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GNC theory: (long) Theon knows snowmen = secret communications to outside troops


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I'd like to suggest that the snowmen may be FAR more then they seem in the Great Northern conspiracy. I've seen mentions of the snowmen before, but not in any way more then foreshadowing or just that it's an inside joke of the Winterfell conspirators. Apologies if this has been covered in another thread already.

I think they are not just foreshadowing. In fact I think they are the communications link from the King in the North's loyal forces inside Winterfell to those outside Winterfell. Since Theon grew up a ward of winterfell, learning the same tactics Robb did, I think he knows all about it. And no one can say Robb was in any way bad at war tactics. He won every battle, and Theon was there to share his lessons.

The snowmen ARE the message, they are a rudimentary form of steganography (hiding a covert message in plain sight) to tell the troops outside Winterfell who is on their side on the inside and more. Perhaps even how many troops per lord. All the troops outside the walls would need is a good Myrish lens to see it.

ADWD The turncloak

A battle was being fought in the yard; Ryswells pelting Barrowton boys with snowballs. Above, he could see some squires building snowmen along the battlements. They were arming them with spears and shields, putting iron halfhelms on their heads, and arraying them along the inner wall, a rank of snowy sentinels.

The inner wall of Winterfell is taller then the outer wall. This means anything built on top of there has good visibility from far away.

The snowmen have SHIELDS too, something that could be painted to represent a house. Now with an impending fight coming on, do you really think the squires would be allowed to play around building snowmen with spears, halfhelms (that could rust in the snow) and shields that would be soon needed unless it was to some good purpose?

Ryswell and Barrowton boys are in the midst of a snowball fight, maybe the Barrowton boys are keeping the Ryswells away from the "fun" so the snowmen can be built the way the squires need them to be?

The squires are the one putting the snowmen together, and they would be the first to know not to rust up their master's weapons and helms since they're the ones that clean them. Who would suspect a young squire playing in the snow as a conveyor of a secret message?

ADWD The turncloak

Theon trudged away from them. There was a stair beyond the mews, seldom used; it was there his feet took him. The steps were steep and treacherous. He climbed carefully and found himself alone on the battlements of the inner wall, well away from the squires and their snowmen. No one had given him freedom of the castle, but no one had denied it to him either. He could go where he would within the walls.

Winterfell’s inner wall was the older and taller of the two, its ancient grey crenellations rising one hundred feet high, with square towers at every corner. The outer wall, raised many centuries later, was twenty feet lower, but thicker and in better repair, boasting octagonal towers in place of square ones.

On seeing the snowmen Theon separates himself. He tries to stay out of their way since he knew EXACTLY what was going on. You would think how to use the snow would be a common strategy he was taught by the Starks to exchange information, hide people and things, etc. If you have to do battle in the snow you may as well use it to your advantage!

Remember in the quote before this one, Theon automatically described the snowball fight not as play, but as a battle. Here in this passage, after thinking about the snowmen he also thinks to himself about how the walls are structured with the inner battlements higher then the outer.

These two thoughts are our first clue he knows. Perhaps he's thinking about what's happening in an indirect way, so his own fears don't betray him, so he can pretend ignorance with Ramsay. If he admits to himself that he knows what is happening, then he's in trouble. As Reek, he can trick himself into being blissfully ignorant, he can say "Reek doesn't know why they build snowmen m'lord" and distance himself.

ADWD The turncloak

More snowmen had risen in the yard by the time Theon Greyjoy made his way back. To command the snowy sentinels on the walls, the squires had erected a dozen snowy lords. One was plainly meant to be Lord Manderly; it was the fattest snowman that Theon had ever seen. The one-armed lord could only be Harwood Stout, the snow lady Barbrey Dustin. And the one closest to the door with the beard made of icicles had to be old Whoresbane Umber.

The ones in the yard may just be that the conspirators' squires have started a trend. (lol) But the ones that matter are on the battlements.

Now, leading the sentinels, (isn't sentinel another word for watcher?) there is a plainly identifiable Lord Manderly, Barbery Dustin and Whoresbane Umber on the walls. You don't command your sentinels on the walls from inside the yard do you? (Well, unless you're Joffrey.) To anyone outside the walls, add this to the shields and you would have no mistake, not just the men, but the lords too are Snow's men.

Theon notes there is NO mistaking who they are: Manderly, Stout, Dustin, and Umber. Whether the fact that a dozen lords are important to the message or not is debatable. It could be an account of how many lords are inside the castle. If the Lords are NOT identifiable, perhaps that means they are NOT snow's men.

Also, it has been awhile, and you would think the squires would have been stopped and scolded by now. (especially because of the weapons) No one has stopped the squires yet. They're building more.

If people have been communicating through Ryswell's "missing" pages, perhaps the snowmen are reflecting continuing requests for information. How many lords total? Who is with us? How many are against us? Lord Barristan has been teaching Daenerys how to count out troops, perhaps the number of sentinels are some agreed on multiple of counts of the troops inside (For example, 100 or 1000 troops per sentinel, with the shield of the sentinel showing who those troops answer to)

This kind of communication would be ideal, since it can be changed at a moment's notice to show changes of loyalties inside of Winterfell. Just dress up another snowlord to be identifiable (Lady Dustin??) and now the outside know who they should NOT attack very quickly. Add a Frey identifiable snowy sentinel and you know X number of new Frey troops have arrived.

Would the Roose know about this tactic? Quite possibly, but if he's trying to keep the lords and ladies on his side, he can't just be throwing around accusations. Ramsay, being younger and probably not growing up trained in a castle learning the ways of warfare, may just be completely oblivious to this tactic.

ADWD A Ghost in Winterfell

He might have taken the guards for a pair of Little Walder’s snowmen if he had not seen the white plumes of their breath.

I find it interesting that Little Walder's was building snowmen in the yard. Little Walder was the cruel one. Did he start joining in on the fun and then started to realize exactly what was being built? Could this be a possible reason why he was killed?

ADWD A ghost in winterfell

Theon trudged through the storm until his arms and legs were caked with snow and his hands and feet had gone numb from cold, then climbed to the battlements of the inner wall again. Up here, a hundred feet high, a little wind was blowing, stirring the snow. All the crenels had filled up. Theon had to punch through a wall of snow to make a hole … only to find that he could not see beyond the moat. Of the outer wall, nothing remained but a vague shadow and a few

dim lights floating in the dark.

I find this the saddest passage. I think Theon decided to punch some accumulated snow out of a crenel not out of boredom, but because he decides he wants to help the outside forces receive their needed messages. The text says "he HAD TO punch through the wall of snow to make a hole." HAD TO being the operative word. And then he sees what the weather is like and stops, hopeless. Is it possible that this moment is a very subtle turning point for Theon? Is he starting to try and help the conspirators message be seen? It's a little heartbreaking to see the next bit describe the lack of visibility, so perhaps Theon is still deciding at this point. This happens just after Theon's confrontation with the hooded man.

By this time, there is no way to see clearly to the inner battlements, so hopefully all snow communications have been received. I hope everyone in on the conspiracy is figuring it out that Theon has not betrayed them yet, and hopefully they will help him.

Because of all this, Theon's choice to jump from the battlements may not be as risky and foolhardy as it seemed. WHY? You ask?

Because he knows from the snowmen the battlements are watched, he even hears what he thinks is Stannis' warhorn in the distance before jumping, which is not true because he's days of riding away from them when he gets to Asha.

Perhaps the warhorn sounding before he jumps is an alert that something is happening at the outer battlement, because the watcher on the outside can see the altercation. The spearwife fell, then there was a crossbow bolt. So Theon knew if he jumped friendly forces will see it. And they do. The next we see Theon and Jeyne, they are being given to Asha.

ADWD The sacrifice

The Braavosi smiled. “We’ve brought a gift for you.” He beckoned to the men behind him. “We had expected to find the king at Winterfell. This same blizzard has engulfed the castle, alas. Beneath its walls we found Mors Umber with a troop of raw green boys, waiting for the king’s coming. He gave us this.”

The Umbers are watching. :) Hope you like the post.

edit: changed a sentence for clarity

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Good theory. I've seen variations of it before and I think it's sound.

And I'm going with the theory that the snowman trick of communication is NOT known as battle tactic. It's something a couple of drunk brothers (the Umbers) would think is funny, or a cunning lord (Manderly) would come up with, or a combination of the three. The snow men are literally "Snow's men", as in Jon Snow, Robb's lawful heir so far as the northern lords are concerned.

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I think you are overthinking this

Putting up snowmen (or other fake guards like scarecrows) is to intimidate Stannis' scouts into thinking more troops than really are manning the walls

Theon punched a hole through a crennel (the small lookout window hardly helping visibility to any below) & he avoids people in general (playful happy building snowmen is a huge bizzkill to him)

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No way, even if Roose isn't personally looking that way, he almost certainly has his people keeping an eye on all the doings and transpirings of his dysfunctional little host.

I stand by my claim that if the snowmen dressed as various Lords, is some sort of signal and if logically that signal is widely enough known amongst the Northmen that several Houses would be able to use it in a multi-House conspiracy, then it is certainly something that would be known to Roose.

Roose definitely has his flaws, but he is no Ramsay. He definitely knows the precarious situation he is currently sitting in.

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Well, isn't it weird that none of the snowmen is identifiable as a Bolton, while Boltons claim to be lords of Winterfell. Also, if the theory is that the squires were ordered to make appearance of guards manning the inner wall, then why bother and identify the lords?

I agree that Roose would be having someone reporting on the happenings at Winterfell, but what if those reporters simply don't know where to look?

Anyhow, I like the theory. Not sure if it is necessarily accurate, but I do like it.

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Anyhow, I like the theory. Not sure if it is necessarily accurate, but I do like it.

So do I. I'm generally not a believer of the GNC theory, but I have a healthy respect for the supporting evidence presented, especially for this particular thread.

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Would Crowfood have a telescope or "fareye"?Pretty rare in Westeros,and expensive.How far away do you have to stand away from an 80 ft wall to see the top of a 100 ft wall just behind it?And then there's the relentless snowstorm.

It's a nice idea and a well written OP,but I can't say I'm convinced (yet).

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First thanks for all the great comments and discussion everyone! (lol this is not the first time I've been told I overthink things. :D)

No way, even if Roose isn't personally looking that way, he almost certainly has his people keeping an eye on all the doings and transpirings of his dysfunctional little host.

I stand by my claim that if the snowmen dressed as various Lords, is some sort of signal and if logically that signal is widely enough known amongst the Northmen that several Houses would be able to use it in a multi-House conspiracy, then it is certainly something that would be known to Roose.

Roose definitely has his flaws, but he is no Ramsay. He definitely knows the precarious situation he is currently sitting in.

I agree that the biggest flaw with this is that Roose is a very smart cookie and would be able to pick up on this. However I agree with what Brut mentioned, his informers may not know to mention it to him, perhaps they are focused on the people on the inside because it's just warmer to begin with and they think they only need to watch the adults.

However what I think is a more likely possibility was that Roose was willing to let Ramsay take the fall for some of the retribution the northmen would inevitably be planning against Winterfell's occupiers. All he'd really need is Winterfell to be stable long enough for fake Arya to provide an heir to Winterfell and then Ramsay is expendable and a possible scapegoat for "revenge on Boltons", even though Roose Bolton himself is the one that the revenge should be taken on. I really think Roose is a full psychopath, he simply doesn't feel emotions as a normal human would. I think this is why disposing of Ramsay in this way wouldn't trouble him in the least.

Once free of Ramsay, fake Arya and her infant son or daughter would be much easier to control since she's been so victimized she'd probably be all too grateful and complicit to Roose in exchange for Ramsay's death and some measure of protection as she raises the more malleable, infant, heir.

Perhaps the moment when Theon sees the fear in his eyes Roose is starting to realize the scope of the tension is too large and too early for even a confirmed conception so his plans can take place. Ramsay is so messed up he can't even be stable long enough to get fake Arya pregnant. So at this point in the story, even if he knew, perhaps he wasn't willing to mention it. Ramsay was rocking the boat too much as it was already.

In a way we've seen the same plan discussed by Tywin with Tyrion and Sansa. Once Sansa was to provide an heir by Tyrion, then according to Tywin, she was no longer needed to keep a claim to Winterfell.

Would Crowfood have a telescope or "fareye"?Pretty rare in Westeros,and expensive.How far away do you have to stand away from an 80 ft wall to see the top of a 100 ft wall just behind it?And then there's the relentless snowstorm.

It's a nice idea and a well written OP,but I can't say I'm convinced (yet).

I haven't gone though the text with a fine toothed comb (yet, haha) but does anyone know what happened to Maester Luwin's Myrish Lens? The last time I remember it being mentioned was when Rikon was looking through it in AGOT after they were in his chambers directly after Shaggydog's attack. Perhaps someone fished it out of the rubble after the fire and smuggled it outside the walls.

It doesn't actually matter to me whether you're convinced or not. :) I just like to analyze.

edit: spelling to/too

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Great theory.

I could easily be convinced The Lord snowmen are a message to the outside forces to communicate who is "in" on whatever there is to be in on.

With respect i think the extrapolation about theon is a step to far. Pretty clear from the text he is just trying to look out IMHO.

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  • 10 months later...

I can't subscribe to the idea that this is a well known tactic in the North. It would defeat the purpose of the whole thing.



I do like the idea that the snowmen are being used to tell those outside the walls who has been won over by Manderly. I wonder does Barbrey Dustin's snowman support this? She appears to change sides during aDwD. Does the erection of the snowmen come after her visits to the crypts? Before this point she would surely not receive a snowman in her honour.


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  • 2 months later...

It cannot be a well-known tactic in the North since the Boltons would have known.



But this possibility matches well with the idea that Wyman has Robett Glover coming to Winterfell with an additional army, or maybe hanging around, waiting for Stannis. In this case, they could have agreed to special rules of communication only they can understand. For example, if GNC is true, and Wyman is slowly convincing the Northern lords to join him vs. the Boltons & Freys, the snowmen could well be telling Robett which Lords have been convinced. Manderly, Dustin, Stout and Umber are all Lords/Ladies that are conspiring together, according to GNC.



In this case it could be relatively easy not to get caught, like painitng only these houses' shields, or making only those snowmen recognizable, etc. I think it's pretty reasonable, except for the Little Walder part. That's my main doubt.


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