Hajk1984

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About Hajk1984

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  1. Well I suppose we're at an impasse unless we have more information then. We do know that Dany does not apparently have the ability to call the banners in areas that she is supposedly controlling as her only armies seem to still be Dothraki and Unsullied. But the show has dropped the ball. In the books they'd show us who is running the areas that have lost their lords. Since we are shown no on screen evidence of Dany actually controlling any region other than Dragonstone, I resort to the default as Cersei. Again we have no idea if any major lords anywhere have bent the knee. Has she appointed wardens that are administering areas? Niether the Unsullied not the Dothraki are capable of anything like that and she seems quite short on administrators. If the Iron Throne does not still hold their allegiance, then who is running these areas? Or is every other lord effectively independent right now? That seems implausible.
  2. Yeah I've read the released letter. He takes the position of warden and proclaims Dany the Queen. Nothing substantial here that doesn't already appear in Sansa's conversation with Littlefinger. Littlefinger is the one who wants to use this to create friction. Sansa plays him and ultimately executes him.
  3. I suspect some in the group (e.g. Tormund and the Hound) would care little for respect in the face of certain death if someone else wielding the sword them a better chance. And I doubt Jon would object.
  4. Not really. Cersei hasn't pulled her forces back to the capital. Just because Dany has presence there doesn't mean that Cersei has been pushed back there. In that case Dany would literally have control of the whole continent other than the North and the Vale. But take a historical example: Imperial Rome did not pull its legions back from its imperial territories even when Hannibal was at the gates of the city. Or a more recent example, The British Empire did not pull its forces back from its empire even when the Nazis were bombing the crap out of the mainland. Dany has forces in the Crownlands (the Dothraki after the 7x04 battle). If Cersei is really restricted to just KL is she really even worth bothering with so much right now? One city wouldn't give her the importance they seem to be giving her.
  5. I think if there was going to be friction on this issue it would have been obvious. Sansa knows about it, as does Arya I gather. Bran certainly does (he has the scroll in his hands when Sam visits). I suspect Sansa would have already told the Northern lords and gotten them under control by the time Jon comes. The idea in the finale was that the pack is getting together, not fighting with itself. And for now, at least, Jon is the pack alpha. By the time anything about his paternity comes out they'll be fully involved in the war against the NK, and I doubt anyone will have any time for something like this.
  6. But in 7x06 she is still complaining about about losing Dorne and Highgarden. How much of the Lannister army was destroyed? The loot train battle was quite close to Kingslanding from what I can gather (Jaime showed up in nearly the same state at the Red Keep and told Cersei that he "just saw the Dothraki fight"). Oldtown (main city I gather) is in the Reach and the way the citadel Maesters are speaking of things in 7x05 does not make it look like Dany is queen there yet. We don't know what parts of the Lannister army are where. Who even controls Dorne any longer? The paramount house Martell has been eliminated in toto. Does that mean that for now it is directlly under the Iron Throne? And who controls the Reach? House Hightower should be a good candidate to be raised to paramount status but has never been mentioned in the show. Did it say anywhere in the show that she has control of all road to the Westerlands? I may have missed that. That would require her to have a heavy Riverland presence. The Reach is the most populous area, so why isn't she calling the banners there rather than moving the unsullied and Dothraki North? I think they simply didn't consider the variables or numbers properly.
  7. At this juncture, is it clear what territory Dany actually holds? Her statements about "As soon as I march away, she marches back", and "half the country" make little sense if she doesn't have Dorne and the Reach. The North and Vale are currently allied, and at least in theory behind Jon. In the Westerlands the Unsullied took one major castle. I saw no indication that she has any significant presence in the Stormlands, or Riverlands. The Iron Islands are held by Euron. For now, does she acually control anything other than Dragonstone? I assume she has managed to annex chunks of territory ere and there but it sems very unclear. For all practical purposes it looks like Cersei still holds all the mainland other than the North and the Vale. When it comes to her armies, she has only the Unsullied and the Dothraki (who are marching North at her orders). What about the many lords in the areas she has conquered (if she has conquered any)? Why aren't they being ordered to call their banners and march North? It's all very confused.
  8. I hope the alliance with Jon can help her with this too. From what I can make out, currently she has a big army but not much territory. Jon just handed her half the realm (area-wise at least, and if the Vale is included then some very fertile area untouched by war as well). As Robert's rebellion shows, Stark and Arryn banners moving to remove the current occupant of the Iron Throne will not cause the sort of nationalistic resentment that plagues her now. I had forgotten Stannis' line. but yes, it may seem to fit her quite well. And once Jon's taint of bastardy is removed, a marriage with him will make her acceptance in Westeros more likely. No one can call him a foreigner.
  9. Moreover, in 7x06, the Fellowship of the wight included some decent fighters (Hound, Jorah, Berric, Thoros etc.). Who took on the White Walker? No one in the group even suggested that the Valyrian blade ought to be wielded by another in this desperate situation. Who actually stayed on the ground to make sure that the others would get on the dragon? Who seemed to be the best to be the last one on? It makes sense if he is supposed to be the best.
  10. I think we have strong reasons to believe that Tyrion is betraying Dany by the end. Unfortunately, I feel that this is a fairly strong possibility. First of all we still have (in the books) the “betrayal for love” prophecy hanging over Dany. I don’t believe Jon will be the betrayer there. Tyrion is a more shady character than he has been portrayed in the show. The ending of the series and show are going to be the same, so if Tyrion is going that way in one it will happen in the other. Now let’s look at the 7th season. Tyrion has constantly tried to restrain Daenerys. As he outright admits to Cersei, he has been trying to keep their family safe. This is the exact inverse of the impression he has given Dany (and one which she is very right to doubt). The one occasion on which Daenerys actually uses her forces is something he is extremely unhappy with. He is afraid for Jaime and afraid for what Daenerys’ military superpower status actually means for the Lannisters. For me one of the the most suspicious scenes in the whole season is the scene in Dany’s council room where he proposes the Wight Hunt plan. Remember that at this point in time, Dany does not really believe in the Northern threat (or does not believe in it as a serious threat). This is confirmed by her many times afterwards. She is still focused on Cersei. Even Cersei knows that it would be absurd to expect Dany to offer peace at this juncture because she just won a major victory and is winning the war. Tyrion knows this quite well. He tells Jaime that Daenerys will win this war. But Dany does have very strong growing feelings for Jon. Tyrion realizes this. The only way to possibly stop Daenerys from using her military might to annihilate Cersei and to offer a truce seems to be to manipulate these feelings to his advantage (notice that right before this scene in the council, Varys and Tyrion are discussing what happened to the Tarlys, and that they have to figure out some way to make her listen to them). So he does so. He argues that Cersei believes that the army of the dead is just a myth. So Jon should go an fetch a wight to give her evidence of the contrary. The problem with this is that his own Queen shares Cersei’s viewpoint on this question at this juncture. However, Daenerys wants to give Jon a chance to prove the claim he has been making ever since he showed up on her doorstep. Even Jon knows this (he tells Tormund that he needs to convince both Queens). Tyrion sees that 1) Jon wants to go back to the North and face some dangerous threat in a war; and 2) That Daenerys does not want him going back into such a situation with inadequate military support. He decides to leverage this to get a truce with the Lannisters. He argues that Jon be given a chance to prove this to Cersei (suppressing that Daenerys doesn’t believe it either at this point–something that she doesn’t want to say outright either, however). Daenerys is initially ready to sign off on this. She probably thinks it will keep Jon on Dragonstone (which is clearly where she wants him) and perhaps settle this issue once and for all (he hasn’t volunteered to go himself at this juncture, but Tyrion probably knew that he would, knowing who he was). But once she effectively signs off on it (a militarily bizarre course for her Hand to suggest because it gives her enemies respite for a non-existent threat), it is difficult to reverse course when Jon also volunteers. And so the stupid Wight Hunt plan initiates (even Jon knows its stupid). Dany declares s truce and agrees to meeting Cersei instead of attacking. Then we have what happens in 7x07. We never see the end of the conversation between Tyrion and Cersei. Why would she agree? Tyrion knows her well. It is extremly doubtful that she would agree for some false reason which he wouldn’t see through at once. Cersei has never managed to pull the wool over Tyrion’s eyes so well. And yet he never suggests afterwards that she may be tricking Daenerys. Why not? Since when did Tyrion become so unsuspecting of her? That may be Jaime, but not Tyrion. More telling, however is Cersei telling Jaime that he was “the stupidest Lannister” for not realizing that she was not going to keep her word. Which suggests quite strongly that Tyrion realizes this already (otherwise why wouldn’t he be the stupidest?) So I suspect that the traitor Tyrion theory has much merit. The show has gone out of its way to show Daenerys doing some things that would make Tyrion question his allegiance to her. It would be sad, of course. Tyrion finally found someone who didn’t judge him for his stature and treated him with the respect he never found elsewhere. She clearly cares for him (she actually does care quite deeply for anyone in her inner circle–as the books make clear), hell even apologizes for making a joke that may seem unintentionally offensive to dwarves. And she has seen betrayal quite often. I think the situation is far more complex than that, even though the show has not emphasized it in all cases. But they have indicated that. Daenerys’ no. 1 problem for now (before knowing about the Northern threat) is that Westerosi society is not willing to accept her as a Westerosi. This despite the fact that she has spent her whole lifetime thinking of Westeros as home and was born on Dragonstone. On this Cersei’s propaganda has been excellent. Dany currently has an army of Dothraki, whom all of Westeros (and the world) sees as vicious uncivilized barbarians with no appreciation of anything of any value and whose traditions are abhorrent. She has an army of former Eunuch slaves, EACH ONE of whom is trained by killing a newborn baby plucked from the mother. So vicious barbarians and baby murderers. And she was carried to Westeros by a faction of the Iron Born who have the worst reputation in Westeros as pirates etc. That is what she has. And three dragons. The men she surrounds herself with have little more to improve her image with. Tyrion, a kinslayer (one of the most heinous crimes in Westeros is to kill your own parent) and (popularly) a kingslayer. Jorah Mormont, a former slaver exile who had been condemned to death by the famously honorable Eddard Stark. Theon Greyjoy who is hardly respected by anyone in Westeros and betrayed the people who raised him. Not a single person of honor seems to follow her or align with her. This problem was not faced by the Mad King. He still had people like Arthur Dayne and Barristan Selmy serving him. Dany did have Barristan for a while, but even he is already dead and cannot speak for her. Even the Citadel Maesters (normally a rather skeptical bunch) seem to have the worst expectations of the Dragon Queen. On top of this she has to deal with the fact that the country’s most recent memory of Targaryen rule is not the centuries before her, but that of her own father, the Mad King (on the basis of whose name she is trying to claim the throne). Cersei has used these facts to vilify her quite well. It explains some of the Tarly reluctance to bend the knee to her as well. Tyrion’s initial idea was legitimate (i.e. to use Dornish and Tyrell forces, rather than foreign forces). Westerosi nationalism will not be offended by Westerosi forces and banners. Destroying central cultural landmarks like the Red Keep (which has been the seat of government for centuries) will only solidify this narrative further. The foreign conqueror who destroyed cultural symbols etc. will only unite the country behind Cersei further. In such circumstances, she could try to take the city, but will not be able to hold it for long anyhow. Once the people hate her and her foreign armies, they’ll give her guerrilla insurgencies far worse than the Harpy she faced in Meereen. And she’ll face this not just in one city but all over the continent. Against this, dragons are useless. Her Dothraki and unsullied won’t be safe unless they are camped outside the cities (and who’ll run the cities then?) and so on. So Cersei’s strategy of cutting out her Westerosi allies first and foremost was actually quite clever. She has managed to exclude Dany from the narrative as being another Westerosi power player and turned her into a foreigner who will destroy the Westerosi way of life and hence created much nationalist sentiment against her. In modern terms, Westerosi people are seeing her as someone who is trying to create regime change on the basis of her superior but completely foreign forces. As we know from modern examples, once this sort of perception sets in, people will often even unite behind terrible leaders to fend off the foreign threat first. Seeing this, Cersei’s demand that Jon stay away from the fight makes excellent sense as well, since if the North allies with her, Daenerys can get some much needed Westerosi credibility. When it comes to these complications, I’m not sure Dany understands the situation too well. Back in Meereen when Tyrion first met her, her perception was quite simple. She thought that having large armies and dragons would win her the throne. Tyrion pointed out the error of the view to her even then. It is worth noting that the Targaryens were only able to conquer six of the seven kingdoms (the North capitulated without a fight to avoid any casualties) and were never able to conquer Dorne even with Aegon the conqueror’s large dragons because the Dornish used the same guerrilla tactics and abandoned castles etc. whenever dragon attack seemed imminent. They tried a direct land invasion under King Daeron 1 Targaryen. Daeron lost 10,000 men conquering Dorne and then lost 50,000 more trying to hold it after massive uprisings that eventually threw Targaryens out of Dorne. Dorne actually has lesser numbers than the other kingdoms. In terms of numbers the Reach may have the most. In terms of area the North is as big as the other six combined. Dorne was only finally brought into the Targaryen fold via marriage. This was probably what Tywin was talking to Oberyn about in an early season 4 episode about how Dorne managed to avoid the Targaryen fold for 200 years. I’m not sure Dany has full appreciation of these complexities as Tyrion undoubtedly should (his book version knows it all beyond a doubt as he is quite erudite in terms of history). The show has also done a bad job of showing what Dany actually holds for now. She doesn’t hold the Crownlands (Cersei does), the Iron Islands (Euron does), the North (Jon does), the Vale (Littlefinger allied to the North did), the Westerlands (even though one castle, Casterly Rock was taken). Does she hold the Riverlands or the Stormlands? There is no clear sign. And she keeps saying that she lost Dorne and Highgarden. Yet she keeps saying that Cersei will retake “half the country” if she goes North. But which “half” of the country does she actually hold? The North is half the country in terms of area and she doesn’t hold it yet. Has she regained control of the Reach? Samwell was at the Citadel which is in the main city of the Reach an the Maesters certainly didn’t speak like Dany was Queen there. In practical terms it still seems like Cersei holds the entire country other than the North &Vale and the island of Dragonstone. So under these conditions, I do not feel Tyrion’s plans have been bad. Dany’s greatest advantage is in open field battles (like the loot train) where her forces and dragons can be used with full effectiveness while causing little resentment among the population at large. Maybe the alliance with the North and possible marriage with Jon with help her with some of these problems.
  11. Well Jon needs Daenerys to commit. He does not have the resources to put up a competent defense. That's been his whole arc this season. Daenerys is extremely reluctant to commit unless Cersei can be made to stand down while she's up in the North. At this juncture they know the NK is close but they don't know how soon he'll manage to breach the wall. The Ice Viserion was unexpected and probably accelerated things more than Jon expected. Anyhow, Jon was not conscious at Eastwatch and Daenerys only had 2 dragons there. Formidable, but vulnerable.
  12. Yes I think this is true as well. After all the diary only proves that Rhaegar and Lyanna married. It doesn't prove that Jon resulted from that union. The second fact is known only through Bran's visions. This means that unless the whole world starts believing the 3-ER Jon would be in the same situation as fake "Aegon" in the books, i.e. only Daenerys acknowledging him would legitimize his claim in the eyes of people.
  13. I think it's up to him how far he sees something. He had seen Jon's birth scene before but only saw the "Aegon" bit when prompted by Sam to take a second look. I think he does feel but not in the same way as we ordinarily do. He does say that he is "sorry" that bad things happened to Sansa.
  14. Ned was hardly the only one. Jon Arryn presumably had the same view. And Stannis was not too far off. Of course in the end it is irrelevant whether Tyrion accepts something as proof. What matters is whether Daenerys will accept it as proof. And we do not know what force Bran's words will have. If he can convince everyone of his miraculous knowledge (which should not be an issue). I suppose I am more optimistic about this. I don't think that what is being built by the show etc. as THE central love story of the entire saga will eventually devolve into another dynastic power struggle/ game of thrones etc., essentially justifying the worldview of characters like Cersei ans Tywin as the truth with respect to all issues. We have no knowledge of how official this diary was. The citadel had it. If they can verify its authenticity (presumably they'd know) then I don't see why it isn't evidence.
  15. This second option has some support from the books. In them it is mentioned that Daenerys is the only one whose claim is beyond any doubt. The supporters of the supposed Aegon (not in the show) are desperate that she acknowledge him (he has the Golden Company supporting him) as only that would bring legitimacy to his claim in the eyes of people at large. Could Daenerys do this? Could she be willing to share the throne if she believes it? Perhaps. They've pushed the love story and the "together" motif quite forcefully this season for them. Maybe she would. I don't think this will be an issue in the show. The High Septon is basically the Pope. If he annulled the marriage and granted a new one, I expect that most legal hurdles would have been removed. Whether his diary is evidence or not is up to the writers. Remember Ned thought that repetition of dark hair was evidence that Cersei was cheating and banging Jaime.