Fez

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  1. It is, but there are five Republicans who filed to run. https://ballotpedia.org/Texas'_27th_Congressional_District It looks like three are complete no-names, one is former local official, and the fifth is Bech Bruun who resigned as chairman of the Texas Water Development Board to primary Farenthold. Maybe one of the four becomes a grassroots darling, but Bruun is a real candidate and will likely easily take the nomination. And that district is red enough that the likely coming Democratic wave would need to truly extraordinary to take it.
  2. On the other hand, Mississippi already has a Democrat elected to statewide office. Jim Hood has been the state attorney general since 2004 and still regularly wins elections by decent margins (in 2015 it was 55-45). From the little I know, there doesn't seem to be any secret sauce to him either; he just does a good job and voters keep him in office. So there still is some sort of path to victory in Mississippi. I agree that Georgia is probably a better target, but it is also a much more expensive target. A few million in Mississippi would go a long way. I think the two best red state targets right now may be Oklahoma and Kansas, though perhaps only for state offices and not senators. Things have gone so poorly in both under all-GOP government that it seems like voters are finally ready to give Democrats another go (as evidenced by all the special election wins in Oklahoma and the 2016 primaries in Kansas where a bunch of Republicans got defeated from the left).
  3. Yeah, white women voted overwhelmingly for Moore. BUT, 34% voted for Jones, and without that 34% Jones would've lost in a landslide. Alabama hasn't had exit polls since 2012, but in 2012 only 16% of white women voted for Obama. Democrats need their base, absolutely, but they also need everyone else who votes for them too. Jones probably didn't flip that many usually Republican voters, but he did flip some of them, and they provided the margin of victory last night. Per the exit polls, Jones got 9% of the voters who approve of Trump, 5% of the voters who said Moore shared their values, 6% of the voters who said Jones didn't share their values, and 6% of voters who said they wanted Republicans to control the senate (there's likely a ton of overlap between these groups). These aren't large numbers, but these are the Republicans that Jones convinced that Moore was so unacceptable that they needed to vote for a Democrat; and without them Jones would've lost. He also would've lost if African American turnout wasn't as high as it was, but that's the point. Democrats need all their voters.
  4. Peter King has never been cuckoo. He's a racist, Long Island establishment guy, who definitely collaborated with the IRA back in the '80s. Last congress (Jan. 2015-Jan. 2017) he was ranked the most bipartisan member of congress by a pretty substantial margin; meaning he was the most likely to crossover on votes. http://www.thelugarcenter.org/assets/htmldocuments/The Lugar Center - McCourt School Bipartisan Index 114th Congress House Scores.pdf
  5. Compared to some states that map really doesn't look that bad. Also, he won the state by 1.5%, he lost the 5th CD by 0.3%, the 3rd by 2.9%, the 1st by 3.8%, and the 6th by 4.6%. Considering geographic variance, that seems pretty reasonable to me.
  6. The SoS seems like a generic Republican, meaning he'll probably win by the standard 25+ points. The Governor though, seems like a tiny possibility. She was Lt. Gov until Bentley resigned, and even though I don't think she's been implicated in any of Bentley's scandals, some voters may still associate her with them (which is the same issue Strange faced in the senate primary, there was no evidence he was bought off by Bentley, but voters suspected it all the same). Also, she may have angered some Moore supporters with her extremely tepid support of him after the allegations broke (including saying that she believed the women, though she would still vote for Moore). Plus, while not to the extent of Oklahoma or Kansas, the state has been facing budget shortfalls resulting in cuts to K-12 school funding (which in Oklahoma seems to be the driving factor for all those Democratic state leg special election wins). Finally, she's a woman and there are some Republicans who just won't vote for a woman. It's a longshot, but the right Democrat could possibly pull it off. And since its a 2018 race, Trump won't be on the ballot to gin up his base.
  7. So long as he isn't the decisive vote, I'm fine with him voting with Republicans whenever he feels the need to. At the same time though, he ran as a mainstream Democrat in Alabama (I still can't believe a pro-choice candidate has won in Alabama) and didn't make any specific conservative policy promises. He even said that there should be "limitations" on the second amendment (though it looks more like he was talking about limiting access to guns for some people, such as felons, rather than limiting the guns available to people with access). ETA: They already are trying. It was buried under all the other news yesterday, but someone forged a sexual assault settlement against Schumer and passed it off to a news org. When they went to Schumer's office for comment, the office notified capital police, who are now looking into it.
  8. I'm still practically giddy. The implications for the senate for the next three years are enormous. And now that it turns out miracles are possible, maybe, maybe just maybe Jones can exploit the divisions in Alabama Republicans and somehow win reelection in 2020 (The race was much closer than usual before the Moore allegations, and while presumably the GOP candidate next time won't be quite as flawed Jones will have the benefits of incumbency). I wouldn't count on it of course, but its nice to dream. And speaking of 2020, it seems that many ambitious GOPers in Alabama are looking forward to it already, which may be way they aren't getting on board with having a recount. Why let Moore hog the seat when one of them could likely win it in three years? Also, maybe the margin changes slightly during certification, but it'll probably remain around the 1.5% it currently is. So, who had the most accurate prediction and can claim their much deserved kudos? I predicted Jones+3, but I believe there were at least a couple people who had Jones+1.
  9. 100% of precincts now reporting in. Jones' margin has jumped to 1.5% (over 21,000 votes), while write-ins accounted for 1.7% of votes. Moore was just talking about a recount, but he was citing the 0.5% automatic recount, which clearly isn't happening. I imagine he can pay for a recount himself (most states allow that), but wonder if he has the money for that.
  10. The only thing in favor of maybe him being involved (though likely only dictating it), is the memory of his Iowa caucus concession speech. Where he also gave a short, normal, relatively gracious speech thanking the voters and saying he was looking forward to New Hampshire. And that was on video, it was him. Of course, the then undercut that by spending the next several weeks talking about how the caucuses were rigged. But in the moment there, for whatever reason, he acted normal.
  11. Unexpected (and likely written by a staffer instead of him). But maybe signals to state GOPers to let it go.
  12. I don't really expect that, there's too many national eyes on the state. My bigger concern is that state officials slow walk things beyond the couple weeks they already announced would happen regardless of who won; for months on end. Remember Minnesota in 2008? Franken didn't get seated until July 2009. That was a much closer race, but between friendly state courts and Moore not conceding (assuming he doesn't), this could drag out. At least it looks like Jones won by more than 0.5%, which would rule out the automatic recount. Still, these are welcome problems to have, considering the alternative.
  13. Holy shit. Two things now: Jones needs to win by more than 0.5% to avoid an automatic recount and win by more than the margin of write-in votes so the GOP can't delay certifying the election for weeks/months.
  14. Per the full CNN exit polls, it'll be close; but probably a small Moore win. It sounds like AA turnout is up (as the early exit polls also said), and that Jones did better with white voters than Democrats usually do in the state but probably not by quite enough. Could go either way though: We'll see what the count says.
  15. Don't look at early exits, early exits suck and they always have sucked. They have basically no predictive value on election results. That said: