A question: Is the luck of a Lannister a real thing, or just part of their boogeyman aura?

[Barty]

First of all Robb is not offering a million dollars, Balon has to do all the work and take all the risk. There is no actual offer, but a desperate plea to help, compare that with the tangible gifts the Lannisters offer the Reach to join their cause.

Secondly it's a matter of perspective; this million dollars is heavily guarded while the ice cream truck* has its doors wide open with its keys left in and owners unable to get back in

*I love how the North goes from being as worthless as an ice cream truck in some threads to a formidable untapped power house in others.

Heavily Guarded?? What army remained in the west after the defeat of Stafford??

As for the offer - Robb was offering him something Balon wanted and could not get on his own or even with Tywin Lannister - Freedom. Independence from the IT and a strong ally on land and the riches of the west was what Robb offered Balon, and try as he might to please Tywin - The Lannisters cannot meet, much less beat this offer.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Heavily Guarded?? What army remained in the west after the defeat of Stafford??

As for the offer - Robb was offering him something Balon wanted and could not get on his own or even with Tywin Lannister - Freedom. Independence from the IT and a strong ally on land and the riches of the west was what Robb offered Balon, and try as he might to please Tywin - The Lannisters cannot meet, much less beat this offer.

Robb himself claims that he does not have the manpower to take either Casterly Rock or Lannisport, Tywin is not going to leave his power based exposed to attack from either the North or the Iron Islands so it is safe to assume they were well guarded.

Robb is not offering independence he is telling Balon to take it for himself. There is no offer as he does not need Robbs permission to claim independence.

All he is offering is friendship, not money, land or power. He is giving no offer to help Balon keep or defend this Westernland.

The one thing he offers is to be an ally but that is only dependant on Robb actually winning. Tywin has pretty much been the defacto winner in Westeros for the past 40 years, why would Balon bet on a longshot like Robb.

[Minsc]

The one thing he offers is to be an ally but that is only dependant on Robb actually winning. Tywin has pretty much been the defacto winner in Westeros for the past 40 years, why would Balon bet on a longshot like Robb.

Because Balon's own actions depend on Tywin being the loser, seeing how Tywin wasn't going to allow Balon to have his independence if his cause is victorious.

[Barty]

Robb himself claims that he does not have the manpower to take either Casterly Rock or Lannisport, Tywin is not going to leave his power based exposed to attack from either the North or the Iron Islands so it is safe to assume they were well guarded.

Robb is not offering independence he is telling Balon to take it for himself. There is no offer as he does not need Robbs permission to claim independence.

All he is offering is friendship, not money, land or power. He is giving no offer to help Balon keep or defend this Westernland.

The one thing he offers is to be an ally but that is only dependant on Robb actually winning. Tywin has pretty much been the defacto winner in Westeros for the past 40 years, why would Balon bet on a longshot like Robb.

Is Casterly Rock and Lannisport the only places rich enough to raid in the west?? There are goldmines everywhere and plenty of castles to take apart from CR(all of which are undefended) and Robb and Balon together probably do have enough strength to take out Lannisport at least.

Robb is offering him the opportunity to become independent - Last time Balon failed was because he had no allies and westeros was united, this time Robb is offering him a broken westeros(which only remains broken if Robb wins) as well as the alliance of both the North and the riverlands.

Also I dont think you understand the enormity of Balon's stupidity. Had he decided to aid Tywin in return for some reward then it would be logical, had he decided to help Robb and declare independence then it would be logical, however he does none of that - he decides to make an enemy of Robb by attacking the North and make an enemy of Tywin by declaring independence and claiming half the Kingdom. Instead of choosing one ally and one enemy or staying out of it entirely he chooses two enemies.

[Roland Deschain of Gilead]

The biggest bits of "Lannister luck" for me are:

-Cersei's stupid as shit plan to kill Robert working at the time it did.

-Ned not telling Robert on his deathbed about the twincest

-Ned WARNING Cersei

-Ned not taking up Renly's offer

-LF killing Jon arryn

-The mountain clans not just killing Tyrion and Bronn on sight

-Theon taking winterfell/Ramsay being batshit mental.

-Shadow babies

All of these things manage to right into their hands exactly when they need to. Had ANY of these things turned out the other way, they would have been pretty Fucked.

Sure, Tywin exploited their luck like a pro, and expounded on it perfectly. But his skill wasn't wholly responsible, had anyone of the Lanisters other than Cersei (and maybe Lancel post crazy faith mode) taken control, the house would have been fine.

[mediterraneo]

I don't feel the Lannisters being particularily "lucky".
The Starks are lucky.
It is quite unusual to have a civil war ending with the winners of it suffering actually MORE casualties than the losers.
A Stark's heir escaped alive the sack and burning of his own castle, twice, while being a paraplegic. A Lann... Baratheon king couldn't excape his wedding feast, because the whole of the court minus his mother and uncle were poisoning him.
A Stark girl was able to kill her way out of two guarded fortresses (killing just boys the first time, killing trained, equipped soldiers with knifes the second) while the Lannister girl wasn't able to get away unscathed from her own travelmates, while going with her Kingsguard knight.
The the most vicious of the Lannister's hounds were actually saving Arya from the second Stark massacre she was able to put herself in, and she survived again.
Renly's assassination is not due to Tywinn's luck, it is due to Stannis's hypocrisy and Melisandre's necromancy.
Balon's new rebellion is due to his worlds views and Robb's short sight in releasing his only son. Balon, winning his war, has helped the Lannister win the kingdom, it will be difficult for Tywinn to explain his vassals they have to march to a motte in the deep of the woods in winter to regain it to the crown.
The Tyrrell's alliance is not luck: it is a bargain. The crown has something the Tyrrell want both in the material and in the emotinal: vengeance and a throne.
The Frey betrayal is not luck: it is again a short sighted decision of the opposition. A king that cannot stay true to his word... Well, it was his mother's word in effect. The Karstark betrayal is more lucky. Tywinn would say that a general unable to deal with his men is responsible, but I will be more comprensive towards Robb. Bolton wouldn't. But Bolton is playing with his own life and his men's, in the same situation, so I will be comprensive with him too: no luck there. There is no luck in the "lucky" setback of Lannister's military in the Riverlands either. Edmure followed the orders Robb gave him and "hold Riverrun and protect my back". They couldn't force their way through a readied and terrain aware combat force that was aware of their strategic needs. And Tywinn was wise enough not to insist too much on that, while news of why it was better to spare forces were on the way. It was actually a serious reverse of fortune the way in which the Baratheon brothers DIDN'T blood their armies when they tried and they united the most of their cavalries to charge on King's Landing, while Tywinn was on the move.
Two Lannister hands killed by crossbows in the middle of their own central fortress, the most secure place in the earth for them. A Lann...Baratheon king poisoned in the very same fortress. To a total of two Stark killed in three different sacks, in which a total of eight Starks were present (Ned, Sansa, Arya in KL, Bran and RIckon in Winterfell, Robb and Arya at the Twins).
Should we add a Lannister heir maimed by his father's sellswords or should we forget that?
Lannister luck? Seriously?

[The Frosted King]

I don't feel the Lannisters being particularily "lucky".

The Starks are lucky.

It is quite unusual to have a civil war ending with the winners of it suffering actually MORE casualties than the losers.

A Stark's heir escaped alive the sack and burning of his own castle, twice, while being a paraplegic. A Lann... Baratheon king couldn't excape his wedding feast, because the whole of the court minus his mother and uncle were poisoning him.

A Stark girl was able to kill her way out of two guarded fortresses (killing just boys the first time, killing trained, equipped soldiers with knifes the second) while the Lannister girl wasn't able to get away unscathed from her own travelmates, while going with her Kingsguard knight.

The the most vicious of the Lannister's hounds were actually saving Arya from the second Stark massacre she was able to put herself in, and she survived again.

Renly's assassination is not due to Tywinn's luck, it is due to Stannis's hypocrisy and Melisandre's necromancy.

Balon's new rebellion is due to his worlds views and Robb's short sight in releasing his only son. Balon, winning his war, has helped the Lannister win the kingdom, it will be difficult for Tywinn to explain his vassals they have to march to a motte in the deep of the woods in winter to regain it to the crown.

The Tyrrell's alliance is not luck: it is a bargain. The crown has something the Tyrrell want both in the material and in the emotinal: vengeance and a throne.

The Frey betrayal is not luck: it is again a short sighted decision of the opposition. A king that cannot stay true to his word... Well, it was his mother's word in effect. The Karstark betrayal is more lucky. Tywinn would say that a general unable to deal with his men is responsible, but I will be more comprensive towards Robb. Bolton wouldn't. But Bolton is playing with his own life and his men's, in the same situation, so I will be comprensive with him too: no luck there. There is no luck in the "lucky" setback of Lannister's military in the Riverlands either. Edmure followed the orders Robb gave him and "hold Riverrun and protect my back". They couldn't force their way through a readied and terrain aware combat force that was aware of their strategic needs. And Tywinn was wise enough not to insist too much on that, while news of why it was better to spare forces were on the way. It was actually a serious reverse of fortune the way in which the Baratheon brothers DIDN'T blood their armies when they tried and they united the most of their cavalries to charge on King's Landing, while Tywinn was on the move.

Two Lannister hands killed by crossbows in the middle of their own central fortress, the most secure place in the earth for them. A Lann...Baratheon king poisoned in the very same fortress. To a total of two Stark killed in three different sacks, in which a total of eight Starks were present (Ned, Sansa, Arya in KL, Bran and RIckon in Winterfell, Robb and Arya at the Twins).

Should we add a Lannister heir maimed by his father's sellswords or should we forget that?

Lannister luck? Seriously?

You're missing the point.

Stannis attacking his brother rather than allowing Renly to take the capital and then shadow babying him is a gift for the Lannisters cause.

It's as if in WW2, rather than the allies coming together to defeat Hitler, America invades on behalf of France, but Britain attacks the USA, Russia does nothing and Hitler wins western Europe.

Shit would be the definition of retarded.

[Fat Mac]

I don't understand the concept of "Lannister luck." Lots of variables happen that's outside every bodies control, but GRRM explains them with the characters he writes' personalities.

The following examples

-Ned warning Cersei: Not really lucky since Ned is an honorable man. The five hundred or so pages preceding this meeting all said so. He felt honor bound to tell Cersei. Not really lucky. It's not like Cersei surrounded her plan 100% on the possibility that Ned would actually come to her, and was relieved when he did.

-Balon attacking the North. It was always going to happen. Why? Because the North is such a valuable target? No, because Balon wanted to attack someone and I'd find it hard to believe that he was not afraid of Tywin Lannister. It makes sense that that happened within the context of the story because Balon was always set up to have independence on his mind. And in that case, who do you attack; the region that, while richer, has a tested strong leader and a strong relationship to the crown? Or the region that has recently lost it's strong leader, and is at open war against the crown?

-Stannis going after Renly first. This makes sense given Stannis' personality. He feels like he's always been slighted by his brothers, and he didn't have a strong enough force to take KL. So naturally, he goes after Renly first. The shadow baby is a bit of a deus ex machina, but worked much better in Stannis' favor than it did the Lannisters.

The Lannister's success can be attributed to many things. But all in all, they were in a much better position to start with than the Starks in the story. They more wealthy, more powerful, more proud, more feared. It's quite honestly a combination of these four things, mixed with the personalities and characteristics of their enemies, that led them to have as much "luck" as they did in the WoFK. The luckiest of the Lannisters I'd say is Tyrion, who by and large should have been dead in the dirt in the Battle of the Greek Fork.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

You're missing the point.

Stannis attacking his brother rather than allowing Renly to take the capital and then shadow babying him is a gift for the Lannisters cause.

It's as if in WW2, rather than the allies coming together to defeat Hitler, America invades on behalf of France, but Britain attacks the USA, Russia does nothing and Hitler wins western Europe.

Shit would be the definition of retarded.

How does Stannis take the throne if Renly and the Tyrells have already won it? Do you really expect Mace and the Reach, after they've done the hard work, to simply give it up to Stannis and the Florents?

[The Frosted King]

How does Stannis take the throne if Renly and the Tyrells have already won it? Do you really expect Mace and the Reach, after they've done the hard work, to simply give it up to Stannis and the Florents?

The same could be said of Stannis trying to hold the south with twenty thousand men.

[mediterraneo]

Nah, if Renly had taken the capital before dieing Margaery would have been "already pregnant" and someone would have done the deed for her to publicly give birth under a tent somewhere in public (the emperor Frederick the II was born like this) and if that proved impossible Margaery would have shared room with some pregnant girl to give birth and provide a "rightful" heir to the Tyrrell cause until Stannis demise, Robb's thankful retreat north and some kind of negotiate with Casterly Rock, maybe including some territorial givings to celebrate the Lannister's defeat. Probably Golden Tooth and a Reach's wife to the Tully, to have Edmure more in debt with the new Crown than to Robb.
No luck: Stannis correctly noticed that he had to conquer the capital himself, and to do that he had to win the men that his brother was able to munster.

I'd like to be enlighted to why I miss points in what I said before, but that's not THAT important I believe.

PS: on the WW2 analogy, take care, british ships did shoot on french ones at a point...