Great Northern Conspiracy Problem

[Ser Creighton]

You know the only problem I really have with the Theory is that supposedly this has been getting planned since Robb died. And while they work to retrieve Rick nobody has tried to make contact with Jon.

The reply I got for the question of why in over a year nobody has contacted Jon the answer was they are going to take his Kingdom first for him and then hand it to him as a gift.

By the way while they were not defending there King he got stabbed 3 times.

I have also been told they didn't have time to get to Jon. The Banker from the Iron Bank, got to Jon, and then road south in a snow storm and got to Stannis. Yet Jon, no lets keep it a secret from him, will tell everyone but the King that he is the King and not to tell anyone else, but will do a massive secret organization.

If the idea was to kill Ram, they had plenty of opportunity. Manderly alone could of brought a hell of a lot more men with him to Winterfell walked right in the front gates with all the other lords and killed him. Nobody told the Hill tribes either, cause they went with Stannis.

If there is a plan its Mormont and Reed and maybe Mallister. But I don't think anyone else knows about this plan. The most important person who doesn't know is Jon and considering he is the plan II think someone would of told him.

[falcotron]

You know the only problem I really have with the Theory is that supposedly this has been getting planned since Robb died. And while they work to retrieve Rick nobody has tried to make contact with Jon.

Are you sure that's your only problem with it? Because, if so, I think you're still a proponent of the core theory, just not the Jon-as-KitN variant of it.

The core GNC theory basically says that all the plots we know for a fact various Northmen are engaged in (ousting Bolton; getting revenge on the Boltons, Freys, and Lannisters; rescuing Rickon; getting a Stark in Winterfell; etc.) are part of an overarching plot to restore an independent Kingdom of the North, which they're all working toward together.

While some proponents of the theory believe that Jon as KitN is central to the whole conspiracy, others have suggested that they'd consider it a victory to put Rickon on the throne; Jon might be better just because he's not a child, but he's not key to anything. Some of the claimed clues to the conspiracies don't work for the Jonless version (Alys going to the wall doesn't add anything); others work even better that way (Manderly asking Davos to get Rickon becomes obvious, instead of just likely).

It sounds to me like you don't buy the Jon-less version either. If that's the case, it's misleading to say that the Jon part is the only problem you have with it. If you want to challenge the theory, challenge it and give the defenders the chance to convince you with their arguments.

For what it's worth, I personally _don't_ buy the GNC. I think there's not one unified conspiracy, but rather a general feeling among the Northern Lords that many of them are acting on independently and in small groups. I think most of them would be fine being part of the 7K as long as they get to choose their own Warden and the King isn't a Lannister--which means most of the ones who appear to be working for Stannis actually are. And most of the evidence of collusion and conspiracy works just as well as "these two lords both want to get rid of Bolton." But I think it's an interesting idea nonetheless.

[sertravisredbeard]

I think one answer to the issue of why they haven't told him yet would be that if they went public there would be more enemies than can be handled at the moment. Jon has allied with Stannis and so has some of the North, but if everyone knew that Jon was going to be declared king, the plotters would have Stannis and Roose to deal with at the same time. Some of the northern leadership has been sent to Jon, but no one has been too obvious about their intentions.

Manderly knows that to take out the Boltons, he'll have to bleed off a large host of Freys, and possibly Dustins and Ryswell's first. During Theon's Winterfell chapters, some readers have interpreted the goings on as Manderly scoping out the rest of the Northern lords, gathering information, and sharing other information with the lords through the Locke-Stout-Dustin information pipeline. Just coming through the gates and starting a fight would not be as effective, IMO. The Theon spoiler chapter reveals that part of this plan has worked. Dead Freys are piling up, and the higher that pile gets the closer Roose knows he is to his own end.

The hill tribes also might have gone with Stannis because Jon sent Stannis himself. So, in their minds they're already helping Starks.

Any of these machinations might have meant the whole plan being blown so I think they haven't told Jon yet because he doesn't really need to know yet. And no one could have predicted the Julius Caesar events at the wall.

[falcotron]

Manderly knows that to take out the Boltons… The Theon spoiler chapter reveals that part of this plan has worked. Dead Freys are piling up, and the higher that pile gets the closer Roose knows he is to his own end.

But that's all part of the indisputably-true SNC, and therefore not evidence for the GNC at all.

The hill tribes also might have gone with Stannis because Jon sent Stannis himself. So, in their minds they're already helping Starks.

Also true with or without the GNC. Stannis wants to eliminate the Boltons, put someone at least Stark-friendly (he doesn't know there's an accessible Stark) in Winterfell, and possibly even destroy the Lannisters. And they know Jon trusts them. So, they have every reason to help him do it.

That's _my_ problem with the GNC: People keep taking evidence for the SNC as evidence for the GNC, in cases where the GNC makes no difference. There is definitely _some_ evidence for the GNC (e.g., Manderly's apparently over-careful wording with Davos, which doesn't seem to be necessary if it's just Manderly trying to get Rickon back so Stannis can make him Warden). But inflating it with irrelevant evidence that works just as well for the conspiracy we already know is true doesn't help the case for the further conspiracy, it just clouds it.

I think I may sidetracking this thread into a general GNC thread; if so, I apologize, and feel free to ignore me and get back to the original topic.

[Ludd]

There one other quite crazy notion that MUST be considered. Manderley is Jon's Grandad. I say this because of the NAME of the girl Ned mentioned Wylla - a Manderley name. What if on the way home to call his banners, the fisherman's daughter was in fact a Manderley girl. Either that or the Wylla that PRETENDED to be Jon's mother is in fact a Manderley, now settled at Starfall. Such a girl might well have been a friend of Lyanna's and traveled with her even while kidnapped. or perhaps Wylla the wet nurse was a Manderley bastard girl, provided for by becoming Lyanna's handmaiden - a common enough path for a bastard girl, especially if her mother was a serving girl.

Wylla the friend or serving girl may well have been at Harrenhall, which sounds as if it was rather short of a chaperone or five. A pregnant Wylla Manderly may well have preferred to stay with Lyanna and Rhaegar to hide the birth of a child. Perhaps Wylla the wet nurse is actually bold Wylla's mother. Eiter way I think it is possible Manderly knows who Jon really is.

[sertravisredbeard]

Does SNC stand of Stannis Northern Conspiracy? It makes sense but I'm not sure if I've seen the term before. Either way I don't think there is one all-encompassing, overarching plan. It seems like most of the leaders in the North are acting towards the goal of some sort of Stark-led North. Whether or not they want to include Stannis is up for debate. I have no clue who each individual will want to rule, but there are a lot of people working towards the same goals, even without knowing what the others are doing.

Manderly being Jon's grandfather is a pretty crazy idea though.

[falcotron]

There one other quite crazy notion that MUST be considered. Manderley is Jon's Grandad. I say this because of the NAME of the girl Ned mentioned Wylla - a Manderley name.

To be clear, you're basing this on the theory that names starting with "Wy" are specific to the Manderly family, in the way that names starting with "Ty" are to the Lannisters, right?

So what about Wyman Webber, Wyl Waynwood and the various commoners named Wyl all over the 7K, Wynafrei Whent, Ser Wynton Stout, …? Most names are not unique to a specific house.

[Ludd]

Fal

Yep. The Wy in the name suggests (but not proves) a Manderly link for Wylla. Where we DO see shared names there is often an implied family link ie the Rodrik, Rickard and Roose of the Ryswells and Lyanna Mormant

I am just raising it as an idea that should not be ignored - amongst a hundred other possibilities.

I doubt it is accidental that Blackfish is named for Bloodraven

[falcotron]

Does SNC stand of Stannis Northern Conspiracy?

I was using it to stand for Small Northern Conspiracy. A name I thought I'd used on this thread, but it may have been elsewhere, in which case… sorry for the confusion.

Your position is essentially what I'm talking about:

… I don't think there is one all-encompassing, overarching plan. It seems like most of the leaders in the North are acting towards the goal of some sort of Stark-led North. Whether or not they want to include Stannis is up for debate. I have no clue who each individual will want to rule, but there are a lot of people working towards the same goals, even without knowing what the others are doing.

It's indisputable fact that:

• Many Northern Lords are working toward getting a Stark (or at least someone of their choosing, if no Stark can be found) in Winterfell leading them.
• At least one knows about Rickon and wants him rescued.
• Most want revenge on the Boltons, Freys, Lannisters, and Greyjoys.
• Some of them refuse to accept the Lannister Kings.
• Some of them are assisting Stannis; others are working against Bolton from inside his camp; some may be plotting independently.
• At least some houses are in communication with each other (e.g., Manderly seems to be sending whispers to other houses inside Bolton's camp).

And this is all clearly illegal conspiracy against the (Lannister) Crown. It's just not the Great Northern Conspiracy. What's the GNC adds is:

• They are all working together, along with their allies from the Riverlands.
• Their plans have been essentially agreed upon since the Red Wedding.
• They will accept nothing other than an independent kingdom (possibly including the Riverlands, and maybe even the Vale and/or Iron Islands).
• The ones who appear to be in Stannis's camp are no more on his side than the ones infiltrating Bolton's camp; he's useful to help destroy the Ironborn and the Boltons, but after that, he has to accept the KitN or get out.
• They specifically want Jon (in the "Jon" version) or a Stark (in the "Jonless" version) as the KitN.

[falcotron]

Fal

Yep. The Wy in the name suggests (but not proves) a Manderly link for Wylla. Where we DO see shared names there is often an implied family link ie the Rodrik, Rickard and Roose of the Ryswells and Lyanna Mormant

I don't think that's true. Some names are peculiarly Dornish, Northern, or foreign (most obviously the Targs), and a few names become specifically associated with a single house. But in general, anything that looks like a misspelled Anglo-Saxon name is scattered all over the continent.

Surely there's no link between Wyl the commoner guard in Winterfell, Wyl the servant in Dorne, Wyl the peasant victim in the Riverlands, and Wyl Waynwood of the Vale? Or the dozens of Roberts? Or all the Patreks, Leos, Jaspers, Alys/Elyses, etc. that show up from the Arbor to Winterfell, from the days of the Conquest to the present?

[IRON BANK]

You know the only problem I really have with the Theory is that supposedly this has been getting planned since Robb died. And while they work to retrieve Rick nobody has tried to make contact with Jon.

The reply I got for the question of why in over a year nobody has contacted Jon the answer was they are going to take his Kingdom first for him and then hand it to him as a gift.

By the way while they were not defending there King he got stabbed 3 times.

I have also been told they didn't have time to get to Jon. The Banker from the Iron Bank, got to Jon, and then road south in a snow storm and got to Stannis. Yet Jon, no lets keep it a secret from him, will tell everyone but the King that he is the King and not to tell anyone else, but will do a massive secret organization.

If the idea was to kill Ram, they had plenty of opportunity. Manderly alone could of brought a hell of a lot more men with him to Winterfell walked right in the front gates with all the other lords and killed him. Nobody told the Hill tribes either, cause they went with Stannis.

If there is a plan its Mormont and Reed and maybe Mallister. But I don't think anyone else knows about this plan. The most important person who doesn't know is Jon and considering he is the plan II think someone would of told him.

I always felt that the plan was to tell Jon however he was not at the wall. Then when he gets back Stannis shows up. why not have stannis do you dirty work for you. then reveal your plans and tell Stannis if he wants any more aid this is how it will have to play out.

[Ludd]

Fal

Actually there are NOT many names used twice or more times. A few Patreks, Jons and Jeynes but really not too many repeat names. The Freys deliberately name kids to curry favour with rulers but other than that there are not a lot of repeat names, except when there is a new generation