[Book Spoilers] Littlefinger the Mastermind

[Shadow on the Wall]

I think I've worked out Littlefinger's ploy. You see, it never made any sense him suggesting that he take Sansa to the Eyrie straight away because how would he get away with it? The second Sansa disappears, everyone will wonder who could have done it and Tywin most certainly would realise that it's Littlefinger.

Instead, I think Littlefinger suspects he has a spy in his midst (Ros) and is trying to rat her out. Consequently, he leaves a false trail of immediate plans to take Sansa with him to the Eyrie and uses this as bait for Ros. This would not only make Littlefinger appear like a dangerous player of the game but it also reconciles his unusually cavalier approach of late.

If my theory is right, this is bad news for poor old Ros - because Littlefinger is already many steps ahead of her.

[tito5601]

never really thought about it but yea littlefinger is smart and he would do that

[Theda Baratheon]

I think Ros is gonna end up dead soon enough, perhaps she'll even replace Dontos.

[Mulled Wino]

Its a stretch because its not an airtight trap. Anyone could know about him ordering 2 featerbeds.

Whereas tyrion had 3 subjects with different variables. When the traitor was revealed there could be no one else.

[Newstar]

Its a stretch because its not an airtight trap. Anyone could know about him ordering 2 featerbeds.

Not if he suspected Ros was the spy and provided her with a modified inventory list to see if anything came of it.

I think that in addition to identifying the spy, Littlefinger's bigger endgame was in fact to engineer the Loras/Sansa match, and ultimately the Sansa/Tyrion match itself. He wanted to contrive a set of circumstances where the next time he approached Sansa to spirit her away, Sansa would be trapped in a horrible marriage and desperate for his help. By leaking news of the Loras/Sansa match to Tywin, he would also position himself as friendly, helpful, and not in any way personally interested in the girl himself. Heck, he could even drop subtle hints that Varys was the one who originally proposed the Loras/Sansa match o Olenna. It would play out a little like this:

1. LF approaches Sansa in 3x01, says he has an assignment and that he "might" be able to take Sansa with him ("might" suggests he can beg off if Sansa actually expects him to follow through), having no intention of doing so.

2. LF gives Ros an inventory list with two featherbeds, knowing full well that she's Varys' spy. Ros takes this information to Varys, who takes it to Olenna. Unsurprisingly, a Loras/Sansa match is arranged.

3. Sansa is thrilled with the Loras/Sansa match...as Littlefinger would expect.

4. LF, just about to leave, shows up supposedly to "fetch" Sansa. Sansa refuses and explains the reason. LF makes a great show of disappointment but is pleased at her refusal, as he never intended to take her with him at this stage.

5. LF leaks this news to Tywin. Tywin is impressed by Littlefinger's show of loyalty/usefulness.

6. Tywin orders Tyrion to marry Sansa.

7. LF sails away, having cleared himself of suspicion as a possible "suitor" for Sansa, since he all but arranged her marriage to another man, and having gotten in good with Tywin. Varys is pissed.

It would be pretty cool.

My other thought that if he has identified Ros as a spy, he suspects that Tyrion has a secret prostitute love (but knows it's not Ros), and further wants to ingratiate himself, maybe he'll tell Tywin that Tyrion's lover is Ros, leading Tywin to make good on his threat.

[insertname]

That would be pretty cool, it would make Show LF a little less blunt than he already is.

[I'll pay the iron price]

In some ways Littlefinger is more dangerous than Gregor Clegane!

[Shadow on the Wall]

As Newstar says, developing Littlefinger to be an actual mastermind would be a much better reflection of the actual books (and a lot more interesting too).

Next episode we'll likely see Varys and Littlefinger in the throne room together, as shown in one of the critics spots. So this will hopefully be where Littlefinger informs Varys that he informed Tywin of Varys's little plot.

[Stannis' shadow babies]

I think OP may be right. LF knows that Ros is a spy and he may at least suspect Tyrion's lover is Shae (that's the reason Ros speaks to her as 'girl like us', LF may have already ordered Ros to find out about Shae).

[ShigellaSand]

Not if he suspected Ros was the spy and provided her with a modified inventory list to see if anything came of it.

I think that in addition to identifying the spy, Littlefinger's bigger endgame was in fact to engineer the Loras/Sansa match, and ultimately the Sansa/Tyrion match itself. He wanted to contrive a set of circumstances where the next time he approached Sansa to spirit her away, Sansa would be trapped in a horrible marriage and desperate for his help. By leaking news of the Loras/Sansa match to Tywin, he would also position himself as friendly, helpful, and not in any way personally interested in the girl himself. Heck, he could even drop subtle hints that Varys was the one who originally proposed the Loras/Sansa match o Olenna. It would play out a little like this:

1. LF approaches Sansa in 3x01, says he has an assignment and that he "might" be able to take Sansa with him ("might" suggests he can beg off if Sansa actually expects him to follow through), having no intention of doing so.

2. LF gives Ros an inventory list with two featherbeds, knowing full well that she's Varys' spy. Ros takes this information to Varys, who takes it to Olenna. Unsurprisingly, a Loras/Sansa match is arranged.

3. Sansa is thrilled with the Loras/Sansa match...as Littlefinger would expect.

4. LF, just about to leave, shows up supposedly to "fetch" Sansa. Sansa refuses and explains the reason. LF makes a great show of disappointment but is pleased at her refusal, as he never intended to take her with him at this stage.

5. LF leaks this news to Tywin. Tywin is impressed by Littlefinger's show of loyalty/usefulness.

6. Tywin orders Tyrion to marry Sansa.

7. LF sails away, having cleared himself of suspicion as a possible "suitor" for Sansa, since he all but arranged her marriage to another man, and having gotten in good with Tywin. Varys is pissed.

It would be pretty cool.

My other thought that if he has identified Ros as a spy, he suspects that Tyrion has a secret prostitute love (but knows it's not Ros), and further wants to ingratiate himself, maybe he'll tell Tywin that Tyrion's lover is Ros, leading Tywin to make good on his threat.

So in this scenario, Littlefinger would not only suspect that Ros was a spy and that she was spying for Varys... he'd also be able to predict that Varys would go to Olenna with this information? Not just do "something" to prevent LF getting his hands on Sansa, but do this particular thing, rather than, say, arrange a little accident for Sansa (either killing her or just making her incapable of traveling), get her out of there through his secret tunnels the way he does with Tyrion later, have her married off to somebody else, etc etc. That's a pretty damn good prediction, since it seems the Varys-Olenna alliance came from nowhere.

I'm skeptical. I'm sure LF had backup plans to his backup plans to his backup plans, but I don't think he reads minds.

[Shadow on the Wall]

So in this scenario, Littlefinger would not only suspect that Ros was a spy and that she was spying for Varys... he'd also be able to predict that Varys would go to Olenna with this information? Not just do "something" to prevent LF getting his hands on Sansa, but do this particular thing, rather than, say, arrange a little accident for Sansa (either killing her or just making her incapable of traveling), get her out of there through his secret tunnels the way he does with Tyrion later, have her married off to somebody else, etc etc. That's a pretty damn good prediction, since it seems the Varys-Olenna alliance came from nowhere.

I'm skeptical. I'm sure LF had backup plans to his backup plans to his backup plans, but I don't think he reads minds.

Plans can grow organically. So we can say that initially, he wanted to investigate if Ros was a spy and also supply Varys with false information to see who he would go to with it. At this point he would have probably expected Varys to go to the Tyrells due to Varys becoming less and less close with the Lannisters and Tywin not being one for accusatory whispers. So naturally LF would have kept spies on people like Lady Olenna.

As soon as one of his spies seeing Varys talk to Olenna, Littlefinger knows exactly what they're going to plan to do and the plan mentioned by Newstar can work perfectly. If things had played out differently, whilst it wouldn't give him an advantage, it wouldn't disadvantage him and so his actions are easily justified.*

That said, I don't think D&D would have thought this carefully about Littlefinger. Maybe they have and they'll prove me wrong, but I imagine next episode Littlefinger might just go to Sansa and she'll blab everything, causing him to change his plans at the last minute and tell Tywin. But we'll see soon.

*I just don't see Varys sending Sansa Stark to escape through the tunnels. Far too much personal risk for himself without any real reward. Varys is far too selfish a player for that. Likewise, he has no real reason to kill Sansa Stark. It's risky and unnecessary if he can just get her married off (and form a strong alliance in the process). I also don't think Varys is naturally cruel. So while it seems there were many options on the table for Varys - one option in particular was clearly the best.

[BorhPT]

I think that Ros is actually Litlefinger's spy on Varys. Why would a mastermind like LF get a girl like Ros to such an high position? Maybe it's because he's using her to feed information to Varys, so he can control the way he plays the game. Maybe, after the PW it will be Ros aiding Sansa on her escape and then, when she's no longer needed, LF kills her.

[ShigellaSand]

My point was not so much about whether Varys would do those things, as it was that LF can't be sure that he wouldn't. Given his obsession with Sansa, I just don't see him willingly jeopardizing his chances of getting his hands on her just to find out for sure if Roz was a spy. He'd be far more likely to simply "disappear" Roz, IMO. Better safe than sorry, nobody's going to pay attention to the fate of a whore, he can easily find another madam, and no risk of losing his grip on Cat's daughter who also happens to be the heiress of Winterfell and the North.

[Shadow on the Wall]

My point was not so much about whether Varys would do those things, as it was that LF can't be sure that he wouldn't. Given his obsession with Sansa, I just don't see him willingly jeopardizing his chances of getting his hands on her just to find out for sure if Roz was a spy. He'd be far more likely to simply "disappear" Roz, IMO. Better safe than sorry, nobody's going to pay attention to the fate of a whore, he can easily find another madam, and no risk of losing his grip on Cat's daughter who also happens to be the heiress of Winterfell and the North.

I just think it would be more profitable for him to feed Ros misinformation, foil the likely plan that will stem from this information and then dispose of Ros. Littlefinger, after all, is a mastermind.

And I see why he would be careful about jeopardizing his chances with Sansa, but Littlefinger is both devilishly smart and a risk taker. He likes chaotic, daring scheming - this sort of plan is right up his alleway.

I think that Ros is actually Litlefinger's spy on Varys. Why would a mastermind like LF get a girl like Ros to such an high position? Maybe it's because he's using her to feed information to Varys, so he can control the way he plays the game. Maybe, after the PW it will be Ros aiding Sansa on her escape and then, when she's no longer needed, LF kills her.

I might have thought that too but for the scene with Littlefinger and Ros where he threatens her extremely nastily. Don't think Ros would ever want to work as spy for a guy like that - although admittedly she could do it out of fear. That said, she did warn Shae in episode 1 about LF.

[Valonqar_]

The problem with Ros being Dontos'd is that that's what would give LF's plan away. There are some people by now who know LF wants to take Sansa with her. If he "fails" to do so now and Sansa simply disappears after the PW, it would be hard to associate both things. But, if LF's assistant, who has nothing to do with Sansa, also disappears, that would be too much of a giveaway.

[heathers]

Maybe he plans to ask ros along with him to the eeryie. It covers the tracks of 2 featherbeds. Then he makes ros bring sansa (possibly making out to ros that sansa is going elsewhere into hiding) then ros gets dontos'd and sansa poses as ros/his daughter.

The main hole in my theory is getting sansa on the ship with ros and noone suspecting lf. Still i think ros is gonna die as she has been feeding info to varys.

[go joff go]

The problem with Ros being Dontos'd is that that's what would give LF's plan away. There are some people by now who know LF wants to take Sansa with her. If he "fails" to do so now and Sansa simply disappears after the PW, it would be hard to associate both things. But, if LF's assistant, who has nothing to do with Sansa, also disappears, that would be too much of a giveaway.

Not if Ros is working against LF with Varys. Also I don't think Ros going missing is really going to tell anyone anything one way or another.

[Shadow on the Wall]

So episode 5 didn't plan out exactly as I hoped (character motivations for Littlefinger still don't quite add up) but I did at least like how they made LF do something clever. And his manipulation of Sansa was also great to see (as well as his own insecurities). Not bad.

EDIT: Unfortunately LF's accent has been crap since season 2 began.

[Shadow on the Wall]

Called it! (near enough anyway)

Like what they did in the latest Littlefinger scene (E06). I've accepted now that they've turned him into an outright villain. And while I disagree with that decision, at least they made him a dangerous villain.