rotting sea cow

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  1. Will the Westerlands rebel against the Lannisters? Think about it. The people and lords of the Westerlands have fought and died for the Lannisters. Thousands have died in the big battles of the Camps (Riverrun), Oxcross and Blackwater. Many others have died in minor engagements. The Westerlands have bled considerably. I'm sure no one is happy when the gain is not that clear and even less now that winter has arrived. Now Tywin Lannister is dead, the Kingslayer is maimed, the Imp is fled. Also Kevan Lannister is dead and we can be reasonably sure that Devan Lannister and aunt Genna will die in the Riverlands along with a good fraction of the armies accompanying them. The Lannisters are a spent force (quoting Lady Dustin) What are the lords with some blood ties to the Reynes and Tarbecks thinking now? What is that 'truculent' lord Farman of Faircastle planning now? Will the Westerlands respond to Cersei call for additional forces? Discuss
  2. The first resurrection of Beric occurs before or after the birth of the dragons? I'm guessing after, but it isn't clear to me
  3. Are all Lannisters (including those in Lannisport) completely loyal to Tywin's legacy. Isn't there maybe an ambitious distant cousin wanting to replace those arrogant Lannisters at CR? The scenario I have in mind is that they simply refuse to provide Cersei with additional troops (this is rebellion) and then they go full Lords Declarant and seek the approval of Aegon to install a puppet at CR. This certainly will help Aegon's cause as he will face less enemies. We see how complicated can be balancing power among lords in the different regions, why the Westerlands will be so different and follow the Lannisters blindly? If a Stark is restored in Winterfell and tell the northern lords to go fight again in the Riverlands, will they follow?
  4. "A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd" Prophesies in the HOTU
  5. Unless TWOW is a very long book (~2x ADWD), I have hard time imagining that everything can be resolved in two books. Hell, GRRM will probably need a third of the book to resolve the cliffhangings from Feast&Dance
  6. It will be Sansa
  7. Leathers is probably dead. That's why Wun Wun went amok. BTW, I think Val escaped with "Monster" in advance. Whilst calming Wun Wun will be a difficult task, the conspirators have also an extra card against the wildings: hostages. Remember, children from the clan's chiefs were sent to Eastwatch and to the Shadow Tower. Whilst Mallister and Pyke are loyal and honorable in their own way, Cotter is trapped now at Harthome and Ser Glendon Hewett (a friend of Alliser Thorne) has the command. If Alliser indeed returned through Eastwatch and participated in Jon's assassination, there isn't much what the wildings can do.
  8. Theon in ACOK. Not even Victarion can surpass that.
  9. Weird nobody mentioned but if Aegon didn't conquer Westeros, the Others will have showed up perhaps earlier with nobody to counter them. Maybe Aegon's conquest stopped the Others invasion then and there. Harrental seems to me also like a huge blood sacrifice intended to be something else. The timing of Aegon's conquest is also interesting in that respect.
  10. "He (Euron) is here," Victarion told the Barber. "Drop sail. We proceed on oars alone. Command Grief and Iron Vengeance to stand between Silence and the sea. - The Iron Captain, AFFC Later, at the other side of the World "Grief appeared alone at daybreak, her black sails stark against the pale pink skies of morning. " - The Iron Suitor, ADWD Where is Iron Vengeance? Only Grief shows up. Poor Victarion
  11. Two little things that somehow I misremembered - Steelshanks Walton didn't participate in the Red Wedding, he was delivering Jaime to King Landing - Tyrion didn't know that Ice was reforged into two swords until he saw that Ilyn Pyne had another sword (Tyrion didn't ask Tywin from where came the steel for these two swords and Tywin didn't tell)
  12. Found this the other day "Mya shook her head. I remember a man throwing me in the air when I was very little. He stands as tall as the sky, and he throws me up so high it feels as though I'm flying. We're both laughing, laughing so much that I can hardly catch a breath, and finally I laugh so hard I wet myself, but that only makes him laugh the louder. I was never afraid when he was throwing me. I knew that he would always be there to catch me." She pushed her hair back. "Then one day he wasn't. Men come and go. They lie, or die, or leave you." Bob, shame on you.
  13. Myrcella Oldtown, but it may raid Highgarden He'll survive, may call the kingsmoot moot and help to bring down Euron Same as Thoros did with Beric, using the Last Kiss. Does she know that? Will it work at first given that Jon's soul will be "stored" in Ghost? No idea, really. Situation is very chaotic I think it's Ramsay but I'm getting more and more into the Mance's theory. Anyway, I strongly believe it was edited at CB by Clydas and others. I think she turned her cloak judging by the snowmen on the walls of Winterfell. Littlefinger will die, but not sure if in TWOW. Turney will be a clusterfuck. Difficult to predict outcome Take Jeyne Poole to Braavos where she will meet with the real Arya. I think Tyrion will manage to keep Meeren afloat. Yeah, he won't become a maester, scrapping the five year gap put an end to this, but avoided far worse protblems. Sam will find some important documents, meet important people and get a hold in important books and artifacts. Trying to get a hold in a famous book. More importantly for whom is he actually working? No, they will die, even horrifyingly. I'm half a mind they might try a queenmaker 2.0 Sarella? Arianne No one else during the timeline, she is married to Tyrion and only after his death she may marry. I don't know whom. Aegon, but not the son of Rhaegar, but Aegon is his name, all that he has. Tyrion and Jon. Hard to say, those swords are important against the Others. Corspekiller and VS arakh is too strong foreshadowing to be wasted. I think he will become one of the Dany's bloodriders after the death of one of them. Caggo sounds dothraki imo and he is not described physically.
  14. Indeed, this is the explanation I read a time ago and got me convince despited the hints being very subtle.
  15. Of course there are not, but still they are the best we have. Many things can change and many other will not. Until that time we have to soup with whatever meager meal we are given. There are a lot of inconsistencies throughout the books. Don't look with suspicion at every detail, otherwise you will end like Preston Jacobs Yeah, it could be "the hand will have his head", a simple line, but as long as it doesn't happen I will still assume that it refers to the queen. The timelines are always complex here. Mercy seems to be to further inside the book than Arianne's chapters, so there is no necessarily a contradiction. We would need to try to imagine here what would be the following course of action for Varys. If the Tyrells control the IT, they have no reason to switch sides, so after Kevan & Pycelle, poor sweet Tommen should follow as the Tyrell power derives from him, leaving a queen Maergery kingless. She is the next best thing for Aegon after Dany, bringing the power of the Reach (it is very likely than Varys is also underestimating the danger of Euron giving the Redwyne's victory for granted). Now, Aegon has a big problem. How does he make the lords of the realm, many of them tired of war, to believe he is the real deal? Any Targaryen loyalist has been waiting for Dany and suddenly a walking dead shows up. The key here is Dorne, if "his uncle" vouches for him, people will most likely feel more confident, specially if the situation at KL gets very bad. To get Dorne, team Aegon needs to convince Arianne. Will they? What will Arianne demand in change? Will she say "marry me and Dorne is yours"? JonCon will oppose, but if for some reason they get trapped at Storm's End, they might reconsider. She is right there, Maergery is not. Now if Tommen were to die, the heir is Myrcella. Will the Sand Snakes (with the support of the Faith) try to pull a Queenmaker 2.0 against the Tyrells? Or just the sight of Robert Strong will send them in rage? They don't know that Arianne is at SE. There are a lot of actors and uncertainties in this subplot, but I believe that having Cersei (brutally) back in power will help Aegon cause. A realm happy with the Tyrell governance will make everything much more difficult for Aegon.
  16. So, you are willing to accept that Swyft will remain in the Small Council as the Master of Coin, but not that Cersei is back in power as implied by the same chapter? I mean, I understand you. The most logical path is what you describe with the Tyrells full in power. However we have that tidbit of information from Mercy, which is the best we have until TWOW is published, as illogical it may sound. Our scenarios need to consider that, until the God of the ASOIAF Universe (aka GRRM) decides otherwise. This includes that Cersei is back in power, somehow. And it makes sense. Cersei is a PoV who is not yet at the end of her arc and the Tyrells are supporting cast. They are not heroes nor villains. Even their characterization is less prominent than important non-PoV characters like Stannis, Tywin, Varys or Littlefinger, who are key part of the story. Finally, to make it truth the "cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd", i.e. that the people of KL will welcome Aegon with all their hearths, we need that whoever was in the IT must have been despised. The Tyrells are loved.
  17. What makes you think that Harys will retain his position as Master of Coin? The Tyrells have several candidates and Mace is the hand.
  18. I'm actually hoping the opposite. Ashara has been so much abused by the fandom that hopefully GRRM tries to close that hole and remedy his own blind spots and provides us with some insight of what actually happened and why everybody thinks that Jon is Ashara and Ned son. And while we are at it, hopefully enough context about her personality and agency is provided.
  19. But resurrection is a recurring theme in the series. Not only of characters that suffered real death but also in many who have experienced traumatic events that "killed" them in some way (e.g. in PoV, Dany, Tyrion, Bran, Jaime, Cersei, Davos, Theon, Ariianne). So, the point is what you do with your "new life". Clearly LSH is not doing it great, but her resurrection happened in a particular manner after a extremely traumatic event. This is a good point. TBWB reminds me a lot of many irregular groups and guerrillas that started to fight against great injustices, but years of fighting transform them in killing machines with no other purpose than self-preservation. But LSH also serves to show us the perils of resurrection using the "fire kiss". We saw it already with Beric and how his memory was fading and only his mission mattered for him. Now we see how LSH who was resurrected much later after much more traumatic events is completely merciless and focused only on revenge. This raises question what will happen to Jon Snow.
  20. She will know from Harys Swyft and his last exchange with Pycelle.
  21. Pretty much. People misinterpret that scene as confirmation that Aegon is a Targaryen because that is what Varys implies. It is not necessarily so. Books and movies are not the same as real life. Scenes are constructed with narrative purposes in mind. No killer in real life (except a sadist) will waste time in a lengthy discourse. The point of that scene is that we can finally understand Varys and his motivations.
  22. Pretty much a combination of all four. Pycelle even stated that there are "things about the eunuch that will chill the blood". There is also what people would make of Kevan assassination. Killing him together with Kevan would make Cersei to suspect on both Tyrion and the Tyrells who have personal animosity towards Pycelle.
  23. It is possible it has been already put in use, depending who the (un)hooded man is. It is also possible it will be used to take WF if Bran is able to pass that information to Theon.
  24. I think there is mention of a secret passage in and out Winterfell that only Bran knows. So they sent the wolves ahead to confuse the hounds and they came back using that passage
  25. I like this. You may be right. Bran is still a possibility, because he can "visit" this very northern places using the Davos too if he somehow ends in a mission in the Shivering Sea. Indeed, Ghost was foreshadowing Jon's death from the very beginning. This is the main problem here, what would be his mission. He would need to learn it whilst 'death'. Indeed