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Show us that Aegon VI is really Aegon


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1. baby swaps are the new black

2. A mother wouldn't recognize a pisswater alley substitute in lieu of her own baby

3. Gregor was in on it because Rhaeger anointed him

4. The "mummer's dragon" = Dany, or simply refers to "Varys' Dragon" if Aegon is still the referent

5. Aegon dyes his hair because blond hair= Targ, and only Targs have the purple/ blond combo

I'm trying to recall some of the arguments from that amazing thread last summer about this-- the one that went on for like 30 pages-- you know which one I'm talking about. The fact that Queen Alysanne had blue eyes meant she was a bastard, and this revelation was used in support of why Aegon, who doesn't have blue eyes, means that he's not a bastard and a true Targ. So I guess the argument that Queen Alysanne= a bastard should be on that list.

Oh yes that one. Poor Alysanne.

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But that's what he does — he regularly presents information that isn't true and expects readers to figure out what really happened for themselves. Unless you think Davos is really dead, the Lannisters really did kill Jon Arryn and Jon Snow is somehow simultaneously the son of Wylla, Ashara and a fisherman's daughter.

As for "bad writing," I'd say that bad writing involves setting up, say, a sellsword company that was founded to put a Blackfyre on the throne and is based on a hatred of Targaryens and that never breaks a contract ... breaking a contract to put a real Targaryen on the throne. That is "bad writing."

There is quite a difference between Manderly lying about Davos or Lysa lying about her husband and the way young Griff is presented as Aegon. The Jon thing is set up to be a big revelation from the beginning of the series, which is what makes it work as opposed to just TA-DAing it just before the end.

Admittedly that makes even pulling a real Aegon out of nowhere kind of lame, and indeed I think it was. Revealing his fakeness in the next book would be pushing it though.

As for the blackfyre thing, the golden company was supposed to back Viserys before he died. Or are they also lying to themselves about that?

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He has to be a fake, why would Elia fight Clegane for a baby that isn't hers and why wouldn't she make sure Rhaenys left with him?

I love the idea that he sits on the throne because only the readers find out he's a fake. Him and everyone else believe he's the son of Rhaegar and Elia ;)

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For me the biggest argument for Aegon being real would be a view on Varys as a supporter of Targ rule. That is not so far fetched i think.

Varys could easily be viewed as a good servant to Aerys who went mad because of his whispers, but those whispers were all true for all we know (Tywin 's influence, Rhaegar's influence, Southron ambitions, close the gates) so why tell good advice on an off chance the king would go mad.

One thing that could negate all this though, would be Varys greatly influencing Aerys to kill Rickard and Brandon (knowing or not knowing about their Southron ambitions).

It would reduce Illyrio to just someone who loves the Game and wants to be master of coin and not caring which dragon gets him that, while Varys pushes Aegon most believing he should be the best king.

Still, the Blackfyre theory is very strong.

I made The Pisswater-Tarnished Water Pince theory once as well, i will work on it more until i release it again.

Anyhow, i cheer for him.

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And as I suggested in the OP, we have argued for two years now, repeatedly, why he is fake. I'd love to know why he's real other than, "Because Varys says so," which is, frankly, bullshit.

In all seriousness, in order to prove that Aegon = Aegon (or AegonB), I think you have to satisfactorily explain Varys and Illyrio's endgames (which may not be the same), and compare Aegon's story to Jon's (who are pretty clearly supposed to be foils-- both as "long lost Targ heirs," as well as the fact that Jon pretty much is the sort of king hopeful Varys talks about to Kevan in DwD) above and beyond the types of evidence that yield the simple premise of "possible or not" and foreshadowing hints.

If you write out Varys' endgame at it superficially appears (starting from the idea that they truly backed V+D), then it doesn't truly make sense. That is, Varys and Illyrio- together- do not really appear to be working toward a Targ restoration, which really calls into question Aegon's veracity as Rhaeger's son.

I think the fact that Varys would be misleading to a dead man has an easy counter. Varys was not alone when he killed Kevan; the little birds are there. Little birds that report to both Varys and Illyrio. I suspect that Varys and Illyrio do not have the same endgame in mind. If Varys is being misleading here about who Aegon is, this could be Varys' way of proclaiming his trueness to Illyrio's Aegon mission (friends they may be, but I doubt that old pros such as V + I don't spy even on each other).

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The first time I read the Aegon reveal chapter, I thought it was bullshit. When I read Kevin's epilouge chapter I knew it was bullshit. The whole mother wouldn't know the difference between her own child and another baby is absurd to say the least. Add in all the other supporting evidence that others have highlighted and I think it is a no-brainer that Aegon is FAgeon.

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The fact is there is evidence either way and that's the way the author intended. You're not supposed to know for sure yet, although more signs point to him being fake.

Everybody already knows all of the details as to why he may or may not be real. There is literally no possible way the discussion can evolve past the point where it seems he's most likely fake but could possibly be real without reading more of the books. That's how it was set up until this point. It's not like R+L=J which has enough detail within the text to figure out the truth with no reasonable alternative.

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I think the fact that Varys would be misleading to a dead man has an easy counter. Varys was not alone when he killed Kevan; the little birds are there. Little birds that report to both Varys and Illyrio. I suspect that Varys and Illyrio do not have the same endgame in mind. If Varys is being misleading here about who Aegon is, this could be Varys' way of proclaiming his trueness to Illyrio's Aegon mission (friends they may be, but I doubt that old pros such as V + I don't spy even on each other).

There's also the Petyr Baelish School of Making Shit Up: Keep up the lie even when you don't have to, to avoid slipping later.

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The first time I read the Aegon reveal chapter, I thought it was bullshit. When I read Kevin's epilouge chapter I knew it was bullshit. The whole mother wouldn't know the difference between her own child and another baby is absurd to say the least. Add in all the other supporting evidence that others have highlighted and I think it is a no-brainer that Aegon is FAgeon.

I wonder this thing about his mother not know difference between her own child and another baby,it can be possibility that Ella was part of the plan of changing the children , forsake of her son may live and what mother would not do that if there was possibility that her son may live by sacrificing another child.

Since in desperate time people are willing do desperate thing even giving their children away forsake that they may live another day.

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I wonder this thing about his mother not know difference between her own child and another baby,it can be possibility that Ella was part of the plan of changing the children , forsake of her son may live and what mother would not do that if there was possibility that her son may live by sacrificing another child.

Since in desperate time people are willing do desperate thing even giving their children away forsake that they may live another day.

But why, in her desperation, try to save some child totally unrelated to her, when her own daughter was in danger too?

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But why, in her desperation, try to save some child totally unrelated to her, when her own daughter was in danger too?

Yes, I think Elia would have insisted on both kids getting out. And I have never bought the idea that Aegon could be smuggled out but Rhaenys couldn't. Varys can get Illyrio into and out of the bowels of the castle with no one knowing, and he smuggles Tyrion out easily enough. They could have gotten both children away. Hell, in the confusion, they probably could've gotten Elia away too.

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But why, in her desperation, try to save some child totally unrelated to her, when her own daughter was in danger too?

since he is also the heir of throne and also it is much easier to switch an young born child and with another young born child than child which was at same age of his sister.

And also if she had choose of either seeing one of her child live instead of both dead then I think she would rather have one child was live rather than having both of them dead.

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since he is also the heir of throne and also it is much easier to switch an young born child and with another young born child than child which was at same age of his sister.

And also if she had choose of either seeing one of her child live instead of both dead then I think she would rather have one child was live rather than having both of them dead.

OK, here's my next question: Why go through the trouble of a switch? Why not smuggle them out and be done with it?

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As for "bad writing," I'd say that bad writing involves setting up, say, a sellsword company that was founded to put a Blackfyre on the throne and is based on a hatred of Targaryens and that never breaks a contract ... breaking a contract to put a real Targaryen on the throne. That is "bad writing."

People change. Especially people who don't even remember the last Blackfyre and just want to get home. After all, what can they expect of life in Essos? They already are the best-reputed company. Basically, they've reached the full potential of what they could be there. It's natural to get homesick.

The whole mother wouldn't know the difference between her own child and another baby is absurd to say the least.

Oh, for the baby-switching conspiracy to work, Elia would almost definitely had to be in on it. A mother would do anything to keep her baby safe.

But why, in her desperation, try to save some child totally unrelated to her, when her own daughter was in danger too?

Because when a baby cries, you pick it up, no matter if it's yours or not. It's maternal instinct, pure and simple.

And I think she didn't know where Rhaenys was. IIRC, she panicked and ran out of the room.

Also, keep in mind that Elia probably thought she had more time to act. After all, Clegane and Lorch were sent in advance of the main Lannister force - so when Gregor entered the room, the battle would've been happening in the city, not in the keep itself.

The fact is there is evidence either way and that's the way the author intended. You're not supposed to know for sure yet, although more signs point to him being fake.

Maybe we aren't supposed to know at all? I have a feeling that Aegon, true or false, will succeed in claiming the Iron Throne and then die shortly after that. I base this on two things:

1. GRRM hinted in an interview that the IT will have several occupants before the end of the story

2. Aegon is very likely to win his war.

OK, here's my next question: Why go through the trouble of a switch? Why not smuggle them out and be done with it?

Maybe he couldn't? Maybe Varys isn't as omniscient and clever as some people think he is?

Or maybe he just adapted an already existing plan to smuggle Aegon out of the capital, devised by Rhaegar in order to spirit away his heir from his crazy father?

Also, since playing Devil's advocate seems to be in vogue in this thread - what if Varys' speech wasn't meant for Kevan, but for us?

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since he is also the heir of throne and also it is much easier to switch an young born child and with another young born child than child which was at same age of his sister.

And also if she had choose of either seeing one of her child live instead of both dead then I think she would rather have one child was live rather than having both of them dead.

That's still very unconvincing. It means that Varys walked up to her and said "It is likely that you and your children will soon be killed. Luckily I have found an easy way to safe your son. Any questions?"

I can imagine Elia not trying to escape, because she knows that her death would be a lot harder to fake, and if she just escapes people will be looking for her and her children, thereby endangering them. But if it's true that she actually resigned Rhaenys to be killed just so that Aegon's survival becomes a bit more likely, she was about the worst mother ever. Surely Rhaenys could be replaced as well.

Nah, if Aegon is real then Elia knew nothing about the plan. She might have realized, in her last few moments, that the child she was trying to defend was not actually her own, but she could not have been part of the deception. This was done by someone who did not care one bit about Rhaenys and Elia and just needed a male heir.

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