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Roose bolton - How can he survive?


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#101 butterbumps!

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 11:06 AM

I don't get it. Hodor jokes=lame even before they became played out(which happened long ago)

Eh, I guess it's a comment on the perceived idiocy of any position that says Roose has a chance of surviving this upcoming conflict.

 

I think a lot of readers assume that Roose is more like Tywin than he really is.  Meaning, I think there's an assumption that Roose's goals are transparent, and that his endgame is about political power and reaching for material benefit.  In truth, Roose is the only other character in the series outside of LF who plays the game for the sake of playing the game:

 

This is a game to him, mildly diverting. Some men hunt, some hawk, some tumble dice. Roose plays with men. You and me, these Freys, Lord Manderly, his plump new wife, even his bastard, we are but his playthings.”
 
This is also another man who thrives on chaos:  
Roose:  “Are these times so terrible, Maester?”
Qyburn:  “Summer is gone and there are four kings in the realm.”
Roose:  “One king may be terrible, but four?”
 
So his "endgame" is actually pretty up in the air, and the fact that he's never overreached himself (i.e. he's merely called himself Lord of the Dreadfort) kind of opens things up in terms of what Roose wants and what he'd consider defeat.
 

 

 

Roose being a co-conspirator with Walder puts the dead northmen at his feet, along with Robb.

The bolton men slew Dacey and Smalljon as well.
So no, i don't see how throwing the Freys down keeps him safe.

But do the Northmen know that detail? 

 

Let me ask a different question.  What do you think Roose is looking for exactly?  

 

More importantly, why do you think Roose directly implicated himself and his men in the RW?   Because he was going to be rewarded by Tywin for delivering Glover and Ser Helman to Gregor when he gave them those false directives, for delivering Wylis Manderly to Gregor across the bank, and for arranging the wedding.  The kingslaying and use of his own men was an added bonus of sorts-- unnecessary for the agreement it seems.  And it seems like he got the idea to kill Robb himself after Jaime leaves Harrenhal.  

 

You seem to think that this was a massive blunder on Roose's part.  Indeed, it looks like a blunder, in that if he were to do something the Northmen would never accept in order to win wardenship of the North, then it serves no purpose because he'd never actually be able to hold that title.  And further, he could have just stayed in the privy and not exposed himself at all in order to get this warden reward and keep himself from the Northmen's ire.

 

Does Roose truly strike you as the sort to play things so carefully only to make a ridiculous, not to mention, unnecessary, move to kill Robb if the wardenship is truly what he wants?


Edited by butterbumps!, 02 October 2013 - 11:06 AM.


#102 mediterraneo

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 11:30 AM

 

Eh, I guess it's a comment on the perceived idiocy of any position that says Roose has a chance of surviving this upcoming conflict.

 

I think a lot of readers assume that Roose is more like Tywin than he really is.  Meaning, I think there's an assumption that Roose's goals are transparent, and that his endgame is about political power and reaching for material benefit.  In truth, Roose is the only other character in the series outside of LF who plays the game for the sake of playing the game:

 

This is a game to him, mildly diverting. Some men hunt, some hawk, some tumble dice. Roose plays with men. You and me, these Freys, Lord Manderly, his plump new wife, even his bastard, we are but his playthings.”
 
This is also another man who thrives on chaos:  
Roose:  “Are these times so terrible, Maester?”
Qyburn:  “Summer is gone and there are four kings in the realm.”
Roose:  “One king may be terrible, but four?”
 
So his "endgame" is actually pretty up in the air, and the fact that he's never overreached himself (i.e. he's merely called himself Lord of the Dreadfort) kind of opens things up in terms of what Roose wants and what he'd consider defeat.
 

 

 

But do the Northmen know that detail? 

 

Let me ask a different question.  What do you think Roose is looking for exactly?  

 

More importantly, why do you think Roose directly implicated himself and his men in the RW?   Because he was going to be rewarded by Tywin for delivering Glover and Ser Helman to Gregor when he gave them those false directives, for delivering Wylis Manderly to Gregor across the bank, and for arranging the wedding.  The kingslaying and use of his own men was an added bonus of sorts-- unnecessary for the agreement it seems.  And it seems like he got the idea to kill Robb himself after Jaime leaves Harrenhal.  

 

You seem to think that this was a massive blunder on Roose's part.  Indeed, it looks like a blunder, in that if he were to do something the Northmen would never accept in order to win wardenship of the North, then it serves no purpose because he'd never actually be able to hold that title.  And further, he could have just stayed in the privy and not exposed himself at all in order to get this warden reward and keep himself from the Northmen's ire.

 

Does Roose truly strike you as the sort to play things so carefully only to make a ridiculous, not to mention, unnecessary, move to kill Robb if the wardenship is truly what he wants?

 

I really like this post.
Any analysis of Bolton's chances to survive and thrive should really take in account Roose's intentions, plans and strategies.
I disagree with Butterbumps on things: killing Robb with his own hands was needed to Roose to demonstate to the "winners" that he actively compromitted with the betrayal.
But the plan is good.
Which are Roose's motivations?

Let's try with some.
1 - the North Remembers. Bolton and Stark were both kings in the time, and enemies. Boltons skinned Starks to take their wolf power since thousands of years ago.
2 - related: Qyburn and generally necromantic affairs (books in Harrenhall too). including the fact that the Faceless Men (accross the Narrow Sea from the Dreadfort) do a very similar thing than the Boltons to their (willfull?) victims, with magical purposes: skinning to take their face. Add the vampire-styled general creepiness of the man. Magic at work.
3 - Vengeance. Roose says publically that he doesn't want a child ruler for his House, and then assumes that the bastard that killed his first son will kill the eventual new ones... and apparently does nothing on that. Is Roose the type of man to coldly, stoically accept to suffer defeats and humiliation by anybody? It is true that Roose Bolton doesn't like to fight the wars he cannot win though. But we do lack some information here.
4, 5, 6... Give me more, boys and girls.... What is Roose up to?



#103 The Frosted King

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 12:52 PM


Eh, I guess it's a comment on the perceived idiocy of any position that says Roose has a chance of surviving this upcoming conflict.
 
I think a lot of readers assume that Roose is more like Tywin than he really is.  Meaning, I think there's an assumption that Roose's goals are transparent, and that his endgame is about political power and reaching for material benefit.  In truth, Roose is the only other character in the series outside of LF who plays the game for the sake of playing the game:
 
This is a game to him, mildly diverting. Some men hunt, some hawk, some tumble dice. Roose plays with men. You and me, these Freys, Lord Manderly, his plump new wife, even his bastard, we are but his playthings.
 
This is also another man who thrives on chaos:  
Roose:  Are these times so terrible, Maester?
Qyburn:  Summer is gone and there are four kings in the realm.
Roose:  One king may be terrible, but four?
 
So his "endgame" is actually pretty up in the air, and the fact that he's never overreached himself (i.e. he's merely called himself Lord of the Dreadfort) kind of opens things up in terms of what Roose wants and what he'd consider defeat.
 

 
 
But do the Northmen know that detail? 
 
Let me ask a different question.  What do you think Roose is looking for exactly?  
 
More importantly, why do you think Roose directly implicated himself and his men in the RW?   Because he was going to be rewarded by Tywin for delivering Glover and Ser Helman to Gregor when he gave them those false directives, for delivering Wylis Manderly to Gregor across the bank, and for arranging the wedding.  The kingslaying and use of his own men was an added bonus of sorts-- unnecessary for the agreement it seems.  And it seems like he got the idea to kill Robb himself after Jaime leaves Harrenhal.  
 
You seem to think that this was a massive blunder on Roose's part.  Indeed, it looks like a blunder, in that if he were to do something the Northmen would never accept in order to win wardenship of the North, then it serves no purpose because he'd never actually be able to hold that title.  And further, he could have just stayed in the privy and not exposed himself at all in order to get this warden reward and keep himself from the Northmen's ire.
 
Does Roose truly strike you as the sort to play things so carefully only to make a ridiculous, not to mention, unnecessary, move to kill Robb if the wardenship is truly what he wants?


Roose acted as he felt was in HIS best interests. The rule of the north, and the destruction of his oldest enemy.

He couldn't have known Joffrey would die, swiftly followed by Tywin.
He also couldn't guess that Stannis would turn up at the Wall, and become the very thing Roose thought he was ridding himself of when he murdered Robb Stark; a viable alternative.
Tyrion coming north with a son by Sansa means nothing, as the choice between a Bolton and a Lannister is always going to fall to Bolton to other northmen.
But a Baratheon seeking to oust the Boltons is an entirely different beast, one that Roose carries no bullets for. He's not coming to claim the north, but cleanse it.
Imagine the danger Roose would be in if Jon did bend and rise.

Just because Roose played well prior doesn't mean he's Lex Luthor gone northman.
Contingency plans run out.

#104 The Frosted King

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 12:55 PM


Eh, I guess it's a comment on the perceived idiocy of any position that says Roose has a chance of surviving this upcoming conflict.
 
I think a lot of readers assume that Roose is more like Tywin than he really is.  Meaning, I think there's an assumption that Roose's goals are transparent, and that his endgame is about political power and reaching for material benefit.  In truth, Roose is the only other character in the series outside of LF who plays the game for the sake of playing the game:
 
This is a game to him, mildly diverting. Some men hunt, some hawk, some tumble dice. Roose plays with men. You and me, these Freys, Lord Manderly, his plump new wife, even his bastard, we are but his playthings.
 
This is also another man who thrives on chaos:  
Roose:  Are these times so terrible, Maester?
Qyburn:  Summer is gone and there are four kings in the realm.
Roose:  One king may be terrible, but four?
 
So his "endgame" is actually pretty up in the air, and the fact that he's never overreached himself (i.e. he's merely called himself Lord of the Dreadfort) kind of opens things up in terms of what Roose wants and what he'd consider defeat.
 

 
 
But do the Northmen know that detail? 
 
Let me ask a different question.  What do you think Roose is looking for exactly?  
 
More importantly, why do you think Roose directly implicated himself and his men in the RW?   Because he was going to be rewarded by Tywin for delivering Glover and Ser Helman to Gregor when he gave them those false directives, for delivering Wylis Manderly to Gregor across the bank, and for arranging the wedding.  The kingslaying and use of his own men was an added bonus of sorts-- unnecessary for the agreement it seems.  And it seems like he got the idea to kill Robb himself after Jaime leaves Harrenhal.  
 
You seem to think that this was a massive blunder on Roose's part.  Indeed, it looks like a blunder, in that if he were to do something the Northmen would never accept in order to win wardenship of the North, then it serves no purpose because he'd never actually be able to hold that title.  And further, he could have just stayed in the privy and not exposed himself at all in order to get this warden reward and keep himself from the Northmen's ire.
 
Does Roose truly strike you as the sort to play things so carefully only to make a ridiculous, not to mention, unnecessary, move to kill Robb if the wardenship is truly what he wants?


Roose acted as he felt was in HIS best interests. The rule of the north, and the destruction of his oldest enemy.

He couldn't have known Joffrey would die, swiftly followed by Tywin.
He also couldn't guess that Stannis would turn up at the Wall, and become the very thing Roose thought he was ridding himself of when he murdered Robb Stark; a viable alternative.
Tyrion coming north with a son by Sansa means nothing, as the choice between a Bolton and a Lannister is always going to fall to Bolton to other northmen.
But a Baratheon seeking to oust the Boltons is an entirely different beast, one that Roose carries no bullets for. He's not coming to claim the north, but cleanse it.
Imagine the danger Roose would be in if Jon did bend and rise.

Just because Roose played well prior doesn't mean he's Lex Luthor gone northman.
Contingency plans run out.

#105 ejhawman

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 01:08 PM

Long term, Roose cannot survive.

 

Short term, I see the Battle of Ice coming out with Roose vacating Winterfell under the impression Stannis is dead and the threat ended. He finds out otherwise on his way back to the Dreadfort, and being unprepared for seige, continues on his way, but planning to turn around and seige WF when he can.

 

Ramsey will likely end up either dead at WF or fleeing to Hornwood. Roose might promise to hand him over, but I don't think a deal will go anywhere. Stannis' northmen will not stand for it. And if Theon breaks down and tells Stannis of the ruse about Arya, while Stannis might think it grasping at straws, he might also see it as a useful false accusation to make, to prise Roose's northmen away.

 

I ultimately expect the Whie Walkers to render most Northern issues moot, but FWIW, having Roose turn on Ramsey is an intriguing idea.



#106 butterbumps!

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 03:38 PM

But a Baratheon seeking to oust the Boltons is an entirely different beast, one that Roose carries no bullets for. He's not coming to claim the north, but cleanse it.
Imagine the danger Roose would be in if Jon did bend and rise.

Just because Roose played well prior doesn't mean he's Lex Luthor gone northman.
Contingency plans run out.

The card Roose is currently playing is taking Winterfell in the first place, as he's planning a siege, and as of Reek III (I think) the Boltons have more forces than Stannis in raw numbers (Bolton's Ryswells, Dustins).  The numbers change with the discovery of Karstark, but even still, we're told of previous Bolton sieges having lasted 2 years.

 

Unless Stannis can infiltrate the castle in spite of the dismal conditions he's facing before Winterfell falls into mutiny, Roose has the advantage.  

 

And it's not exactly like this "cleansing" you discuss means smooth sailing for Stannis either.  These clans are marching to save Ned's daughter.  How pissed off do you think they're going to be when they figure out that that's not Arya?  And how much more pissed off than that will they be if they figure out that Stannis is going to give Arya (assuming the ruse still works) and Winterfell to one of his Southron Fools, as per his words to Jon?

 

It might be worth mentioning too that Roose knows Bran and Rickon are out there and expects they'll turn up:  "We have powerful friends in the Lannisters and Freys, and the grudging support of much of the north … but what do you imagine is going to happen when one of Ned Stark’s sons turns up?”    So Roose is planning for this contingency, which was supposed to be Manderly's big trump card.   



#107 StannisBamfatheon

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 03:41 PM

The card Roose is currently playing is taking Winterfell in the first place, as he's planning a siege, and as of Reek III (I think) the Boltons have more forces than Stannis in raw numbers (Bolton's Ryswells, Dustins).  The numbers change with the discovery of Karstark, but even still, we're told of previous Bolton sieges having lasted 2 years.

 

Unless Stannis can infiltrate the castle in spite of the dismal conditions he's facing before Winterfell falls into mutiny, Roose has the advantage.  

 

And it's not exactly like this "cleansing" you discuss means smooth sailing for Stannis either.  These clans are marching to save Ned's daughter.  How pissed off do you think they're going to be when they figure out that that's not Arya?  And how much more pissed off than that will they be if they figure out that Stannis is going to give Arya (assuming the ruse still works) and Winterfell to one of his Southron Fools, as per his words to Jon?

 

It might be worth mentioning too that Roose knows Bran and Rickon are out there and expects they'll turn up:  "We have powerful friends in the Lannisters and Freys, and the grudging support of much of the north … but what do you imagine is going to happen when one of Ned Stark’s sons turns up?”    So Roose is planning for this contingency, which was supposed to be Manderly's big trump card.   

 

So Stannis is going to lose the Battle of Winterfell bumps?  Maybe I shouldn't post anymore...I probably need surgery to remove THE KNIFE FROM MY BACK.



#108 butterbumps!

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 03:58 PM

 

So Stannis is going to lose the Battle of Winterfell bumps?  Maybe I shouldn't post anymore...I probably need surgery to remove THE KNIFE FROM MY BACK.

I'm not saying Stannis is going to lose.  I just don't agree with the "Stannis has this in the bag and all the Northmen will love him and despair" position, or the "Roose is a braindead idiot who doesn't know how this looks and hasn't considered his weaknesses" side of things. 

 

Besides, I think Roose's real trump card will be to charm Stannis with impeccable manners, as per this excerpt from The Bolton Guide to Etiquette: "Power tastes best when sweetened by courtesy."  Or maybe it foreshadows how he's working with Sansa. 



#109 StannisBamfatheon

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 04:01 PM

I'm not saying Stannis is going to lose.  I just don't agree with the "Stannis has this in the bag and all the Northmen will love him and despair" position, or the "Roose is a braindead idiot who doesn't know how this looks and hasn't considered his weaknesses" side of things. 

 

Besides, I think Roose's real trump card will be to charm Stannis with impeccable manners, as per this excerpt from The Bolton Guide to Etiquette: "Power tastes best when sweetened by courtesy."  Or maybe it foreshadows how he's working with Sansa. 

 

BEAUTIFUL AND BALD THEY WILL HAVE A KING.

 

I say Roose should just escape by houseboat.  But I just don't see how narratively the boltons/freys will win.  I don't think Jon's coming south any time soon due to his...uhh, predicament.  So it's like, our the Boltons gonna reign in the north in perpetuity?  The north remembers brah.



#110 butterbumps!

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 04:19 PM

 

BEAUTIFUL AND BALD THEY WILL HAVE A KING.

 

I say Roose should just escape by houseboat.  But I just don't see how narratively the boltons/freys will win.  I don't think Jon's coming south any time soon due to his...uhh, predicament.  So it's like, our the Boltons gonna reign in the north in perpetuity?  The north remembers brah.

lol, brah, I said I'm not advocating the Boltons will rule in perpetuity.  It's about the outcomes of the Battle of Winterfell, and judging from the comments, it seems to be a popular belief that the Boltons are about to be extinguished, the North and Stannis will get along swimmingly and restore a Stark ASAP, and......... the vast majority of the next 2 books will have everyone north of the Neck holding hands as dragonglass rains from the sky and kills the Others?

 

jokes aside, I'm really only arguing against treating this Battle as a fait accompli, and the certainty that this battle destroys the Boltons.  And I'm not really so sure that higher political aspirations are even Roose's goal.  



#111 Pearlthegirl

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 06:16 PM

The card Roose is currently playing is taking Winterfell in the first place, as he's planning a siege, and as of Reek III (I think) the Boltons have more forces than Stannis in raw numbers (Bolton's Ryswells, Dustins).  The numbers change with the discovery of Karstark, but even still, we're told of previous Bolton sieges having lasted 2 years.

I don't think Roose can count on the Ryswells and Dustin's, especially since Lady Barbrey got the crypts open so troops can sneak in/confirm the Stark heirs live. She even says, "The North remembers", getting a reaction from normally stoic Roose! His alliances are a castle of cards.

I like your very astute points about how Roose has insulated himself somewhat. He's definitely not bragging about all his despicable feats and allowing Ramsey and the Freys to take the brunt of all blame. Roose is certainly a slippery lamprey to get in a pie! The trick will be if he gets the opportunity to try to talk/negotiate/otherwise skate his way out of it. If the heat of battle hits, he may just get bloodied!

Crackpot: Roose plans to die so he can warg himself into his and Fat Walda's baby they got cooking! By the Old Gods and the New, I sure hope it's a girl! Hodor! The Seed is Strong! Winter is Coming! Etc! ;)

#112 Ramsay Gimp

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 06:24 PM

Roose's only major mistake was bringing the Freys to Winterfell. All of the other events that have gone wrong for him have been bad luck or the not-so-invisble hand of GRRM. R'Hollor magic, daring escape plans, unlikely coincidences, etc.

 

But the Freys were always going to be a problem at Winterfell, surrounded by the other Northerners. Roose should have stationed them at the Dreadfort, perhaps with Fat Walda. Use them as reinforcements of last resort (with some trusted Bolton men to guide them through the harsh North), but don't flaunt them 



#113 Seņor de la Tormenta

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 06:38 PM

His way out is to make a hold in the dreadfort, and declaring himself either pro Aegon or The mad queen. He is no more traitor in eyes of the targaryens than any other house, plus he betrayed the usurpers dog son, and is fighting the usurper brother, plus he might be the only house in the north not supporting the true king or KON so they would accept him with open arms!

#114 Arthur Dayne's Honor

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 07:07 PM

What I think will happen is that Ramsay will be slain when Stannis takes Winterfell but Roose will manage to escape to The Dreadfort through some clever ploy. Seeing as how Roose's forces are now decimated with few left to defend the Dreadfort, the GNC will come into fruition and The Northmen will kick Stannis out and they will crown Jon as KITN soon after. Time will fly as the Northmen are preparing to finish Roose off but a now incognito Jaime will approach the Dreadfort and reveal himself to Roose. Roose will let him in and Jaime will cut him down. Jaime will have 2 reasons to do this

1. He will hear from LS about "Jaime Lannister sends his regards." And will seek vengeance for besmirching his name in such a way

2. The main reason will be to prove himself to Jon as I believe Jaime will know of R+L=Jon

#115 AemonEightstrings

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 07:40 PM

Why are so many people in this discussion so sure of a Stannis victory at Winterfell? Roose seems to have the definite advantage behind the castle walls with more men at his side. Not to mention Grrm loves punching his fans in he balls .
Is there any foreshadowing or evidence in DwD that points to a Stannis victory?

#116 Ramsay Gimp

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 07:40 PM

What I think will happen is that Ramsay will be slain when Stannis takes Winterfell but Roose will manage to escape to The Dreadfort through some clever ploy. Seeing as how Roose's forces are now decimated with few left to defend the Dreadfort, the GNC will come into fruition and The Northmen will kick Stannis out and they will crown Jon as KITN soon after. Time will fly as the Northmen are preparing to finish Roose off but a now incognito Jaime will approach the Dreadfort and reveal himself to Roose. Roose will let him in and Jaime will cut him down. Jaime will have 2 reasons to do this

1. He will hear from LS about "Jaime Lannister sends his regards." And will seek vengeance for besmirching his name in such a way

2. The main reason will be to prove himself to Jon as I believe Jaime will know of R+L=Jon

 

Waaay too neat and tidy. Jaime at the Dreadfort? C'mon. Also, Roose's forces are not "decimated" even if Stannis wins against Ramsay and the Freys. He still has more men than all the other Northern houses at Winterfell (perhaps more than all of them combined)



#117 Arthur Dayne's Honor

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 07:49 PM

 
Waaay too neat and tidy. Jaime at the Dreadfort? C'mon. Also, Roose's forces are not "decimated" even if Stannis wins against Ramsay and the Freys. He still has more men than all the other Northern houses at Winterfell (perhaps more than all of them combined)


http://asoiaf.wester...-the-kingmaker/

#118 E-Ro

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 07:51 PM

Why are so many people in this discussion so sure of a Stannis victory at Winterfell? Roose seems to have the definite advantage behind the castle walls with more men at his side. Not to mention Grrm loves punching his fans in he balls .
Is there any foreshadowing or evidence in DwD that points to a Stannis victory?

 

Did you read the other parts of the thread?

 

Here.

 

 

 

 

Spoiler

 

Spoiler

 

 
 
Yes, well this is pretty obvious, but allow me to spell it out. In dance there is alot of foreshadowing for this.
1.Stannis and his men are on a lake, the lake is being drilled with numerous holes to fish from, one of the northmen comments on how the lake is fished out and full of holes.
2.Stannis comments on how his men will be fighting on foot.
3.He remarks on how he holds the ground.
4.The man in charge of the freys is an idiot, made even more stupid by his anger and frustration.
 
After the frey force sent after stannis is broken, manderly rides in, makes a deal with stannis takes his sword to roose as proof stannis is dead, and opens up the gates. Simple. 
 
 
ETA: I figure i should add, this doesnt necessarily mean that roose is done for,  merely that the freys and ramsay are. Allot hinges on Stannis and the manderlys making nice with each other. 

Edited by E-Ro, 02 October 2013 - 07:59 PM.


#119 StannisBamfatheon

StannisBamfatheon

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Posted 02 October 2013 - 08:04 PM

lol, brah, I said I'm not advocating the Boltons will rule in perpetuity.  It's about the outcomes of the Battle of Winterfell, and judging from the comments, it seems to be a popular belief that the Boltons are about to be extinguished, the North and Stannis will get along swimmingly and restore a Stark ASAP, and......... the vast majority of the next 2 books will have everyone north of the Neck holding hands as dragonglass rains from the sky and kills the Others?

 

jokes aside, I'm really only arguing against treating this Battle as a fait accompli, and the certainty that this battle destroys the Boltons.  And I'm not really so sure that higher political aspirations are even Roose's goal.  

 

Sorry bumps you said something that could slightly be construed as against Stannis, and as such my dark burned while I stood in line at Panera and I had to rebut!  



#120 AemonEightstrings

AemonEightstrings

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 02:44 AM

 

 

Did you read the other parts of the thread?

 

Here.

 

 

 

 

Spoiler

 

Spoiler

 

 
 
Yes, well this is pretty obvious, but allow me to spell it out. In dance there is alot of foreshadowing for this.
1.Stannis and his men are on a lake, the lake is being drilled with numerous holes to fish from, one of the northmen comments on how the lake is fished out and full of holes.
2.Stannis comments on how his men will be fighting on foot.
3.He remarks on how he holds the ground.
4.The man in charge of the freys is an idiot, made even more stupid by his anger and frustration.
 
After the frey force sent after stannis is broken, manderly rides in, makes a deal with stannis takes his sword to roose as proof stannis is dead, and opens up the gates. Simple. 
 
 
ETA: I figure i should add, this doesnt necessarily mean that roose is done for,  merely that the freys and ramsay are. Allot hinges on Stannis and the manderlys making nice with each other.
 

Yes, the invading force slipped all over the frozen lake and the archers kicked their asses. Thats a well thought out comparison but its still way too vague to guarantee a Stannis victory, IMO. Don't get me wrong, I hope he smashes them in to bolton bits but I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if it went the other way.

I love how confident he is in that conversation with Theon but Stannis would be the first to remind us all that words are wind