Balon Greyjoy, the worst strategist ever?

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

50000 seems a bit much for the north.

I was thinking around 38000-44000

That's (roughly) the consensus, I'd estimate 35-40,000 fighting men (though some might be less than perfect) obviously if every able bodied man was pressed into service the number would be many times greater than this.

There are some however who seem to think that the northmen would have needed 10,000's of soldiers to take back the fairly weak castles they lost, and that there would be great difficulty in raising this number.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Okay I found the longships reference ( ... nine-tenths of the IF, sailing on the evening tide...)

That number still seems pretty high though. Most of the estimates I've seen for the IF manpower puts it at about 10,000, based off Theon's ship. I don't think Vic would be leaving near 2000 men behind, especially given the numbers that are left when Theon has them surrender. Even with a sizable contingent guarding the ships, the towers would overrun with corpses, not just a lot laying around like we see now. Plus keeping 2K men there would likely outstrip the ability of the IB to keep them supplied. They are still drinking ale when Theon shows up.

It is mystifying how they ever fed a large garrison of Moat Cailin, certainly not through forage.

1,800 men was probably the upper bound, regardless there would have still been at least close to a thousand men there, which means 5-600 hundred deaths in the 2-3 (complete guess, but from the timeline I doubt it is much more than that) months between Victarion leaving and Theon arriving, not a promising number for the Ironborn.

[Stannis's Lawyer]

That's (roughly) the consensus, I'd estimate 35-40,000 fighting men (though some might be less than perfect) obviously if every able bodied man was pressed into service the number would be many times greater than this.

There are some however who seem to think that the northmen would have needed 10,000's of soldiers to take back the fairly weak castles they lost, and that there would be great difficulty in raising this number.

That's not the consensus. The consensus, as espoused by our army specialists such as Bright Blue Eyes and Free Northmen Reborn, is that the North has about 65,000 soldiers.

[Viking]

Ned Stark comes along pays the Iron Price for Pyke itself and then gives it back as if it didn't mean anything.

Balon Greyjoy is broken and defeated and unlike proper Iron Born like Dagmer Cleftjaw he doesn't go down fighting he bends the knee like a craven and to save his measly life he gives up his last son to Stark. Stark paid the Iron Price for Theon.

Then Robb not only gives him his son back but also offers to give him a Kingdom, what Ned paid the Iron Price for.

Of course Balon was humiliated. He was shamed in the worst way an Iron Born can be. To have any self respect Balon needs to pay the Iron price for his Throne and his Son. Thats why he doesn't treat Theon well at all, he still belongs to Stark, who paid the Iron Price for him. This is why he suicidally attacks the north instead of the Lannisters becaue he needs to pay the Iron price for the Seastone chair.

All the stupid things he does do in the books are done to regain his credibility, status and honor.

I posted this in a different thread on a similar issue. Balon is not thinking strategically or logically. In his mind the first step to reclaiming his kingdom is redeeming his lost honor. He lost honor to the Starks and Baratheons. He did not lose honor to the Lannisters. They burned the Lannister Fleet at Lannisport. Stannis beat the Iron Fleet, Robert knocked down the walls of Pyke and Ned took his son.The first step in restoring the old ways is to restore the lost honor of the Greyjoys.

[Chaircat Meow]

That's not the consensus. The consensus, as espoused by our army specialists such as Bright Blue Eyes and Free Northmen Reborn, is that the North has about 65,000 soldiers.

There is no consensus but lots of us (inc Ran) do not agree with those figures.

[Trickrs]

If the North had all this people sitting back while the Ironborn ravaged, why didn't they rise up?

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

That's not the consensus. The consensus, as espoused by our army specialists such as Bright Blue Eyes and Free Northmen Reborn, is that the North has about 65,000 soldiers.

Are they army specialists? What reading into the subject have they done?

[joluoto2]

The only smart thing Balon could have done is do nothing. No matter which direction he attacked, the Ironborn would always get slaughtered onece the dust settled and the other kings had ended their war. No one likes the Iron Islands, and everyone would be happy to attack them. Balon should have learned that the first time he rebelled, when he thought the Realm was splintered and not fully healed from Robert' Rebellion, instead Robert managed to unite the Realm in their common hatred of the Ironborn.

[Universal Sword Donor]

That's not the consensus. The consensus, as espoused by our army specialists such as Bright Blue Eyes and Free Northmen Reborn, is that the North has about 65,000 soldiers.

FNR, Lord Reaver, and BBE are where I got my number for the Iron Fleet.

[Stannis's Lawyer]

FNR, Lord Reaver, and BBE are where I got my number for the Iron Fleet.

Really? Because I can remember BBE and Lord Reaver (FNR has admitted he's not an Ironborn specialist) saying the IF had around 20,000 men.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

That's not the consensus. The consensus, as espoused by our army specialists such as Bright Blue Eyes and Free Northmen Reborn, is that the North has about 65,000 soldiers.

Have 30k of them gone on holiday?

[Universal Sword Donor]

Really? Because I can remember BBE and Lord Reaver (FNR has admitted he's not an Ironborn specialist) saying the IF had around 20,000 men.

I skimmed back through a couple of IB threads, admitted that I posted in, and the numbers they were throwing out 100 ships w 10K men. There were some scattered references to 100+ men per ship or 12k-15K, but I didn't see any of them toss out 20K. I'd be on board with 12K, 15k is stretching it a bit, and I don't even think the IB are as weak as a lot of posters seem to assume.

Also remembered that Vic took 93 ships with him to Mereen, so the actual number of ships left behind is probably 7-10 of the weakest ships, as Theon's narrative of the Codds and forces left behind isn't exactly complimentary.

[Barty]

Have 30k of them gone on holiday?

They are there but they have no one to lead them. Look at the Mountain clans - 4k soldiers sitting around and doing nothing till someone came to lead them. The only leaders who bothered trying to raise men in the North found them easily enough - Ramsay, Rodrik, Stannis etc each managed to raise a few thousand in little time.

PS - 65k might be a bit optimistic. I'd go with 50k. With about 18k lost(14k in the south and the remaining killed by IB and Ramsay). I guess the remaining Bolton men are about to die as well - that would bring the number upto 20-25k dead and 20-25k left(probably of slightly inferior quality).

[RainGhost]

Balon was not the greatest strategist. His plan to attack the north was not necessarily a bad idea - it was good tactically but only good strategically if his endgame was the same as Asha's. I think Asha saw that the Ironborn were never going to conquer the north but knew Balon wouldn't want to admit that. She treated the Glovers well and was furious when Theon 'killed' Bran and Rickon because that ruined her plans. I think Asha wanted to present her idea to Balon when they started to lose. It would have been a win-win situation for everyone: Balon gets his vengeance, the Ironborn get land but in a way that soothes Balon's pride because they paid the iron price for it, the north get the alliance they want and both the north and iron islands have a good shot at staying independent.

Alternatively, he could have just soothed his pride by demanding land in the north as the price of the alliance then got rich in the westerlands, which were wide open and undefended thanks to Robb. This would also have spared the lives and time used up in the invasion of the north. It really was short-sighted to turn down an alliance with and then weaken the only kingdom that was willing to recognise ironborn independence. Did he learn nothing in his first rebellion? Instead of scorning Theon for being too northern and therefore 'weak', he should actually have used Theon's friendship with Robb to the advantage of the Ironborn because nobody else wanted/wants to be their friend.

[Goldstag]

You see, generations of exposure to saltwater, eating nothing but fish and a society that steals everything and makes nothing takes a toll on the ironborn.

In short ironborn are fools.

[Goldstag]

You see, generations of exposure to saltwater, eating nothing but fish and a society that steals everything and makes nothing takes a toll on the ironborn.

In short ironborn are fools. Plus Martin needed filler in the north so dany can sweep in predictably after her mereenese dump

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

An alternative possibility for Balon attacking the north,

Couldn't he have seIzed cape Kraken?

There is only one major castle (obviously there will be others, but we can probably assume that the unlisted castles and holdfasts aren't as strong or important), and once the forces there are defeated the only way for the northmen to retake it is through the neck, through which it is difficult to lead whole armies, or by water, which the Ironborn can stop.

The lands are the southern-most of those in the north, meaning they are probably more fertile and populous, and since the Flints don't seem to make up a huge amount of his army and none of his other major strongholds are under threat Robb probably wouldn't be in much of a hurry to take it back.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Have 30k of them gone on holiday?

Seriously. 65,000 is bonkers