Bonkers

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  1. I never said he would be a more chaotic king, I said that his regency would be chaotic as it would mean Tyrell's and Lannister's fighting for more power and control during this time.
  2. I say Highgarden was where LF talked with LO as Tyrion recalls LF rode off for Bitterbridge, but at the Fingers he tells Sansa that he spoke to Mace and LO at Highgarden to "dicker for Margery's hand". Little confused by this bolded part above....do you mean Harrenhal was merely a means to an end for him? (because if you meant Highgarden then I don't understand as LF was the one who prevented her marrying into Highgarden)
  3. This doesn't make sense to me, as LF was the one who had the letter sent to Cat that had her convince Ned to go to KL. Why would he not want Ned to go, yet have Cat convince him to go? I can't see any real evidence to suggest strongly that Joff had anything to do with Bran's assassination attempt honestly. He seems to not care about Bran, he says "The Stark boy is nothing to me", it is the wolves howling he complains about. When the Hound suggests he could silence Summer, Joff laughs and says "send a dog to kill a dog"....Tyrion later misremebers what he said and thinks he said "send a dog to kill a wolf" implying he meant Bran, but it is not how the conversation went at all. And Joff's comment about not being a stranger to Valyrian steel doesn't really mean anything. As the king's son he is likely to have seen some at some point, including Ned Stark's sword - that beheaded him at Joff's command. Joff says that dragonbone is too plain for a hilt, I think it is only in reference to his new sword's hilt. That dagger is likely to be of great value, and not only was the assassin handed it, but given a big bag of silver. I doubt a catspaw would have waited for weeks after everyone left Winterfell and then done the deed....he would have just made off with the goods and not risked the kill. It just doesn't add up to me. Putting a catspaw 'in motion', as you say, AFTER they have all left Winterfell anyway gives no reason to prevent Ned leaving. The dagger was claimed by LF to be his, then to Tyrion. But Jamie says Robert was boasting about it that night at the feast to rub Jamie's loss in his face. Renly and probably Robert are known to bet against Jamie. If it was in Robert's baggage chain up to Winterfell (even though he only ever used the hunting knife given to him by Jon Arryn), then it had to belong to Robert when it was taken for the assassination. It is a very obvious blade to anyone who knows what Valyrian steel and dragonbone look like, and would seem to frame Robert if it is discovered, or at least someone of high birth enough to own it. This does imply that a stupid Joff may have unknowingly hired a catspaw with it, but if he is "no stranger to Valyrian steel" or dragonbone, then he must have known what the dagger was. Just a few thoughts. I know some people have discussed that it may have been the work of Bloodraven for some reason, but I can't see why Bloodraven would want Bran dead. Other people have also discussed that it may have been the Great Other using people to murder Bran, to prevent him becoming teamed up with Bloodraven. But I have yet to subscribe to either of these theories. All I know is that if it were just a stupid, vicious Joffery who says he doesn't care about Bran, then it was badly written - as I said, it is unrealistic to assume that any desperate catspaw would wait around for weeks after the hirer has left, risking being found, and not just made off with the money and dagger. If he were the world's most honest catspaw, and was told to wait until they were well and truly gone before killing Bran, then nobody really has any reason to want Bran dead at that point but Cersei and Jamie who, according to their PoV chapters, had nothing to do with it.
  4. My opinion .. LF was given the idea when Tyrion told him he would offer him Harrenhal for convincing Lysa to take Marcella. He then arranges for Dontos to meet with Sansa immediately, as he now has the opportunity to take Sansa to the Vale with him. But it is all ruined when Tyrion is found to have lied to him about it all, so he goes to Highgarden to offer Joffery to Margery in order to get Harrenhal back on the table and be able to marry Lysa. His ability to continue his plan is totally dependent on whether the Tyrell's agree to the match. Now, of course the Tyrell's will agree to making Marg queen, however Joffery's reputation and character is a big red flag for LO. As you say, she is very intelligent, and she is most likely aware that Joff could mistreat Marg, not only causing Marg pain and suffering, but by potentially creating another kingslayer moment with Loras protecting her. Loras is cocksure and arrogant, and just like Jamie was at his age - meaning he could very well act impulsively when Margery is at risk. This set of very real possibilities would perhaps lead LO to the conclusion that if left to chance, Marg would produce an heir to the throne with a terrible father, and if that father is killed under whatever circumstance then the throne is unsecured, and a regency gives a chance for the Lannisters to manipulate it for their own gain again. There are many risks involved for LO by allowing Joffery to be left as king. In order for Marg to produce multiple heirs she would have to endure years of torment. But if Tommen were the husband then the risks are diminished greatly and Tyrell gets to produce many heirs to a more stable-minded father. I doubt the length of regency is as much an issue to LO then the stability of future heirs. If Loras interfered before an heir was produced, the whole deal is off, and she couldn't even marry Tommen after. I don't know how reliable her account of the tale is, but I do know that LO tells Sansa she refused to marry into the Targ family because of their maddness. If that is true, it stands to reason that she would want to prevent her granddaughter from doing the same. Given this, I find it reasonable that LO would have considered removing Joff before it could provide issues. The wedding is the perfect time - or before - as it allows the Tyrell's to secure Tommen without suspicion. Mace Tyrell would not need any convincing, but LF had to convince LO that marrying Joff is a good idea given his reputation. It may be possible that he spoke about Tommen to her also, and subtly put the idea forward. The idea that there was no reason for LF to remove Joff is not entirely true to me, as I think the idea that the Tyrells and Lannister's both struggling for the most power over the throne would be sure to cause tensions and be a very strained and chaotic relationship. Tommen being king needs guidance and more 'molding' than Joff, and the idea of the Tyrells and Lannisters both trying to be the more influential is bound to cause chaos in the longer regency. The hairnet is only then presented to Sansa the day LF is publicly rewarded Harrenhal, and Margery is officially betrothed to Joff so he now has his original plan secured. The wedding of Joff and Marg is now his chosen time. I think if he was planning on killing Tyrion, there is plenty of occasion to do it before the wedding, he has numerous catspaws to arrange it when he has left KL. If LO is involved there are plenty of less risky ways to do it rather than at the wedding in public. As you mentioned, she could have just carried the poison herself and poisoned him some other way, instead of relying on Sansa and the hairnet. But if Joff is to be killed, it is best to do it publicly to ensure there is no question raised implicating a Tyrell or LF - instead make someone else look guilty...like Tyrion after his presented with the jousters JUST before the pie is brought forth. There is the high possibility that it is just pure luck Tyrion was able to be so easily framed, and that it may not have been the plan. We really don't know until the final books come out. But I do think there are plenty of reasons for LO to have wanted Joff murdered at that point in time.
  5. Let's look at the P.O.D. (Petyr, Olenna and Doran) conspiracy from both possible poisoning perspectives to see whether there might be any connections The Tyrion one first. Petyr obviously has the personal preservation motive - to hide his embezzling of the crown monies. Tyrion may appear to choke on his pie, so no one is blamed, but how does that provide Sansa the opportunity to escape? She would be either blamed or not but as she is seated right next to him she can not simply just run away, and she would be watched carefully following it. Oberyn can't really be blamed, as he is no where near the dais. Could it be pinned on anyone convincingly? I don't believe so. Petyr would most likely be acting alone (with Shae removing the gem when she put in in Sansa's hair, and then placing it the pie in the kitchens, for example) and no one else is aware of it. To tell Olenna or even Doran of his plan seems far too dangerous for LF to do, and he has no reason to. In order to do this he needs to be in a position where he can get messages to his catspaw/s without having them intercepted, so where could he be during his absence? Also, how did he know Joffery was murdered as soon as Sansa arrived? She came immediately from the wedding, and it didn't leave much time for another person - whom was unlikely to have been at the actual wedding - to row out to him first. Olenna has the motivation of removing Tywin's heir from inheriting northern power. LF created tension between the families by snitching on the Tyrell's to Tywin, and thus giving Sansa to Tyrion. It is unlikely Olenna knew about LF's meddling, but it served to lessen the stability of the union further. Olenna has no love for any Lannister, so removing Tyrion from Tywin's plans is not likely to be a problem for her. Nor does it threaten Margery's position. Also, it leaves Tywin without a male heir. I don't believe she would act alone in this while doing it so publicly as placing the stone in Tyrion's pie. There is too much risk at being caught, and Tyrion was watching the pie the whole time. He watched the server place it in front of him, and then spoon the cream on top. IF she had taken the stone from Sansa's hairnet then how did it get into the pie? It didn't get put there when it was served, as Tyrion was looking at it, and why would someone (say, Garlan) place it in the pie as Tyrion is getting up to leave with Sansa? If he is leaving why bother? The poison had to be put in the pie before it was served. I don't see anyway for a Tyrell to do this from the dais. Doran has a similar motivation for wanting Tyrion dead. Remove Tywin's power from the north, and his heir as well. There is no connection to Doran is this scenario as far as I can tell, as Oberyn has nothing to do with the hairnet, nor the pie. Neither Olenna nor Petyr would have any reason to tell the Martell's about any plot to kill off Tyrion, and I don't see Oberyn using a catspaw to poison someone. The Joffery one. Petyr has chaos as his motivation, and by killing the King he throws the realm into a longer regency under Cersei. This however is not a certainty, as Tywin is still alive, and is just as likely to send Cersei back to the Rock and assume the Regency himself. The only reason I see for him acting alone in this is to create a diversion to remove Sansa, and thus frame her for the murder. It also would frame Tyrion as her husband (as Tyrion thinks to himself in his cell, that no one would believe either he or Sansa would have acted alone without the other being complicate). This allows him to take Sansa in the confusion, remove Tyrion from the game and kill off Joffery. To act alone, however, he would need to have Shae remove the stone, and then have a server place it in the chalice, and I find this unlikely. Olenna has the motive to remove Joffery and marry Margery to Tommen, a more promising King (this is also a motive for Tywin actually, as after his whole life working towards having a Lannister on the throne, he ends up with Joffery - who is a lot like The Mad King). Olenna is mosy likely aware that Cersei will be sent away or married off, and Tywin will be Regent, thus creating a more stable environment for her family. It also means that someone will be blamed for the murder, and the likely suspects are Oberyn Martell or Tyrion. As Oberyn is no where near them this seems unlikely as an expected patsy. It may be that she saw the opportunity when it arose and knew Tyrion would be perfectly positioned to take the blame. Again, this removes Tywin's male heir and the Lannister hold on Winterfell/the north through Sansa. I doubt she would have any reservation at Sansa being blamed along with Tyrion at this point, as she may just want to diminish Tywin's power hold. To pull this off she must needs remove the stone from the hairnet and place it in the chalice. This requires her to know about the hairnet through LF, and to inform Margery of it to ensure she doesn't drink from it beyond that point. She can not do this alone, and so there must be a LF/Olenna connection here. She had to have done it when the pie was being cut. Doran and Oberyn already have Marcella, and the discussion about crowning Marcella in Dorne had already transpired. Doran seems to not be ready for that all out war, as Tywin is still full strength. Doran claims to have told Oberyn about 'taking measure of the boy king' and finding friends in court, but Oberyn's true intentions seem to be of vengeance. If Oberyn was intent on fighting the Mountain he may have been expecting a trial at some point. He can not just walk up to him start a war between the throne and Dorne by killing him without due cause. Was he expecting it would be after he poisoned Tywin that it would happen? Was he aware that someone else may perhaps need a champion after Joffery's poisoning? We know that Doran has friends at Court, so how much did they know before arriving? I don't think there is any real evidence to connect the Martell brothers to the poisoning at the PW itself, but the relationship between Tyrell and Martell is not as negative as it once was in the past if Oberyn is to be believed. Even Mace Tyrell claims he has no issue with Doran, it is Oberyn he has issue with, for hurting Willas I think. Olenna constantly calling Mace an oaf seems to say to me that if there were a form of alliance between the families against House Lannister, Mace would not necessarily be a part of that understanding. The fact that Tyrell was the main support for Renly (before LF arrived at Highgarden), and Renly was expecting Dorne to join him is very telling to me. Dorne had no reason to support Renly as a Baratheon nor Joffery as a Lannister. They had no reason to get involved at all, yet Renly tells Catelyn otherwise. It seems there was some agreement between Dorne and the Reach prior to LF arriving at Highgarden, if LF discovered this he may have used that to his own advantage and fed each side information about the other to get what he wants. It seems to me that if Tyrion was the intended recipient of the poison, then it had to be Petyr acting alone with perhaps Shae, as there is seemingly no other way for the poison to get there unless it was placed there prior to arriving on the dais. But this leaves it highly unlikely that Sansa would have an opportunity to escape unnoticed, as she is his wife, sat next to him and will be watched or even blamed. When LF asks Sansa if anyone said her hairnet was crooked and straightened it for her during the night, it seems very exact to me- not that someone touched it, but the reason why they did. If this was in fact the case of LF acting alone however, I see no reason that there would be a P.O.D. conspiracy surrounding the poisoning, and any conversations he had with the Tyrells were of no consequence but to create friction between the two Houses. If Joffery was the intended recipient, then there must be collusion between at least Olenna and Petyr. To know about the hairnet she must have been told. It also implies that Margery was informed to a degree, as to avoid the cup. Given that LF and Olenna may have had these discussions, it begs the question as to how much do the Martell's know, and what is the purpose of the previous alliance? If Olenna is trusting a sly man like LF, would she trust Doran Martell? All LF need do is tell Tywin and it is all over for her, I mean, she already tried to sneak off with Sansa. I think she would need more assurance than just LF's word. Why trust LF alone in something so important? I don't think she would, she would need to have something far more reassuring than that to go ahead with regicide.
  6. Nah, I think talking about the poisoning is a great contribution to the topic. After all, it is pretty much what I raised the question around. You raise some top points about who the poison was meant for and why it happened. One big reason for me that I felt there could be a connection between the three groups, is the timing of all the poisoning happening around the PW. If we look at it from a different angle, that LF used Shae to poison Tyrion's pie and remove the threat he would uncover all LF's plotting, then we would need to find a good reason for him to involve anyone else. I am not certain he would directly tell the Tyrells nor Martells about his plan - that would be potential suicide! But both families do have reason for wanting Tyrion removed (Olenna for Tywin stealing Sansa's claim to the North away from them, and Doran for destroying Tywin's ambition to spread Lannister power all throughout the realm). Neither are directly about Tyrion himself, but his position as Sansa's husband means he is the target. I will return again to my comment about Petyr being out in the bay on the ship. He could not have just been sitting idle for a month, Sallador Saan pirating, and the traders would want to be trading. He must have been somewhere, and somewhere to have messengers reach his people in Kings Landing. If, IF, he had been in Dorne, then messages may have passed between Doran and Oberyn without anyone else reading them. If not by raven, then someone would have to be traveling on foot, or he used trading galleys to transport his messengers to his people. Given LF actively created tension between Tyrell and Lannister (snitching on them marrying Sansa to Wiilas and informing on Joffery's mistreatment of Sansa), it could be to the favour of Doran Martell. The problem I have with him being the one to poison Tyrion, not Joffery, is his proximity to KL when it happened, and his need for messages to reach him in a timely fashion. He was waaay out in the bay when Sansa reached him. Hours out. The bells could no longer be heard. Yet one of the first things LF says to her is "He sold you for a promise of ten thousand dragons. Your disappearance will make them suspect you in Joffery's death." LF knew Joffery was dead. I find it highly unlikely he was told before hand, as he was so far out and on a ship no raven would find. Of course I don't know for certain, but I find it hard to see how that would happen.
  7. Yeh that makes sense to me if it were true that they were hired. Varys keeps a close eye on Shae, but he also tells Tyrion he doesn't understand how he could be so stupid as to act like such a fool about her.
  8. I noticed on a re-read a seemingly throw-away thought Sansa has in the Godswood after the wedding....that she wished Shae were there to help her with the hairnet. This implies Shae put it in for her initially, giving her the opportunity to remove a stone....and Shae worked in the kitchens, knew the servers etc. She was pissed at not being able to attend...then is found with Tywin the night before Tyrion is to be executed. Is there any possibility she was given the task of poisoning someone (most likely Tyrion)? Could LF have got the Kettleblacks to convince her in return for something?
  9. Maybe he was implying that he had run off during the nights to find the wall, to find safe shelter because he is acting like a craven? ....good question, you should ask GRRM or his team. Seriously.
  10. Not sure if this has been mentioned...sorry, but Catelyn descends from the Whents on her mother's side, and they are historically known for being either barren or constantly having miscarriages (like Lysa). Her mother had a few missed herself, and died after birthing I think. Whereas Catelyn has five hale and healthy babes, no misses as far as we know. I put it down to strong Stark genes and perhaps a magical property to their blood. She has the babies, but the only one left to be strong for the northerners is Arya - Sansa is just like her mother....reliant on someone else. Rickon has a shaggydog story most like, and Bran is off.....you know, branning about with the Great Other crow (jon and bran face off anyone? lol). Arya and Jon are so alike, northern, not Tully. Most likely magic played a part in this world...their fate was already destined type thing.... or not. lol.
  11. this...alll this and more.
  12. I love the image of Val with that crown (bronze was it? old style) on her head looking more regal than Stannis when they burned Rattleshirt. Makes me think she has more to her, as Jon also notices her eyes shift colour in different light and moods...much like Ned's and his own. I don't believe the idea that they are related directly but they seem to have a connection through Ghost. Like Arya, she is more wild than lady. Seems to me there will be an issue with Val and Jon the other way around. She was impressed by her giant for a guard, and Jon did technically steal her 'wildling fashion' - he could have killed her like he could have killed Ygritte. I think Val will expect Jon to be hers and perhaps when Dany enters as a possible suitor, things will get messy. MAYBE, just maybe, Dany tries to prove herself but her fire resistance fails this time and she kills both her and Val..... I remain haunted by the post Tyrion TLannister posted ..
  13. ...I made a comment that was a joke, and not meant to be offensive. I agree with many things that have already been discussed so any comments I make will be redundant at this point...why should I comment? ...I am sure I have at some point ...I am only commenting past my first post because you keep making comments I feel I should reply to and asking me questions....you keep popping up in my notification window. Please let's not derail anymore.
  14. you just made me think of Mel saying "wake a dragon from stone"
  15. I like this as part of his arc for sure!