Jon Connington's next move

[Steinnis]

So we know that JC and the Golden Company have taken most of the castles in the Stormlands, and more importantly Storm's End. That's a great start for them, and they now have a strong foothold in the south, but where do they go from here?

A few options...

JC, Aegon and co have alot of momentum at the minute, but they also don't have enough men to take KL; they've accomplished quite a bit with how little men they have. But still, not enough to make a huge difference. Will they set up shop at Storm's End or force a march on KL?

JC is relying on the support of Dorne, and we know that Arianne has been sent by Doran to treat with them, but I'm not sure if Dorne will fully commit. So if they can't win Dorne's support will they force a march on KL? Which leads me to my next point.

Varys in KL: Varys has just killed the one man who would of had any hope of bettering the Lannister/Tyrell alliance, but with that off the table now, and the upcoming trials of both Margaery and Cersei... It's easy to see how this could work in JC and Aegon's favour. The Tyrells turn on Cersei, and look to set Aegon on the Throne.

I can see this being a very quick conquest for 'Aegon' as he may very well find KL open to him and an army already inside the RK, looking to support him. Let's not forget the faith, they are armed again and have a few thousand men. How do you think it will play out?

[ab aeterno]

Because this contains TWOW spoilers, I think it needs to be in spoiler tags, and perhaps in the TWOW forum. :)

For my part, and this is purely speculation, but I suspect that Doran won't be around for too much longer, that Arianne will become Princess of Dorne and that they will fully commit to Aegon's cause.

[Roose The Weddingcrasher]

What does the Iron Throne even mean at this point? Being King of the untrustworthy Tyrells, the tiny boring Stormlands and meaningless Crownlands, all of them shifting their allegiance for the third time in just some months? It's not Clash of Kings or Storm of Swords, i treally hope this sort of politics won't be important to the story anymore.

[Sordelor]

I think he lets Varys kill Kevan to destroy the Tyrell/ Lanniser pact, so Lord Mace doesn't go fight the golden company.

Then he tries to gain the support of Lord Doran and the Stormlords.

If that works he lets lord Doran attack The Reach so Lord Mace is forced to wether go there, but then there is a big chance Margaery is found guilty of the crimes, or stay in Kingslanding, but leave a smaller force to protect Highgarden.

If that works he will go and take KL before Roose Bolton deals with Stannis and can come to the south with the Freys to help Tommen.

[The Dornishman's Wife]

It's an interesting question. From Aegon's cyvasse game with Tyrion, he appears eager to overwhelm his opponent quickly. His actions towards the end of Dance / beginning of WOW point further into the direction that he's a rush-player who won't necessarily let Jon C's more cautious disposition slow him down.

So I expect he'll march quickly, trying to decide the war before his opponents have fully realized that it's even on. KL seems the most obvious target.

[Steinnis]

Because this contains TWOW spoilers, I think it needs to be in spoiler tags, and perhaps in the TWOW forum. :)

For my part, and this is purely speculation, but I suspect that Doran won't be around for too much longer, that Arianne will become Princess of Dorne and that they will fully commit to Aegon's cause.

It's a fairly minor 'spoiler'. But I also don't know how to spoiler tag...

What does the Iron Throne even mean at this point? Being King of the untrustworthy Tyrells, the tiny boring Stormlands and meaningless Crownlands, all of them shifting their allegiance for the third time in just some months? It's not Clash of Kings or Storm of Swords, i treally hope this sort of politics won't be important to the story anymore.

The Tyrells have switched their allegiance twice already, and they have no cause to love the Lannister's at the moment. If they can get rid of Cersei, that leaves them in control. Varys could be setting things up for a swift fall.

[ab aeterno]

It's a fairly minor 'spoiler'. But I also don't know how to spoiler tag...

For spoiler tags, just type [ spoiler ] at the beginning of what you want to hide and [/ spoiler ] at the end, but without the spaces. :)

[Morienthar]

Depends on the outcome of the trails if the trails go against Marge and Cersei is acquitted then I think there's going to be a Sack of Kings Landing.

[Lord Stunny]

Wait is Storms End already taken, might have missed that..but I don't think he can win the support of the StormLords, for certain, some of them are with Stannis and they are staunch Baratheon bannermen....

[Beastman]

The speculation sounds really goodbut i think JC may just die of grey scale faster than we think. I mean it is GRRM here people.

[The Dornishman's Wife]

The speculation sounds really goodbut i think JC may just die of grey scale faster than we think. I mean it is GRRM here people.

I would be surprised if JC dies of it before the campaign is finished - that would just be too soon. For now, the Greyscale mainly serves to make him okay with accelerating their plans. Later it may serve as a plot point when it is revealed and at the very end he may eventually die from it... but probably not before the Dance is danced.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

I think the Tyrells will abandon King's Landing entirely, not support Aegon's claim. They'll use Euron's attacks as an excuse, and flee King's Landing, especially once Margaery is found guilty.

I think Aegon will look to Dorne for support, but somehow Arianne will discover that Aegon is not truly who he says he is, so Doran will not send his men to support Aegon, but to for another purpose. Still, Aegon will push his advance, and actually take King's Landing, killing Tommen in the process and destroying the Faith Militant. My next guess is that in the ultimate irony, it will be Doran saving Cersei, and seating a Myrcella/Trystane combination on the throne, killing (f)Aegon in the process. Finally the incest will be revealed, invalidating Myrcella's claim and the Vale, the remnants of the North and Riverrun will unite with the Tyrells to seat Edric Storm + Margaery just as Dany lands to take on the Others who have broken through the wall.

[Steinnis]

For spoiler tags, just type [ spoiler ] at the beginning of what you want to hide and [/ spoiler ] at the end, but without the spaces. :)

Thanks for the tip.

I agree with what others have said, that it depends largely on the outcome of the trials. I'm still not sold on Dorne supporting him as Doran already suspects that 'Aegon' is an imposter.

One thing I meant to bring up in the OP was that if Dorne won't back Aegon, will JC go to Dorne to try and convince Doran? He would be losing the momentum he's gained by 'stalling' like this...

And of course Varys could be in contact with JC and tell him to march on KL immediately as he could arrange to have the city open to their attack, and they probably won't have a better chance with the Lannister's and Tyrell's in dissarray.

[ab aeterno]

Thanks for the tip.

I agree with what others have said, that it depends largely on the outcome of the trials. I'm still not sold on Dorne supporting him as Doran already suspects that 'Aegon' is an imposter.

One thing I meant to bring up in the OP was that if Dorne won't back Aegon, will JC go to Dorne to try and convince Doran? He would be losing the momentum he's gained by 'stalling' like this...

And of course Varys could be in contact with JC and tell him to march on KL immediately as he could arrange to have the city open to their attack, and they probably won't have a better chance with the Lannister's and Tyrell's in dissarray.

ETA: You're welcome. :)

While it seems that Arianne's task is to determine whether Aegon is a Targaryen, I think there is likely to be more to their decision. I don't think the Martells are necessarily Targaryen loyalists, per se; they're in it for themselves. An marriage with Viserys or Dany to overthrow Robert (if it were practical,) would put either Arianne or Quentyn on the throne of Westeros and allow them to take their revenge on the Lannisters. Aegon, assuming he is real, would be perfect for them, being a nephew of the Prince of Dorne, but I don't think Aegon being fake will be enough to preclude the Dornish siding with him, especially when they hear about Quentyn's death in the context of the rumors in Dorne about the death of Viserys (whether Dany is mad like her father.) Dany will likely end up as a target of Dornish revenge as well, I suspect, and Aegon, real or not, is the best agent for this.

As for Doran, there isn't any explicit evidence, but the tone of the text around Doran has always given me the impression that his days are numbered, and I think for narrative reasons it is likely that he will die relatively early on in Winds, turning Dorne over to Arianne. This is purely speculation, but I do think it's likely.

[Steinnis]

ETA: You're welcome. :)

While it seems that Arianne's task is to determine whether Aegon is a Targaryen, I think there is likely to be more to their decision. I don't think the Martells are necessarily Targaryen loyalists, per se; they're in it for themselves. An marriage with Viserys or Dany to overthrow Robert (if it were practical,) would put either Arianne or Quentyn on the throne of Westeros and allow them to take their revenge on the Lannisters. Aegon, assuming he is real, would be perfect for them, being a nephew of the Prince of Dorne, but I don't think Aegon being fake will be enough to preclude the Dornish siding with him, especially when they hear about Quentyn's death in the context of the rumors in Dorne about the death of Viserys (whether Dany is mad like her father.) Dany will likely end up as a target of Dornish revenge as well, I suspect, and Aegon, real or not, is the best agent for this.

As for Doran, there isn't any explicit evidence, but the tone of the text around Doran has always given me the impression that his days are numbered, and I think for narrative reasons it is likely that he will die relatively early on in Winds, turning Dorne over to Arianne. This is purely speculation, but I do think it's likely.

What you propose would kind of be like a 'quick win' for the Dornish, as they could get their revenge on the Lannister's and with the possible marriage of Arriane and Aegon. But things will probably go south for them if/when Dany reaches Westeros.

IDK, Doran has sat out the war this long, I'm thinking he'll wait it out to hear the news of Dany/Quentyn before he makes his move. And when he finally does 'call the spears' who he chooses will very much depend on who he recieves the news from or how he hears of it.

I think if Doran dies early, then Arianne will likely side with Aegon. As her ambition will probably cloud her judgement.

[ab aeterno]

What you propose would kind of be like a 'quick win' for the Dornish, as they could get their revenge on the Lannister's and with the possible marriage of Arriane and Aegon. But things will probably go south for them if/when Dany reaches Westeros.

IDK, Doran has sat out the war this long, I'm thinking he'll wait it out to hear the news of Dany/Quentyn before he makes his move. And when he finally does 'call the spears' who he chooses will very much depend on who he recieves the news from or how he hears of it.

I think if Doran dies early, then Arianne will likely side with Aegon. As her ambition will probably cloud her judgement.

I suspect that it is likely that the news about Quentyn will precede Dany, and I'm fairly sure that was the purpose of the line comparing Dany to Aerys; I also don't think Dany's conquest of Westeros will be as easy as it seems at first. Remember, the Dornish have a history of resisting the dragons.

[Steinnis]

I suspect that it is likely that the news about Quentyn will precede Dany, and I'm fairly sure that was the purpose of the line comparing Dany to Aerys; I also don't think Dany's conquest of Westeros will be as easy as it seems at first. Remember, the Dornish have a history of resisting the dragons.

It will be like the Red Waste all over again for her, if it comes to that. :)

[Agravayne]

Assuming that Aegon is real, it will be hard for the Dornish NOT to support him -- Aegon would be Doran's nephew.

[Sordelor]

You are all saying that Aegon is fake, but what if he's real?

If he was fake I don't see why Varyys told Kevan he is real.

Not saying he is real, but there is a chance that he's real.

[Agravayne]

Actually, I think it is more than likely that Aegon is real. Varys has no reason to lie to Ser Kevan as he lays dying.