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The Young Falcon: Chances of Victory


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#1 Dead Wolf

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Posted 18 August 2013 - 03:53 PM

When Littlefinger is talking to Sansa about the succession of the Eyrie he refers to Harry the Heir as "The Young Falcon" which leads me to believe Littlefinger wants him to lead the army of the Vale against the Lannisters or to the North to reclaim Winterfell. So, what are his chances of success? The North is in chaos with the pwer vaccum at Winterfell and the riverlands are spent, so they have no support. However, the Lannisters are a spent force now, so leading his army west makes more sense. Thoughts?

#2 Wise Fool

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Posted 18 August 2013 - 03:55 PM

I don't think LF has any true intent to take Winterfell or conquer the Lannisters. The former he is using as a carrot to dangle before Sansa, and the latter will likely happen without his help at all.

#3 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 18 August 2013 - 04:24 PM

With the information available to Littlefinger at the time (Bran and Rickon dead), his chances would be reasonably good.

The Lannister military power is extinguished, leaving the Tyrells as the only force to back Tommen and bleeding for it every day. With Cersei wrecking it. The North would flock to any Stark. The Riverlands are property of House Baelish of Harrenhal on one hand, would follow a wolf or trout on the other hand and are ready to follow anybody promising them vengeance against Lannister and Frey (they actually have a rather reasonable fighting force left, it's the missing leadership and the hostages that are problematic). The Dornish won't fight for the Lannisters.
Therefore, the alliance of wolf and falcon actually are the most powerful, politically and militarily both.

#4 viking warrior

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Posted 18 August 2013 - 04:39 PM

Agree with Blue Eyes here. The Vale will be the deciding force from here on, whoever they join will probably win the war(unless Dorne joins the opposite off course).

#5 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 18 August 2013 - 04:42 PM

Agree with Blue Eyes here. The Vale will be the deciding force from here on, whoever they join will probably win the war(unless Dorne joins the opposite off course).

Well, the Vale has at least 30% more manpower than the Dornish - and the Dornish are already suffering.

The Vale and the Reach are currently the two military and economic powerhouses.

#6 Don Roberto

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Posted 18 August 2013 - 04:50 PM

Well, ignoring Shadrick's potential threat to the union, and Littlefinger's own plans which are likely more obscure than simple conquest, I believe Harry's chances look quite good. The Vale has been untouched by the war, it and Dorne being the only regions still holding their full power. Whatever happens (or has happened) in Winterfell by the end of Dance, I believe the North would turn away from the Boltons as soon as Sansa shows up with an army. With the strength of the North and the Vale, and the Westerlands in disarray, retaking the riverlands would be easy enough, even for an inexperienced commander like Harry. If he decides to stop at that, his victory would be pretty much settled for the time being.

But of course, we know things never run this smoothly.

#7 Jon Blackfyre

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Posted 18 August 2013 - 04:57 PM

I had a similar thou in another thread about the Blackfish. He will show up in the Eyrie, throw Littlefinger out the Moon Door, advise Sansa not to marry Harry and lead the army of the Vale himself to finish off Lannister control of the Riverlands.

#8 viking warrior

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Posted 18 August 2013 - 04:57 PM

Well, the Vale has at least 30% more manpower than the Dornish - and the Dornish are already suffering.

The Vale and the Reach are currently the two military and economic powerhouses.

Well off course but still, 25-30k would still hurt the vale, just see how Robb did with lesser forces. But if the Vale saves the north then the riverlands united under the banner of Stannis we will get an almost undefeatable alliance resembling the alliance during Roberts rebellion.

I had a similar thou in another thread about the Blackfish. He will show up in the Eyrie, throw Littlefinger out the Moon Door, advise Sansa not to marry Harry and lead the army of the Vale himself to finish off Lannister control of the Riverlands.

I second this notion.

Edited by viking warrior, 18 August 2013 - 05:03 PM.


#9 The-Paul-Arron00

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Posted 18 August 2013 - 06:55 PM

Why would he tell Sansa not to marry him. Without her marrying Harry the vale armies are neither his nor hers to command or dispose of.

#10 Mist Isle

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Posted 18 August 2013 - 07:11 PM

The Vale is in a very good position right now with its military reserves and food supplies. The Lannisters pose little threat to any armies from the Vale and the Tyrells are about to be deeply pressed by Aegon (and are already facing trouble from Euron).

Sansa Stark, Harrold Hardyng, the Blackfish, and other factors could potentially unite the Vale, North, and Riverlands. Potential developments with Stannis and Rickon could interact with the Vale situation.

Edited by Mist Isle, 18 August 2013 - 07:41 PM.


#11 E-Ro

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Posted 18 August 2013 - 07:15 PM

Well off course but still, 25-30k would still hurt the vale, just see how Robb did with lesser forces. But if the Vale saves the north then the riverlands united under the banner of Stannis we will get an almost undefeatable alliance resembling the alliance during Roberts rebellion.

This is a very real possibility. And man, that would be so amazing.

#12 Jon Blackfyre

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Posted 18 August 2013 - 09:24 PM

Why would he tell Sansa not to marry him. Without her marrying Harry the vale armies are neither his nor hers to command or dispose of.


He served there for many a year and might just claim Lord Protector over his great-nephew. Most Lords in the Vale would know him to be a good man and might just be obliged to fall in line with his plan. Problem solved.

Or, have her marry Harry, and he still runs the show.