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About Fez

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    Like A Thundering Lizard
  • Birthday 11/18/1987

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  1. Trailer thread II

    What a weird thing. Also, I sure hope there's some throwaway line about how Matt Damon's character is one of those Roman soldiers that ended up in China. There'd still be the issue of having a white guy randomly being the main character of an Asian cast movie, but at least he wouldn't be in yellowface. Beyond that, the whole concept just seems bizarre. If its based on any sort of Chinese mythology I could understand the basic thinking beyond it though; similar to the various movies that assume Greek/Roman/Norse/Egyptian mythology is true (e.g. Clash of Titans, etc.)
  2. US Elections - From Russia with Love

    If she can get some working class whites, awesome, but I think she was more explicitly trying to woo middle class suburban Republicans. Especially the ones that are Republican entirely due to conservative economic views and don't care about the social stuff. The Clinton campaign is clearly betting that those people may like tax cuts and deregulation, but not enough to vote for Trump.
  3. US Elections - From Russia with Love

    I liked Chelsea's speech, but I also had a weakness for dinosaurs growing up. So I may be biased. Clinton's speech was okay. Nothing great, but most nomination acceptance speeches aren't that special; even Obama's two are definitely at the lower end of what he's done. Despite the rough edges in delivery and content though, I think it served its purpose as a capstone to the convention: reinforcing that, even if you don't like her policies, its easy to picture Clinton keeping the ship of state afloat as President; whereas Trump cannot be. I'm impressed by the convention as a whole, but we'll see what the polls say in a few days. If this doesn't give a solid lead, nothing will.
  4. Only tangential to politics, but prosecutors have dismissed all charges against Ingmar Guandique, who was previously convicted and had been facing a retrial, for the murder of Chandra Levy. The only reason given was that the decision was based on "based on recent unforeseen developments." I really wonder what an unforeseen development 15 years after the fact is. Also, I wonder if this something like a new alibi or DNA evidence exonerating Ingmar or if there's new evidence making it clear that someone else is responsible. I remember that Rep. Gary Condit was looked at really closely once news of the affair broke, but I don't know if there was ever any hard evidence that he might've been involved.
  5. US Elections - From Russia with Love

    The likelihood may be greater, but the magnitude would be much smaller. No terrorist act committed by an illegal immigrant would functionally end the country, or the current governing structures and norms of the country, or however it is we're defining this right now. In some situations, we should fear the more likely event over the more damaging event (e.g. fear a car crash more than an airplane crash), but in other situations we should fear the more damaging event over the more likely event (e.g. fear getting the flu more than getting the common cold). I don't think we have the appropriate data to make the calculation in this case, which means there's no argument that people are being irrational if they choose either one to fear more.
  6. NFL 2016 Offseason: THIS Is The Year!

    I suspect Geno stays as the primary backup for now and that Petty is the odd man out. Hackenberg gets practice reps and if he looks good enough maybe takes the backup role from Geno. This is the last year of Geno's contract, and he'll be gone after this season. Unless the Jets really like Petty, in which case maybe the Jets try to find a team willing to take Geno for a 5th rounder or something in the next few weeks. I'm pretty sure its too late at this point to cut Geno without taking the cap hit, so I don't think that'll happen.
  7. NFL 2016 Offseason: THIS Is The Year!

    Glad to see Fitzpatrick and the Jets finally agreed to a deal; 1 year/$12 million (with another $3 million in incentives). Considering the amount of money he was asking for, I think a 1 year deal is probably for the best, to find out if last year was just a fluke, but committing to a longterm contract. At the same time, the Jets had no other good options for QB and it would've been too depressing to regress with Geno after last year's successes (even if they ultimately fell short of the playoffs). This season is gonna be tough though. The Jets are tied for the 7th toughest schedule, with vs. Jacksonville, @Washington, vs. Giants, @ Philly, vs. Cincinnati, @Buffalo, @Kansas City, vs. Seattle, @Pittsburgh, @Arizona, vs. Baltimore, @Cleveland, @Miami, vs. Los Angeles (so cool to be able to type that), vs. New England, vs. Indy, @San Fran, @New England, vs. Buffalo That's one hell of a thing to get through.
  8. US Elections - From Russia with Love

    Clinton is pretty explicitly running for Obama's 3rd term at this point, so no, there isn't much of a difference. Especially when, the main thrust of said appreciated speech is that the other candidate is dangerous to the country; being mentioned in the same sentence as fascism, communism, and other threats. And yeah, any bounce will eventually dissipate; the question is where is the new normal after that happens. Obama got a bounce in 2012, it disappeared, but he ended up well ahead of Romney (who after his own bounce had briefly tied/led the race) and never gave it up (although Romney's second bounce after the first debate got him close again for a bit too). If Clinton gets a +7 bounce and then settles into a +3 lead; I'd be satisfied. I suspect her internal polling already shows a very different picture than a lot of the public polling. It could be wrong, Romney's sure were, but Democratic internals are usually better than Republican ones*. But unless the campaign thought she was winning, I don't think they'd be sending her to Omaha on Monday. That single electoral vote is nice, and maybe they'll be some sort of event with Warren Buffet that'll get press, but that's valuable time that could be spent in Florida or Ohio or other swing states if it was necessary. *For example, Democrats knew they were gonna get crushed in 2014; but didn't say anything to keep the margins down in still-winnable races. Which sort of worked; Warner won in Virginia by 0.8% in a race that Republicans put almost no resources into because they and the public polling had Warner up by 10% or more.
  9. US Elections - From Russia with Love

    Sure. But if 55% of the country thinks it was an amazing speech (no data on this yet, just throwing out a number) and they all vote for Clinton, that's a landslide. The fact that any Republicans think it was great speech, and there are a few (mostly saying that it was basically a Reagan speech with a couple Democratic lines thrown in), is a pretty big win. Since that suggests that there are more than a few independents who think it was a great speech, and nearly all Democrats would think it was a great speech no matter what. I think the polls coming out starting on Sunday/Monday are going to show a pretty big bounce for Clinton.
  10. US Elections - From Russia with Love

    Why? What evidence do you have that he was joking? That's a pretty huge assumption to make about something this important. And even if he was joking it would still be terrible because foreign espionage and election tampering are not issues that public figures should be taking lightly.
  11. U.S. Elections - Philadelphia edition

    I'm sure he'll do something within the first few weeks of office that would fit the definition of "Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors." Not saying they'd do it on inauguration day, they'd wait until they had an excuse. Of course there is, there's no way not to read as calling for espionage. And I'm going to bite my tongue on saying anything because I like to remain polite. ETA: I've seen the argument that its actually a violation of 18 USC 373, since courts have held that hacking counts as "physical force."
  12. U.S. Elections - Philadelphia edition

    Actually, he probably won't be my President. Because I really wouldn't be surprised if one of the very first things Ryan and McConnell do is implement impeachment proceedings so that Pence can be President instead.
  13. U.S. Elections - Philadelphia edition

    Without hyperbole, we are actually, literally almost at the point where a major party nominee for president is committing treason. I'm not familiar enough with the statutes to know if he has crossed the line. I suspect not, since he is calling for foreign espionage, not actually conducting it (maybe sedition is the more accurate charge?). But I think there is enough happening here, with all the vague connections to Putin, that the FBI should formally investigate the issue.
  14. U.S. Elections - Philadelphia edition

    This is just beyond fucked. The whole press conference was insane. And all Ryan and McConnell will do is put out meaningless statements saying "We disagree, but we still support Trump." I saw that Ryan already did.
  15. U.S. Elections - Philadelphia edition

    Sure. And this maybe means Clinton has privately said she likes TPP, I don't know. But it doesn't matter. Its absolutely clear that politically its suicide for her to support it. And with congressional leadership like Pelosi now coming out against TPP as well, the party can't walk back from this. Politicians hold private thoughts all the time they never act on. There's still a bunch of Democrats in Congress who privately don't like abortion, but they publicly support it through a combination of knowing that's where the party is and believing that they shouldn't subject other people's bodies to their views.