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Roose bolton - How can he survive?


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#1 Zylathas

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 09:32 AM

I actually posted this first in an other thread but I decided it would be a more interesting subject to talk about in it's own thread.

 

I was thinking today, with the battle of winterfell at the end of adwd/begin of twow roose is in a very dire position. Assuming the pink letter is fake he has some options still left to him. Like winning the battle, fleeing (which is very unroose) or what I was thinking of earlier today. Trying to go over to Stannis' side making the necessary "sacrifices". The main scheme of Roose is having power and making sure his family name survives. Although he does not want a "child lord" as it's the bane of every house. I think that to survive he will have to let the last go.

 

The reason for it is as follows :

 

Many northeners hate Ramsay and hate Roose because they think he killed Robb. I think Roose actually has more of a long term plan once Stannis besieges Winterfell. I think chances are Roose might parley with Stannis first before a true battle would occur. It might even be that roose would traverse the ice alone to speak to Stannis. (Maybe even bringing him some sort of sign of goodwill)

 

Keep in mind, Robb was Stannis' enemy. Roose actually "helped" Stannis by killing Robb he might actually try that to get atleast some form of amnesty. I think Roose might try to convince Stannis that he killed Robb for the "good of the realm" because he would have destroyed the seven kingdoms. He might even be "reaccepted" by other northern lords if Roose brings Ramsay to Stannis and return all northern captives from the red wedding. He might also try to convince Stannis even more to bring the bolton men into Stannis army (of which there is still a considerable force), converting to the red god and promising retirement (to the wall??) once the war is done and his son by fat walda frey can get the Dreadfort. Stannis might even be "forced" to accept Roose's offer when the wall has fallen. No one will care then about what Roose has done, that's for after the war and Stannis has often said it in the books. Every lord will get what's coming for him, but if there is need for someone now justice can be done later. (like he plans on doing with various dragonstone lords that desserted him)

 

I think that is Roose Bolton's plan. Try to switch sides, convince Stannis that killing Robb was the best thing he could have done for the northern situation. That he was hoping that by killing Robb Stark the North would atleast have survived the upcoming winter and not lose their lands to the ironborn (which he has actually prevented, he reconquered the north). I think he will try to make Robb's death a "noble cause" but still denounce house Frey for the red wedding itself of which he was obviously against. He was merely scheming against Robb Stark when he heard that they were going to butcher him at the red wedding. By then it was too late to stop. Or something amongst those lines as a "reason" for doing it at that point.

 

Ofcourse Roose Bolton wouldn't be Roose Bolton if he wouldn't backstab Stannis later, but that is even the longer term plan. Why would Stannis accept this? Maybe because the wall fell, maybe because killing Robb was indeed a huge boon for Stannis. (he has his army now after all)

 

To add something. I still think that Roose Bolton might still have some small redemption in this story and I think this is the best point at which he could be redempted.

 

For the possible gnc believers, this could also be a possible wedge between the northern lords and stannis that could lead to another king in the north although I wonder if the gnc is true.

 

Tl;dr : Roose will betray Ramsay, will try to join Stannis' cause and the castle will be attacked from the inside by bolton men.



#2 The Doctor's Consort

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 09:41 AM

I don't think that he can survive. Winter is coming for him and Robb Stark sends his regards.


Edited by Jon's Queen Consort, 30 September 2013 - 09:47 AM.


#3 Dead Wolf

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 09:47 AM

Roose is a dead man walking. The curse of Harrenhal will get him in the end



#4 Blue Rose Prince

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 10:24 AM

Keep in mind, Robb was Stannis' enemy. Roose actually "helped" Stannis by killing Robb he might actually try that to get atleast some form of amnesty.

 

Theon actually "helped" Stannis by sacking Winterfell and "killing" Bran and Rickon, which greatly weakened Robb's position, yet Stannis is dead-set on executing him to appease the northerners. How could Roose Bolton be any different? If killing the heirs and burning the castle gets you condemned, what do you think killing the King in the North gets you?

 

edit: spelling.


Edited by Blue Rose Prince, 30 September 2013 - 10:28 AM.


#5 Zylathas

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 11:29 AM

 

Theon actually "helped" Stannis by sacking Winterfell and "killing" Bran and Rickon, which greatly weakened Robb's position, yet Stannis is dead-set on executing him to appease the northerners. How could Roose Bolton be any different? If killing the heirs and burning the castle gets you condemned, what do you think killing the King in the North gets you?

 

edit: spelling.

 

Different case. Robb Stark was an enemy to the king's peace, he would have ripped the kingdom's apart if he had the chance to. He let the North fall to the Ironborn.

 

Theon killed two kids that did nothing wrong and were a threath to nobody. Very different situation.



#6 Consigliere

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 12:16 PM

He might even be "reaccepted" by other northern lords if Roose brings Ramsay to Stannis and return all northern captives from the red wedding.

 

Tl;dr : Roose will betray Ramsay, will try to join Stannis' cause and the castle will be attacked from the inside by bolton men.

 

There is an outside possibility of this happening only if everything than can go right does go right for Roose. To be honest I will be shocked if Roose and/or Ramsay are still alive at the end of TWoW. As to releasing the captives from the RW, I believe Jaime has ordered them to be released from the Twins and sent to KL. The BwB are likely planning on mounting a rescue mission to free the captives.

 

 

edit. spelling


Edited by The Titans Bastard, 30 September 2013 - 12:21 PM.


#7 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 12:16 PM

Win against Stannis. Win against Jon Snow. Win against the Manderlys. Win against the White Walkers. Win against the Lannisters. Win against Aegon. Win against Dany. Win for the rest of his life. That's his only chance.

 

The Northmen won't forgive Roose. Stannis can't afford to piss off the Northmen making up at least 80% of his forces (and haven't sworn fealty to him, by the way).



#8 Arya'sSanctuary

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 12:28 PM

Poetic justice: roose dies of severe anemia! Or flayed by Reese :lol:

#9 Jon of the Dead

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 01:29 PM

I started a topic about this a few months ago, and the general consensus was that Roose is screwed. Which is surprising, really, because he's too cunning to end up trapped in a siege/blizzard inside a castle full of uncertain allies. Sure, he lost a major bargaining chip when the spearwives rescued Jeyne and he lost an ace in the hole when

Spoiler

 

So what now? He can't hold Winterfell during a long siege, he can't run, he can't surrender and expect mercy. Well, who knows, maybe when Stannis tries to grab him he'll just turn into a bat and fly away to the Dreadfort  :dunno:



#10 Blue Rose Prince

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 01:48 PM

 

Different case. Robb Stark was an enemy to the king's peace, he would have ripped the kingdom's apart if he had the chance to. He let the North fall to the Ironborn.

 

Theon killed two kids that did nothing wrong and were a threath to nobody. Very different situation.

 

The northerners who join Stannis don't want Theon dead for killing just any two boys, though. They want blood for the killing of Stark boys, the heirs of their overlord (whether Robb was king or lord paramount). The mountain clans have insisted on marching to Winterfell to rescue "the Ned's girl" because they are still true to the Starks. Wyman Manderly will not support Stannis until Rickon is found. The northmen care deeply about the injustices done to HOUSE STARK. Those who don't (like Barbrey Dustin) have already joined Bolton. How would Stannis ever explain to the northerners that the man who betrayed and murdered their overlord is forgiven?

 

Besides, if Stannis has crushed Bolton badly enough that Roose needs to go begging, why would Stannis feel the need to pardon him at all?

 

EDIT: To be clear, I don't think Roose Bolton is done for if he loses the battle of Winterfell, but yielding to Stannis is definitely not the way he gets out of it.


Edited by Blue Rose Prince, 30 September 2013 - 01:50 PM.


#11 Zylathas

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 05:05 AM

I think that it depends on what Roose has to say. Has any northern lord ever heard Roose's story besides what they assumed? Most northern lords did not even know what Robb did south. Roose could explain how Robb was a tyrant and gave the north away to Ironborn so the Bolton's HAD to remove him so they could march back north and take their lands, protect their country.

 

I think that Roose is certainly cunning enough to come with ample evidence to talk himself out of the unjustitfied murder while still having the Frey's to blame.



#12 Myrish Swamp Thing

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 05:36 AM

As long as he's not exposed to sunlight or garlic he'll be fine.

#13 The Frosted King

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 06:36 AM

I think that it depends on what Roose has to say. Has any northern lord ever heard Roose's story besides what they assumed? Most northern lords did not even know what Robb did south. Roose could explain how Robb was a tyrant and gave the north away to Ironborn so the Bolton's HAD to remove him so they could march back north and take their lands, protect their country.
 
I think that Roose is certainly cunning enough to come with ample evidence to talk himself out of the unjustitfied murder while still having the Frey's to blame.


Why would they take the words of a proven liar, traitor and usurper? Against the reputation of a son of the honorable Eddard Stark?
YOU might want Roose to survive, but he betrayed too many, and is a known liar and sadist. And his lordship has no benefits to the north as a whole.
Why would Stannis of all people go against everything that makes him Stannis and forgive a proven turncloak and kingslayer?
He's done, or these books would have no meaning ultimately imo.

#14 Lady Isobel

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 08:00 AM

He cannot, should not and will not survive

(the same applies to his bastard..)



#15 Lady Isobel

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 08:03 AM

Why would they take the words of a proven liar, traitor and usurper? Against the reputation of a son of the honorable Eddard Stark?
YOU might want Roose to survive, but he betrayed too many, and is a known liar and sadist. And his lordship has no benefits to the north as a whole.
Why would Stannis of all people go against everything that makes him Stannis and forgive a proven turncloak and kingslayer?
He's done, or these books would have no meaning ultimately imo.

Exactly, it's Stannis we are talking about, there's no way he'll pardon him. Maybe he'll sacrifice him to R'hllor along with Ramsay  :devil:



#16 Lord of the Twins

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 08:57 AM

If Roose, or even Ramsay, has no other way to live, they could take the black.  Throw one of them in the mix at the Night's Watch with the mess there and Robin Ryger and Desmond Grell, and think about what could happen.  



#17 butterbumps!

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 09:22 AM

 

Tl;dr : Roose will betray Ramsay, will try to join Stannis' cause and the castle will be attacked from the inside by bolton men.

 

I don't think Roose plans to join Stannis, but I think there's something to the idea of offering up justice, and having Stannis satisfied with Roose as warden.  I don't think Roose is in as dire a situation as it seems upfront.

 

It's not Roose the North hates-- it's Ramsay, the Freys and the Ironborn.  Manderly even tells Davos that the North could live with Roose in charge.  Roose isn't known to be a sadist or unstable ("a peaceful land, quiet people"); he's seen by most as a reasonable man one can work with.  

 

Roose is playing each of these sides against the Northmen.  He's already earned some support by flushing the Ironborn.  During DwD, he's been playing the Northmen against the Freys and Ramsay, cultivating the disgust each side has for the others.  He wants them all to fight each other, and fosters the North's hatred for both Ramsay and the Freys, which helps catalyze factious infighting as well as redirects any ire the North might have with him to the other parties.  

 

I hazard the guess that Roose plans to deliver Ramsay and the Freys to the Northmen, thereby winning their support the way he earned points for ridding the North of Ironborn.  He can't deliver the Freys to the North for vengeance too transparently, given that he's married to one and has to make it seem as though the Northmen just went rogue.  He also needs to distance himself from the perception of kinslaying wrt getting rid of Ramsay.  I could see him using one of those parties-- either Ramsay or the Freys-- to offer up to Stannis as you say to satisfy some sense of justice and continue in the capacity as leader of the North.  

 

I think that Roose would be accepted by both Northmen and perhaps even Stannis provided that no other Stark heir could be found.  I know that a lot of readers think the will Robb signed ended up with Maege and Glover, but I feel that I should point out that this has never been confirmed.  Those 2 were given false documents about battle plans to trick any enemies in the event they were captured.  It goes against logic to believe that Robb sent them with a true will as well.  That said, I think there's a good chance the will was with Robb during the RW.  Which would mean that the Freys and by extension Roose would be holding it and aware that Jon's the heir.  In the event Ramsay did write that letter, I'd wager Roose is behind it to lure Jon into a trap thereby eliminating the Stark heir.  



#18 The Frosted King

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 09:31 AM

 
I don't think Roose plans to join Stannis, but I think there's something to the idea of offering up justice, and having Stannis satisfied with Roose as warden.  I don't think Roose is in as dire a situation as it seems upfront.
 
It's not Roose the North hates-- it's Ramsay, the Freys and the Ironborn.  Manderly even tells Davos that the North could live with Roose in charge.  Roose isn't known to be a sadist or unstable ("a peaceful land, quiet people"); he's seen by most as a reasonable man one can work with.  
 
Roose is playing each of these sides against the Northmen.  He's already earned some support by flushing the Ironborn.  During DwD, he's been playing the Northmen against the Freys and Ramsay, cultivating the disgust each side has for the others.  He wants them all to fight each other, and fosters the North's hatred for both Ramsay and the Freys, which helps catalyze factious infighting as well as redirects any ire the North might have with him to the other parties.  
 
I hazard the guess that Roose plans to deliver Ramsay and the Freys to the Northmen, thereby winning their support the way he earned points for ridding the North of Ironborn.  He can't deliver the Freys to the North for vengeance too transparently, given that he's married to one and has to make it seem as though the Northmen just went rogue.  He also needs to distance himself from the perception of kinslaying wrt getting rid of Ramsay.  I could see him using one of those parties-- either Ramsay or the Freys-- to offer up to Stannis as you say to satisfy some sense of justice and continue in the capacity as leader of the North.  
 
I think that Roose would be accepted by both Northmen and perhaps even Stannis provided that no other Stark heir could be found.  I know that a lot of readers think the will Robb signed ended up with Maege and Glover, but I feel that I should point out that this has never been confirmed.  Those 2 were given false documents about battle plans to trick any enemies in the event they were captured.  It goes against logic to believe that Robb sent them with a true will as well.  That said, I think there's a good chance the will was with Robb during the RW.  Which would mean that the Freys and by extension Roose would be holding it and aware that Jon's the heir.  In the event Ramsay did write that letter, I'd wager Roose is behind it to lure Jon into a trap thereby eliminating the Stark heir.  


Lol to everything you state here.

It wasn't Wyman Manderly but a more minor lord at the farce in the Mermans court who said a man can deal with Roose.

The north that lost thousands to the RW doesn't hate the only man to come out the tragedy suspiciously smelling like roses?

Right now they have to swallow the circumstances, but once a true solution presents itself, House Bolton is done.
The north isn't the better for its existence, only worse, and the leaders of the house played too dangerous a game for their actions to not have dire consequences.
If Roose does survive and remain in power, it'd take several intelligent people acting like idiots, but Martin hasn't shied away from that tactic thus.

#19 SeanF

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 09:36 AM

I think Roose is anticipating defeat by Stannis in the coming battle.  But, his own men are loyal.  I think he's a sufficiently competent commander to be able to carry out a fighting retreat into his own lands.



#20 butterbumps!

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 09:47 AM

Lol to everything you state here.

It wasn't Wyman Manderly but a more minor lord at the farce in the Mermans court who said a man can deal with Roose.

The north that lost thousands to the RW doesn't hate the only man to come out the tragedy suspiciously smelling like roses?

Right now they have to swallow the circumstances, but once a true solution presents itself, House Bolton is done.
The north isn't the better for its existence, only worse, and the leaders of the house played too dangerous a game for their actions to not have dire consequences.
If Roose does survive and remain in power, it'd take several intelligent people acting like idiots, but Martin hasn't shied away from that tactic thus.

 

Laugh all you want.  Laughing isn't going to turn Roose into the blithering fool you seem to assume he is. 

 

You do realize that the North knows Roose killed Robb, right?  It's not as though it's actually a secret.  A bunch of Northmen actually came into the Twins-- as Northmen, not incognito-- and joined the slaughter (Cat sees them and thinks they've been saved, only to realize they were killing the Umbers).  Further, killing Robb =/= breaking guest right, so the stain on the Freys isn't Roose's deal.  Kingslaying doesn't have the same sort of connotation that breaking guest right or kinslaying do.  The only reason people make a big deal about Jaime's kingslaying is because he was a KG.  Roose had sworn no such vow to Robb.  It's also worth noting that Roose purposely spared a number of Houses from slaughter at the RW, which gives these families some degree of thanks to Roose.

 

For a guy who understood that the tide had turned before news of Robb's marriage to Jeyne was received (he went out hunting wolves after discussing the results of Blackwater and Theon's Winterfell invasion, realizing the cause was lost), it seems decidedly inconsistent to assume Roose has no plan and is up shit's creek here.