Balon Greyjoy, the worst strategist ever?

[Sullen]

Nope, declaring independence might have worked... but ONLY if he joined sides with Robb! His alliance was right there. Two breakaway kingdoms fighting side by side would've greatly increased the likelihood of both surviving their declarations of independence. Balon instead decided to stab his only friend on the continent in the back, attacking a huge region which he could NOT hold in the long term, even with Moat Cailin in his hands. Balon SHOULD have hit the Westerlands with all he had alongside Robb, as the two of them would have taken Lannisport/Casterly Rock, fatally weakening Tywin and, by that token, the Iron Throne itself.

In fact, Balon and Robb should've taken it even further... encouraging Dorne, the Reach and the Vale to become independent as well! A complete decentralization of Westeros, with each seceding region entering an alliance with the others to prevent the IT from conquering any of them. They would've been unstoppable together.

If you think the Iron Isles can stay independent as long as there is an Iron Throne, you are direly mistaken. The goal of declaring independence is to re-ignite the Old Ways, which pretty means he'll need to go at war with either the North or the Iron Throne. No one sitting on the Throne would ever allow that to happen, and once ships are sent to Pyke to take care of Balon, the Ironborn stand alone against the combined might of whatever regions still make up the Seven Kingdoms. The North cannot help defend the Iron Islands, as its (tiny) navy is on the other side of the continent.

As for Dorne, the Reach, and the Vale, they don't care for independence. Doran wants to sit a Targ on the Throne, while the Tyrells want a Tyrell Queen, the Vale is perfectly content being part of the Seven Kingdoms. Basing your alliance on the hopes that the other Kingdoms would revolt and that the rebelling teenage lord turns out to be a genius is like playing the lottery, the stakes are huge, the chances of winning are abysmal.

Attacking the North had a considerably better risk/reward ratio, and that's why he jumped on the opportunity.

Declaring independence was, as should not be forgotten, incredibly foolish, by far his biggest mistake. But then again, Balon was never opposed to bending the knee when things got dire, as he taught his daughter.

[JC Denton]

One more thing, wouldn't Balon allying with Robb just hand the Iron Throne to Stannis? Presumably with the Lannisters and Tyrells weakened then Stannis could have won the battle of Blackwater. And things for Balon would be even worse with Stannis as king. He's the one person who would never allow any part of his kingdom to secede.

And he have the North as a ally, presumably.

By attacking the North, Balon multiplied his enemies, with no good reason other than revenge. The North would have supported the Iron Islands independence (because thats exactly what they were doing)

I also get the feeling, that the Iron Islands simply don't have the man power to hold any land in Westeros. Looking at the map, they are tiny compared to the North, the Riverlands, the Westerlands, the Reach, etc. Its already a stretch that they would be have the wealth to build threatening navy; thinking they could actually match any region in Westeros in manpower is an even bigger suspension of disbelief.

[Usrnmhsnomning]

Huh?? Before Balon's death there were at least 5,000 Ironborn at Moat Cailin. Probably more. The entire Iron Fleet was parked there

And Robb found out about Balons death and guessed Victarion would leave to challenge for the Iron Islands throne.

“Succession squabbles or no, the ironborn are not such fools as to abandon Moat Cailin,” said Lady Maege.

“No,” Robb admitted. “Victarion will leave the best part of his garrison, I’d guess. Every man he takes will be one less man we need to fight, however. And he will take many of his captains, count on that. The leaders. He wil need such men to speak for him if he hopes to sit the Seastone Chair.”

How many did Victarion leave? How many were whittled away by the crannogmen alone? 63 is the number Theon comes across. Did Victarion leave half of that 5000? One fifth? Did he leave 500 men? Because guess what? Whatever number he left was reduced to 63 by the crannogmen alone. I really fail to see how whatever number Victarion left had any hope of defending an assault of at least 2000 (and counting the Umbers, Mormonts, Manderlys, and Clan numbers from ADwD, close to 10,000) from the north after it's made repeatedly clear that Moat Cailin is vulnerable to attack from the north. Even Robbs plan is about attacking Moat Cailin from the north and the west, with the Greatjon leading a distraction from the south. Robb was heading north regardless of whether or not he needed to reclaim Moat Cailin so using his plan to reclaim it as a sweeping "therefore the North was too weak to take Moat Cailin alone" is just a sad joke. The Ironborn were getting their cans kicked all over the place in most straight-up fights. They couldn't hold what they took when Rodrik showed up, and it's only because Rodrik and his army was murdered that the Ironborn outside of Winterfell were able to retake and briefly hold their gains.

[Barty]

What does that have to do with what I said. I said if Rodrick needed help dislodging Theon, and maintaining a siege he could have been sent reinforcements from White Harbour. So there was no need for Robb to go himself. In any case though, levies were summoned from WH to help fight Dagmar. It was plenty practical too, as the point of fortifications is to buy time for a relief force to arrive. You don't respond to attacks on a castle like a yo yo.

Look, if it was easy to remove the ironborn from the Moat Robb would have sent the forces still in the north to do it. It really is that simple. Any other view makes Robb look a fool, as he'd have planned to assault, needlessly, a hitherto impregnable fortification, when he had a good army on the other side!

The ironborn were only known to be at the Moat, Deepwood, WF and raiding the Stony Shore (no remedy for the last, as no ships). No one denies Rodrick could have retaken WF if not for Ramsay, so that leaves the Moat. Rodrick is in a much better position to take it back, as he's on the right side of it, and it needs a very daring military operation to get north of it, from the south. So, the fact Robb decided to undertake such an operation means the northern forces must have been inadequate to deal with the ironborn.

Rodrik is dead when Robb makes his plan.

He did not worry about retaking the North(knowing the North is strong enough to defend itself) right until Rodrik Cassel was dead. Once Rodrik died and WF was burned there was no central leadership in the North. This is what forced Robb to leave his western campaign and return North. Who could Robb trust to gather the scattered Northmen and assault Moat Cailin?? Wyman Manderly??The man cannot even sit a horse, much less lead an attack. Ramsay Snow??They guy is a known fugitive and a traitor. The Umbers?? They are too old and are not known to be very bright. The North was in confusion and Robb needed to return to bring back order, not because the North was too weak(we know it was not since in ADwD we see that there are plenty of fighters still left in the North).

[Barty]

Safer to take fishing villages and small castles from undefended lords in open rebellion to the Throne and led by a green boy than attack one of the strongest fortresses on the continent (A castle and city that belong to one of the most dangerous men in the lands, it needs to be said) while your men have zero siege experience and that no candidate sitting the Iron Throne would ever let you hold, ever.

Balon's stupidity lies in declaring independence, and thus doom all prospects of alliance, not in his choice to attack the North.

He achieves nothing by attacking the North. Can he hold the North against the Northmen in the long term or even the mid term or even through the first winter?? No way. Does he gain enormous wealth by attacking the North?? No. Does he gain allies by attacking the North?? No.

Now compare it to the west - He does not need to follow Robb's plan to the letter - he can raid all over the bloody west without going anywhere near CR and still come out filthy rich. Raid a few goldmines, take over faircastle, Kayce, Feastfires etc. You dont lose anything, gain huge amounts of gold and gain a strong ally in the North and Riverlands. You might even end up getting Independence if the Lannisters are defeated. At this point the Baratheons, Tyrells, Starks and Tullys were all against the Lannisters - so any (sane)man would think its a safe bet to think they are going down. Balon was an idiot.

[Chaircat Meow]

Rodrik is dead when Robb makes his plan.

He did not worry about retaking the North(knowing the North is strong enough to defend itself) right until Rodrik Cassel was dead. Once Rodrik died and WF was burned there was no central leadership in the North. This is what forced Robb to leave his western campaign and return North. Who could Robb trust to gather the scattered Northmen and assault Moat Cailin?? Wyman Manderly??The man cannot even sit a horse, much less lead an attack. Ramsay Snow??They guy is a known fugitive and a traitor. The Umbers?? They are too old and are not known to be very bright. The North was in confusion and Robb needed to return to bring back order, not because the North was too weak(we know it was not since in ADwD we see that there are plenty of fighters still left in the North).

I suggest you reread the end of Cat II SoS. Robb decides to drop the southern campaign and head back North, even though he admits Rodrick is probably just about to recapture WF, saying he might have already done it. He only hears of his disappearance later.

[Barty]

I suggest you reread the end of Cat II SoS. Robb decides to drop the southern campaign and head back North, even though he admits Rodrick is probably just about to recapture WF, saying he might have already done it. He only hears of his disappearance later.

True, my bad.

Re read that chapter and it seems to me that Robb marches North because Catelyn tells him that his first duty is to defend his own people. Still it does not validate your point about the North being too weak to defend itself - Robb marches North because he feels(thanks to Catelyn) that a King's first duty is to defend his own people or else he's no true King at all(and also because there has been no word from the North for a long time, implying there is still much confusion about).

[Mountain Tribesman]

If you think the Iron Isles can stay independent as long as there is an Iron Throne, you are direly mistaken. The goal of declaring independence is to re-ignite the Old Ways, which pretty means he'll need to go at war with either the North or the Iron Throne. No one sitting on the Throne would ever allow that to happen, and once ships are sent to Pyke to take care of Balon, the Ironborn stand alone against the combined might of whatever regions still make up the Seven Kingdoms. The North cannot help defend the Iron Islands, as its (tiny) navy is on the other side of the continent.

It would never come to that because the Ironborn and the Northmen together would have been able to hold off almost any IT attack. During the Greyjoy Rebellion, they were defeated because their fleet was trapped and destroyed by Stannis, who was now fighting against the IT, on the other side of Westeros, drawing off the Tyrell fleets who were the only threat to the Iron Islands. And even facing them, the Ironborn stood a fair chance of winning since they were even more able sailors. Between their naval supremacy and the North's control of Moat Cailin, they could've stood independent against the IT in the long term. Especially if they controlled parts of the Riverlands and Westerlands as well.

As for Dorne, the Reach, and the Vale, they don't care for independence. Doran wants to sit a Targ on the Throne, while the Tyrells want a Tyrell Queen, the Vale is perfectly content being part of the Seven Kingdoms. Basing your alliance on the hopes that the other Kingdoms would revolt and that the rebelling teenage lord turns out to be a genius is like playing the lottery, the stakes are huge, the chances of winning are abysmal.

The Vale lords wanted to go to war against the Iron Throne alongside the Tullys and Starks, while Dorne hated Tywin almost as much. At the very least, some sort of temporary secession from the current IT would have been easy to get out of both, until a good candidate to the throne shows up (Aegon, Dany).

As for the Tyrells, it's true that their ambition was to put a queen on the throne. However, if they sensed that Lannister power was declining and they were in danger from an impending Ironborn/Northmen assault, the Tyrells might have dropped their support and gone towards secession too: their country was arguably the wealthiest in Westeros and an alliance with the up-and-coming Ironborn would've been the only way to keep it safe.

Attacking the North had a considerably better risk/reward ratio, and that's why he jumped on the opportunity.

Was it though? The risk wasn't big in and of itself, they could have fallen back if things got bad, but the reward was negligible, and politically it was foolish: Balon spat on the ONLY continental lord to offer him an alliance. You're right that the Iron Islands can't maintain independence, but only if they go against everyone in Westeros, making their defeat inevitable and only a matter of time until the others have stopped being too busy to invade the Iron Islands. But with continental allies, he stood a fair chance of holding out.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

True, my bad.

Re read that chapter and it seems to me that Robb marches North because Catelyn tells him that his first duty is to defend his own people. Still it does not validate your point about the North being too weak to defend itself - Robb marches North because he feels(thanks to Catelyn) that a King's first duty is to defend his own people or else he's no true King at all(and also because there has been no word from the North for a long time, implying there is still much confusion about).

But Robb is not simply going to coordinate the troops, he is taking both of his two Northern armies back North and IIRC even includes the Frey troops in his plans for retaking his realm. He not only needs his entire army but also Riverland troops despite the fact that the Iron Throne is free to focus their forces back on the Trident.

[Usrnmhsnomning]

But Robb is not simply going to coordinate the troops, he is taking both of his two Northern armies back North and IIRC even includes the Frey troops in his plans for retaking his realm. He not only needs his entire army but also Riverland troops despite the fact that the Iron Throne is free to focus their forces back on the Trident.

What's your point? Because it certainly still fails to validate the claim the North couldn't defend itself bar Bolton treachery.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

What's your point? Because it certainly still fails to validate the claim the North couldn't defend itself bar Bolton treachery.

Three poiunts:

Deepwood motte, Stony Shore, Tohrrens square and initially Winterfell were all took without the help of Bolton treachery.

Robb is not aware of Bolton treachery but his plans to retake the North from the Ironborn includes the assistant of a few thousand Riverland troops.

It has been suggested in this thread that there were more than enough troops still in the North for them to repel the Ironborn themselves. Blatentley this is not true as a) it doesnt happen in the books and b) Robb feels the need to take all his Northern troops back home despite it being a critical point in the War.

[Usrnmhsnomning]

Three poiunts:

Deepwood motte, Stony Shore, Tohrrens square and initially Winterfell were all took without the help of Bolton treachery.

Rodrik proves the Ironborn can't hold them against a force 2000 strong when he beat Dagmar and reclaimed Deepwood Motte.

Incorrect, his plans to retake Moat Cailin involved Riverland troops but as has been shown and proven even Robbs entire force was not necessary to reclaim Moat Cailin; the Crannogs almost did it alone.

[Mountain Tribesman]

It has been suggested in this thread that there were more than enough troops still in the North for them to repel the Ironborn themselves. Blatentley this is not true as a) it doesnt happen in the books and B) Robb feels the need to take all his Northern troops back home despite it being a critical point in the War.

There were more than enough troops... until Bolton's bastard decided to have his Dreadfort army attack the rest of the Northern army outside Winterfell, slaughtering it. When an army starts destroying most of itself on its own, that sort of reduces its size and effectiveness.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

There were more than enough troops... until Bolton's bastard decided to have his Dreadfort army attack the rest of the Northern army outside Winterfell, slaughtering it. When an army starts destroying most of itself on its own, that sort of reduces its size and effectiveness.

But Robb is not aware of this and yet his master plan to retake the North involves, not only all of his Northern troops, but using Riverland troops as well. This is Robbs plan despite it leaving the Riverlands in the lurch.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Moat Cailin garrison estimate:

10 ships left (the Dustins and Ryswells succeed in burning them) and these ships are thrice the size of 60 man longships 60*3*10=1,800±200 assuming only a few hundred were killed defending the anchored ships that means about 1,500 died of starvation, exposure or guerrilla attacks at Moat Cailin, not a promising figure for Victarion maintaining his occupation.

[Universal Sword Donor]

Moat Cailin garrison estimate:

10 ships left (the Dustins and Ryswells succeed in burning them) and these ships are thrice the size of 60 man longships 60*3*10=1,800±200 assuming only a few hundred were killed defending the anchored ships that means about 1,500 died of starvation, exposure or guerrilla attacks at Moat Cailin, not a promising figure for Victarion maintaining his occupation.

That number seems really, really high, and where are you getting ten longships from?

[Trickrs]

That number seems really, really high, and where are you getting ten longships from?

Victarion left 10 per cent of the iron fleet at MC when he goes to the Kingsmoot.

[King of Vaes Tolorro]

Let me ask you all one question.

How many Kings are there?

3.

One on the Iron Throne, one in the Wall, and One on the Sea stone Chair.

Where is the King of the North? Where is the King of the Flowers?

WHere is the Queen of Mereen?

[Universal Sword Donor]

Victarion left 10 per cent of the iron fleet at MC when he goes to the Kingsmoot.

Okay I found the longships reference ( ... nine-tenths of the IF, sailing on the evening tide...)

That number still seems pretty high though. Most of the estimates I've seen for the IF manpower puts it at about 10,000, based off Theon's ship. I don't think Vic would be leaving near 2000 men behind, especially given the numbers that are left when Theon has them surrender. Even with a sizable contingent guarding the ships, the towers would overrun with corpses, not just a lot laying around like we see now. Plus keeping 2K men there would likely outstrip the ability of the IB to keep them supplied. They are still drinking ale when Theon shows up.

[Stannis's Lawyer]

Okay I found the longships reference ( ... nine-tenths of the IF, sailing on the evening tide...)

That number still seems pretty high though. Most of the estimates I've seen for the IF manpower puts it at about 10,000, based off Theon's ship. I don't think Vic would be leaving near 2000 men behind, especially given the numbers that are left when Theon has them surrender. Even with a sizable contingent guarding the ships, the towers would overrun with corpses, not just a lot laying around like we see now. Plus keeping 2K men there would likely outstrip the ability of the IB to keep them supplied. They are still drinking ale when Theon shows up.

The Iron Fleet has 20,000 men.