I think Gendry will win the IT.

[The Duke]

No one is following an illiterate blacksmith. The highest he can aim is if Arya loves him and they marry, otherwise, the best he could do would be a blacksmith for a just lord, or possibly a hedge knight.

[Lord of Beyond the Wall]

The bastard of an usurper has not claim to the Throne, heh, the bastard of a legitimate King has no claim to the Throne.

[WeirwoodTreeHugger]

It doesn't seem like he would even want the IT. He's always seemed content to be a smith. I really don't see it.

[Lord Flashheart]

I don't know how but I think he will.

I can see this is a well thought out theory. I have nothing to add.

[shk12344]

I can see this is a well thought out theory. I have nothing to add.

It's the fine details that makes it a convincing theory.

[Gurkhal]

Its entirely possible but I would think that Edric Storm is a more likely Baratheon bastard to claim the throne, given that he's a noble bastard and that he's more training and experience in dealing with nobles.

[James Sucellus]

I don't know how but I think he will.

I'm convinced he will too.

[alienarea]

The fantasy genre requires the hero to forge/reforge a sword, kill a dragon and marry the princess.

Since Gendry seems to be the only noteworthy blacksmith in Westeros, he has to be the hero of the story.

And of course this is what ASoIaF is all about: Who will light the fire to reforge Ice?

:dunno:

[Light a wight tonight]

Mya Stone on the Iron Throne, it is known.

For this you must atone

Alone

[KingInTheCave]

Why is this "theory" getting more attention than this one:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/91704-theory-long-the-missing-prophesy-of-the-dragon-and-the-blood-of-the-dragon-and-direwolves/

[Light a wight tonight]

Gendry won't ascend to the Iron Throne, but he may forge his own from the swords of the Freys that the BwB hang.

[Buried Treasure]

There are circumstances under which I could imagine the illiterate, peasant-raised bastard son of a commoner and a king might be given a crown. Like if the king's dynasty had been strong and secure, there were no claimants from any other dynasties and the High Lords were unified enough / balanced out in their rivalries so that none of them would be too threatened by one getting to pull the strings of what would essentially be a puppet king. The circumstances post-Wo5K do not in any way fit that; their are just too many claimants and factions and too few of them have any reason to back a Baratheon bastard. Of the kings, only Stannis would have any reason to proclaim a bastard of Robert's his heir (and if he did he would probably choose Edric Storm over Gendry) but the greatest asset to Stannis' cause is that Stannis himself is believed to be too stubborn to lose. If Stannis dies his faction will fall apart, his current supporters will all back whichever stronger claimant they hate least, and nobody will be left to promote Stannis' heir as a claimant to the throne.

[Mark Antony]

Nope, Edric maybe.

[houseHB]

Maybe Edric Storm. If Gendry ever becomes known in Westeros he'll probably be the next Beric Dondarion or something a knight who defends the smallfolk.

[Aderyn the Sly]

I don't buy it, but I've always questioned his origin story:

She died when I was little. She had yellow hair, and sometimes she used to sing to me, I remember. She worked in an alehouse.

And according the Wiki (I know, not always reliable) he is younger than Mya (who he fathered in the Vale) but older than Edric (who he fathered at Stannis's wedding) which makes him the oldest male of Robert's children, in either a CoK or FFC he is said as being 5 years older than Arya so I think it's faily acurate. And I love how it keeps saying how amazing Gendry is with a hammer (his father's weapon of choice).

GoT Page 236:

Those hands of his, those hands were made for hammers

If Stannis and Shereen die (and I think Shereen will at least) than wouldn't he have the best claim to his fathers seat as oldest male if Robert's bastards were the last of the Baratheons? And Stannis knows of him already having visited the smith with Jon Arryn. And he currently is with "Robert's Men". Although, If he does claim the throne, I doubt he will actually rule in peace.

[BranBrokeLegs]

Gendry will not sit the Iron Throne. Edric Storm is an acknowledged bastard who was raised as a noble. If the nobles of Westeros feel that they need a royal bastard, its him they will choose. Gendry looks a lot like Robert (or rather Renly), but there is no way to prove his lineage. He has just as much chance to sit the throne as the Stoney Sept whore or Mya Stone, or Anguy or Lem Lemoncloak for that matter.

[Light a wight tonight]

Who actually knows that Gendry is one of Robert's bastards? Stannis, Brienne and ????? (Ned and Jon Arryn knew but they aren't telling). And why would Stannis promote Gendry over Edric Storm? If Stannis dies without telling anyone about Gendry that leaves Brienne, and who could be reasonable expected to believe her? OTOH, Edric is not a particular secret. The whole idea of Gendry on the IT is unlikely.

[Fat Mac]

Edric Storm has a far greater chance of getting anything than Gendry. Gendry is in the same boat as Bella in the fact that nobody knows who they are. Jon Arryn, Stannis, Ned and Varys know about Gendry. Two are dead, and Stannis' or Varys' words wont be taken seriously by everybody. And if it comes to Stannis legitimizing a bastard (if god forbid Shireen dies), it will be Edric, since he has noble on both sides.

[young.wolf]

I believe now that he's got an army, the High Septon might make it his prerogative to legitimize a bastard to avoid giving the crown to R'hhlor-worshipping Stannis. (If Tommen & Myrcella are proved to be Lannister bastards, for example).

Gendry also worships the red god, he was converted by the Brotherhood as seen in a Brienne chapter somewhere in Feast

[mrunderhill]

Who actually knows that Gendry is one of Robert's bastards? Stannis, Brienne and ????? (Ned and Jon Arryn knew but they aren't telling). And why would Stannis promote Gendry over Edric Storm? If Stannis dies without telling anyone about Gendry that leaves Brienne, and who could be reasonable expected to believe her? OTOH, Edric is not a particular secret. The whole idea of Gendry on the IT is unlikely.

Varys knows and I bet LF does too. The older he gets, the more likely he will look like Robert. People will probably suspect the truth, but there will be no real proof unless some reliable noble comes forth. If say Stannis had said this was Robert's bastard son, nobody is going to have trouble believing it.

As you said though, Edric is the most likely to be promoted by Stannis if anyone. Edric's paternity is far from a secret, he is openly and publicly acknowledged as Robert's son. Apart from the ears, he and Gendry could probably pass for each other.