into the region is probably unexpected. Quentyn being sent to marry Dany and then dying ? That likely flew under their radar too.

I say probably though, because another thing we do not know is how much precognitive / prophetic ability Illyrio and Varys have access to. If they do have some ties to such supernatural forces, there remains the possibility that they may be doing everything in furtherance of the Great Prophecy, with their concern being about the rise of the Others, the Azor Ahai rebirth, the Doom of Valyria, etc.

[BloodyGoatHoat]

I say probably though, because another thing we do not know is how much precognitive / prophetic ability Illyrio and Varys have access to. If they do have some ties to such supernatural forces, there remains the possibility that they may be doing everything in furtherance of the Great Prophecy, with their concern being about the rise of the Others, the Azor Ahai rebirth, the Doom of Valyria, etc.

Doesn't Varys hate magic?

[The Fourth Head]

What I don't understand is that Magistar Ilyrio Mopatis is filthy rich, and ever since LF's trip to the Vale, the Small Council has been crying out for someone clever with money to fill the master of coin role, just as urgently as it needs to repay it's debts. Offering to buy a place on the small council was surely an easy way for Mopatis to wield political influence in Westeros? With children and fools running the kingdom, by AFFC, the gaping void of talent at the top was clear for all to see. Tommen would be just as beholden to Mopatis for paying off the Thrones debts and staving off war with Braavos, as Viserys or Aegon would have been for him supporting their claims financially.

The only motive I can see for why Mopatis is playing such a long game, is if he intends being King himself, or more likely, having his son be king with him as the hand, to get revenge after years of Blackfyre failure. To simply be after political power and influence, he is playing a weirdly convoluted game...

[Pod The Impaler]

Doesn't Varys hate magic?

Varys says he hates magic.

Varys says lots of things.

Really, his statement can be taken only to mean that he understands that magic exists and dark magic is bad news for all. And even that much assumes he was not telling Tyrion all that to provoke a specific emotional response.

[juanml82]

The original war plan, as stated by someone in the Golden Company, seemed to involve Khal Drogo joining the Golden Company. How would Danny affect that since he claims he expected her to die in the Dothraki Sea is unknown. I don't remember, but I don't think Illyrio wanted Viserys to go with Drogo to Vaes Dothrak. And Jorah Mormont alone wasn't going to sway Drogo.

Maybe it was his arrangement with Drogo all along? Only that Drogo didn't care much about it? I don't think there is a sensible explanation about how he expected to have Khal Drogo's khalassar joining the Golden Company.

Viserys and Drogo's death, the dissolution of Drogo's khalassar and the birth of the dragons means that plan isn't feasible anymore. So Illyrio switches to send people to go looking for Danny and her dragons so he can get Danny under his umbrella. Then again, Danny has plans of her own.

I don't he originally expected the Dothraki to survive, as a cohesive force, in Westeros. Instead, IMHO, he thought Khal Drogo's khalassar would be bleed dry while supporting the Golden Company, so any Dothraki survivor won't challenge Aegon's rule.

[Sansa_Stark]

Doesn't Varys hate magic?

I think Illyrio called him a sorcerer in AGOT and Varys had no problem with this.

[Mr Smith]

Ever since finishing ADWD, I've come to see Varys and Illyrio as opportunists. Just the fact that they were working with Dany and Viserys on the one hand and Aegon on the other tells you that they understand that they can't rely on one grand scheme, because, as Dany has proven, people are unpredictable. As for Varys' claim that he serves "the realm", I actually feel like that might be true. I was a sceptic for a long time, until a recent interview with Martin where he was asked who was the most misunderstood character and he replied "Probably Varys". Illyrio on the other hand, is in it for the coppers. Otherwise why would he bother? Unless the theory that Aegon is his son is true, he really has no reason to be interested in Westeros at all other than greed.

[The Fourth Dragon Head]

As many people have pointed out before, if Varys is truly doing everything for the realm, he's doing a really bad job. Turning Stark on Lannister, as he told Illyrio he was doing, has ravaged the countryside and made Westeros woefully unprepared for winter.

[SummerSphinx]

In ADWD, Tyrion marvels at all the resources put into educating Young Griff. Languages, a Septa, a Halfmaester, swordfighting, etc.

So why put so much energy into grooming Aegon and so little into Aegon's uncle and aunt? Dany repeatedly mentions that her older brother was the source of most of her info. No Septa and Maester for Dany and Viserys? Illyrio could afford it.

Perhaps Griff/Connington saw to Young Griff's education, and Varys & Illyrio just helped them escape? But Varys seemed so proud of Aegon's upbringing when bragging to Kevan.

Even if Aegon was the primary heir, Viseys and Dany were still in line. Dany wasn't that much younger than Aegon.

My point is simply that Illyrio was not grooming Viserys and Dany the way it seemed Aegon was being groomed.

I don't think Illyrio really wanted to help Viserys. I think marrying Dany to Khal Drogo was a way of getting Viseys to think that he was being helped to an army. I think Viseys was bound to get angry and lose it, and the Dothraki response was unlikely to work out well for V.

I think the surprise was Dany, the dragons, and all that followed.

[Katerine459]

Just wanted to insert this, as it may help (or not, but regardless, it is relevant). This is from GoT:

Arya peered over the edge and felt the cold black breath on her face. Far below, she saw the light of a single torch, small as the flame of a candle. Two men, she made out. Their shadows writhed against the sides of the well, tall as giants. She could hear their voices, echoing up the shaft.

“… found one bastard,” one said. “The rest will come soon. A day, two days, a fortnight …”

“And when he learns the truth , what will he do?” a second voice asked in the liquid accents of the Free Cities.

“The gods alone know,” the first voice said. Arya could see a wisp of grey smoke drifting up off the torch, writhing like a snake as it rose. “The fools tried to kill his son, and what’s worse, they made a mummer’s farce of it. He’s not a man to put that aside. I warn you, the wolf and lion will soon be at each other’s throats, whether we will it or no.”

“Too soon, too soon,” the voice with the accent complained. “What good is war now? We are not ready. Delay.”

“As well bid me stop time. Do you take me for a wizard?”

The other chuckled. “No less.” Flames licked at the cold air. The tall shadows were almost on top of her. An instant later the man holding the torch climbed into her sight, his companion beside him. Arya crept back away from the well, dropped to her stomach, and flattened herself against the wall. She held her breath as the men reached the top of the steps.

“What would you have me do?” asked the torchbearer, a stout man in a leather half cape. Even in heavy boots, his feet seemed to glide soundlessly over the ground. A round scarred face and a stubble of dark beard showed under his steel cap, and he wore mail over boiled leather, and a dirk and shortsword at his belt. It seemed to Arya there was something oddly familiar about him.

“If one Hand can die, why not a second?” replied the man with the accent and the forked yellow beard. “You have danced the dance before, my friend.” He was no one Arya had ever seen before, she was certain of it. Grossly fat, yet he seemed to walk lightly, carrying his weight on the balls of his feet as a water dancer might . His rings glimmered in the torchlight , red-gold and pale silver, crusted with rubies, sapphires, slitted yellow tiger eyes. Every finger wore a ring; some had two.

“Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other,” the scarred man said as they stepped out into the hall. Still as stone, Arya told herself, quiet as a shadow. Blinded by the blaze of their own torch, they did not see her pressed flat against the stone, only a few feet away.

“Perhaps so,” the forked beard replied, pausing to catch his breath after the long climb. “Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages.”

The man with the torch pushed at something. Arya heard a deep rumbling. A huge slab of rock, red in the torchlight, slid down out of the ceiling with a resounding crash that almost made her cry out. Where the entry to the well had been was nothing but stone, solid and unbroken.

“If he does not bestir himself soon, it may be too late,” the stout man in the steel cap said. “This is no longer a game for two players, if ever it was. Stannis Baratheon and Lysa Arryn have fled beyond my reach, and the whispers say they are gathering swords around them. The Knight of Flowers writes Highgarden, urging his lord father to send his sister to court. The girl is a maid of fourteen, sweet and beautiful and tractable, and Lord Renly and Ser Loras intend that Robert should bed her, wed her, and make a new queen. Littlefinger … the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing. Yet Lord Stark’s the one who troubles my sleep. He has the bastard, he has the book, and soon enough he’ll have the truth. And now his wife has abducted Tyrion Lannister, thanks to Littlefinger’s meddling. Lord Tywin will take that for an outrage, and Jaime has a queer affection for the Imp. If the Lannisters move north, that will bring the Tullys in as well. Delay, you say. Make haste, I reply . Even the finest of jugglers cannot keep a hundred balls in the air forever.”

“You are more than a juggler , old friend. You are a true sorcerer. All I ask is that you work your magic awhile longer.” They started down the hall in the direction Arya had come, past the room with the monsters.

“What I can do, I will,” the one with the torch said softly. “I must have gold, and another fifty birds.”

-- Martin, George R.R. (2011-03-22). George R. R. Martin's A Game of Thrones 4-Book Bundle: A Song of Ice and Fire Series: A Game of Thrones, A Clash of Kings, A Storm of Swords, and A Feast for Crows (Song of Ice & Fire) (Kindle Locations 6481-6520). Random House, Inc.. Kindle Edition.

[The Storm King]

As many people have pointed out before, if Varys is truly doing everything for the realm, he's doing a really bad job. Turning Stark on Lannister, as he told Illyrio he was doing, has ravaged the countryside and made Westeros woefully unprepared for winter.

He's doing it for the realm cos he thinks aegon is best suited for the realm. Varys and mopatis were just setting the stage for aegons arrival

[Whitering]

The whole thing and reasoning by the GC proved what dumbasses they are. They complained about Illyrio and Varys' continuous change of plans, well, ya because circumstances change lol

I agree with the entire Blackfyre angle, it would just be too big of a surprise if he wasn't and we've heard far too much about the Blackfyres for one to not show up in my opinion.

If he kept Viserys close as he had attempted to do, then he could always kill him later. Dany and Drogo were supposed to go to Westeros and create chaos in an already shattered land, in this Littlefinger was playing right along with their plans, and the Golden Company with a Targ at their head would ride in to save the day. As others have said all that, and that the Dragons changed things yet again, the plans continued to change.

I don't buy Varys' for the realm speech, because he must surely have some inkling about the rising shitstorm coming from the North. I don't know if he spoke to Thorne before Tyrion finally got around to him, but it's likely he heard about the undead hand at some point.

He needs Dany for the realm if he is to save it, yet doesn't seem overly concerned at this moment that she, to all outside eyes, is likely to be killed in a War by all the slaver cities against her city of Meereen.

[Ghost's Shadow]

Those hundreds of thousands of people dying to get Aegon to the throne will say their deaths were not better for the realm, as will the smallfolk.

[DeBasilisk]

Somewhat related, somewhat off topic, but does anyone else think Illyrio is wearing a fat suit? I have this sneaking suspicion his manatee-esque figure is feigned.

[jongtu]

The way I always looked at it was Dany and Viserys were just cannon fodder.

They invade Westeros on the wave of a horde of barbarians.

If Westeros is not conquered it is weakened.

If it id conquered. The Dothraki would pillage and rape. Viserys would be thought a tyrant and cruel. Then suddenly the son of the beloved crown prince arrives to liberate Westeros. The lords rally to him. They defeat the Dothraki. Aegon is proclaimed king.

Huzzah!

[Katerine459]

Somewhat related, somewhat off topic, but does anyone else think Illyrio is wearing a fat suit? I have this sneaking suspicion his manatee-esque figure is feigned.

Why would he fake it with Varys, though? What would be the point?

Unless that's not Illyrio and Varys that Arya overheard (in the scene I quoted earlier) in GoT? I find that hard to believe. The descriptions and what they're saying only make sense if they're Illyrio and Varys.