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A Northern Conspiracy of Grand Proportions: Part V


BeWareOfMyHouse

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A fine idea, BeWareOfMyHouse!

To get us started, here is Yeade's summary which appeared in v.3 and v.4, as well as links to previous threads and relevant material:

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Following the Red Wedding and shipwreck of Robb Stark's kingdom, I think there's a veritable sea of hatred and resentment on the parts of the northmen and riverlords towards the Lannisters, Boltons, and Freys, for obvious reasons. However, with their armies scattered and leaderless, their kin held hostage for their good behavior, the defeated separatists grudgingly submit to the authority of the Iron Throne, backed as it is by the Lannister-Tyrell coalition. Then the situation changes. By the end of AFFC, Tyrion's put a crossbow bolt through the powerful and feared Lannister patriarch, Lord Tywin, leaving Cersei to rule in King's Landing and consolidate her family's gains in the War of the Five Kings. She, of course, proceeds to drive House Lannister into the ground, breaks the alliance with the Tyrells, and essentially abandons her allies, the Boltons and Freys, to their own devices, as the crown hasn't the wherewithal to dispatch another army of conquest or occupation north. At this point, I believe the Stark loyalists smell blood in the water.

Initially, there are a number of independent conspiracies to take simple revenge, IMO. Lady Stoneheart and the Brotherhood Without Banners hang Freys willy-nilly in the riverlands; Manderly, possibly supported by the Umbers, with whom he's been in communication with since the harvest feast in ACOK to construct the fleet Davos spies in ADWD, plots to betray the Boltons. Maege Mormont and Galbart Glover are guests of Howland Reed at Greywater Watch, presumably, sitting on the knowledge that Robb named Jon his heir. They contact their kin in the North, Alysane and Robett, with word of Robb's decree and to make plans for the retaking of Deepwood Motte from the ironborn.

Where these independent actions begin to resemble a concerted effort to restore the Starks to power is as the various groups of conspirators meet.

UnCat rides into the Neck with Jack-Be-Lucky and Lem Lemoncloak prior to Jaime's arrival at Riverrun. Once there, Jaime gives Tom o' Sevens, the BWB spy, time for a private talk with Edmure, who's another witness to Robb's decree and sent shortly thereafter to negotiate with his uncle. The Blackfish disappears before Riverrun surrenders, but two fairly high-ranking men from the garrison choose to take the black. Several of the more plausible candidates for the hooded man in Winterfell--Hallis Mollen, Harwin, Ser Kyle Condon--also would've had to pass through the Neck on their journeys north, with the attendant possibility that they took counsel with Reed.

Meanwhile, in the North, a Locke is present at Manderly's court when Davos has his audience. At Barrowton, prior to Ramsay's wedding to fake!Arya, Manderly has opportunity to speak to the Hornwoods, Cerwyns, and Tallharts. There are rivers of bad blood between those houses and the Boltons--Lady Hornwood's fate, Cley Cerwyn and Leobald Tallhart's deaths in the sack of Winterfell, the additional losses at Duskendale, including Ser Helman Tallhart. On the road to Winterfell, Alysane joins the northern clansmen in Stannis's march, who are otherwise out of the loop, and Manderly encounters Mance Rayder with his six spearwives looking for a way to infiltrate the castle and steal Ramsay's bride for her brother, Jon Snow. Flint and Norrey show up at the Wall with a tail of guards in time for Alys Karstark's wedding but, as even Jon suspects, probably not to attend it. Lady Dustin and the Ryswells, for their blood ties to the Boltons, are the last northmen in Winterfell to be approached about any pro-Stark conspiracy, after Manderly already has the other houses on his side, but by Theon's last ADWD chapter, it's done.

At the end of ADWD, the pieces are in place but, realizing much can go wrong, the conspirators are hedging their bets when it comes to Stannis and the Stark heirs, IMO. Of the remaining Starks known to the GNC, Jon's actually the safest option, having been on the Wall since AGOT with no indication that he'll ever leave. Or at least he was until the Ides of Marsh, lol. Bran's current location is a mystery, though the hill clans are likely aware he and his company were headed to the Wall, thanks to the unnamed Liddle early in ASOS. Rickon's on Skagos, and Manderly has taken steps to see that he is retrieved. If and when the GNC's successfully ousted the Boltons and Freys, then the conspirators can worry about the Stark succession. Until that time, it makes sense to me for the northmen to wrangle together as many Starks as they can find. Which in the end may even include Sansa, should the Blackfish powwow with the Royces in the Vale, who might know what Alayne Stone's true identity is courtesy of Myranda, Lord Nestor's daughter.

As for Stannis, it's certainly in the northmen's interests to ally with him, at least at the moment. However, besides Manderly and the treacherous Karstarks, not one of the northern houses has sworn to him, IIRC, and it's been argued that Manderly doesn't expect to survive to make good on his promise to Davos, which isn't exactly a binding vow on his heir, Wylis, witnessed by the old gods or the new. Whether the northmen will push for another King in the North or not depends, I think, on their mood once a Stark is again in Winterfell. It's quite probable, IMO, given that the Iron Throne's sanctioned travesties against them like the Red Wedding. That Stannis hasn't the force to gainsay them and the southerners soon look to be too embroiled in another round of civil wars to mount any immediate resistance will only encourage a second declaration of northern independence.

Beyond this, the common speculations are that either Jon will be crowned King in the North or Rickon will hold the titles, titles with Jon as his de facto regent, acting as supreme allied commander in the war for the dawn. Funny thing is that I feel Jon, of all the characters, is most likely to respect Stannis's claim to the Iron Throne, if for no other reason than that his pragmatism won't allow him to turn away anyone with swords to offer in the fight against the Others. That Jon defers to Stannis won't change the reality that it's Jon who'd hold the power, though. That it's Jon who the northmen follow, not Stannis, as is his perceived right as king of all Westeros. In many ways, this would simply be status quo so far as the North is concerned, the edicts of the Iron Throne obeyed only because the Starks say so, but my understanding of Stannis's character is that he'd take this at best as a slight, at worst as treason, not easily forgiven. What's more, gods forbid Jon disagree with Stannis about how to conduct the defense of the realm. Melisandre, for one, could become a point of contention between the two in her fanaticism. After all, she seems to believe Bloodraven and Bran, avatars of the old gods, are in league with the Great Other.

The northmen inside and outside Winterfell. Conspiration?
The Great Northern Conspiracy, Reexamined
The Great Northern Conspiracy, Part 3
Le Grande Northern Conspiracy, Parte the Fourth

Yeade's full seven part essay: The North Remembers

Bran Vras's The Winterfell Huis Clos

My own essay on the Riverlands: The Great Northern Conspiracy: Riverlands Edition

and this recent thread, which proves that there is still some concensus to be reached on the scope of the conspiration

Also, see my sig for a link to a database of all the players that may be handy in figuring out just who is doing what where :)

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Has anyone read the princess and the queen yet? (I'm not sure when it's out) as I'd like to see if the north got involved or not in the dance of dragons and if there was any disagreements between factions as generally in civil wars the North has been united unlike other regions. If there was a split it could highlight a deep lying animosity between northern houses that might create factions within the GNC. So rather than one whole group committed to one cause there could be different groups working towards similar causes but that could be aligned by what side each were on during the DoD.



I know different factions with the same goal has been touched upon before but I'm interested in whether or not the North has always toed the line and followed the Starks in matters of Targaryen succession.


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Has anyone read the princess and the queen yet? (I'm not sure when it's out) as I'd like to see if the north got involved or not in the dance of dragons and if there was any disagreements between factions as generally in civil wars the North has been united unlike other regions. If there was a split it could highlight a deep lying animosity between northern houses that might create factions within the GNC. So rather than one whole group committed to one cause there could be different groups working towards similar causes but that could be aligned by what side each were on during the DoD.

I know different factions with the same goal has been touched upon before but I'm interested in whether or not the North has always toed the line and followed the Starks in matters of Targaryen succession.

On a similar note, I'd like to know if any northern houses backed the Blackfyres.
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I liked the earlier french wannabe title more. :leaving:

Obviously, as you're retreat shows you have a love of things French.... (please don't kill me France).

I do agree that the seeming "grand conspiracy" that receives a lot of flak is a collection of many lords who have acted on their own conspiracies, it was the way for the rest of them to find their footing amongst another.

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I'm a firm believer that conspiracy is afoot in Winterfell, especially and quite obviously in the cases of Wyman Manderly and Whoresbane Umber. Also, the more I simmer on it, the more I'm convinced that the Hooded Man in Winterfell is Robett Glover.



But by every action and word, Barbrey Dustin appears to be a solid and true ally of Roose. When I do a re-read, I try to find redeeming qualities in her actions that seem to suggest she's working against the Leech Lord, but each time I find myself becoming more and more convinced of her unwavering loyalty to Roose, and her hate for Ned Stark (for understandable reasons, really).



By the way, has anyone else noticed that Theon Greyjoy seems to have a great deal of trouble recognizing people from his past, or people that he's met only briefly before? I'm working on a theory about him being one of the only young ASOIAF characters in need of glasses.


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By the way, has anyone else noticed that Theon Greyjoy seems to have a great deal of trouble recognizing people from his past, or people that he's met only briefly before? I'm working on a theory about him being one of the only young ASOIAF characters in need of glasses.

Which is weird, since apparently he considered himself a skilled marksman. Regardless, Bran Vras's Winterfell Huis Clos mentions this pattern of Theon failing to recognise faces.

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I think Robett Glover is outside Winterfell with an army with Manderly men and some others. In ADWD Wyman Manderly says that he's been trying to raise troops and i think Wyman secretly helped him.

So i guess it could be him to scout or talk with some lords inside with he's army hidden in the 6feet snow!

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On a similar note, I'd like to know if any northern houses backed the Blackfyres.

It feels like the kind of thing the Boltons would do (if not openly). I feel that the others may take advantage of the chaos (do we know the timing ing/circumstances of the Skagos rebellion.)

However, the impression I get is that it has been a long time since most of the northern houses have considered defying Winterfel.

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Wouldn't loads of the people in Winterfell have met Robett before?

I think it's been suggested that he has the perfect cover, because if he's discovered he just acts all "oh, I just got here to join the party..."

Remember Manderly's military strength is much greater than what he brought with him (openly) and also all those scouts that kept disappearing...

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Yeah I think most of the lords would recognize Robett. Roose, in particular, wouldn't fall for Robett saying that he's here to help the Boltons and Freys.



Even Davos found out that Robett was in White Harbor trying to raise an army to go against Bolton. It was pretty obvious that he wasn't happy with the way the northern forces got betrayed down south. If he's at Winterfell, he's outside leading Mandlerly's real army.


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I'm a firm believer that conspiracy is afoot in Winterfell, especially and quite obviously in the cases of Wyman Manderly and Whoresbane Umber. Also, the more I simmer on it, the more I'm convinced that the Hooded Man in Winterfell is Robett Glover.

But by every action and word, Barbrey Dustin appears to be a solid and true ally of Roose. When I do a re-read, I try to find redeeming qualities in her actions that seem to suggest she's working against the Leech Lord, but each time I find myself becoming more and more convinced of her unwavering loyalty to Roose, and her hate for Ned Stark (for understandable reasons, really).

By the way, has anyone else noticed that Theon Greyjoy seems to have a great deal of trouble recognizing people from his past, or people that he's met only briefly before? I'm working on a theory about him being one of the only young ASOIAF characters in need of glasses.

Good catch about Theon. It's appropriate in a way because he sees much but is blind to a lot.

About Barbrey, you may be right. She has an understandable grudge against Ned, but supporting Roose? The flayed man lord? And with that disgusting son of his? I find it hard that any non-corrupt, non-avaricious noble would be drawn to the leech lord. While I'm not convinced she is dissimulating, if so she is doing a flawless job. And knowing that Roose is ultra-perceptive and good at reading people, she would have to if she's to fool him.

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Good catch about Theon. It's appropriate in a way because he sees much but is blind to a lot.

About Barbrey, you may be right. She has an understandable grudge against Ned, but supporting Roose? The flayed man lord? And with that disgusting son of his? I find it hard that any non-corrupt, non-avaricious noble would be drawn to the leech lord. While I'm not convinced she is dissimulating, if so she is doing a flawless job. And knowing that Roose is ultra-perceptive and good at reading people, she would have to if she's to fool him.

Barbrey seems to be very bitter about Rickard and Ned Stark, but she loved Brandon and she's still a Northman.

I actually think it's possible that Barbrey may have been loyal to Roose at a personal level as her brother in law, but is so outraged by the Red Wedding and his role in it, and so disgusted by Ramsay who she believes murdered Domeric, that she is willing to aid the conspiracy despite appearing outwardly loyal to Roose. Her outward hostility towards Ned and her fondness for Domeric certainly give her cover if she's trying to convince Roose of her loyalty.

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Barbrey seems to be very bitter about Rickard and Ned Stark, but she loved Brandon and she's still a Northman.

I actually think it's possible that Barbrey may have been loyal to Roose at a personal level as her brother in law, but is so outraged by the Red Wedding and his role in it, and so disgusted by Ramsay who she believes murdered Domeric, that she is willing to aid the conspiracy despite appearing outwardly loyal to Roose. Her outward hostility towards Ned and her fondness for Domeric certainly give her cover if she's trying to convince Roose of her loyalty.

The thing I have wondered about her is whether she thinks Jon is Brandon's son. He hasn't been mentioned by her but if it was Brandon who had an affair with Ashara and Barbery knew about this affair she might surmise that Jon is his. It makes you wonder if there could be some Lords in the North that support Jon's claim because they think he is Brandon's.

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The thing I have wondered about her is whether she thinks Jon is Brandon's son. He hasn't been mentioned by her but if it was Brandon who had an affair with Ashara and Barbery knew about this affair she might surmise that Jon is his. It makes you wonder if there could be some Lords in the North that support Jon's claim because they think he is Brandon's.

Why would they believe that Ned would lie about Jon if he was Brandon's son? Why would it make a difference to anyone by Barbery.

Also, a question, how popular do you think the Northern Conspiracy of Grand Proportions theory is? I've whiled away many a happy hour reading the threads, but I was surprised on a "What do you believe" thread the other day to read lots of scepticism.

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