Robb Stark's war was not a lost cause.....

[Sir Tan Lee]

I wouldn't be so sure. After all if we assume no RW, we should assume Tywin wouldn't sit around waiting. Right after the Blackwater, only Robb was a serious threat... so it'd be logical to send the combined army there. Between that and his death would be quite a bit of time I think (not sure on the timeline, I'll admit). With Tyrell's army on a major campaign, it's not as easy to withdraw either.

That is assuming Tywin would still die. Every change has major consequences. For instance, Sansa (and through her, Tyrion) would think quite differently about matters. Jaime would be a prisoner again (assuming Bolton doesn't leave Robb). Chess games completely change if you alter one move - and especially these minor subplots are difficult to predict.

Consider for instance Varys. Would he want Tywin dead while Robb was still around? Such things are far from certain...

I think Tywin would have stayed for the wedding so him and Mace can be 100% certain on their alliance. There is a good deal of evidence that suggest Tywin was already poisoned before Tyrion killed him. So it wouldn't matter if Jaime couldn't free Tyrion. Tywin would have still died a few days later.

With this alternate timeline Tyrion would probably be executed, Jaime couldn't lead the Lannister army because hes in captivity so Cercei would have to rely on some Lannister bannerman to lead it, no one tells Aegon to go to westeros and a host of other things. Mace would still have to deal with Euron so Robb would only have to deal with a few Ironmen, Stannis's severely weakened army and the disorganized Lannister forces. It would be easier for Robb at first but then when Aegon + Dany come around and the Others; every one's done for.

[I S**t Gold]

It was Rodrick who made the mistake of taking all the fighting men away from Winterfell, which allowed Theon to take it, not Robb.

I beg your pardon. You're quite right.

[Sansa_Stark]

If only Catelyn stayed at WF. She would let all the North burn, but would keep soldiers at WF. Robb would not have needed Jeyne for comfort, and the RW would not have happened.

[Sullen]

The Tyrells didn't murder Joffrey. The queen of Thorns and LF did.

There can be no chance of stability while Joffrey is in power. You think Olenna would allow her precious granddaughter to be totally in the power of Joff?

Robb wreaking havoc in the west or not, Joff had to go.

Joff is not going until the situation in the North is remedied.

The sudden change of power and the internal strife created by Joffrey's demise is too much of a gamble to take while Robb is not yet pacified.

Joff was not an immediate danger to Marge, the North was.

[Riptide]

I think the op is mostly right, but I strongly disagree that Walder would have exepted Robb's offer. It is far more likely he would have joined with Tywin, probably in return for Emmon getting Riverrun. This would cut off the easy rout to Moat Cailin.

[Tywin Manderly]

That's not true. Robb did leave a garrison at Winterfell, a pretty substantial one actually. Remember in CoK, Rodrick was able to raise 2,000 men from Winterfell to fight the Ironborn at Torrhens Square.

It was Rodrick who made the mistake of taking all the fighting men away from Winterfell, which allowed Theon to take it, not Robb.

Leaving the royal seat, where also two of the royal heirs are living, unprotected would even in peace time be an incredibly stupid and irresponsible decision, let alone in war time.

[TheWizard]

I think the op is mostly right, but I strongly disagree that Walder would have exepted Robb's offer. It is far more likely he would have joined with Tywin, probably in return for Emmon getting Riverrun. This would cut off the easy rout to Moat Cailin.

In this scenario Robb would of sat at RR for a few months longer before departing North. The PW is not too long time wise after the RW. if Tywin is dead would Walder still be brave enough to betray Robb?

[TheWizard]

Leaving the royal seat, where also two of the royal heirs are living, unprotected would even in peace time be an incredibly stupid and irresponsible decision, let alone in war time.

Exactly! everyone always says Robb shouldn't of done this or that but that by far is the biggest blunder on the stark side of things. Rodrik Cassel oh what a dumb man you were.

[Sir Tan Lee]

For me the reason it was doomed to failure was that Robb was just a boy with a big massive dire wolf. At that age he's going to make the wrong move somewhere when faced with an opponent like Tywin Lannister. If he hadn't made those mistakes he'd have made others. I think people lose sight of how young Robb was sometimes.

The experience is crucial. The Umbers left their green boys and grizzled veterans. Roose had a garrison in the Dreadfort that Ramsey could call upon. Not green boys either. It would have made a huge difference if Robb had left a garrison in Winterfell, he took every fighting man with him.

Losing the Frey's, again that's youth, inexperience. A wiser man might have kept his word. The Freys don't turn until it's in their interests to turn.

He did a very good impression of a grown up, and he fought bravely, but Robb was too young to carry the burden. It's kind of tragic in a way.

Alexander the Great started his conquest when he was only 16, that's about the same age as Robb. The fact that he was young wasn't a mistake waiting to happen, its just how things worked out. He should have established a clear fail safe in the beginning though. Instead he only thought about his heir when it was to late.

[Tywin Manderly]

Alexander the Great started his conquest when he was only 16, that's about the same age as Robb. The fact that he was young wasn't a mistake waiting to happen, its just how things worked out. He should have established a clear fail safe in the beginning though. Instead he only thought about his heir when it was to late.

In the beginning Robb had Bran and Rickon as his heirs who were supposed to be safe since they were far away from the fighting in one of the strongest castles of Westeros guarded a by strong garrison. So at the time, no worries there.

[Tywin Manderly]

Rodrik Cassel oh what a dumb man you were.

Indeed he is. Look, for example, how he handled the case of Lady Hornwood, allowing her to return home without beefing up her escort. Rven Bran recognized that she needed a strong escort since was a widow holding rich lands which many in the North were eyeing.

[Arya kiddin']

Robb Stark might not've lost the war, if Catelyn had succeeded Ned as regent, until Robb comes of age. I made a thread on it actually, though the discussions soon shifted on Catelyn's character.

[KingofSothoryos]

I wouldn't be so sure. After all if we assume no RW, we should assume Tywin wouldn't sit around waiting. Right after the Blackwater, only Robb was a serious threat... so it'd be logical to send the combined army there. Between that and his death would be quite a bit of time I think (not sure on the timeline, I'll admit). With Tyrell's army on a major campaign, it's not as easy to withdraw either.

That is assuming Tywin would still die. Every change has major consequences. For instance, Sansa (and through her, Tyrion) would think quite differently about matters. Jaime would be a prisoner again (assuming Bolton doesn't leave Robb). Chess games completely change if you alter one move - and especially these minor subplots are difficult to predict.

Consider for instance Varys. Would he want Tywin dead while Robb was still around? Such things are far from certain...

@KingofSothoryos: Besieging one of the major strongholds in Westeros wouldn't be an easy task, and Robb's force was primarily for quick strikes, as far as I understand it - not for sieges. It'd go utterly counter to his plan (drawing Tywin in and doing highly mobile warfare), instead likely locking him up in Casterly Rock to defend the prize (or worse, get crushed in the back by Tywin during the siege). He did enough for Tywin to take the bait, but got "unlucky" on the next move.

Going North wasn't a decision of preference imo. I read it as a withdrawal - he couldn't win in the south, so he went north to take care of matters in the next campaign "year" and raise any armies that had stayed at home.

I think after the Battle of the Blackwater, Robb had no choice but to continue his campagin in the West whether it meant a seige of Casterly Rock or Lannisport and letting the North wait until the war had settled. That would have forced Tywin to have to move to take back his seat in strength which would have corrected Edmure's mistake at the Battle of the Fords and made his strongest enemy fall in the same boat as him, having lost his seat. At the very least, this would have continued to show strength and made the Lannisters look weak and probably would have kept the Boltons in line. Robb should have left Edmure to deal with Walder Frey as his liege lord to ensure his loyalty. Edmure could round up some of the other Riverlords and forced the Freys to back Robb. The Twins would be cut off from KL and isolated if Roose stays loyal. Im sure Black Walder would jump at a chance to kill his great grandfather, if it meant skipping ahead in the line of succession to end a seige.

Robb's continued strength may even have changed LF's plan, where he would kill Joffrey, blame Tyrion and return Sansa to Robb, allying the Vale to the North and Riverlands as well as a secret alliance with the Tyrells through LF who gets to be Lord of the Vale through Lysa and keeps Harrenhal (not as overlord). My question is would LF marry Lysa while Catelyn lives, even for the Vale?

Bringing Dorne into the fold would be easy since it would be the strength of 5 of the Great Houses versus 1 and they would jump at a chance to give Tywin his comeuppance. When you realize that LF and the Tyrells are plotting against the Lannisters and their hold on the Iron Throne is based on a well known abomination of a lie, its a surprise that people didn't see how tenuous the Lannisters' hold on power was for them to be doing all their infighting. It is well known that no one has love for any of the Lannisters and all the Great Lords all must be eager to rid the 7 Kingdoms of man as dangerous as Tywin Lannister. So they would jump at a chance to jump ship, especially with the incest as an honorable reason. The question I have is would Robb want the Iron Throne or would he let everyone be independent if they wanted?

I think if Robb had continued to win battles and stayed on the offensive, he would have shown the strength that Tywin showed after winning the Battle of the Blackwater, which gave the Boltons and Freys enough confidence to betray him. If he had continued to bloody the Lannisters in the Westerlands, I think Tywin's allies would have abandoned him for Robb, since they knew he wasn't as cruel or as ambitious as Tywin. Simply besieging Casterly Rock or Lannisport (remember Robb smashed the last ragtag Westermen host assembled by Steffron Lannister at Oxcross), could have led to Robb to the Iron Throne and Tywin and all the Lannisters dead.

[TheWizard]

Robb Stark might not've lost the war, if Catelyn had succeeded Ned as regent, until Robb comes of age. I made a thread on it actually, though the discussions soon shifted on Catelyn's character.

http://asoiaf.wester...-succeeded-ned/

Interesting about to give it a read now

[Sansa_Stark]

I agree with Mrunderhill, Catelyn would have facked things up

[David Selig]

You are missing something.

The Tyrells wouldn't join forces with the Lannisters because of Euron, Aegon and Margaery's trial. This only leaves Jaime to lead a Lannister army against the Riverlands and hes a decent commander at best. Even with Robb distracted by Stannis. The blackfish could hold off against Jaime for a long time.

Even Cersei isn't dumb enough to move against Margaery while the war was still going on. And the Tyrells could deal with the Ironborn with only a fraction of their ground forces.

[Arya kiddin']

Interesting about to give it a read now

Do so. :D

[Barty]

Another big point people are missing is that the Tyrells dont mind the North being free. Mace says so himself when Balon's letter reaches KL. The Riverlands might be a point of contention but nothing that couldn't be dealt with peacefully.

I think the Tyrells would still kill Joffrey(the plan was in motion long before Robb was killed) and Tywin still dies(whether from poisoning or by Tyrion). However the Tyrells make a point of not marching anywhere in strength until Tommen is married to Margaery. Once Tywin is dead and Tommen married to Margaery, The Tyrells might march on Robb, but Mace has made it clear that he does not mind the North seceding. If he gives Robb good terms(like freedom for the North and royal pardons for all the riverlords and some compensation in gold) - Robb would likely agree(since Joffrey and Tywin are dead, the war of vengeance is over). I see even the riverlords liking this deal.

[Barty]

Joff is not going until the situation in the North is remedied.

The sudden change of power and the internal strife created by Joffrey's demise is too much of a gamble to take while Robb is not yet pacified.

Joff was not an immediate danger to Marge, the North was.

You are overlooking the fact that the plan to kill Joff was in motion long before Robb was dead. Sansa gets her hairnet from Dontos in ACoK. The Tyrells dont care about Robb - they care about their daughter and do not want her to marry a sadistic psychopath. Mace has already said he is fine with the North being free - so why should he feel that Robb is a threat??

[Barty]

Robb Stark might not've lost the war, if Catelyn had succeeded Ned as regent, until Robb comes of age. I made a thread on it actually, though the discussions soon shifted on Catelyn's character.

http://asoiaf.wester...-succeeded-ned/

I still dont understand what you mean when you say IF Catelyn had succeeded Ned as regent. She DID. Ned left her in charge - she only f*cked things up. And when she regained her mind she ran off to KL and in her return journey managed to start a war.