The Purple Wedding - When Plots Collide

[kiasyd]

It was an amazing read, and I love the idea of two concurrent clashing poisoning plots at the same time in the same wedding, but I like it better of half your theory: Exactly the same plot as LF described, plus the poisoned pie by Cersei.

Anyway, I think there is already a double-murder in aSoS with Tywin... Now Tywin *and* Joffrey is hilarious! :D

[Steve Moss II]

Cersei attempting to poison Tyrion but accidentally poisoning Joffrey has a wonderful symmetry to it. After all, Tyrion successfully poisoned Cersei, so she may have attempted to do the same but more so, because she's thinks she's so much more cleverer and ruthless that her dwarf brother. Her failure and killing of Joffrey also underscores her incompetence.

And her descent into madness would be appropriate, considering the consequences of kin slaying, even unintentional ones.

[dala]

I agree Cersei is really good at rationalising things to herself, but if this is true, then she didn't rationalise it. There's no hint she even thinks about it all, or that it affects her in any way. Also, I don't see any example in the text she's willing to allow people to hurt her children at all. Maybe that's pride rather than motherly love, the principle of the thing, but the assumption Cersei tries to protect her children for whatever reason is supported many times in the text.

You don't really see it until she's alone with Tommen, probably because Joffrey did what she wanted, more or less, and because of how the POVs were set up. With her younger son, you see her verbally and emotionally abuse him almost every time they interact. She also undermines his training to be a good king (most notably refusing to have him trained in arms or politics) in order to further her political career, There is also some very telling innuendo around his mistreatment by Joffrey, which she at the very least condoned. Sure, she doesn't allow outsiders to harm them, but that's a combination of her needing them to maintain power and narcissistic mirroring.

[Maestor Tarly]

I love the self-fulfilling prophecy of Cersei trying to prevent the Valonqar and in turn kills her oldest son... One down, two to go... I hope Tommen and Myrcella's deaths are also by Cersei's hand while trying to prevent her prophecy from becoming reality.

[Roland Deschain of Gilead]

I like it! It's a pretty big post/theory so ill give it a re read in a bit. Makes me quite excited for the PW on the show to see how much of this cuts across.

I agree completely on LF lying to Sansa, and the Tyrells motives align with them trying to take Sansa away to get her claim/marry her to Willas.

The things I don't get are:

-Cersei accidentally killing Joffrey, I agree it's the theory makes sense and it could have been executed. However I don't believe that Cersei's thoughts correspond in a manner to suggest that she was actually responsible.

-The Tyrells knowing from Sansa's dress. Is LF meant to have told them part of his plan, but not that he was taking Sansa to the Vale? Or is he meant to move her to the Reach later?

-I don't see any kinda of comforting code in Olenna's talk with Sansa at all.

[ejhawman]

:cheers: Welcome!

I don't buy it. To me, it seems clear there is only one plan, jointly executed by the Tyrells and LF. Sansa and Tyrion were not in the know, the accusation of Tyrion was a nice bonus but they didn't expect it.

[ambi76]

Well, I never thought it that thoroughly through, but I also always had a hunch that something went decidedly wrong at that wedding, i.e. different people's plots coliding indeed. We'll see, if GRRM ever follows up.

[Welease Woger]

That theory is awesome! Congratulations, Ser!

[Thendel]

Sorry, but this theory is filled to the brim with holes and entirely unfounded assumptions:

1. Joffrey's throat constricts while he's eating the damn pie: That's an extremely potent poison that takes effect before it has even properly entered the victim's system. The wine from the goblet, on the other hand, was drunk before Joffrey began eating the pie, leaving room for it to work its magic.
   
2. If Cersei had planned to kill Tyrion pre-Joffrey's death, we would have seen an inkling of it in her PoV. Ned's PoV is an example of a Martin character compartmentalizing, yet there are nothing akin to "Promise me, Ned" in Cersei's case.
   
3. As someone before me pointed out, Cersei does not react until before Joffrey begins to choke. The OP assumes that Cersei kept a close watch on Tyrion and the pie served, yet she just sat there and allowed Joffrey to eat pie she had just poisoned?
   
4. The OP bases Littlefinger's poisoning plan to only have to take place after the feast, and not during, on something Dontos said days before the wedding. Dontos, the drunk who was only responsible for planting the Strangler and whisking Sansa out of there, is somewhat keenly aware of when and how the victim will be poisoned. Sorry, that doesn't hold up.
   
5. Why are we to suppose that Olenna is suddenly completely altruistic when it comes to Sansa? What did Sansa do to merit her going to such lengths to save her hide? Why didn't Garlan, who was seated right next to her, take personal care of seeing her out the feast instead of leaving her to her own devices?
   

[Castellan]

The only part of your quote that interested me was the invitation to Highgarden. This may mean nothing but it could mean Olenna expected Tyrion to be blamed and executed but not Sansa. The Tyrells then get three benefits: another chance at a Sansa-Willas marriage, removal of a capable Lannister and Margaery does not have to marry Joffrey.

Obviously LF did not confide his intention to kidnap Sansa.

[roxWolfox]

TL:DR How two different poisoning plots could interfere with each other to produce the results seen at Joffrey’s wedding. Afterwards, a closer examination of the Tyrells’ likely motives.

My own conclusions:

Margaery, Alerie and Olenna Tyrell were genuinely trying to help Sansa.

And Petyr Baelish is as superlative a portrait of a dangerous, duplicitous, manipulative, conniving S.O.B without the slightest shred of human decency as has ever been committed to paper.

Why, I’m angry just thinking about him!

* * *

Just so you know -- This post is quite long, but it could have been much, much longer!

If you actually read the whole thing then I thank you very much for your patience and kind attention. J

* * *

PS – I desperately want my title to read “I waddle, therefore I am.”

One post down, 699 to go. :::sigh:::

Well, first of all, welcome to the boards, The Puffin Has Three Heads; secondly, thank you for such an entertaining read. What a thought-provoking first post. :D

:cheers:

As much as I'd love to think that someone, somewhere out there in the crazy political landscape of Westeros actually cares for Sansa's well-being, I'm not quite that positive that any of the Tyrells fit the bill. Wanting to frame Tyrion, and thereby allowing the possiblity for Sansa and Willas to marry is something I think they would do, though.

As for Cercei poisoning the pie assuming it would be Tyrion consuming it...it's hard to say...hmmmm. Irony, indeed. :P

As it is, from what I've read, I did think that Joff had consumed the poison before eating the pie...but now, thanks to your OP, I think I need to read Cressen vs Melisandre and the wedding chapters again. Just to look at it from a different perspective. :D

And your comments on Littlefinger that I've kept in the quote box? Priceless! XD

Here's me crossing my fingers you get to #700 in record time, with posts like this.

[Trinton07]

An issue you fail to address is why they would go through the trouble of framing tyrion for killing joffrey instead of just trying to kill tyrion, esspicailly if they didn't really want to kill joffrey, as you assume. it makes sense though that no matter who was poisined there would be suspicson and they needed someone to take the fall. it would be easy for tyrion to take the fall for joffreys murder, but if tyrion died then sansa would be suspected.

also why would olena bother questioning sansa about how much of a dick joff is?

idk the whole thing is a little far fetched but its not outrageous i suppose.

[chrisdaw]

There are multiple possible poisoners including Cersei, should it be the pie that was poisoned and intended for Tyrion. Margaery was not in on any plot.

And Olenna cares nothing for Sansa's WF claim, that's just how she won over Mace, she cares only about removing an innocent girl from a dangerous place and finding her lovely grandson a fittingly lovely wife. Family, their safety and happiness and the charity cases of highborn maidens are Olenna's motivations.

[Rooseman]

And Olenna cares nothing for Sansa's WF claim, that's just how she won over Mace, she cares only about removing an innocent girl from a dangerous place and finding her lovely grandson a fittingly lovely wife. Family, their safety and happiness and the charity cases of highborn maidens are Olenna's motivations.

You must be one of the lucky guys who managed to pick up one of those rare ASOS copys that have Olenna POVs in it. I'm jealous.

[Estelindis]

I don't think this theory is watertight, but it really is appealing to think of Cersei as actually having killed Joffrey.

The main obstacle for the standard explanation for the Purple Wedding is, in my opinion, everything depending on Sansa actually deciding to wear the hairnet with the jewels of poison. Like yourself, I never really understood why such an important scheme would have such a gaping weakness.

[chrisdaw]

Olenna doesn't require a POV to reveal her mode of thinking as she's more than happy to give Sansa a full bodied explanation of how and why she's an isolationist.

[Jarocal]

It was OP's suggestion not mine, about Cersei poisoning a pie. And there wasn't ONE pie, there were many, probably hundreds, to feed the crowd.

And, come to think of it, it makes even more sense if she was trying to set up Sansa. Just a thought.

I don't see Cersei trying to frame Sansa for Killing Tyrion when as far as the Lannisters are concerned she is necessary to lay claim on Winterfell (at least until she produces an heir preferably with a Lannister). The Tyrion/Sansa marriage was a win/win for both Cersei and Tywin. The war was winding down. Soon Tyrion would have to escort his wife back to Winterfell to take up her seat basically installing a Lannister in the north. He would be away from KL/Cersei and she could return to scheming about things other than him (again at least until an heir is produced). For Tywin it would be bestowing Tyrion almost with an inheritance that he can't complain about even though it is not Casterly Rock. He knows Tyrion is capable at politicking and has every reason to believe that in a few short years he will have cemented Lannister control of the North. The Tyrell alliance is strengthened by being wedded to Joffery and he still has Cersei he can marry off again to further cement a bond in the Reach or the North. If Cersei bumps off Tyrion and blames Sansa, she would have to know she is really just writing her betrothal to some Northern Lord that Tywin picks in order to establish a Lannister sphere of influence directly in the North.

That's not saying I don't think she wants to kill Tyrion. I'm just saying that even she would bide her time long enough get a Lannister heir born in Winterfell before say a drunken Tyrion plunges after a boar with a spear after a couple skins of strongwine...

[PromisedPrince694]

Hello Puff! What an interesting theory. However, I do think that there are a few big problems with this theory.

1) You think that Littlefinger hasn't heard the events from his spies and assumes that it is going down as he says. At the time he tells Sansa, he thinks that his plan to get her out has worked. This is true. However, if he later learns the events of the PW then he may consider a second assassin. There is also the point that LF is...very creepy when it comes to Sansa. He may have already known what had happened. He could have found out more on the voyage to The Fingers and simply not told her more of the story. Because he wants to hit it.

2) Tyrion leaves at exactly the right time and Joffrey runs over to make fun of him. Too coincidental. Joffrey starts to eat the pie but Cersei does nothing? IF Cersei had poisoned the pie (it would have to be planned very carefully) then there is no way her attention wouldn't have been on Tyrion's pie. She would have acted out of desperation and gone over and done something as soon as Joff touched the pie.

3) The Tyrells seem too altruistic. The possibility of saving a maiden from a "monster" like Tyrion would appeal to Mace Tyrell, who considers himself a great warrior. This would not work on his mother. OR Margaery and her mother. Margaery is in a position to get what House Tyrell desires, more power and an heir to the crown seems imminent. Why then, would Olenna and Alerie, assist Margaery in rescuing Sansa? It has no purpose other than that it might raise the North. The risk vs reward is much too high.

4) There is no indication in any Cersei chapter to suggest that she tried to poison Tyrion and accidentally killed Joffrey. Now, your reasons are well thought out and structured in a believable sequence, but it just seems too unlikely. She does have PTSD, I believe, but it would be much worse if she actually killed Joffrey. I think that she does genuinely believe that Tyrion killed him, however. Not as a result of him being shamed by Joff, but as a result of the "your joy will turn to ashes" line from ACOK. Is she just trying to get rid of the valonqar early? Maybe. But she does have another little brother who came out after her, clutching her heel. She would never consider the possibility that Jaime may kill her. The prophecy says strangulation and Jaime has one hand. It seems likely that she would devote her time to bringing down Tyrion and this is a basis for thinking that she tried to poison him at the wedding? No. She does make some stupid decisions after she assumes the Recency but trying to kill her brother at her son's wedding feast seems a far stretch. She would probably have gotten one of the Kettleblacks to kill him, a tactic she seems to enjoy. And let's assume that she DOES try to poison Tyrion at the feast and that he DOES die...the suspicion would immediately fall on Joff, who would probably get away with it because he's King. Tywin may take some issue but whatever, Joff would get away with it in this hypothetical scenario. The blame would fall on him for the exact reason that it falls on Tyrion, mutual contact with Mace Tyrell's wedding gift. She never once feels guilt about her actions at the PW. It seems unlikely considering Ned's last chapter. GRRM likes to leave some hints and there are none in Cersei's POV.

5) Sancide. No. NO. Why would she carry the poison on her hair if she meant to kill herself? Someone like Pycelle may have noticed. This is the one part of your idea that seems like 100% speculation.

A very interesting theory but it requires a bit too much suspension of disbelief. Also I think it is good to think of LF as a genius player of the Game who is never wrong because it makes him much more dangerous and scary.

[Little Balerion]

This makes the Lannisters kinslayers

[PromisedPrince694]

This makes the Lannisters kinslayers

Yes, more. Tyrion is already a kinslayer. Unless you believe that Aerys II is his father ^_^ ^_^ ;)