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NFL Week 8: End of the Weeden Dynasty


sperry

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Quite possibly. I've just heard a lot of excitement about this class (primarily Bridgewater, Mariota and Hundley) and all the mocks I've seen have 5-7 first round QBs going off the board. I don't think we've seen that number since '99. There's a ton of options out there not even getting into the Derek Carr's of the world. I guess we'll see how many good ones though.

Yeah, but that doesn't mean there really are 5-7 first round QBs. For one, mock drafts at this point are based on little more than air. You don't know who is declaring for the draft, you don't know what team needs will be, and you don't have a clear picture of what the guys can do. On top of that, mock drafts are always click bait, and talking about quarterbacks is both easier and more recognizable than talking about any other position. Even people who only halfheartedly follow college football know who Manziel and Mariota are, so they'll always make it into the mock drafts. Actual NFL scouts need to know if Middle Tennessee State has a great wide receiver, or if theres an all-American wrestler at Penn State who has only played two years of football, but looks like the next great pass rusher, and both those guys could easily be first round picks.

In addition, every year one or two quarterbacks get drafted in the first round that really aren't first round talent. Guys like Christian Ponder and Brandon Weedon get drafted high because in today's NFL, if you don't have a quarterback, you don't have anything. And that means that while there are probably (read: definitely) guys that are safer, better picks, as a GM of a quarterback-needy team, you have to roll the dice on somebody if you want to keep your job. The Jags traded up to get Gabbert, when JJ Watt was still on the board. They could have just stayed where they were and taken Ryan Kerrigan. Both guys have already made the pro bowl. Instead Gene Smith rolled the dice with Gabbert. He was a complete failure, and Smith was fired just a year and a half later. But if he'd made the smart pick and taken either Watt or Kerrigan, would it have made a difference? As dominant as Watt is, he isn't going to lead that Jags team to the playoffs with Trent Edwards at quarterback. So GMs really have a strong incentive to keep making bad picks until they finally get a quarterback.

Overall, we really have no idea how good this qb class will look at draft time, let alone how good they'll be over thier NFL careers. The rumor mill says its a strong year for qbs, but I give that about as much credence as a 15 day weather forecast.

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Quite possibly. I've just heard a lot of excitement about this class (primarily Bridgewater, Mariota and Hundley) and all the mocks I've seen have 5-7 first round QBs going off the board. I don't think we've seen that number since '99. There's a ton of options out there not even getting into the Derek Carr's of the world. I guess we'll see how many good ones though.

Yeah. None of these guys are rated in the matt Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, RGIII, Andrew Luck grade of prospect, though. Bridgewater is the closest thing, and I think he's going #1. I think there's definitely some quality depth, but they are risky guys, and not ones that hsould be going in the first round.

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Yeah. None of these guys are rated in the matt Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, RGIII, Andrew Luck grade of prospect, though. Bridgewater is the closest thing, and I think he's going #1. I think there's definitely some quality depth, but they are risky guys, and not ones that hsould be going in the first round.

Maybe. If those 5 QBs came out this year, I think it'd go Luck, RG3, Bridgewater, Stafford, Newton, Bradford.

Fairly sure most people have Bridgewater on the RG3 level of prospect which is up there on the scale. I'm not really sure on Mariota because of his experience. Hundley would be behind all of them.

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Yeah. None of these guys are rated in the matt Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, RGIII, Andrew Luck grade of prospect, though. Bridgewater is the closest thing, and I think he's going #1. I think there's definitely some quality depth, but they are risky guys, and not ones that hsould be going in the first round.
Not sure of that. Mariota is challenging Bridgewater for #1 right now in a lot of scout's eyes. Great accuracy + great athleticism is a pretty potent mix in the NFL; that he has done nothing but rock in his career helps quite a bit too.


Also, Breaking Madden with 44 Greg Schianos is about the best thing ever.


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Overall, we really have no idea how good this qb class will look at draft time, let alone how good they'll be over thier NFL careers. The rumor mill says its a strong year for qbs, but I give that about as much credence as a 15 day weather forecast.

I mostly agree. I mean if you look how the 2012 draft was initially hyped it was Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley and Landry Jones as the clear first round guys. Though as the 2011 season evolved RGIII stole all of the Barkley hype as the new 1A guy and Weeden/Tannehill's stock climbed as Jones' fell. And last year's draft had a bunch of guys who were passingly intriguing at different times. Guys like Tyler Wilson and MIke Glennon had moments of being trotted out as future first rounders. Hell Geno Smith had virtually an entire season as one. So yeah you're absolutely right that the NFL doesn't work out that way most of the time.

QBs get hyped and then the actual draft evaluation process exposing all kinds of red flags we gloss over when we just see them lighting up Saturdays. A lot of these mocks have Manziel as a top 6 pick but at his size and level of arm strength I remain skeptical.

But it also works the other way too. There are guys scouts fall in love with as the process goes on. I don't recall anyone having EJ Manuel, Blaine Gabbert or Christian Ponder as first rounders until we got into the silly season. But you take a Manuel who interviews really well or coaches getting to see Gabbert's luxuriant golden locks for the first time in person and teams get smitten.

And so what strikes me about the 2014 draft is just the sheer number of guys all being talked about and hyped concurrently. I expect some of these guys to fall as time goes on (as Boyd already has), but I just can't predict who will rise and feel like there's just enough genuine excitement around enough guys that no matter how this pans out I still have to think we see at least 4 first round QBs and maybe more depending on how these college guys finish up and now desperate NFL teams become.

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I mostly agree. I mean if you look how the 2012 draft was initially hyped it was Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley and Landry Jones as the clear first round guys. Though as the 2011 season evolved RGIII stole all of the Barkley hype as the new 1A guy and Weeden/Tannehill's stock climbed as Jones' fell. And last year's draft had a bunch of guys who were passingly intriguing at different times. Guys like Tyler Wilson and MIke Glennon had moments of being trotted out as future first rounders. Hell Geno Smith had virtually an entire season as one. So yeah you're absolutely right that the NFL doesn't work out that way most of the time.

QBs get hyped and then the actual draft evaluation process exposing all kinds of red flags we gloss over when we just see them lighting up Saturdays. A lot of these mocks have Manziel as a top 6 pick but at his size and level of arm strength I remain skeptical.

But it also works the other way too. There are guys scouts fall in love with as the process goes on. I don't recall anyone having EJ Manuel, Blaine Gabbert or Christian Ponder as first rounders until we got into the silly season. But you take a Manuel who interviews really well or coaches getting to see Gabbert's luxuriant golden locks for the first time in person and teams get smitten.

And so what strikes me about the 2014 draft is just the sheer number of guys all being talked about and hyped concurrently. I expect some of these guys to fall as time goes on (as Boyd already has), but I just can't predict who will rise and feel like there's just enough genuine excitement around enough guys that no matter how this pans out I still have to think we see at least 4 first round QBs and maybe more depending on how these college guys finish up and now desperate NFL teams become.

Oh I don't disagree that there will be 4 guys picked in the 1st round at QB. There just aren't 4 guys I would pick.

I like Bridgewater in the 1st, although I'm less high on him than any of the QBs to go in the top 2 the previous 4 or 5 years.

Hundley has the talent, but I worry about why he isn't dominating. I'd like to see him come back next year and really tear it up before I'd use a high 1st rounder on him. If he does come out, I wouldn't mind grabbing him middle to end of the first by a team like New England or New Orleans so they can groom him for a few years to take over as the starter. Hundley is certianly the least ready to take over as a starter.

Mariota, I'm worried about translating to the NFL. He's got a lot of work to do before he's a true pocket passer. I know Chip Kelly would want to draft him, though.

I don't like Manziel in the 1st round, because he can't get away with any of the things that make him great in college. Running all over the place doing his Jack Sparrow run he'll get killed. Heaving balls off his back foot will just get picked.

The rest of the guys are backups at best.

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In retrospect Holmgrem couldn't have played a great hand any worse. Between badly missing on both of his first round picks, to not leveraging those picks to having the inside track on RGIII to getting fleeced out of further picks by the Vikings off a false threat that a team was going to move up and steal Richardson from them at #3, everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Hell they could've had Julio Jones from the draft before if they didn't trade down. I still think that was a great trade at the time, but not with who they ended up using those extra picks on.

So the end result was instead of RGIII, Julio Jones or any (and multiple) of the guys you named, it looks like all they'll have to show from it is a 2014 first round pick in the 20's and two more brutally disappointing seasons in which judging by the brief Brian Hoyer era, they weren't that far away at all. At least their second round pick Mitchell Schwartz is pretty good but their fans had their sights set a wee bit higher than that.

1. Funnily enough, the rest of that draft and UDFA period was pretty good. Schwartz, Winn, Kitchen, Hughes, and Gipson have all played pretty well for us. Hell, Travis Benjamin has even turned into a solid returner.

2. In regards to Julio Jones, I'd take the player we got later in the first round, Phil Taylor, over Julio. He's top flight at a position of more importance.

3. Blackmon? We grabbed his exact clone from the supplemental draft in Gordon.

I didn't like the Weeden pick at the time, but held out hope that he might be OK given a system better suited for him. He's actually regressed, which is crazy.

However, I still hate switching from Weeden to Campbell. It is a change from a terrible QB to a terrible QB who injures his teammates with his throws. I'd rather take the losses on the chin this year with guys like Cameron and Gordon intact rather than suffer through those same losses while sending the actually talented guys to the Cleveland Clinic.

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That's a strong position to take on Campbell. What do you mean when you say he injures his teammates, anyways? Only guy I've seen do that recently is Andrew Luck ending Reggie Wayne's career.

I mean he broke Dion Lewis's leg in the preseason with a terrible throw, and almost did it multiple other times. I call that type of throw the "Colt McCoy Special", after seeing McCoy almost single-handedly kill Mohammed Massaquoi.

There's a reason we went with Hoyer over Campbell.

The team is bad this season, and neither Campbell or Weeden will ever make us good. I'd just prefer the option that allows us to get out of the season relatively injury free.

Weeden is awful, but at least his passes are either thrown so hard or so inaccurately as to prevent injury.

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That's a strong position to take on Campbell. What do you mean when you say he injures his teammates, anyways? Only guy I've seen do that recently is Andrew Luck ending Reggie Wayne's career.

Even Steve Young did that. Brent Jones almost kicked his ass on the sideline one time.

And then they won the Superbowl.

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The team is bad this season, and neither Campbell or Weeden will ever make us good. I'd just prefer the option that allows us to get out of the season relatively injury free.

Really? I had the impression the defense was pretty good and the offense was competent in the brief Brian Hoyer era. Seemed like they could compete for the division before he went down.

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Really? I had the impression the defense was pretty good and the offense was competent in the brief Brian Hoyer era. Seemed like they could compete for the division before he went down.

There is legitimate truth to this. The defense is very good and the offense was competent with Hoyer. The reason for this was his quick decision making. He got rid of the ball very quickly and was never asked to throw the ball more than 6 yards or so. This allowed Cameron and Gordon to go to work which is what you want for a team that's not super talented offensively. Get the ball to your playmakers and let them make plays. When Hoyer went down, it went back to Weeden who is the exact opposite; a quarterback who is never sure who to throw the ball to so holds it forever. In 3 games, Hoyer was sacked 6 times. In 3-4 games, Weeden was sacked 21 times. This isn't because the OL was magically brilliant for Hoyer but terrible for Weeden but more because Weeden had no concept of an internal clock.

So yea, definitely not a terrible team but clearly a team that needs a decent QB to compete. Defense is close but the offense will continue to be a problem until they get someone who can get rid of the ball quickly and I don't think Campbell is that guy.

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