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Doesn't it seem weird how long R+L stayed at TOJ?


Nami

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We know it's an abandoned tower in the middle of nowhere, no communication and they were there for almost a year. I mean, what the hell were they doing?

It almost seems like they got together just to make babies, because Arthur and Whent stayed there the whole time, just doing nothing. (also, wouldn't be awkward?)

If they wanted to just be together 4eva why didn't they just cross the narrow sea and disappear?

I try to imagine what the hell were they doing in that tower. We know they were getting freaky, but seriously, for almost a year in an abandoned tower? Where did they get supplies? did they have cooks with them, maids or servants?

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Well, you also have to assume that at some point Lyanna got pregnant, and I bet they didn't want to risk. Given the involvement of Arthur Dayne, plus Wylla story, I imagine that food and other supplies were being brought from Starfall. Also, Rhaegar had no intention of disappearing, he had plans for his children...

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We know it's an abandoned tower in the middle of nowhere, no communication and they were there for almost a year. I mean, what the hell were they doing?

It almost seems like they got together just to make babies, because Arthur and Whent stayed there the whole time, just doing nothing. (also, wouldn't be awkward?)

If they wanted to just be together 4eva why didn't they just cross the narrow sea and disappear?

I try to imagine what the hell were they doing in that tower. We know they were getting freaky, but seriously, for almost a year in an abandoned tower? Where did they get supplies? did they have cooks with them, maids or servants?

I think their plan was to show up in KL with a baby. At that point everyone would have had to just deal with the situation: Lyanna would've been a Targaryen princess – yes, I'm assuming they were married – with a babe in tow. Even if the former could've been undone, it would've been pointless.

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I think Rhaegar intended to force Aerys into abdication and take over for him, which means they can't go into exile and stay there.

And yeah, they were probably doin' it. Jon's proof that they were having sex, at least.

As for supplies, I always figured Starfall was probably where they were getting that stuff.

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I think their plan was to show up in KL with a baby. At that point everyone would have had to just deal with the situation: Lyanna would've been a Targaryen princess – yes, I'm assuming they were married – with a babe in tow. Even if the former could've been undone, it would've been pointless.

This.

Not to mention that some part of the equation was that Rhaegar needed another child to be the third head of the dragon.

But take Brandon's idiocy, which had no chance of any positive outcome, out of the equation and what do you get?

Rickard, probably supported by Robert, make a formal demand/request for the return of Lyanna, suitably couched. Aerys points out he's in full agreement with them and would like to get his own hands on Rhaegar, and if they have any odea where to find the abscondees, please let him know.

Some letters etc change hands, but what can anyone do?

A year or so later Rhaegar shows up with his wife Lyanna, and a baby. there'll be some reparations of course, some lands, titles etc for the Starks and Robert, but the Starks got a better marriage than they dreamed of, a happy daughter, and a grandson who will be one illness or mishap away from direct line from the throne. Robert won't even want Lyanna back - he never really had her or truly loved her in the first place, and now she will be thoroughly 'spoiled' goods in his eyes, not to mention that he'll have moved on anyway.

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This.

Not to mention that some part of the equation was that Rhaegar needed another child to be the third head of the dragon.

But take Brandon's idiocy, which had no chance of any positive outcome, out of the equation and what do you get?

Rickard, probably supported by Robert, make a formal demand/request for the return of Lyanna, suitably couched. Aerys points out he's in full agreement with them and would like to get his own hands on Rhaegar, and if they have any odea where to find the abscondees, please let him know.

Some letters etc change hands, but what can anyone do?

A year or so later Rhaegar shows up with his wife Lyanna, and a baby. there'll be some reparations of course, some lands, titles etc for the Starks and Robert, but the Starks got a better marriage than they dreamed of, a happy daughter, and a grandson who will be one illness or mishap away from direct line from the throne. Robert won't even want Lyanna back - he never really had her or truly loved her in the first place, and now she will be thoroughly 'spoiled' goods in his eyes, not to mention that he'll have moved on anyway.

That's an incredibly idealistic view on what the outcome would have been had Brandon not gone to KL.

Who says Aerys acts rationally with Rickard? Who says Rickard and Robert even believe Aerys when he says he doesn't know where the crown prince is?

If Aerys can't return Lyanna, then the social contract between liege and subject is broken. Rickard, believing his daughter kidnapped, might very well have rebelled, and the Vale, Riverlands and Stormlands would have joined him.

Let's presume that for some reason Rickard chooses not to rebel in such an honour-driven and war-mongering society, and everybody waits it out. What then? Probability suggests that Lyanna still dies in childbirth. So now we have Rhaegar showing up in King's Landing with the corpse of Rickard's daughter and claiming that she gave birth to some random baby in his arms who is legitimate because he married Lyanna without anybody's knowledge. Do you honestly think Rickard would have any reason to believe Rhaegar considering his daughter's dead and there's no proof little baby Jon is a biological Stark? So now we come back to the same situation: Rickard, Robert, Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully rebel, and Doran Martell refuses to help the royalist forces because Rhaegar has publicly humiliated Elia and just bumped Rhaenys down the line of succession.

We're back to exactly where we started.

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That's an incredibly idealistic view on what the outcome would have been had Brandon not gone to KL.

Who says Aerys acts rationally with Rickard? Who says Rickard and Robert even believe Aerys when he says he doesn't know where the crown prince is?

If Aerys can't return Lyanna, then the social contract between liege and subject is broken. Rickard, believing his daughter kidnapped, might very well have rebelled, and the Vale, Riverlands and Stormlands would have joined him.

Let's presume that for some reason Rickard chooses not to rebel in such an honour-driven and war-mongering society, and everybody waits it out. What then? Probability suggests that Lyanna still dies in childbirth. So now we have Rhaegar showing up in King's Landing with the corpse of Rickard's daughter and claiming that she gave birth to some random baby in his arms who is legitimate because he married Lyanna without anybody's knowledge. Do you honestly think Rickard would have any reason to believe Rhaegar considering his daughter's dead and there's no proof little baby Jon is a biological Stark? So now we come back to the same situation: Rickard, Robert, Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully rebel, and Doran Martell refuses to help the royalist forces because Rhaegar has publicly humiliated Elia and just bumped Rhaenys down the line of succession.

We're back to exactly where we started.

We have very different views on society and character.

Established leaders like the Targaryen Dynasty have done much worse with no significant blowback time and time again. Its simply not a 'rebellion' offence, without a lot of other stuff going on. A noble daughter being broken out of a betrothal is not a casus belli, which means that the base rebellion has less moral (and legal) legitimacy and will have much less support in general. Note how even as it was, the rebels still had internal fighting vs Lords who stayed true to the crown, before they could present a united front.

You are also presuming far more than you complain about by assuming the Vale and the Riverlands would have joined. Jon Arryn only started the rebellion because Aerys called for Robert's and Ned's heads, with no reason. Take that out of the equation and would he have joined in something that he had no business with? Hoster Tully only joined a three-House rebellion with major concessions, why would he join a two House rebellion with nowhere near the same level of casus belli?

Rhaegar was too scared to fight in a war he started

My vote for stupidest post of the year!

He didn't start it, and he did fight in it.

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We have very different views on society and character.

Established leaders like the Targaryen Dynasty have done much worse with no significant blowback time and time again. Its simply not a 'rebellion' offence, without a lot of other stuff going on. A noble daughter being broken out of a betrothal is not a casus belli, which means that the base rebellion has less moral (and legal) legitimacy and will have much less support in general. Note how even as it was, the rebels still had internal fighting vs Lords who stayed true to the crown, before they could present a united front.

You are also presuming far more than you complain about by assuming the Vale and the Riverlands would have joined. Jon Arryn only started the rebellion because Aerys called for Robert's and Ned's heads, with no reason. Take that out of the equation and would he have joined in something that he had no business with? Hoster Tully only joined a three-House rebellion with major concessions, why would he join a two House rebellion with nowhere near the same level of casus belli?

Except it's so much more than just a broken betrothal. Rhaegar has disappeared with the daughter of a Lord paramount and the fiancee of a High Lord with impunity, and (in most people's eyes) the King is refusing to return said daughter to her father and or betrothed. Better yet, Rhaegar shows up with the corpse of said noble daughter a year later.

We know rebellion was already brewing before Aerys killed Rickard and Brandon. Their deaths were simply the tipping point. Rhaegar's actions would have had the same basic effect. No one in the North would have stood for the crown prince running off with Lyanna Stark and then killing her (even if that's not what happened, that's what it's going to look like). The rebellion may not have gained the massive traction it does in the original story, but it would have happened. And with both Ned and Robert at the front-lines, there's no way Jon Arryn sits this out. Neither will Hoster Tully, considering what an opportune moment this is for him (like in the actual rebellion).

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This.

Not to mention that some part of the equation was that Rhaegar needed another child to be the third head of the dragon.

But take Brandon's idiocy, which had no chance of any positive outcome, out of the equation and what do you get?

Rickard, probably supported by Robert, make a formal demand/request for the return of Lyanna, suitably couched. Aerys points out he's in full agreement with them and would like to get his own hands on Rhaegar, and if they have any odea where to find the abscondees, please let him know.

Some letters etc change hands, but what can anyone do?

A year or so later Rhaegar shows up with his wife Lyanna, and a baby. there'll be some reparations of course, some lands, titles etc for the Starks and Robert, but the Starks got a better marriage than they dreamed of, a happy daughter, and a grandson who will be one illness or mishap away from direct line from the throne. Robert won't even want Lyanna back - he never really had her or truly loved her in the first place, and now she will be thoroughly 'spoiled' goods in his eyes, not to mention that he'll have moved on anyway.

I've actually often wondered if Rickard's southron ambitions included this as part of the plan. He still has that alliance with the Vale and the Stormlands via fostering, and with the Riverlands via the ongoing betrothal arrangement with Brandon and Cat. And snaps up a connection with the throne with just a bit of kidnapping, diplomacy and waiting. The whole thing about Harrenhal that Aerys was warned about was that the lords were going there to scheme with Rhaegar. Rhaegar was out of sight for a bit, while looking for the Knight of the Laughing Tree. Plenty of others were off seeking the KoTLT at the same time. Aerys was sure this mystery knight was his enemy. He may have been more right than he knew, as the search gave people a reason to be out of sight. When Lyanna disappeared, no one did anything. Not Robert, not Rickard. It wasn't until Brandon went in shouting his insanity that things happened. Even then, it took awhile. Rickard went with a regular sized honor guard, almost as though he felt he had no reason to worry. Shit hit the fan after that and Aerys started calling for everyone's heads.

Something has just always niggled at me about Rhaegar being the one Varys told Aerys to watch out for.

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Except it's so much more than just a broken betrothal. Rhaegar has disappeared with the daughter of a Lord paramount and the fiancee of a High Lord with impunity, and (in most people's eyes) the King is refusing to return said daughter to her father and or betrothed. Better yet, Rhaegar shows up with the corpse of said noble daughter a year later.

We know rebellion was already brewing before Aerys killed Rickard and Brandon. Their deaths were simply the tipping point. Rhaegar's actions would have had the same basic effect. No one in the North would have stood for the crown prince running off with Lyanna Stark and then killing her (even if that's not what happened, that's what it's going to look like). The rebellion may not have gained the massive traction it does in the original story, but it would have happened. And with both Ned and Robert at the front-lines, there's no way Jon Arryn sits this out. Neither will Hoster Tully, considering what an opportune moment this is for him (like in the actual rebellion).

What does "rebellion was already brewing" even mean? Even though this has already been explained to you, the deaths of Rickard and Brandon were NOT the tipping point for the Rebellion. That's simply wrong. It would do you some good to brush up on your fake history before you continued this discussion.

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What does "rebellion was already brewing" even mean? Even though this has already been explained to you, the deaths of Rickard and Brandon were NOT the tipping point for the Rebellion. That's simply wrong. It would do you some good to brush up on your fake history before you continued this discussion.

There were already whispers of rebellion where Aerys' reign was concerned. Rumours that Rhaegar was planning on deposing him, Rickard's supposed "southron ambitions", the defiance of Duskendale.

And how on earth were the deaths of Rickard and Brandon not the tipping point of the unrest that led to the rebellion? I'm fully aware that the rebellion only officially starts when Jon refuses to hand over his beloved boys, but the pointless and barbaric execution of a Lord Paramount and his heir made civil war inevitable.

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We know it's an abandoned tower in the middle of nowhere, no communication and they were there for almost a year. I mean, what the hell were they doing?

It almost seems like they got together just to make babies, because Arthur and Whent stayed there the whole time, just doing nothing. (also, wouldn't be awkward?)

If they wanted to just be together 4eva why didn't they just cross the narrow sea and disappear?

I try to imagine what the hell were they doing in that tower. We know they were getting freaky, but seriously, for almost a year in an abandoned tower? Where did they get supplies? did they have cooks with them, maids or servants?

I think it's very weird, particularly that they were supposedly completely incommunicado that entire time which to me (and this is just my opinion, I know others may disagree) seems very out of character for both of them. I'm really looking forward to seeing how GRRM explains it. I strongly suspect there were a lot of things going on behind the scenes we don't know about yet and that the reality was probably very different from the picture we're able to piece together at this time.

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do we know how long they were at the TOJ? i dont remember anything in the books that suggests that. you can go on the assumption that since Ned found them there at the end of the war then they were there the whole time but they could have been other places. if im wrong please tell me, i really dont remember where it says that they were at the TOJ for so long

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There were already whispers of rebellion where Aerys' reign was concerned. Rumours that Rhaegar was planning on deposing him, Rickard's supposed "southron ambitions", the defiance of Duskendale.

And how on earth were the deaths of Rickard and Brandon not the tipping point of the unrest that led to the rebellion? I'm fully aware that the rebellion only officially starts when Jon refuses to hand over his beloved boys, but the pointless and barbaric execution of a Lord Paramount and his heir made civil war inevitable.

Is this supported anywhere in the text? As far as I know, the situation only became irreversible when Jon Arryn called his banners and formed a rebellion. And that's what counts here. Since what led to that action – aka, the rebellion – was Aerys demanding the heads of Ned and Bob

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Is this supported anywhere in the text? As far as I know, the situation only became irreversible when Jon Arryn called his banners and formed a rebellion. And that's what counts here. Since what led to that action – aka, the rebellion – was Aerys demanding the heads of Ned and Bob.

Considering what Robb did when Ned was imprisoned, it's pretty clear what the North would have done once they got news that Rickard and Brandon were executed for no reason whatsoever. And if Ned goes to war, Robert and Jon aren't going to be far behind.

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Considering what Robb did when Ned was imprisoned, it's pretty clear what the North would have done once they got news that Rickard and Brandon were executed for no reason whatsoever. And if Ned goes to war, Robert and Jon aren't going to be far behind.

Maybe, maybe not. And anyway, I think you're using "tipping point" incorrectly, especially when you're pairing it with "inevitable."

What if Rhaegar had come out of the south, deposed his father and played Ned some really nice songs? Are you really sure Robb marches south if Joffrey is deposed, for example? So you can't really say with any confidence that Brandon and Rickard's deaths were "the tipping point."

Well, depending on how much goalpost shifting you want to do. I noticed you tried shifting from "the rebellion" two posts ago, to "the unrest that led to the rebellion" in the following post. :bs:

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Maybe, maybe not. And anyway, I think you're using "tipping point" incorrectly, especially when you're pairing it with "inevitable."

What if Rhaegar had come out of the south, deposed his father and played Ned some really nice songs? Are you really sure Robb marches south if Joffrey is deposed, for example? So you can't really say with any confidence that Brandon and Rickard's deaths were "the tipping point."

Well, depending on how much goalpost shifting you want to do. I noticed you tried shifting from "the rebellion" two posts ago, to "the unrest that led to the rebellion" in the following post. :bs:

Read better then. I never said it was the tipping point of the rebellion. Merely the tipping point. Here, I'll eve quote it for you:

We know rebellion was already brewing before Aerys killed Rickard and Brandon. Their deaths were simply the tipping point.

Everything I said before "tipping point" should have made it perfectly clear what I was talking about. You're the one who classified it as "tipping point of the rebellion" in your haste to argue with me.

Keep at it though. I'm sure your endearing attitude will pay off somewhere down the line.

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