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  2. I'd say it's pretty similar to what Hunter S. Thompson proposed when he ran for Sheriff of Aspen (yes, the ski resort) in 1971. Back then, the area was just beginning to get hypercommercialized and Thompson ran on a platform devoted to running land developers and rich tourists out of town. He had this to say about the wisdom of arming cops: He did promise that anyone who did harm a cop would have hell rained down on then. I believe wolverines were promised. He and a young lawyer running for mayor got within a few dozen votes of winning, after the Republicans and Democrats agreed not to run against each other so they could unify against Thompson's "Freak Power" campaign. The entire platform and the full saga is documented in various HST books, but Wikipedia has a decent summary. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Battle_of_Aspen
  3. BwoB for sure. Not cold, not hunted by undead,... WYR serve the Yellow Whale or be Gregor Clegane's wife?
  4. Do you have quotes to show that Barristan mistrusts Illyrio?
  5. If this happens I believe Targaryen invasion of Westeros will be primarily done by Faegon. Daenerys will only come when Others' attack begin.
  6. I am very surprised that there are no Frey bastards from Robert.
  7. There are so many office buildings there, there’s lots of pedestrians. Especially since it was lunch time and it’s a gorgeous day, 18 and sunny.
  8. i hope so, Aegon needs more time to become a real threat to her, and i would like to see a dance of dragons with almost equal powered sites, which isn't given atm. with sacking more cities, like elyria, tolos, newghis or volantis she would give aegon some time and would show us a bit more of the world. i personally hope for a trip to old valyria as well
  9. Might not work as well as you hope since police departments seem fond of using SWAT teams to serve search warrants and in similar low-risk scenarios.
  10. @Yukle The study that article is talking about is really interesting and useful stuff. However, I didn't link it here because I figured its findings would be misinterpreted, even with 538's able summary, and I'd feel compelled to spend a considerable amount of time putting it into context. Well, screw it, here we go: 1.) The study is on demographic shifts, and as such is not predictive. Hell, their findings are not even projections the way that term is known colloquially in political journalism. They are simulations: Basically, what they did is provide estimates for demographic shifts on a state-by-state (even county-by-county) basis. Then, they essentially mapped the demographic margins in the 2012 or 2016 elections (actually, their data integration process is much more rigorous than this - see "Methodology" starting on pg. 31 - but I'm summarizing) onto these estimates of demographic turnout for a given future election. As the authors say, these are really cool thought experiments, but the demographic margins can and will shift from the current electoral makeup - hell, this should be abundantly clear considering they use both the 2016 and 2012 elections as baselines (and actually a third in which the large amount of third party voters in 2016 are estimated to "go home" to their most likely mainstream Party) since there were shifts between those two results! This is emphasized by both the authors and the 538 writeup repeating the mantra "demography is not destiny." Take a comparison of the 2012 and 2016 exit polls as an example. In 2012, Obama won Latina women by 53 points. In 2016, Clinton won them 44 points. If you can think of a plausible or even rational explanation for why Trump gained 9 points among Latina women, you're a better analyst than I. The point is, it is very difficult to predict or even project both future turnout and margins of future elections. And even as the election approaches and polling makes such predictions more reliable, there will be unpredictable demographic shifts during every election cycle. 2.) The findings are, as expected, generally very encouraging for the Democrats based on the country becoming less and less white. The study does not, in the slightest, find Dems "will find it harder to win the White House." Just look at the top-line results for mapping the three baselines onto the projected demographic shifts in 2020: So, if the (32) demographic groups voted by the exact same margin as in 2016, but only taking into account the estimated turnout shifts of the study for 2020, the Dems would win the electoral college in 2020. This demonstrates how narrow Trump's EC victory was (particularly in the aforementioned states). It's only when third party voters "come home" that estimates an EC tie - this reflects the fact that more third party voters in 2016 tend to vote GOP rather than Dem, which makes sense as more intraparty "leaners" were turned off by Trump than Clinton. In fact, when you look at all 16 of their different scenarios (see Figure 2, 13), in only 4 of their simulations does the GOP win the EC: when minorities shift to GOP; when uneducated whites shift to GOP; when educated whites shift to GOP; and when the GOP trades off gains in uneducated whites for losses in educated whites (more on this last one later). Overall, these scenarios actually show that if the Dems can simply hold steady, or make any type of marginal gains in the various demographic groups, the expected shift in demographic turnout should ensure their victory in 2020. 3.) What these findings do show is how integral uneducated whites are as a demographic group, and how they've been underestimated in exit polling: 44 percent of the electorate is huge. You don't need a study to know if Dems continue to lost that group 66-29 like they did in 2016, they're gonna be in trouble - even as uneducated whites decreases as a percentage of the electorate. This is why it's crucial to try to maintain competitiveness with this group, rather than write them off as hopeless racists. In fact, this study estimates if Dems can simply get the uneducated white margins back to 2012 levels, that would flip 7 swing states (WI, MI, PA, IA, FL, NC, OH) back to the blue column giving them 347 EC votes in 2020 (see Figure 8, 25). What this Figure does show, however, is if uneducated whites continue to shift towards the GOP, then the Dems would be screwed in the EC. However, what that simulation doesn't take into account is the "tradeoffs" part of their scenarios. If the GOP continues to double down on being the party solely of white racial resentment, then it would be a rather safe assumption we'd see corresponding shifts towards Dems among both minorities and educated whites. When those tradeoffs are simulated, the Dems regain their EC advantage (see Figure 9, 28). 4.) The other key finding of this study, in my book, is the importance of black turnout (and margins). If the Dems can generate the same type of enthusiasm black voters had for Obama, this can help secure the EC. Reverting back to black turnout and support in 2012 would give the Dems 339 EC votes in 2020 - flipping NC, GA, PA, MI, FL, WI - and an estimated 350 votes by 2036 (see Figure 6, 20). 5.) The final key thing to consider is the aging population: This study doesn't (and can't, really) take into account how these individuals will be demographically cross-pressured in terms of partisanship trends. Nobody can figure out right now how these dynamics will interact with each other and how each party reacts to a population that is at once older, more diverse, and more educated. 6.) No matter what the demographic trends suggest, it's rather silly to refer to demography as a "failure" on behalf of America. The electoral college is a complete abject disgusting failure, but this is hardly news. The trends among uneducated whites is independent of the EC, certainly more subject to change, and yes, it's incumbent on Dems to either recoup their losses or at least stop the bleeding there. But again, this is known.
  11. Jace is of the opinion that all these state and county level police departments need to be dissolved and reorganized in a standardized analytics based deployment meant to ensure optimal coverage of populations with the minimum required number of law enforcement officers. All 'undercover' vehicles should be sold or refitted into clearly designated Law Enforcement personnel carriers. Every 'street' officer should be armed with two magazines of rubber bullets in lieu of whatever conventional ammunition carried. All officers should wear bodycams, the malfunction of which should be interpreted as an intent to obstruct justice, and should undergo rigorous emotional and psychological screening on a semi-annual basis. That's off the top of my head.
  12. I think he will adore him even more so. He is acting as a knight should despite not being a knight while many knights and lords who are also knights don't act as a true knight should.
  13. Yo, Mat92 - a great point, one I haven't really seen before. You are totally correct that Petyr's love for Cat was/is genuine. Providing it doesn't mess with his current agenda, I could certainly see LF planning some nasty downfall for the Freys. An interesting question. While I can see various Freys making their own attempts at usurping Lord Walder, I'm not sure on the how-what-and-who of it all. A "Civil War" might be a bit of a confusing term for this situation, as I would imagine such a scenario would involve multiple parties, all vying for control. Currently dealing with the BwB hanging various members of the family - as well as being hated by most small folk in both the RL and North - House Frey really should have enough reason to stick together. That said, we know the question of succession is a big deal amongst Lord Walder's brood (who wants to play Lord of The Crossing?), so some kind of "Lord Walder isn't protecting our family well enough, I should be in charge!" dialogue wouldn't be too surprising, especially given the advanced age of many of Walder's sons and grandsons. Also, many of the Freys have a tendency to be less than savoury characters (Black Walder I'm looking at you). The idea of honour amongst the household must have taken a real hit after the events of the Red Wedding, so some kind of kinslaying machinations from certain Freys wouldn't surprise me. One thing that could be very interesting is how the Frey women would deal with such a situation. It would seem that the patriarch of the family has treated many of his female relatives like chattel, to be sold off whenever a high price is offered. While this kind of thing is commonplace amongst the Westerosi hierarchy, not many other Lords have had eight wives. Old Walder is 90 years old, with his latest bride being around 70 years his junior, as well as apparently being frail and timid - how might the younger female Freys view this type of thing? What would these women think of the fact that Walder has had seven wives die on him? While I can't be sure on their causes of death, Walder's long list of dead brides would suggest some foul play.
  14. Maester's get a Silver link for studying medicine and healing. I'd assume the Grand Maester of that discipline, if there is one, would have a ring, rod and mask made from silver.
  15. Yonge and Finch? Outside of commuter/school shift periods, not the most pedestrian oriented place to choose...much more drivers than walkers. Was it just outside the subway exit?
  16. When Jon dreams a wolf dream with Ghost he seas Shaggydog licking a wound that he received while fighting with and killing an enormous black goat. That goat is just a goat. It is not a unicorn. The word horn in this sentence is singular because only one injury is described and that injury was made by one horn. The exact same language is used in real life descriptions of bullfighters receiving injuries from bulls in the ring. For example: " A bullfighter has been left with sickening internal injuries after becoming impaled on a beast's horn and tossed around the ring." We don't assume that the bull has only one horn in this description.
  17. Perhaps. What do you think of converting US police to the Armed Response Unit method like they use in the UK?
  18. There's a young guy on CNN getting interviewed who saw the whole thing. He's pretty torn up. All Jacery aside, I feel for you guys.
  19. But Aegon will get angry, yes?
  20. I imagine he wasn’t holding a phone, though, so it kind of explains itself.
  21. An eyewitness has reported seeing at least 8 body bags.
  22. Historically midwives were quite often abortion providers. http://www.birthtakesavillage.com/abortion-history-and-midwifery/ https://static1.squarespace.com/static/559a971ee4b02838d134f030/t/5625a1ace4b0be0be096a3c3/1445306796946/SQUAT2eng.pdf And Erik may be thinking about this specific case from Scotland: https://www.nursingtimes.net/roles/nurse-managers/midwives-lose-abortion-argument/5042145.article or this one from Sweden: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39587154
  23. I've seen it argued that this play is the reason Socrates was executed by the Athenian State. It is interesting that it is among the survivors of ancient days.
  24. Over 300 million people in this country do something heroic every day, and that's live in a democracy. But there's a difference between being heroic and being a hero. Be a hero, Scot. Vote Democrat.
  25. the lord paramount is petyr baelish, not walder, and the whole civil war theory/speculation is based on the question of whom would inherit the twins after he dies. Yes it does, but the story also has been building up Robb Stark winning the wot5k, which didn't happen. i'm actually not sure if the wall will ever fall, although it's likely. because i have the time and i think als this bashing of theorists (especially PJ) isn't worth it, he has his opinion, you have yours and until TWOW is out noone (exept for george) knows who is right and who is wrong. and at least he doesn't publish fAegon Blackfyre theory nr 600 or the 7th version of Bolt-On i think a little bit of boltness is needed to make a theory thats worth watching/reading cause otherwise it would be a simple a+=c theory which everyone can guess on its own i doubt this, a video/spoken theory can analyzed line by line as well, maybe even better, because you can't put typos into spoken word. and after all its imo the better medium to produce and consumate theories. btw.: have you watched this video?
  26. Robert did not burn his body. As Jorah notes, Robert just walked over his corpse and went to King's Landing. To burn the body of a fallen Targaryen is a tradition, and that was likely done by those who fought beside Rhaegar. Barristan Selmy most likely. Robert doesn't care about traditions, and he cares even less about Rhaegar's corpse.
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