The Might of Skagos

[Free Northman]

I place Skagos in roughly the same category as the Mountain Clans. Meaning around 4000 fighting men altogether. Maybe 5000 at a stretch.

[Kasporio]

If Skagos' inhabitants are hardened survivalists like the bogdevils, the wildlings and the bear islanders, likely women are part of they're military strength.

Skagos climate is likely as harsh as beyond the wall and mostly comprised of moiuntains, the estimated population of wildlings is probably comprised between 50000 and 100000, and their territory is 10 times larger at least. So an overall population of 5000 skagosi seems a fair estimation, albeit very optimistic.

But considering both men and women are capable fighters and the fact that Skagos successfully rebelled and is de facto independant, a skagosi warband wouldn't be easy to defeat.

[Free Northman]

If Skagos' inhabitants are hardened survivalists like the bogdevils, the wildlings and the bear islanders, likely women are part of they're military strength.

Skagos climate is likely as harsh as beyond the wall and mostly comprised of moiuntains, the estimated population of wildlings is probably comprised between 50000 and 100000, and their territory is 10 times larger at least. So an overall population of 5000 skagosi seems a fair estimation, albeit very optimistic.

But considering both men and women are capable fighters and the fact that Skagos successfully rebelled and is de facto independant, a skagosi warband wouldn't be easy to defeat.

Half of Skagos lies south of the Wall, and half of it North of the Wall. Meaning half of it correspondes to the Umber lands, and half of it to the southern extreme of the Haunted Forest.

However, it is an island, and as can be seen by the comparative ice cover of the East and West coasts of the North, the Eastern seaboard is clearly warmed by an ocean current that is much warmer than that of the Sunset Sea. Likely some type of Gulf Stream equivalent. Skagos would be surrounded by this current, and would conduct significant fishing as well, to supplement its food sources, being an island.

I would place the population of Skagos at about a third of that of the Umbers. Meaning there are about 100,000 Skagosi, or thereabouts.

If they have a similar warrior culture to that of the Ironborn, they could raise as much as 5% of that number to arms. Bringing their armed strength to about 5000 warriors.

Their island is at least 5 times larger than all the Iron Islands combined. Yet at 100,000 people, they would have at least 5 times fewer people than the Iron Isles. Giving them a population density about 25 times lower than that of the Iron Isles. Which is sufficiently conservative, in my view.

So 100,000 Skagosi. Raising 4000-5000 warriors from that number would make them very warriorlike indeed, but no more so than the Ironborn.

[Kasporio]

100000 ? They're primitive clansmen, no peniciline, no plenty of food, seas frozen probably often despite your fancy gulf stream theory.

Including death by cold, giving birth, infant mortality, starvation and war... Even around winterfell, as stated by Jon, and in karhold, people dies starving every hard winter.

In a savage island where there is probably few agriculture and the food source being most likely from fishing and goat herds....

You're estimation if very ...greatly... OVERWHELMINGLY overrated.

The population could be 100000 in modern era. Not in the actual Westeros, not in Skagos, with the same level of wealth as the lands beyond the wall.

[Free Northman]

100000 ? They're primitive clansmen, no peniciline, no plenty of food, seas frozen probably often despite your fancy gulf stream theory.

Including death by cold, giving birth, infant mortality, starvation and war... Even around winterfell, as stated by Jon, and in karhold, people dies starving every hard winter.

In a savage island where there is probably few agriculture and the food source being most likely from fishing and goat herds....

You're estimation if very ...greatly... OVERWHELMINGLY overrated.

The population could be 100000 in modern era. Not in the actual Westeros, not in Skagos, with the same level of wealth as the lands beyond the wall.

Skagos is roughly the size of Scotland. 100,000 people would give it a 5 times lower population density than medieval Scotland.

The Umber lands which lie roughly on the same latitude, have between 250,000 and 300,000 people.

The Iron Isles which are 5 times smaller than Skagos, and barren in their own right, have a minimum population of 500,000.

100,000 for Skagos is not unrealistic at all.

EDIT

In fact, Bear Island, which lies in a colder sea, and is many times smaller than Skagos, likely has around 100,000 people, given that they can probably raise around 1000 warriors at a minimum.

[complexphoenix]

I'd guess the men of Skagos are few, but individually strong, since no one lives long in an environment that harsh without being made of tough stuff. So a Skagosi army would punch above its weight. But if Robb's host was initially 20,000 from the whole North, I reckon Skagos couldn't manage more than 3000 at the absolute most. 1500 seems more likely. I suppose a lot depends on how much fish they can pull out of the bay of seals, because they're not likely to eke many crops out of the stony island soil with the climate so cold.

[Rahgh Neqaj]

1. If I was a Skagosi planning an uprising, I'd do so late during summer or during autumn when the autumn storms make the passage for extremely dangerous for the Starks.

Skagos is described as a mountainous island which is very difficult to access. So the Skagosi not only have the advantage of fighting on their home turf, the land is perfect for asymmetric warfare.

In summary you don't need that many Skagosi to kill a Lord Stark and a few hundred of his men. I'd rather take the fact that the Skagosi uprising failed despite inflicting heavy losses on the Starks as a sign that the Starks decimated the Skagosi population to the point where the uprising collapsed due to a lack in numbers.

[Free Northman]

I'd guess the men of Skagos are few, but individually strong, since no one lives long in an environment that harsh without being made of tough stuff. So a Skagosi army would punch above its weight. But if Robb's host was initially 20,000 from the whole North, I reckon Skagos couldn't manage more than 3000 at the absolute most. 1500 seems more likely. I suppose a lot depends on how much fish they can pull out of the bay of seals, because they're not likely to eke many crops out of the stony island soil with the climate so cold.

Here's a nice bit of context for you. Lord Commander Mormont tells Jon that any of Eddard Stark's bannermen can raise more men than the entire Watch. The Watch has 1000 men.

More men than the entire Watch would mean more than 1000 men. We see the Karstarks have raised 3000 so far, the Boltons around 5000 so far etc.

So Bear Island is one of these main bannerhouses to House Stark. This means that they too can raise more men than the entire Watch. So put them at about 1500 men, then.

Bear Island is on the colder side of Westeros, with the completely ice coverd Frozen Shore right next to it. Skagos is on the opposite, warmer side of Westeros, with a tree lined shore on the mainland extending for hundreds of miles north of it. And it is about three times the size of Bear Island.

Hence, logically, it should be able to raise at least 3 times Bear Island's number of men.

Bringing us back to the roughly 4000 number.

[Fire Eater]

I think the Skagosi can raise 5000 swords, and who knows how many unicorns, which could be huge Pleistocene rhinos. They were tough enough to give the Starks a bloody nose.

[Lord Klax Stark]

When I placed the 10k number there, I meant for it to be a bit on the ridiculous end simply to spark debate. All things considered, and in deference to many of the previous posts which I agree with, I'd realistically put their numbers at about 4-6k. That's roughly the size of both the Bolton's and stannis's army, so I think Skagos could certainly be a game changer.

[Erkan12]

Here's a nice bit of context for you. Lord Commander Mormont tells Jon that any of Eddard Stark's bannermen can raise more men than the entire Watch. The Watch has 1000 men.

More men than the entire Watch would mean more than 1000 men. We see the Karstarks have raised 3000 so far, the Boltons around 5000 so far etc.

So Bear Island is one of these main bannerhouses to House Stark. This means that they too can raise more men than the entire Watch. So put them at about 1500 men, then.

Bear Island is on the colder side of Westeros, with the completely ice coverd Frozen Shore right next to it. Skagos is on the opposite, warmer side of Westeros, with a tree lined shore on the mainland extending for hundreds of miles north of it. And it is about three times the size of Bear Island.

Hence, logically, it should be able to raise at least 3 times Bear Island's number of men.

Bringing us back to the roughly 4000 number.

I think Mormont meant only Rangers. That would be 250 or 300... And i don't think they are 1000 either. 700-800 might be.

And i thought Karstark raised 2.300 men, which part in the book Bolton's number revealed ?

[alienarea]

The elephant in the room is why wouldn't Robb assemble all his bannermen and march with full force? And leave Winterfell with better defenses?

[C0bR]

I think the Skagosi can raise 5000 swords, and who knows how many unicorns, which could be huge Pleistocene rhinos. They were tough enough to give the Starks a bloody nose.

Yep, the unicorns would be the most important part of that force.

[The BlackBear]

The elephant in the room is why wouldn't Robb assemble all his bannermen and march with full force? And leave Winterfell with better defenses?

He was in a rush, he didn't have time to assemble everyone, the North is vast, it would have taken ages to get everyone together.

There was a force at Winterfeel as well, Cassel took it to drive the Ironborn off, they were then massacred by Bolton men. White harbour retained a significant number of men to defend the North if need be. And the Glovers (and another house Tallhart? Were tasked with fortifying Moat Cailin.)

As to why he didn't take men from Skagos, it's said that Skagos whilst technically under the North's rule, pretty much governs itself, and the people are left to their own devises.

[Erkan12]

The elephant in the room is why wouldn't Robb assemble all his bannermen and march with full force? And leave Winterfell with better defenses?

He has to hurry since Ned get himself captured and Riverlands in war...

After that, Rodrik try to gathered some more but Greyjoy invasion and Bolton treachery happened.

[Shane the Llama]

The elephant in the room is why wouldn't Robb assemble all his bannermen and march with full force? And leave Winterfell with better defenses?

In addition to the issue of time that others mentioned, there is also the matter of logistics. At a certain point, an army will get diminishing returns for increases in size. It becomes unwieldy and difficult to organize, as well as being to supply properly. With a roughly medieval level of technology, armies would rarely contain much more than about 25,000 soldiers. This is a very rough number of course, as there are many factors to consider, but the basic principle holds true. Look at the Lannister forces: they initially raised close something like 45,000-50,000 soldiers, but never committed that entire number in one battle. They split the army, as a force of 50,000 would be difficult to maneuver with. At that point, it may even become highly dependent on supply lines, rather than being capable of foraging on the move.

[TheonGreyjoy]

I place Skagos in roughly the same category as the Mountain Clans. Meaning around 4000 fighting men altogether. Maybe 5000 at a stretch.

yes, this is just my thought. Around 4000 +/- 1000. I dont think Skagos will be a game changer, but all forces which can be found in the north that will back Jon/Rickon/Stannis is most welcome.

[The BlackBear]

yes, this is just my thought. Around 4000 +/- 1000. I dont think Skagos will be a game changer, but all forces which can be found in the north that will back Jon/Rickon/Stannis is most welcome.

I'm still not convinced they'll follow Rickon that easily, they did fight a rebellion fairly recently, and have always been fiercely independent. The only way I see them joining the rest of the North is against the Others.

[juanml82]

1-2k, but Unicorn Cavalry is at least 5x as effective as normal horse cavalry.

:bowdown: :bowdown:

The elephant in the room is why wouldn't Robb assemble all his bannermen and march with full force? And leave Winterfell with better defenses?

Regarding Skagos, either the Skagosi disobeyed, although that's never mentioned, or Robb didn't ask for them, presumably, due the lack of a seafaring fleet capable of carrying a significant number of people or the time it would consume.

[grand old duke of stark]

I'm still not convinced they'll follow Rickon that easily, they did fight a rebellion fairly recently, and have always been fiercely independent. The only way I see them joining the rest of the North is against the Others.

Perhaps they had Rickon for dinner!

Seriously, the Skagosi sound more like Wildlings than Northmen, and I suspect their fighting style is similar. They fought for their independence in their home territory, but that doesn't mean they'll fight for Starks or for the North. I see them as being more tribal or clan-like, and unlikely to be an army, much less part of a cohesive larger army like Robb's.

However, Winter is upon them; the White Walkers and/or wights may well have come to Skagos, especially in the north. (Yes, it's not clear they can get across water, but who knows?) In any case, if the Skagosi realise they are in peril, they might well join with Northern armies to push back the armies of Winter. If they can contribute a few thousand warriors to that effort, so much the better. In LotR, even the Ents got involved!