Graydon Hicks

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  1. yeah, the dothraki are at a major disadvantage, they wear no armor, have no discipline. their are likely the fiercest fighters west of the Bones, but against armored knights they are going to have a problem. but the thing is that their types of mounted combat are so different i dont foresee much of a direct clash, or at least not often. the dothraki are a light cavalry force, fast flanking attacks that tear at the enemy from the side, before moving in for a close melee. mounted knights are going to focus on using their armor, horses, sheer momentum and weight, and lances to their advantage, which means a direct heavy charge, lances bared, to impact the foe with the maximum possible speed and force. at those velocities, a knight might be able to spit up to two un-armored men on one lance. but the dothraki arent going to stand there and meet the charge, their are going to flow around the column, then hit from the sides. now this is where the difference in armor and weapons really takes affect. the knights, and any heavy cavalry, are going to be wearing heavier armor than regular foot, either full plate or mix of plate and chain. the dothraki arahks will have a lot of difficulty against the plate, less so against the chain. but still greater resistance than they have ever faced when killing one another. the arahk just isnt shaped to punch into plate armor. they dont focus enough of the force of a swing at a single point on the blade, the curve spreads it out. a straight blade works better on plate because with a thrust, all that force is focused at the point of the sword. but hammers or axes are better still against plate, the impact force, plus the greater weight of the weapon is directed a much more localized area. the best is something with a spiked point at the weighted end, maximum power focused on the smallest possible point of impact. her best troops t meet the knights and cavalry will be the unsullied. that discipline and training, plus a preference for spears, would world best against a mounted force.
  2. oh i agree the snow will come, i just dont think it will be nearly as bad in essos as it is westeros.
  3. i disagree. for one, we do know that hoster knew what lysa and petyr had done, because he sent petyr home as soon as he found out and made lysa drink moontea to abort the pregnancy. lysa was wanting to marry petyr, thats why she slept with him and wanted his baby. she slept with him one night when he was drunk, im not sure when that was, but petyr was so wasted he thought it was catelyn he was with, thats why he was telling people he had taken her maiden head. then he slept with lysa again, this time knowing full well what he was doing. thats the one that got her pregnant. as for the abduction location, all i know was that it was within 10 leagues, 70 miles, of harrenhall. now, we know that harrenhal is east of riverrun, on the gods eye lake, and fairly close to kingslanding. now if petyr was being sent back to the vale at the time of the "abduction", he would have traveled in a straight line cross country, he would have taken the nearest main road or river that ran in the general direction he needed to go, he would have taken either the riverroad, which runs from the golden tooth, to the trident. or he would have taken barge or boat down the red fork to the saltpans. either way puts him passing within the 10 league radius of harrenhal. remember that no one has specifically said the exact location lyanna and rhaegar left from, only that it was within 10 leagues of harrenhal, likely on the kingsroad, since lyanna was supposed to be on her way to riverrun. now, i have already had someone tell me in a earlier post that petyr was supposed to already be in the vale, and that shoot down my theory, i was simply trying to explain how the theory works only if petyr was either still in riverrun or had come across lyanna on the road.
  4. it also helps them that they dont have a full land connection to the deep north. the northern border of essos stops at the shivering sea, and i bet that the currents and weather patterns off the ocean do a lot to blunt the effect. look at the british isles: they are an equal latitude with scandinavia, and a healthy chunk of russia/siberia, but they dont have nearly the same degree of freezing weather that either of those locations have, because the ocean climate mitigates the cold. granted, essos is not an island, but the sheer amount of water separating them from the arctic circle of their world probably does much the same thing.
  5. and there are likely still more resource in the north that aren't exploited simply because there isnt the population to make full use of them. outside of dorne, it is the least developed of the realms, so i actually wouldnt be surprised if there was large deposits of ore in the mountains east of queenscrown. the northern fields could likely support a healthy amount of high latitude grains. im not a botanist or farmer, but doesnt rye or barley grow reasonably well in those kind of temperatures? and give that the only real source of lumber in western essos is quohor, i bet many of the coastal cities of the narrow sea have a hefty appetite for wood. but it does seem that outside the manderlys of white harbour, most northern lords dont seem to concern themselves with trade. not that money isnt important to them, but i dont think it registers in their minds on the same level of priority as it does with the southern lords.
  6. actually, they do use dragonbone bows. dany described one at her wedding to drogo that was longer then she was tall. on the tactics side, i think the dothraki would be hell on wheels, or rather hooves, against the regular foot men, the kind of momentum they could bring while swinging an arahk from horse back would shear into the light armor of the foot troops, just not as easily as they are used to when fighting each other. but against armor knights, the arahk would be less effective. oh, they'll definitely get lots of kills, but the first blow likely wont punch through the armor, but it will knock them on their asses. thats a lot of force behind those blows. i think she should focus on using her unsullied against the knights and more heavily armored forces, and use her dothraki to carve pieces off the foot men, and deal heavy damage to the supply trains. and once the enemy get massed to charge against an unsullied phalanx line, then the dragon swoop in and strafe the grouped targets with fire.
  7. the fic is "A Stitch in Time" by Will O'the Wisp, on after i read that scene, it made me think. if petyr was any position to corsspaths with the message, then the theory is actually quite sound, knowing the kind of person littlefinger is and how he operates. you dont really change your methods as you age, you just refine them. i would say, that if, and only if, he was still in riverrun, it would easy for him to get a hold of the message and alter it. as simple as telling the messanger "oh, dont worry, ill take to the maesters/rookery for you." then fiddle with it in route. or, he comes across lyanna and rhaegar on the road and offers to deliver the message for her, thats plausible. now, im not saying he personally knew lyanna, maybe not have even seen her. but in all the riverlands, the tullys would the family that lyanna woudl have had the most contact with, even if only peripherally, through her brother. so it would make sense for her to send the message their way first, and have them relay it to winterfell via raven.
  8. well, we have seen evidence that the targaryen valyrian traits are genetic recessive. almost any time a targ has a child with a non-valyrian, the the non-valyrian side is much more dominate in the child. so maybe he doesnt have any dragon dreams, but he is warging in his sleep, like all the stark children, and he might even be showing some of his latent greensight as well, so the first men blood is proving stronger in him than his father's valyrian blood? that does lead me to think that it will prove interesting if he comes face to face with a dragon? if he can skinchange into one of them, he might have more control over it than any valyrian has ever had over any dragon.
  9. ok, you do mention several bastards rising high in central westeros, like brynden rivers becoming hand of the king, but i did mention that many of the better treated bastards arre highborn, like edric storm. and bloodraven, along with all his illegitimate siblings, were legitimized by aegon the 4th.
  10. now, you are forgetting that the free cities control large tracts of land around their respective capitals, whre they grow a great deal of food to feed the large urban populations. in fat, i read somewhere that kevan lannister was discussing purchasing grain from the free cities in preparation for the long winter, since the wars have cost them much of the time and man power that would be otherwise working the farms and fields. so the free cities do export food stuffs that produce themselves, likely trading such items back and forth with each other, and to the other cities and city states of essos. in fact, ive been wondering just how much do the funky seasons affect essos? do they even experience the long winters? i dont think ive ever read or heard anyone from essos talk about preparing for winter.
  11. the north is simply far more rustic. its also the most removed from the capital, and doesnt play the "game" nearly as much as the southern realms do. there just isnt all that much to attract the economic interests of the free cities, and most of the rest of westeros view them and their First Men culture as extremely barbaric. remember the just about everyone south of the Neck, save for a very few old first men houses in the vale, riverlands and mountains of dorne, are andal by either ethnicity or faith in worshiping the seven gods of andalos, while the north is almost purely blood and faith of the First Men. so the north tends to get forgotten on the way side most of the time when folks look at economics or international polcies while sitting in the red keep. whenthe north does get involved with the south, it either turned out really bad for the south, or really bad for the north. the crownlands maybe doing very well economically since the beginning the targaryen dynasty, with relatively easy access across the narrow sea to the free cities, but they a smaller population compared to the other realms. not as much territory. in fact, i think their greatest military strength was they were the primary source for the royal navy, both in providing the ships, and the locals to base them in. sunspear in dorne might have a strong economy, but they very resource poor. they grow olives, and have a sour wine, but i would guess, judging by the population focus to the coast, most of their livelihood comes fishing, or being a sea trade stopping point, like the free cities. not actually producing anything to export, but being where merchants can gather and exchange goods. then having the goods taxed as they enter and leave port. while the reach has the greatest amount of greenboys to make up its force (they likely just throw bodies at the problem til it goes away), they also likely have the largest number of full knights. and the iron isles have a tradition of men either being fishermen to fed the isles, or reavers to fight. if you did anything else, you werent an iron islander, you were a thrall.
  12. very well, that kills my theory. i dont think lyanna ran off with rhaegar without leaving a message to be sent to winterfell, explaining herself to her family. at the same time, i read something, a fanfiction, where proposed a theory to me that made a certain amount of sense, that lyanna sent a message, but had asked petyr to deliver/send it on to her family and robert, but bealish altered it and used it to make sure that brandon would go to kings landing, knowing what brandon would ask for and how aerys would react. but ive been trying to figure, if it was a valid theory, how would petyr crossed paths with the message. if he was in the vale, maybe he intercepted the message being sent to robert, then used robert to convince brandon to go to the capital, but thats an even flimsier theory.
  13. oh yeah, i remember the crusades. the ottomans knew how to fight in a desert. i'd say that the dornish are as skilled as anyone, look at oberyn. but they are also smart. the dornish have never really fought out side of their lands, save for relatively small invasion of the reach, like when they attacked oldtown, and strikes up into the southern stormlands. but other than that, they never really had the aggressive expansionist goals that the stormlords, ironborn, and other westerosi had, they tended to stick close to home, and have never truly been beaten on their own turf, save by dareon the young dragon, and he lost 10,00o taking it, and 40,000 holding it. the martells are very true to their house words.
  14. wow, this must the "I Hate Daenerys Targaryen" club house. yall folks be mean to the poor girl.