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Is Petyr Baelish the Third Lie Dany has to Slay?


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#1 Not Dead Just Broken

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 08:06 PM

The third lie which Dany is supposed to slay according to the undying is as follows:

"From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire."

Most of the interpretations I've read have this relating to Dragonstone, Aegon, Melisandre or Jon Connington. However, if you accept that the first lie is about Stannis and the second lie is about Aegon I find it surprising that the third lie would relate to either Stannis or Aegon. It should be someone else. I say that the best fit is the renowned liar Petyr Baelish. But how on earth does Littelfinger fit? Well, let's go through this. This interpretation is very symbolic but bare with me. Remember that the first two prophecies rely heavily on symbolism as well. Stannis is not actually without a shadow, it's just symbolic of the shadow baby that killed Renly. There may not actually be a cloth dragon associated with Aegon, but it symbolizes his backing by Varys the former mummer. Having prefaced it thusly, let's go through this prophecy and see why I think LF fits the bill.

"From a smoking tower..."

Littlefinger makes a name for himself at Gulltown. He manages the customs there and makes a lot of money. He also becomes good friends with the Lords of Gulltown, the Graftons. The Graftons have for their sigil a burning tower. A burning tower will produce smoke and be a "smoking tower." Petyr Baelish is, professionally, from Gulltown and House Grafton, he is from "a smoking tower."

"... a great stone beast took wing..."

Supporters of Jon Connington for this prophecy argue that because Dany describes the cloth dragon as a dragon, the stone beast is likely not a dragon. The Connington proponents say it is a Griffin. I say it is the Titan of Braavos. Or at least his head. The old sigil of House Baelish that Petyr's grandfather adopted was the stone head of the Titan on a green field honouring his Braavosi father. The Titan might not seem like an obvious choice for a beast but prophecy can be tricky. The took wing part is, if you're following the theory, a reference to Petyr choosing his own sigil, the mockingbird. So the Titan's head transforms into a mockingbird or grows the wings of a mockingbird and flies. If this is what Dany sees that maybe described quite aptly as a beast.

"... breathing shadow fire."

Other theories that I've read have related shadow fire to House Blackfyre which is certainly a possibility. If you take the theory that the prophecy is describing a person (as the other two prophecies do), than breathing shadow fire is whispering or talking about shadow fire. Think of "don't breathe a word of this" as an example of the interpretation of breathing as talking. It may be that Petyr will accuse Aegon of being a Blackfyre when in fact he isn't. Thus, he would be breathing shadow fire.

I personally think that the shadow fire is symbolic of a false appearance which creates conflict. We have seen LF use lies and deception in order to inflame passion. He makes things appear one way (a shadow) and the result is conflict (fire). So the lie he had Lysa tell Catelyn about the death of Jon Arryn has the shadow of a murder and it sets the Starks and Lannisters at each others' throats (fire). He fans the flames by lying about the bet with Tyrion about the knife. Similarly, when he frames Tyrion for Joff's murder (shadow), he drives a wedge in House Lannister which results in Tyrion being sentenced to death and eventually Tywin being killed (fire). I think you can see this metaphorical shadow fire fitting in with LF's M.O. of causing trouble by giving people the impression of something happening when it didn't actually happen.

In sum, Littlefinger gets his start in Gulltown and House Grafton and is thus "from a smoking tower." His grandfather's great stone head becomes his own mockingbird and thus "a great stone beast took wing." Finally, LF uses the appearance of things to create conflict by spreading rumor thus "breathing shadow fire." Thus, Dany will somehow uncover LIttlefinger's lies and slay the third lie.

Crackpot or plausible? What do you think?

#2 Gneisenau

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 08:13 PM

Yeah it could be plausible.

#3 Jon of the Dead

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 08:16 PM

Yeah, I like it. It's certainly plausible and a good option that it's not Melisandre or JonCon. And it certainly interesting considering lots of people think Dany will land in the Vale...

#4 BranBrokeLegs

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 08:16 PM

Plausible. It's a bit of a stretch, but better than any of the other theories that I've heard.

#5 Jrogo

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 08:18 PM

Whoa. I really like this theory! I don't think I would have made those connections.

I think it's very plausible

#6 Lost Melnibonean

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 08:37 PM

I like it too. Good work. I think the breathing shadow fire part is a bit thin though and I think the savage giant will be slayed by Sansa.

#7 Arya kiddin'

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Posted 25 September 2013 - 12:18 AM

However, if you accept that the first lie is about Stannis and the second lie is about Aegon I find it surprising that the third lie would relate to either Stannis or Aegon.


This especially is a great catch imo, and the rest of the explanation seems really plausible as well. Nice work, ser. /smile.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':)' />

#8 Ibbison from Ibben

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Posted 25 September 2013 - 05:57 AM

I've always considered LF a possibility for this due to the Grafton sigil and his reputation as a liar, but I couldn't make a connection to "shadow fire". Nice job.

The prophesy is about slaying a lie, not a liar. What lie of LF's will Dany slay? (She will slay Stannis' lie about being AAR, and Young Griff's lie about being Aegon VI.)

#9 Arya kiddin'

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Posted 25 September 2013 - 06:02 AM

Shadow fire can be interpreted as some sort of false alarm as well, but then there won't be much point of saying it twice. It has to be more specific than that I think, as slayer of lies has been said. Food for thought. /idea.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':idea:' />

#10 jet199

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Posted 25 September 2013 - 06:39 AM

I've always considered LF a possibility for this due to the Grafton sigil and his reputation as a liar, but I couldn't make a connection to "shadow fire". Nice job.

The prophesy is about slaying a lie, not a liar. What lie of LF's will Dany slay? (She will slay Stannis' lie about being AAR, and Young Griff's lie about being Aegon VI.)

Looking at it logically if Stannis is shown as AAR and the lie comes from him not being AAR and Aegon is shown as a dragon but he is a Blackfyre or Targ-looking bastard then if LF is shown as a great beast breathing shadow fire then his appearance as such must be the lie.
So either LF is actually working for the forces of good (hmm) or LF's goals and alliances are quite different to what we have seen so far (which is to be expected with him).
If Stannis being shown without a shadow and Aegon's dragon being made of cloth show their is something wrong with their outside appearance then I guess the shadow fire part of the image hints at the dishonesty. (Hopefully LF is not a secret R'hllorian)

#11 Mikkel

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Posted 25 September 2013 - 06:48 AM

GRRM better not pull a Snape re: Littlefinger, or I'll be decidedly unhappy.

#12 TepidHands

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Posted 25 September 2013 - 07:21 AM

LF is also the lord of Harrenhal, which had plenty of smoking towers.

#13 Not Dead Just Broken

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 10:10 PM

LF is also the lord of Harrenhal, which had plenty of smoking towers.

Yeah, I considered that too.  The only problem is that I don't see LF ever setting foot at Harrenhall.  He seems to uncharacteristically believe in the curse.  Thus, I have trouble arguing that he's "from" Harrenhall.



#14 Lady Lea

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 10:16 PM

That's really interesting, OP! Good job.



#15 ♛ Queen Alysanne ♛

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 10:44 PM

This is a nice theory, it makes sense aswell.



#16 ♛ Queen Alysanne ♛

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 11:07 PM

Just too add, as in ASOIAF animals represent humans and their actions, LF is a mockingbird and they deceive other birds by imitating them I think this ties into him being a lie, since hes lied the whole series.



#17 RandomStark

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Posted 29 September 2013 - 12:14 AM

I love the 'took wing' part but it still feels like a bit of a reach I'm afraid.

 

Personally I think the Hightowers are involved (the mad 'witch' one?). I agree with Aegon and Stannis for the other parts and agree with your reasoning for the third not being either of them repeated again.



#18 mrlukeduke

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Posted 09 December 2013 - 07:51 AM

Just to add to the Vale connection... (sorry if some of this has already been mentioned):

 

Smoking tower

As discussed, nothing to add.

 

Stone beast

Sansa: wolf by birth, fish mother, lion by marriage to Tyrion. A beastly mix. She's a stone beast because the false stone of Vale bastardy is covering up her true identity, hence stone beast. House Baelish as discussed has multiple connections to the Titan of Braavos (stone), as well as birds (e.g. mocking birds). House Baelish's sigil: 'a grey stone head with fiery eyes'. Sansa's dire wolf also makes her a beastling like Jon's descriptions at the wall.

 

Took wing

Obviously, the Vale's sigil itself: an eagle, where Sansa resides and learns to play the game. Take wing metaphorically means to be under someone's tutelage or guardianship (Petyr's), as in, took her under my wing. Sansa is often described as a little bird and asked to sing songs. She was caretaker of Sweetrobin (a robin is a bird) and wed to the Young Falcon by Petyr as part of a plan to reclaim Winterfell.

 

'Take wing' can also mean to spread out or finally "blossom" – this is where her character arch seems to be headed. She's learning to play the game, not be played by it. The Vale itself is also about to metaphorically take wing and join in the great war for dawn at last.

 

Shadow fire

Possibly Blackfyre yes, but also reference to a 'shadow war' (like the Harpy plays against Danaerys). Or, supporting fire but playing a different game in the shadows. Even if (f)Aegon ain't a Blackfyre, he's still claiming to be fire (Targaryen). I'm not sure what the breathing refers to exactly though.


Edited by mrlukeduke, 09 December 2013 - 07:58 AM.