lancerman

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  1. There are several reasons to attack Casterly Rock. One it is seen as the Lannister base of power and could significantly kill moral if it is lost. It's a strategically advantageous location as keep that is difficult to siege and it's a spot where with the right number of troops and a steady stream of supplies it could be a region where Dany could hold it for a long time without too much trouble, especially if the idea is that Lannister's would dedicate a tremendous amount of resources to reclaim it. It's like Storms End in Robert's Rebellion. The army of the Reach which was massive spent almost the entire war stuck trying to claim it and it tied up considerable Targaryen banners that could have been used elsewhere. Having the Westerlands, DragonStone, Reach, and Dorne strategically make Cersei's job a lot harder. Even if you grant Cersei Storms End, it's basically the Stormlands/Crownlands/Riverlands (the latter of which is a complete disaster) all locked on one side against the Westerlands and Reach to the West, DragonStone to the East, Dorne to the South. Then to the North the Northerners and the Vale pretty much create a box to attack Cersei. From there it would be very easy to take the Riverlands and cost the Lannisters all the forces it took too hold Riverrun. Now Cersei only has King's Landing and if you grant it Storms End to defend. Which means you are pretty much forcing Euron's Iron Fleet to defend King's Landing from Blackwater Bay, boxing them in even more (or Shipbreaker Bay, which could end up being more trouble than it's worth). Also the other advantage is the idea that you cut off the Lannister's from their gold supply. However, the only counter is what Jamie did. Flagarantly abandon Casterly Rock so there is no moral loss over ceding it. Use the Iron Fleet to trap a good portion of Dany's troops in a now useless area, go over to the Reach with your trump card in Tarly and whichever banners follow him, take that and have a huge resource of supplies and land. From there you have all of central Westeros and you trapped Dany in two strongholds on the other side of the continent where she would have to risk it. Also losing Dorne makes that more appealing because a southern assault is taken off the table.
  2. Several things, but first and foremost a prequel from Cogman would have the benefit of being a rough outline of a sequence of events. Game of Thrones started on a very specific narrative path predetermined by the books. Small deviations had major consequences later down the line. The less clarity they had the more general the plot became and it showed in that the story became more about playing to set pieces as opposed to plot moments. He would have more creative freedom to carve out a storyline the way he wanted and fill in gaps as opposed to figure out what the next instructions in the manual would be. Also Game of Thrones is a massive show even compared to some pretty big shows on television. It's too much to ask that many actors and key figures to wait around while they figure out how to proceed. A lot of fans don't appreciate how many moving pieces go into this. This isn't the Sopranos or Breaking Bad where you are filming in the same location and have a core group of actors generate most of the significant screen time and everyone else can be flown out for a single day of shooting. If nothing else, it's the most ambitious show that's ever been shot and by a significantly greater scale than probably any show ever created. It's not like the Wire where you could wait and get the same several actors to shoot scenes in Baltimore and fly people in out when you needed them. I hate to keep harping on this but I don't think anybody would have done much better aside from GRRM who at least could apply his dialogue and a clearer idea of his vision to it, but even that's debateable. One of the last episodes he wrote was one of the worst in the series up to that point. The show started having quality issues in season 5, and they adapted the two books which is where quality issues also arose. The author himself wanted those two books to be one book. Again it's harder to split those books into two seasons. It would not have worked to split the cast up regionally like the books did for season 5 and season 6. And quite frankly, the plot just doesn't advance enough for each character to draw two seasons out of it. They could do it with ASOS because that book goes at a lightning fast pace and so much is accomplished from the start of the book to the end of it. That's not true of AFFC and ADWD. Name a POV character, less probably happens to them in those two books combined than ASOS. And I don't think I'm being controversial saying that the latter two books are largely considered to be of inferior quality to the former three. So it's not merely a D&D issue, it's a GRRM one too. He struggled there, he had two books that struggled to push the plot along that took him forever to figure out, and were largely less well received than the rest of the series. It's not really a surprise that the adaption of it had many of the same issues. Nobody had much of an issue with the first 4 seasons. So when the quality and story was there D&D were fine. So it's hard for me to put it entirely on them. I don't think anybody realized in 2011 when the first season was being finished that 4 years would pass and nothing would be added to the plot and they'd have to schedule a meeting so GRRM could tell them what they had left. I'd love to see Peter Jackson adapt Lord of the Rings with the caveat that he could do the Fellowship and Towers, but then for the finale he has to act like he never read Return of the King and just go off a cliffnotes summary of the ending. And that story as big as it is, is more linear.
  3. I think a lot of it's wishful thinking Stannis' death along with Jon's death is the perfect low point for the Northern arc before the turnaround and things start going in the right direction. The twist with the pink letter is very GRRM.
  4. Ghost is like the least important absence in the whole show. Only one Stark can warg and it's not Jon, so Ghost is just a sidekick that sometimes helps Jon. He's not a plot device like the dragons.
  5. You do know it's very different taking your own vision and making a story out it from the bottom up, than it is to take someone else's vision and adapt it for television, then asked to finish the story when it's done, right? Like nobody signed up for this.
  6. People complained when Stoneheart got cut. They complained when Jamie didn't tell the truth about Tyrion's wife. They screamed bloody murder when Sansa's time in the Vale was compressed to set up the Winterfell plot going faster. And even if you cut all that, other plots timing wouldn't have been better. We just would have more Bran in season 5 issues with characters being ignored for entire seasons.
  7. It's less a writing thing and more a "how much time you have left", thing. If you are limiting it to 7 episodes, there isn't much more room in there. If you add another writer, they are just going to suggest something and there ilwont be time for it. In season 1 or 2 that quest to find a wight could have been 3-5 episodes. Now it has to be one. They are already condensing too much.
  8. Not really. He already did that. He joined the Night's Watch, he became Lord Commander, he saved the Wildlings, he retook Winterfell, he became King of the North, he is in a relationship with a Queen vying for the Iton Throne and likely impregnated her meaning his heir is a potential heir to the IT if Dany wins. At this point, he's already proven himself. It doesn't matter if he gains the other half of the country because of birthright. The story is Jon Snow's parents love set off a chain reaction that led to a two massive wars in Westeros and ultimately he rose up to be the savior of the continent and king.
  9. Does Sam count as a main character? Let's assume he does. He's the only main character who you could put near Jon in terms of any type of ranking
  10. Robert would have never rebelled. Yes Lyanna was bethrothed to Robert, but Aery's was king and Rheagar was the crown prince. Robert and Ned still didn't rebel until after there was nothing left to lose because they were marked for death.
  11. Because it makes Jon king. The lowest main character in the series who couldn't even take the name of a main House was actually the byproduct of the catalyst that began the most important war in Westeros in 300 years and ousted the longstanding dynsasty and that same character arose from nothing to being the rightful king of the whole country.
  12. No Stannis' initial position absolutely matters. Nothing Stannis did by himself creates a war that large. The Stark and Lannister conflict? Absolutely. Renly going into business for himself and courting the largest army in the kingdom while he had the most secure location in the series. That could. Those two instances dragged the Westerlands, North, Riverlands, Stormlands, and Reach into the conflict. That's 5/8ths of the kingdom. Stannis had no plays whatsoever if the rest of the conflict didn't play out like it did. Hence why he was holed up in Dragonstone for the entire first book/season. Like Balon, he saw his opening when the conflict started. So no the breath of the war of the 5 kings had more to do with two instances where Joffrey's legitimacy as an heir was not in question. The secret of it indirectly spurned it, but nobody relevant at the outset of the war was contesting it. Renly and Robb never did. And those were the two sides that were more threatening to Joffrey's claim on the seven kingdoms. Renly was already trying to undermine Cersei and Renly started amassing strength well before Ned's letters went out. He never cared about it. He would have done it with or without it. It's not something you can prove. Robb cared more about his father and sisters being captured and the North not bowing to Lannister's. If a paternity test came out and proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that Joffrey were Robert's son, Renly and Robb still would have done what they did. Balon too. Only Stannis would have given up. And Stannis had nothing until he killed Renly.
  13. Several key points. The entire Lannister army was not fighting at Blackwater by any stretch. Tywin had most of the army off fighting in the Riverlands. Lannister and Tyrell forces came back to save them. That same army that saved King's Landing was fractured by the head of the main house being killed, them being spread out for Dany's cause, and Tarly bringing over some banners to the Lannister. They also had to battle in the least advantageous homefield of any region.
  14. There's only one House that hasn't sustained damages though and that's the Vale. The North fought the same war against the Lannister's, lost many men, lost key figures at the Red Wedding, and then has a civil war against the Bolton's where countless Northerners died. The Reach was fighting battles for the Lannister's, they lost their paramount House, the region split, a good chunk died in the siege on Highgarden, another good chunk died when Dany fought them. Dorne didn't really fight, but they are leaderless right now and probably out of the entire game. The IronBorn fought wars against the North and now are split. The Riverlands is just a complete disaster. And the Stormlands are directionless. I think everybody in the show acknowledged how out numbered Cersei was. But Jon never gave a damn about fighting Cersei because of the war against the undead. He was never going to waste men on that unless it came to his doorstep. From the Northern perspective, they are fighting for independence, they are in a region where nobody could ever siege it for several years now because it's winter, and the two armies that might try to conquer them are going to battle it out. So that really only left Cersei vs Dany. Where again it was widely stated that on a level playing field in open combat, Dany would crush Cersei. It's just Cersei really isn't giving her that. Also there is the fear of destroying King's Landing could compromise Dany's cause. Dany has a good army, but not a good siege army so she could waste many men trying to siege King's Landing where the payoff might be that Cersei goes yolo and blows it all up.
  15. Actually most people involved in the war starting didn't even know Joffrey was illegitimate. Renly was just going into business for himself. Robb just knew his father and sisters were held hostage and Lannister's tried to kill his brother. Balon just thought now was a good time to strike. Stannis was the only one that actually knew and he was in the worst position of the 4 rebelling against the throne when the war initially broke out. Had Robb/Renly specifically not rebelled, Stannis was screwed and would have struggled to actually make any meaningful effort, and likely would have been dealt with fast. Again it comes down to you overestimating Cersei's support. She has the Lannister's who would never leave her, a portion of the Reach who found a queen that had a blood relation to the line of succession more palatable than the daughter of an ousted king, and she had whatever remained of the cities watch and KingsGuard. It's just that Westeros is fractured it doesn't matter. John has a weakened North and the Vale. Dany has an army of Dothraki and Unsullied and a fraction of the IronBorn and a portion of the Reach.