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About Horza

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    right now there's a man who could take advantage

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    'Straya, love it or leave it!

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  1. US Elections - There is 'Ahead in the Polls' behind you

    Specifically, move the old party hand/dictator lobbyist loofah back a-ways and push forward the far right muckracker Lay-Z-Boy. Conway seems like a sensible piece of furniture by comparison.
  2. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    I don't follow, what are you saying here?
  3. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    It's clear that there was suspicion, because a lot of the apparent plotters were facing the sack at an upcoming military hearing. I guess you could argue that this was a dastardly clever way of inciting them into this coup, but why tip your hand like that at all if you want to encourage them to take action? You keep saying the risks can be minimised, but why would a study in paranoia like Erdogan be playing with matches like this, when his entire political life has been shaped by a well-founded distrust of the Turkish military and political establishment?
  4. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    Shirer, writing in the 50s without access to a fraction of the archival material historians can now draw upon, relies heavily upon Gisevius's testimony at Nuremberg but Gisevius for fairly obvious reasons needs to be taken with a grain of salt. In the mid '60s the 'Nazi foreknowledge' consensus swung around to the 'lone arsonist' theory after Fritz Tobias and Hans Mommsen's work. That consensus survived a revival of the foreknowledge thesis in the 90s, but now that thesis is under challenge by a new interpretation that undermines Tobias's evidence and revives the 'foreknowledge' case. As per the link, Richard Evans doesn't think much of the arguments (though apparently Ian Kershaw is much more impressed (Ctrl-F 'Kershaw' for it, and it would have been nice if Hett had given a citation for the quote)), but as Hett freely admits, the strongest point in defence of van der Lubbe as a lone actor is that nobody has plausibly connected him to the Nazis. Scott, I think I made my points pretty clearly. You're free to disagree, but yanno, make a case.
  5. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    Citation needed.
  6. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    Now you're suggesting something different. If there's a real coup plot and you know about it, it's no longer a false flag. I don't think that's what's happened here either, because knowingly letting a coup attempt go ahead is an incredibly risky thing to do, even if you've prepared for it. A coup strikes at the very base of political legitimacy, forcing everyone who upholds the status quo to ask themselves who they really serve - and there's no way to be sure what they'll say. That would be an incredible gamble for anyone, let alone someone like Erdogan, who sees Kemalist treachery and Gulenist parallel states behind every bush.
  7. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    They apparently did know, but didn't manage to secure them. This report suggests that this was a rushed plot brought forward when plotters realised they were under surveillance.
  8. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    What you're describing is an incompetent coup, followed a consolidation of power by a guy who makes Richard Nixon look like a let bygones be bygones, water under the bridge chill kinda dude. Do poeple think Erdogan didn't already have an enemies list with more names than the actual population of Turkey, coup or no? The reason false flag attacks pretty much always look dubious is because to do anything more convincing is complicated, a waste of time, and potentially a huge internal political risk. If you're going to lie through your teeth about what happened anyway, why stage something elaborate? And this is before we break out the balance of probabilites on being able to convince thousands and thousands of soldiers, cops, spooks, and who knows who else to shoot at fellow soldiers, MPs and people in the street because you've decided a fake coup is a really good and useful way to tidy up a few loose ends. And them all staying silent about that. Seriously bringing a plan like that up with your closest advisers sounds like a really good way to get yourself ousted for real.
  9. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    It came at the end of about five months of increasingly belligerent statements, atrocity propaganda and troop movements, so yeah.
  10. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    Yes, and most false flags look like the Gleiwitz attack: small scale, amateurish and dubious. See also the Mukden Incident, where the bomb the Japanese planted on their own railway to get into a fight with China didn't even damage the track. This, by contrast was a 8+ hour coup where parliament was bombed four times, gunships roamed the streets and real soliders and real citizens clashed, and hundreds of people were killed.
  11. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    I agree that this has strong parallels with the Reichstag fire. In just the same way that a lone Dutchman burnt it down and the Nazis siezed the moment out of a combination of genuine paranoia and opportunism, an incompetent coup is a gift to Erdogan politically as well as a huge confirmation of his many paranoias.
  12. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    Scott, for about eight hours there were helicopter gunships firing on city streets, people getting crushed by tanks, soldiers getting kicked to death, security headquarters and parliament were bombed and nobody knew what was going on. The coup failed, but this was real shit.
  13. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    It makes no sense. The potential gains from consolidating power after a quashed coup aren't worth the risk of this super cunning plan backfiring Producers-style. Coups by their nature invite sheer chaos and expose the tenuous threads of power for all to see. Exposing trumped-up coup plots are one thing, deliberately courting that kind of damage to your legitimacy is something else entirely.
  14. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    I'm anti-Erdogan, anti-military and pro-democracy so I can't but take note of the fact that that all of the opposition parties, including the HDP opposed the coup basically from the start. When there are anti-coup rallies in places like Izmir, you've got yourself one unpopular coup.