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About Fez

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    Like A Thundering Lizard
  • Birthday 11/18/1987

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  1. NBA Season 2015/16 - Currying Favor

    With his injury history, I'm not sure he'd risk it. Maybe he will, but if so, I think its because he and Westbrook have agreed to stick together, whether in OKC or elsewhere and Westbrook has a year left. The cap is already going up so much after this season as is.  Also, there's a good chance there will be another lockout beginning at 12:01am July 1, 2017, and if the past is prologue the owners are going to screw over the players hard again. I think the smart move for players is to get a new contract in place before then, with provisions against being altered by a new CBA. And I'm not sure the timing would let Durant do that if he signed a year one deal during this offseason.
  2. U.S. Election - Onward to New Hampshire

    That doesn't address my point. Which is that the number of voters changes over the course of the caucus and if that's not being recorded in tandem with changes in the delegate allocation, there will be major discrepancies. And, as a separate matter, if one caucus did it one way and another caucus another way, then you can't just add up their totals to say that's how many votes candidate X got; its apples to oranges at that point. Scot,  Probably not. But its up to the state if it wants to try to legislate anything. And the parties could always ignore the state if they decided to organize on their own without state funding.
  3. Doom 4's release date has been announced, its May 13, which is over a month before E3. So now I'm really curious what Bethesda will actually be covering during their press conference. Dishonored 2 and FO4 DLC can't be it, can it? If that was all they had, would they really bother having their whole own press conference again this year? Maybe that supposed new IP is much further along than anyone could've guessed.
  4. I'm not saying there aren't written records, I'm saying there's no telling where the information in those records came from and I gave some examples of what different precincts might have done.
  5. The Republicans had a really bad one in 2012, although they do use a different system, so it was different issues. They setup a blue ribbon commission and from what I can tell things basically went off without a hitch this time. I don't think the Democrats had problems like this in 2008 (there was technically a caucus in 2012, but obviously almost no one paid any attention to it), but I don't remember for sure. I think the problem is more that it's been 8 years and all the current party chairs were elected in the past year or two. I'm not even sure if their predecessors were around for '08, or if the party is 2+ generations of leadership past that. I think it just boils down to these crop of chairs being really bad at organizational skills like training and providing clear guidance. I remember reading around two weeks that the party still hadn't filled a couple key statewide oversight positions that were necessary for running the caucus.
  6. I think Iowa Democrats are digging in here because they legit don't have that kind of data. The problem with caucuses is that they go on for a long time, its not a single vote and then you go home. And lots of people do leave before the caucus is complete. I'm sure the party has procedures for precinct captains to follow in this case, but I'm just as sure that they all did different things. For instance: Caucuses where the recorded vote total is from what happened at the start of the caucus but the delegates were awarded based on who was still there at the end of the caucus. Caucuses where the recorded vote total is from who was there at the end of the caucus but the delegates were awarded based on how was there at the start of the caucus. Caucuses where the recorded vote total and awarded delegates are both based on who was there at the end of the caucus. Caucuses where the recorded vote total and awarded delegates are both based on who was there at the start of the caucus, because the record-keeping from later on got screwed up. Caucuses that don't have any original documentation and there's no way to tell where the numbers given to the state party came from. And so on. The whole process was definitely a mess, so much so that I don't think it would possible to truly audit it. There could be an audit just identifying all the examples of the problems that occurred, but to provide actual vote totals would require knowing that the data was reliable, and I don't think that's possible here.
  7. So I logged into steam today, and imagine my surprise when Shadowrun: Hong Kong started downloading a nearly 800MB update. Turns out, with only a couple days warning (and they only said "soon," not "this week") the devs decided to release for free an entire second campaign for the game that takes place in the weeks after the main campaign. From what I can tell, this is the second campaign that was originally a Kickstarter goal that would only be free for backers who gave above a certain amount, but that the devs decided to make free for everyone. Supposedly its quite a bit shorter (around 5 hours long total, whereas the main campaign took me 21 hours), but one can hardly argue about the price. Really looking forward to digging into this when I get a chance.
  8. NFL 2016: Super Bowl in Memory of John Fox

    I think of him as the owner of a legendarily awful restaurant in northern Virginia (I'm not sure if its a chain or the only one). As for the game, I don't think it'll be close. I think Denver will fare better than they did against Seattle two years ago, but they'll still lose by something like 31-14.
  9. Here's the thing though, the super-delegates will never ever throw the nomination to a candidate that didn't have the most committed delegates already*. I think Clinton is going to have a majority of delegates outright well before the convention, so it won't matter. But, as was the case with Obama in '08, if Sanders has the most delegates, the super-delegates will vote for him in the end. The entire super-delegate system is just a patronage system to reward various local party activists and make sure Democratic elected officials feel connected to the party. Its not about overturning election results and truly destroying party unity. That gaudy lead is entirely illusional, really she has a 23-21 lead (probably, Iowa has I think two rounds of state delegate voting before things are finalized). *Maybe in a hypothetical 3-person (or more) race where all 3 candidates had close to the same number of delegates and the one with the most was way out of step with the other two, the super-delegates would throw their support to one of the others. But that'd be a brokered convention anyway, which is a very different matter.
  10. Considering how little Iowa Democrats represent the national party, much whiter, much more liberal, I strongly disagree. What's important is how their delagtes are voting, that's all. 
  11. Iowa Republicans have a different caucus system. And why? The result is likely a 29-21 delegate split in favor of Clinton (she has the six unpledged super delegates), that's all that matters.
  12. They're never released. Eventually some pretty accurate unofficial estimates come out based on the total number of voters info that is released and the officially reported state delegate count (which is separate from the convention delegate count). But that's it. Its because the actual vote totals are basically irrelevant to the caucus system, all that's important is which precincts are won and how many delegates the precinct is worth. Iowa Democrats basically set up a 3-stage mini-version of the electoral college and they've never cared about raw vote totals. Its likely not even something that's been collected in a single place.
  13. I hope ES6 isn't ready for years, because unless Bethesda takes the time to figure out and implement a new type of game, I'm just not going to buy it. FO4 made me realize just how tired I am of the standard Bethesda template. I am really excited for Dishonored 2 though, and I think it and Doom will definitely be featured this year. They are almost certainly both being released this year. FO4 DLC/expansion news will likely be announced as well. Todd Howard has dropped hints about a new IP from time to time for over a year now, and with that Montreal studio Bethesda now has, I wouldn't be surprised at all if there is something happening on that front.
  14. I'm not saying the other classes are all bad. Although I think the Abomination is bad because the cost of healing all that stress is too high, the Leper is bad for the reasons you said, as is the Highwayman.  The Jester and Grave Robber are fine, but require having a very flexible party to be worth while. There's just no need when there are other classes that do the same job without all the movement. I didn't use the Arbalest agains the Swine Prince. I killed him in 3 turns thanks having my bounty hunter getting some crazy crits after the Occultist marked the swine (I don't remember 2 of them, but 1 was 41 damage). I imagine the King and the God will be tougher. But that's just one fight. The rest of the time, Arbalest just isn't good enough. Vestal does good healing. But if you kill the enemies fast enough, you don't need healing. Or rather, the Occultist can cover it, even with the RNGness, while also being able to mark and do higher damage. Plague Doctor can be really good, yeah. But he is situational. I think the Bounty Hunter is balanced because he relies on synergy with other classes to really shine, the Occultist is balanced because as great a support as he is he's not killing enemies on his own, the Crusader is balanced because he can do tons of things well but isn't outstanding at any of them. The Man at Arms is unbalanced because his abilities are all just so incredibly useful (and he has amazing camping abilities) and he can pack a punch, the Hellion is unbalanced because she can do high damage to any enemy from the front position and her dodge is so high that she rarely gets hit, and the Houndmaster is unbalanced because he can do nearly anything from anywhere really well. The way I see it, a party is always improved by replacing a different class with one of those three (unless you're getting rid of your only party healer), and that makes them unbalanced. The Houndmaster in particularly is unbalanced because I think its the only class where you could run a party of just 4 of them and be fine in most circumstances.
  15. My favorite is pretty similar to yours, just with a Hellion in the 1 spot. Sometimes I stick a Crusader in the 2 spot and ditch either the Houndmaster or the other Bounty Hunter. But I feel like the Occultist, Bounty Hounter, Houndmaster, Man at Arms, Hellion, and Crusader are just at a whole other level from the other six classes, and sticking with just them makes the game incredibly easy. The other six classes mostly all have their uses, but it almost never worth taking one over them. Although I did make a Vestal-Plague Doctor-Man at Arms-Hellion party that was pretty fun. Between Bellow and all the stuns, I'd never get hit after the first turn. And if I surprised the enemy, I wouldn't get hit at all.