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College football 2013 week 2: OVERCOME ADVERSITY


Kalbear

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I'm glad WSU got the win. I used to work with a great guy who played there in college and I'm also a Leach fan. I do think this will spell the end of the Lane Kiffin experiment.

No need for meltdown. Going into the season, I thought WVU was going to be the worst team in the conference. They hung tough against one of the conference front runners and repeatedly came up with big plays on defense. The defense was a major bright spot, and should at least keep WVU from being blown out from here one out. The QB who played is frankly just not very good, though, IMO. Both OU and WVU need to look in a different direction I think.

Yea I agree. Millard doesn't have the arm strength to be a D1 QB. I'm pretty sure he started simply because he knew the offense better than the other guys. The impression I've gotten from DH's press conferences are that they like Trickett but he is still elarning the offense. Millard knew it so I can't really fault them for playing him against OU in the second game of the season. All Millard had to do was manage the game, but he just isn't consistent enough. Next week is against Georgia State and I'm looking for Trickett or Childress to start. By all accounts GSU is a horrible football team and I'd be a little disappointed in the staff if they didn't get someone other than Millard some significant reps. Let them play in a game where they can (hopefully) afford to make a few mistakes and still get the W.

For OU, I pretty much knew WVU was done once Bell went in. He didn't throw much, but when Knight was in there I didn't feel like he was quite able to put us away whereas I figured Bell wouldn't make any big mistakes. Knight has a lot of upside though, I think he'll be very good when he is older. Tough call for OU, imo.

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I went back a couple threads to pull out my predictions. I'm reposting the whole thing here, because I find it amusing.

What's funniest is that when I did the first draft of my predictions for the season I actually put the Washington State game as an L, then talked myself out of it to 'toss up leaning W' when I realized that kept us from six wins and I couldn't bear to predict fewer than six. Washington state seemed to be the best possibility to get to six wins back in July.

Here's my full "season prediction post" from July:

Posted 15 July 2013 - 10:12 AM

so what's the over-under on when Lane Kiffen gets fired?

I figure he goes 6-7 games, and after a 2-3 game loosing streak switches starting QBs right after the Notre Dame game, then there'll be a couple losses and incredible pressure to fire him. Haden will hold out, but the recruits will bail which will cause Haden to fire Kiff if he fails to beat Colorado and is 5-6 going into the UCLA game, which would likely mean they'll not be bowl eligible.

The problem with firing Kiff midseason is who to move up to replace him? The advantage is you get a headstart on the search for a new coach.

The question is, who can he hire? Not that it matters, if you fire Kiffen this year, you'll be firing whoever replaces him after three years. If Kiff can hold out another year or two, with middling 8 win seasons (that seems a stretch), the ideal time to fire him will be a year after the scholarship sanctions run out, so not after the 2013 season, not after the 2014 season, but after the 2015 season. Why? Because that gives the new coach the magic number of a full roster in his third year of coaching: there will be one year of Kiffin's first full class of 25 recruits, plus three years of the new coaches.

If you fire Kiffin this year, you're setting your new coach up for failure, because in his crucial third year he's going to be fucked by having all the mini-classes of 13-15 kids being juniors and seniors. So firing Kiffin this year means you are pretty much obligated to fire your new coach as well in three years because it's almost impossible for him to succeed. OTOH, the new coach could recruit lots of JC juniors and seniors as part of his recruiting classes, but that will just lengthen the problem, long term.

I guess my hope is that Kiffin muddles through with 8 wins or so, and stays on for another year, because that will make it a bit easier on the next coach, who won't have to deal with recruiting any 15 recruit classes. Having all the mini classes done with would also make it easier to get any coach Haden wants--in fact next year could be good, because a new coach might view the three extant mini classes as enabling him to really remake the program 100% in his vision from the ground up.

I think it might be good if Sumlin keeps failing to win the SEC to hire him in a couple years, but he'd probably need three years of failing to win the conference before he'd be willing to jump ship to the PAC.

As for predicting USC:

Hawaii - W

Washington State - toss up, leaning W

Boston College - W

Utah State - toss up, leaning W

Arizona State - L

Arizona - L

Notre Dame - L

Utah - toss up, leaning L

Oregon State - L

California - toss up, leaning W

Stanford - L

Colorado - W

UCLA - L

Total: 6-7

Kind of sad the only conference team I'm confident we can beat is Colorado.

The thing about the "lane kiffin experiment" is he's going to find it near impossible to get hired as a head coach. Every head coach and AD should look at him and say, "if he can't win at USC with all their advantages, talent and program, how on earth could he win in a place with less resources on every front?

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The thing about the "lane kiffin experiment" is he's going to find it near impossible to get hired as a head coach. Every head coach and AD should look at him and say, "if he can't win at USC with all their advantages, talent and program, how on earth could he win in a place with less resources on every front?

I wonder that myself sometimes but RichRod failed at Michigan and is now at Arizona which is a decent program. I guess Rich still had some leftover mojo from his time at WVU and I do think his UM teams were improving but he was a horrible fit there in any case. Kiffin doesn't have a successful program pre-USC to hang his hat on. But some desperate team will probably pick him up. Coaching is a rare business where you can be terrible at your job, get fired, and still get paid millions at a new job.

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During last season, and culminating in last weeks game and the emotional fallout over the long weekend spent with fellow fans and alums, I've gone through denial, anger and bargaining. Last year featured a lot of anger...

This game was an amazing change for me, none of the above, it was depression, followed by acceptance.

and I had hit acceptance before halftime, when it seemed apparent the team did not have the will and the coach did not have the plays to win the game.

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Every cloud has a silver lining though, USC improved to 3-13 on third down conversions! 23%!!!

on the other hand, we were only 3-14 on third down conversions last week, and I don't think we converted any third downs in the first half, so maybe it's not an improvement, maybe it's actually a regression because we didn't even get to 14 third downs?

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Lane Kiffin might not make it out of LA Coliseum alive after this. Odds on a mid-season firing?

Why? its not his fault, blah, blah, blah, sanction, blah blah, blah, Reggie F ing Bush, blah, blah blah. Has there every been a coach that has burned as many bridges, and still gets "these" type jobs? Remember when we thought it was Al Davis fault?

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The worst thing about the 'Horns performance was the 549 rushing yards given up: a record total in over a hundred years of UT football history and 250 yards to BYU's QB alone. Adrian Peterson did that to UT once, but this guy ain't him. Mack Brown's job may not be in immediate jeopardy---as in Monday morning, but you can bet the AD will be hearing from the alums next week loudly and at great length. Dodds can't ignore that, any more than he can ignore the University President reminding him about the importance of alumni contributions.

One person whose job will be on the line, however, is the defensive coordinator. It will be a long week for him, and if the defense does this badly against Old Miss.......

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well, auburns D was gashed up the middle several times and once again played way too soft in pass coverage but they sure did get their backs straight once Arky st got inside the red zone. As the game went on, it was clear that auburn had better conditioned athletes which speaks volumes if you caught a game last year. Arky state isn't a bad team, sporting two consecutive 10 win seasons and a sun belt championship but i'm not foolish enough to think that they are major conference talented.

I was happy to see some good D line play and some nice runs by the RB unit. Nick needs to learn another arm speed other than ICBM but he threw a couple of nice balls. I guess we'll see how we hold up next week against miss state. I'm glad the thread is back and I have more to say on some of the other games but I'm excited about auburn football. we're a couple of years away but we are recruiting well and gus seems like a nice hire so far.

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As a Texas fan, I have always liked Mac Brown as well, but the last three years have been hard to take. Yesterday, they allowed the most rushing yards in school history. I think that it is probably time for Brown to go.

Also, Manny Diaz the defensive coordinator needs to be fired this week.

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Why? its not his fault, blah, blah, blah, sanction, blah blah, blah, Reggie F ing Bush, blah, blah blah. Has there every been a coach that has burned as many bridges, and still gets "these" type jobs? Remember when we thought it was Al Davis fault?

His ridiculous streak of luck is finally running out. Or at least, I hope it is. The only things he's ever had going for him were his famous last name and his ability to recruit, and he's blown all his equity in the name. Some lesser program will probably hire him for a head coaching job down the road, but if it's a situation where he's asked to build a program from the ground up I don't think he's capable of doing that.

As a Texas fan, I have always liked Mac Brown as well, but the last three years have been hard to take. Yesterday, they allowed the most rushing yards in school history. I think that it is probably time for Brown to go.

Also, Manny Diaz the defensive coordinator needs to be fired this week.

I hate that BYU just rolled all over you guys because it's a sure-fire recipe for the team to get refocused and pissed off just in time for Ole Miss to visit Austin this week.

Diaz's failure is bizarre considering what a hot commodity he was just a couple of years ago. I remember MSU fans melting down when he left for Texas, though he'd have been crazy not to take that job.

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So was UVA just that bad, Kalbear? Are you saying it would have and should have been more of a rout? I missed the majority of the game.

I don't know if UVA was just bad - but they were not good everywhere. Oregon could have easily been up at 50 at half if they had played just a bit better. They called three inside run plays in a row that did absolutely nothing, as an example. Outside runs were doing great all day, some passing was good...but so many dropped passes, not the best of offensive plays, and the defense would seemingly give up 8-9 yards every other play.
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The worst thing about the 'Horns performance was the 549 rushing yards given up: a record total in over a hundred years of UT football history and 250 yards to BYU's QB alone. Adrian Peterson did that to UT once, but this guy ain't him. Mack Brown's job may not be in immediate jeopardy---as in Monday morning, but you can bet the AD will be hearing from the alums next week loudly and at great length. Dodds can't ignore that, any more than he can ignore the University President reminding him about the importance of alumni contributions.

One person whose job will be on the line, however, is the defensive coordinator. It will be a long week for him, and if the defense does this badly against Old Miss.......

As a Texas fan, I have always liked Mac Brown as well, but the last three years have been hard to take. Yesterday, they allowed the most rushing yards in school history. I think that it is probably time for Brown to go.

Also, Manny Diaz the defensive coordinator needs to be fired this week.

Manny Diaz is toast. Mack Brown will be safe for a while, since he'll be able to pin this on Diaz. Only question is whether he's gone tomorrow or at the end of the season (or after another humiliating loss, to say Tech, TCU (again), WVU, ISU, or Ole Miss. I don't really see why this year will be the year that Brown finally has to answer for his mediocrity... the man (and his buddy Dodds) are too good at dodging donor bullets.

Do you guys read shaggybevo or Barking Carnival? Those guys are in FULL MELTDOWN mode. The schadenfreude is great but would be better if my own team hadn't badly rattled me this weekend. Here's a link to BC's post-game writeup.... it's a good read for anyone, really, but UT fans (or haters) in particular.

So here's my question from the weekend. What is up with Texas? The comparative score game always lead to madness, but Oregon slaughters Virginia who beats BYU who whoops Texas?

Longhorn defense, which was supposed to be a bright spot this season, apparently didn't realize that quarterbacks are capable of passing and running. In this case it was even worse since BYU was almost totally unable to pass the ball. Lot of Horn fans saying that Diaz, who came from an SEC team, has no idea how to gameplan for dual-threat quarterbacks, which is really bad news in the Big 12 against Baker Mayfield, Treyvone Boykin, Belldozer, etc.

Add to that the failure of Horns' offensive line to protect either the run or the pass, and the failure of 9 of 11 defensive starters (the corners played well) to do anything at all, and overall just soft, weak play from Texas. It's a problem they've had in the past - there seems to be a real entitlement attitude problem in Austin, and it's not going away until Brown does.

Edit - Per Orangebloods.com, Manny Diaz has been fired. Anybody looking for a subpar DC?

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Manny Diaz was fired today... It is not like we didn't see this coming. There was no other response to the fiasco in Provo other than to have heads roll. I for one was ready to see him go.

What I would really like to see happen is for Mac Brown to finish out the season, and be able to leave with a bowl win. Next year, I would like to see Mike Leach as the head coach of Texas.

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I can't believe they replaced Diaz with Greg Robinson though. His Syracuse teams when he was head coach were a laughingstock and Michigan's D was nothing special when he coordinated there afterwards. Just another one of those 'how the hell does this guy keep getting awesome jobs' coaching mysteries. Maybe he was the only real option on short notice, but he's definitely not the guy I would have picked to right a sinking ship.

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Manny Diaz was fired today... It is not like we didn't see this coming. There was no other response to the fiasco in Provo other than to have heads roll. I for one was ready to see him go.

What do you think of Mack hiring Greg Robinson as the interim replacement? The reception I've seen from UT fans online has been less than positive.

Next year, I would like to see Mike Leach as the head coach of Texas.

Leach would be a quantum shift from Mack Brown, which might be what the program needs...but I can't see the school hiring him. Leach is very forthright regarding his disdain for schmoozing with alumni, which is all but a requirement at a program like Texas, not to mention all the additional obligations with the press that accompany Longhorn Network coverage. I like Mike Leach a lot but he seems like a very poor fit for that job.

A little potential good news for Texas regarding the Ole Miss matchup - Our top CB, who sat out the game Saturday night to nurse a nagging injury and be ready for the Texas game, was arrested for DUI early Sunday morning. No word from Freeze on whether he'll sit for this game or not. If so it makes our weakest unit on the field (by far) that much worse.

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I know most people were watching the ND/Michigan game at the same time WVU played. But here were my two favorite plays:

http://rapidhdd.com/images/609230WVU2013GoldsonSackFumbleOklahoma.gif

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHSA0YzB8tk&feature=youtu.be

Lots of potential. More than I thought going in. I hope it comes together sooner rather than later. With Texas looking a little down and with WVU having some good backs I'm hoping we can sneak a win there. Remains to be seen how the D will do against a more prolific offence in Oklahoma State and Baylor. But I'm willing to say a couple more conference wins are up for grabs than I would have said 1 week ago. I'm not one for moral victories really, but that wasn't a terrible loss. Correctable mistakes. Even with Millard, who I think is inadequate at QB, there were a couple big dropped passes and huge ST mistakes that would've put the game within reach.

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Cowherd pointed out something totally obvious, but it's worth repeating.

USC doesn't just have two three 5-star QB's on its roster. It has one of the must unstoppable WR's in college history. So seven points at home is really atrocious. Lane is so screwed.

If Jim Tressel can fly out and be at tomorrow's practice we can fire Kiffin today. :)

Might as well hire a coach who actually did cover up player malfeasance since we're being punished for doing it even though USC didn't do anything.

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What do you think of Mack hiring Greg Robinson as the interim replacement? The reception I've seen from UT fans online has been less than positive.

He did a fairly decent job the last time he was here in 2004. The program has suffered a lot since Muschamp left for Florida, but he will do for the rest of the season. I just didn't want to see Manny on the sideline again. When a team breaks an all time rushing record against a team that has been playing for well over 100 years, there needs to be an immediate change.

Leach would be a quantum shift from Mack Brown, which might be what the program needs...but I can't see the school hiring him. Leach is very forthright regarding his disdain for schmoozing with alumni, which is all but a requirement at a program like Texas, not to mention all the additional obligations with the press that accompany Longhorn Network coverage. I like Mike Leach a lot but he seems like a very poor fit for that job.

You are absolutely right here, but I still would love to see Leach.... It will not happen, but I would love to see it.

A little potential good news for Texas regarding the Ole Miss matchup - Our top CB, who sat out the game Saturday night to nurse a nagging injury and be ready for the Texas game, was arrested for DUI early Sunday morning. No word from Freeze on whether he'll sit for this game or not. If so it makes our weakest unit on the field (by far) that much worse.

With all due respect to you and your favorite program, at this point I have to just look at that BYU game as an anomaly. Texas has just too much talent for that to be a season long happenstance. I fully expect the Longhorns to trounce Ole Miss. They will wind up with a lot more frustrating games this year, but I really don't think that this will be one of them.

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The thing is, Texas always has that much talent, even when they went 5-7 a few years ago. At some point you have to acknowledge that there is a real issue with either motivation, player development, or both.

As for Robinson, he was good in 2004, but he was really bad at Michigan - his second defensive unit was ranked 110 in the NCAA. His first was only like 82nd. He will almost certainly be better than Diaz, since how much worse could it get, but he's pretty clearly just an interim.

Also, apparently the reason he was hired was that he was already working for Brown as an "analyst" since the summer. Some speculate that Brown knew Diaz would roll this season (possibly to deflect blame away from Brown) and wanted somebody ready in the wings.

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