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If Drogo Invaded Westeros *long*


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#1 Harpo of House Trashcan

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 06:37 AM

Okay I'm going to skip the "what if" part of this and go straight into discussion.
1.) The Strength of Both Sides
Okay, since the Dothraki are the challengers we will start with them first. Drogo's Khalasar was said to have 100,000 Dothraki in it. It would be foolish to assume all of them were men of fighting age, so we will assume that there are 35,000-40,000 troops. Each member of the Khalasar , besides the extremly sick, elderly or injured, rides a horse and they also use horses for food so we will put the minimum amount of hosrses at an even 100,000.
Dothraki screamers wear no armor besides some leather gauntlets and cuirasses here and there. They favor the arakh, a log slender sword with a hook's curve. It can be used very effectively from horseback but would be very difficult to use in close combat. They use shortbows from horseback which have meager range compared to Westerosi longbows. Their horses have no armor, but this helps to heighten their speed.
Now, the Westerosi. From what we can gather from the books the minimum strength of each area is as follows: North - 35,000; Riverlands - 25,000; Vale - 25,000; Westerlands - 60,000; Reach - 80,000; Crownlands - 20,000; Stormlands - 30,000; Dorne - stated to be 50,000, probably 40,000 or 45,000. I do not think that the Iron Islands would become a part of this war. If Dorne knew that the Targs were with Khal Drogo most would ally with the Dothraki but some would stay with the IT. That makes it a grand war of 280,000 vs 80,000. Many of the Westerosi forces are untrained but that would not affect the war if they fought it the right way. The Westerosi Pikemen, Longbow Archers, and Heavy Horse are a great advantage over the Dothraki Riders who have no armor. Westeros also has Warships and trained sailors.
2.)How the Dothraki would get there
Considering they are on the other side of the Narrow Sea they would need ships. How many ships would it take to transport 100,000 Dothraki, 100,00+ horses, and supplies for all of them? Probably 1500+ gallleys. How would they all get there safely? Considering the fact that even the Ironborn, the best sailors in Westeros and maybe the entire world, get lost in the Narrow Sea, many of the ships would be lost or taken. Assuming that none of their ships are lost, News of such a huge amount of ships get around pretty quickly so Stannis the Mannis would be ready. Now let's assume Stannis is too busy poking Shireen on the Greyscale side of her face. Where do the Dothraki land? The North? Suicide. Dorne? No good anchorage. Vale? Mountains. Riverlands? Dangerous swamps. That leaves two options, the Stormlands and Dragonstone. The Stormlands would be very uninhabitable for the Dothraki and has the strongest castles. Dragonstone is tiny, uninhabitable and off the coast of Westeros.
3.) The Battles
If the Westerosi are smart, they will harvest all of their food and get behind strong walls. They would dig trenches or put up structures that would render the Dothraki useless without their horses. Dorne would try to aid the Dothraki but they would get cut off by the southern Reach and Marcher lords. Meeting the Dothraki in open field would be suicide so they would stay in their fortifications and bleed the Dothraki with arrows. Siege would be the only way the Dothraki could take castles but considering they have 100,000 people and 100,000 horses and considering the Westerosi took all of the crops, they would wear out the land pretty quickly.
What's your input on this subject?


#2 SkaggCannibal

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 06:53 AM

Dorne should be helpful, together they should be able to conquer and hold King's Landing and the IT. After that they should go pillage and destroy the lands of the regions who refuse to acknowledge their rule. That should keep them busy for a while. But it depends on where Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella flee to after their attack on King's Landing. They should have to capture or kill any possible heirs to the throne to prevent a powerful uprising. That also incluids Stannis, Shireen and Renly, so I gues Westerlands and Stormlands would get it hard. And Dragonstone too.

#3 Ramsay the Bastard

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 06:57 AM

I don't believe the plan was ever for the dothraki to conquer westeros, it was so they could ruin the countryside and leave the realm in disrepair so Aegon could show up and sort shit out.

#4 thecryptile

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 07:00 AM

Robert wouldn't have been afforded the luxury of hiding behind castle walls. The small folk would quickly desert a King who failed to protect them from Essosi invaders. Robert would be forced to meet them in open battle, with the outcome very much in doubt.

#5 How to slay a Dragon

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 07:01 AM

Dorne? No good anchorage.

But they have Port cities and are obviously big in the sea trade as you find Dornish wine everywhere. Also Nymeria was able to take all her ships there.... I think Dorne could easily be a landing point.

#6 jamesmalone

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 07:10 AM

As long as lords were smart enough to stay within stone walls, they could withstand the Dothraki. Even meeting them in the field wouldn't be as suicidal as we are led to think... As the show points out (can't remember if it was in the books as well) Dothraki arakhs would be no match for armor. As you say yourself, screamers wear leather armor and have short range weapons. The Westerosi have warships, armor and siege weapons.

#7 Marco

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 07:26 AM

Only Drogo can defeat full armored Knights i think. (I don't know how he would with arakh but he would) So even bloodriders have big trouble against them, Qotho vs Jorah showed us the result.

#8 Almighty Stannis

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 07:42 AM

The Dothraki would be massacred and run home with their tails between their legs.

#9 Barty

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 07:48 AM

The reach alone could beat Drogo. 20k knights of the reach with Randyl Tarly leading them would be enough to end the Dothraki menace once and for all.

#10 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 08:00 AM

The Westerosi soldiers are trained. I won't go into the details, but Septon Merribald was one of a very small minority. Most are professionals.

By and large, the Dothraki would be curbstomped the first time they face a real army. Even one or two middling Lords could give them a fair fight, their advantage in technology, warcraft and discipline is just too big.

That's if Stannis only sunk 25% of their ships during the crossing, instead of 75% which would be more likely.

I don't believe the plan was ever for the dothraki to conquer westeros, it was so they could ruin the countryside and leave the realm in disrepair so Aegon could show up and sort shit out.

/agree.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':agree:' />

The Dothraki would be massacred and run home with their tails between their legs.

Nope, they wouldn't run home. They couldn't get back across the Narrow Sea. Instead they would split up, ride across the continent, murpillaping for years until they were all hunted down in time. Which would mean genocide for the Dothraki, but also a very unhappy populace blaming Robert for not protecting them and looking for a savior.

#11 Ser Alex Tully

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 08:01 AM

You got some of the figures wrong firstly dorne has less about 20,000 swords not 40,000 and doran martell conforms this in feast, secondly the riverlands.is about 50,000 but they are never united and usually suffer first and the Vale is on par with the north in strength. Then lets say stannis dosn't totally destroy the fleet bringing them over the dothraki would only really be able to conquer the reach, crownlands, the riverlands and the southern westerlands due to there flat terrain. After that dorne and the goldern company would be forced to try and conquer the northern westerlands, the north, the vale and the stormlands due to there defences that the dothraki cant handle being the hills and mountains of the westerlands in the north, the mountains of the moon in the vale, moat calin in the north amd the forests and mountains of the stormlands. Then once winter hits the dothraki would be destroyed by the cold. Also nothing brings a country together then foreign invasion. I would like to see drogo, oberyn, doran and the golden company try and beat a united force of ned, robert, stannis, tywin, jaime, the blackfish, bronze yohn. I really cant see the targ alliance beating a united force of the kingdoms and if they can conquer certain areas they will not be able to hold them in winter

#12 Harpo of House Trashcan

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 08:21 AM

Dorne? No good anchorage.

But they have Port cities and are obviously big in the sea trade as you find Dornish wine everywhere. Also Nymeria was able to take all her ships there.... I think Dorne could easily be a landing point.

Dorne has like 2 ports and the Dothraki would pillage them even though they were allied

#13 Harpo of House Trashcan

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 08:22 AM

As long as lords were smart enough to stay within stone walls, they could withstand the Dothraki. Even meeting them in the field wouldn't be as suicidal as we are led to think... As the show points out (can't remember if it was in the books as well) Dothraki arakhs would be no match for armor. As you say yourself, screamers wear leather armor and have short range weapons. The Westerosi have warships, armor and siege weapons.

it depends on who and what you have when you battle them. if you have knights it'll be good if you have fisherfolk and farmers, well then you're screwed

Edited by Harpo of House Trashcan, 20 July 2013 - 08:24 AM.


#14 Harpo of House Trashcan

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 08:23 AM

You got some of the figures wrong firstly dorne has less about 20,000 swords not 40,000 and doran martell conforms this in feast, secondly the riverlands.is about 50,000 but they are never united and usually suffer first and the Vale is on par with the north in strength. Then lets say stannis dosn't totally destroy the fleet bringing them over the dothraki would only really be able to conquer the reach, crownlands, the riverlands and the southern westerlands due to there flat terrain. After that dorne and the goldern company would be forced to try and conquer the northern westerlands, the north, the vale and the stormlands due to there defences that the dothraki cant handle being the hills and mountains of the westerlands in the north, the mountains of the moon in the vale, moat calin in the north amd the forests and mountains of the stormlands. Then once winter hits the dothraki would be destroyed by the cold. Also nothing brings a country together then foreign invasion. I would like to see drogo, oberyn, doran and the golden company try and beat a united force of ned, robert, stannis, tywin, jaime, the blackfish, bronze yohn. I really cant see the targ alliance beating a united force of the kingdoms and if they can conquer certain areas they will not be able to hold them in winter

i wanted to be more realistic judging how many they would send no how many they readily have

#15 conon394

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 08:48 AM

100,00+ horses, and supplies for all of them? Probably 1500+ gallleys.


Actually Ancient and Medieval horse transports usually ran at about 20-40 horses per ship. This is not a short hop like crossing the Channel so you need special ships unless you want a lot of dead horses. Add in both the Dothraki unease on boats and the fact none of thier horses will have even been in stalls, you are looking a real logistical issue in loading and unloading. In any case if the goal is just 100,000 effective horses at the other side you are likely talking about 3000+ horse transports alone (with high capacity) .But given the length of trip and the need to feed and water the animals over many days really 25-30 is a better guess for capacity. The means really 3500-4000 ships. Again Horse transports are essently expensive costly useless special ships. On the open market only a very few will be around. The people who have them are really only rich navies who do amphibious ops or rich naval/merchant cities like Genoa or Vencie that did a brisk business in transporting crusaders across the med. That means Drogo will have to finance a massive building project at some place or many costing a huge amount of money and time and manpower. That kind of thing is hardly covert, so in reality Westeros need only wait for news of were the Dothraki are building and blockade and or raid and fire the building.

Now since all that does is get you 100,000 horses for 40,000 horse fools, but they then get decimated...
The basic problem of horses are food I really doubt they ever got trained so they are not remounts or such. That means the Dothraki horse boys are not Mongols with their seven remounts - they will not be able to outmaneuver or tire Westros cavalry or dash in and out all day a demoralize foot. With their silly swords and no armor they will loose the first battle they fight and every after.

Edited by conon394, 20 July 2013 - 08:55 AM.


#16 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 08:54 AM

i wanted to be more realistic judging how many they would send no how many they readily have

Then you've put some way to high. Dorne has 30,000 in total, the Westerlands only ~45,000. Readily available would be less.

And the Stormlands would need to send their entire force as well.

#17 Marco

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 09:05 AM

Siege would be the only way the Dothraki could take castles but considering they have 100,000 people and 100,000 horses and considering the Westerosi took all of the crops, they would wear out the land pretty quickly.
What's your input on this subject?

They have 40.000 riders. So this is few. At least they need 80-90 so with that they can resist any combine force of two region, otherwise even one region can stop them.

Edited by Marco, 20 July 2013 - 09:11 AM.


#18 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 09:14 AM

They have 40.000 riders. So this is few. At least they need 80-90 so with that they can resist any combine force of two region, otherwise even one region can stop them.

Make that middling lords instead of Lords Paramount.

#19 Sir Tan Lee

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Posted 23 July 2013 - 11:13 PM

First let me start off with the state of the Seven Kingdoms.

By the time the Dothraki get to Westeros it would be about the middle of the war of five kings.

Robb would never ally with Tywin. They may stop attacking each other just due to the distraction of the Dothraki but they would not be a unified army. They'll just be fighting alone.

Stannis wouldn't ally with any one. We already saw how stubborn he is. Balon probably just wouldn't care until the Dothraki are on his doorstep.

Robb would probably use the Dothraki distraction to either focus on the Iron men or attack Tywin from behind. Stannis only controls Stormsend and Dragonstone both of which would be safe (Stormsend has huge almost impenetrable walls and Dragonstone is an island) so he'd probably also use the Dothraki as a distraction. If the Dothraki invasion takes place after the BOBW then he'll go to the wall. If it takes place before BOBW then Stannis will most likely stick to his plans on taking kings landing.

The Dothraki would not have to fight the combined armies of Westeros. They would only have to take them down one at a time. With some of them still killing each other in the process.

Seeing as how Dorne wants revenge on the Lannisters they'll probably be the only ones to side with the Dothraki.

Dothraki

It seems like a lot of people are underestimating the Dothraki. Even the Free Cities are afraid of them and they have walls and armored men just like the Westerosi.

Cavalry archers are one of the best unites on a battle field. Genghis Khan proved that when he formed the largest continuous empire in history. Dothraki are based off of Mongols and Native Americans.

Dothraki wouldn't charge headlong into a huge wall of armored knights. They'd set up camp in a field that favors their fighting style. Then they'd send raiding parties out to the small towns to rape and loot anything they can. When the Westerosi army does come, the battle will be on ground that favors the Dothraki. Giving them a huge advantage.

As far as sieges go. The Dothraki may not be good at Sieges but Dorne isn't a stranger to them. Dorne could build siege equipment and just teach the Dothraki how its done. With the added Dothraki manpower it wouldn't be all that hard to take most castles.

Another supposed "death blow" to the Dothraki is armored Knights.There aren't that many Knights. Only about 10% or less of most armies are made up of armored Knights. Even so it wouldn't be a huge trump card. The Dornish would probably teach the Dothraki how to take down Knights and what weapons are effective against them.

Conclusion

I could easily see the Dothraki taking most of Westeros with the exception of the Vale, the north and Islands off the coast.

The Vale could hold off the Dothraki purely because of the mountains. Horses wouldn't be able to fight on the rocky fortresses. Even experienced Dornish soldiers would have an overly difficult time of trying to take the Eyrie.

The north could also hold its own due to Moat Cailin. The swamp is no place for a horse. Another problem would be Winter. In the south it would be mild enough for inexperienced people to survive but in the north it would be to extreme for Dothraki and their horses.

All in all the Dothraki would probably take most Westeros excluding the Vale, the North, and several islands. They probably won't be able to hold it for long though due to the possible northern/Ironmen threat later on and Aegon. At this point Dany wouldn't ally with Aegon no matter how much evidence he has. Dothraki would be good at taking land but they aren't good at holding it and with the hole kingdom pissed off at Dany it would only take a small yet significant opposition to start a rebellion.

#20 Willard/Mitt Lannister

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Posted 23 July 2013 - 11:32 PM

The Free Cities did not deploy Heavy Cavalry in the way that Westeros does.

I think that the Dothraki would definitely cause havoc, but only because Westeros was disunited. An alliance--perhaps even the Tyrell and Lannister alliance--of major Houses that yielded 15000+ heavy cavalry would decimate them.

People often compare the Dothraki to the Mongols, but the Mongols used a composite longbow that was actually incredibly advanced. The Dothraki's bow technology lags behind Westeros'.