S John

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About S John

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    2012: Ottergeddon
  • Birthday 06/23/1984

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  1. All of whom are often dismissed as 'RINOs'. That label won't stick to Sessions.
  2. But up until now most of Trumps shenanigans has been directed at degrading targets they can approve of - Obamacare, immigrants, the liberal media. Now that Trump is trying to ruin one of their own in Sessions it might be a whole new ballgame. Maybe not, but this is a little bit different from his antics toward thier fellow R's during the campaign.
  3. Re: Sessions, not a fan at all, but I'd like to see him hold his ground. I think this might be the first issue of the Trump era where I'm starting to see some fracturing in the Trump base. It makes Trump look ungrateful to his oldest Washington ally, paranoid about the Meuller investigation, and cowardly in the way he's tried to tweet the AG to death. Of course there are still many who maintain they are thankful that we finally have a president who 'runs things like a business' (lol) and when you don't do your job at a business you get fired. Not sure what kind of businesses those folks have been around, but anyway, on social media and elsewhere I've seen quite a few in the Trump camp getting a little squirmy over this one. Hope the dumpster fire keeps rolling. The more conflicts within the administration the less effective they are going to be at inflicting a crappy agenda onto the rest of us. It's starting to get to the point where enough time has passed that they should be on the verge of getting thier shit together but with Spicer, Tillerson, Sessions all in the news for the wrong reasons in the past week the admin appears to be unraveling instead. The more disorganized they continue to be, the more likely it is that this whole experience is not going to be a new era, but the going away party for the viability of hard right politics at the national level. I'm in awe of the extent to which they've bungled this opportunity thus far, and I hope they continue to do so.
  4. Hope Melissa McCarthy rolls out Spicey just one more time.
  5. I thought Freeze was one of them Bible-thumpin' types. Always just a little bit richer when its a holy roller who goes down for hookers.
  6. Defintely a potential landmine, but I'll give it a chance.
  7. I agree that is a likely scenario, but I don't think it'll fly. There is no escaping the fact that R's control congress and the White House. Obviously there are plenty of hyper-partisans out there who will jump at the chance to go along with that line but it won't work in the margins. It will be impossible to deny the obvious - they had control and squandered it.
  8. They need some new blood to emerge - and soon, but they aren't done. These things are cyclical, even with gerrymandering. Trump's approval rating is the lowest of any president at this point in his presidency and it does not look like he is equipped to drastically improve those opinions. With some fluctuations here and there I'd expect him to continue to shed supporters as it gets harder and harder to ignore how full of shit he is. His base is still intact mostly, but it's only been 7 months. And the Republicans continue to fail at solving their most threatening long-term problem which is demographics. I'm admittedly inclined towards optimism, but when I see the Trump crew on TV I see the desperate dying gasp of those not well equipped for the realities of 21st century. The 2016 election was a major setback for social issues, the climate, healthcare reform, and improving economic equality, but I don't see it as the final say on all of those things. Trump supporters tend to be old and white and the only way the R's are going to bring in more young people, more minorities, and more people of color is by actually doing an incredible job and improving the lives of voters in a tangible way. But what has happened so far instead is that they are fucking up. They've got a guaranteed two year window to fundamentally change this country with a flurry of regressive legislation but they obviously do not have a coherent plan and Trump is a terrible leader on legislative issues, he just wants sign things with his big pen, golf, and tweet. If things continue like this it is entirely possible that the political make-up of the presidency and congress looks very different in 4 years. And even if they get it together and succeed at implementing a conservative agenda (especially on issues like healthcare) I think there's a good possibility that when the American people get a dose of what that entails the R's own agenda could bite them in the ass at the polls. Trump was all about jobs, jobs, jobs - but many of the industries he championed are in dying industries that have been heavily automated. Those aren't coming back in the numbers it would take to revitalize the rust belt and in 2020 it should not be difficult to demonstrate that Trump's campaign bluster for 2016 was mostly a bunch of bull shit. Gonna be a long 4 years, though, that much is for sure. IMO Trump hates Obamacare mainly because it has Obama's attached to it. Obama made fun of him to his face in public once, and now Trump wants to destroy his legacy. And I think scrubbing out Obama's legacy is a major motivation for congressional republicans as well. If the solution is to 'fix' Obamacare, but it remains fundamentally Obamacare - that isn't good enough.
  9. Though it is typical of that generation to want to kick the can down the road and it does buy them time, straight repeal is politically very risky, imo. What the last few months have shown is that a Republican congress cannot agree on a replacement plan and I don't think there is good reason to believe that two more years to think about it will cure the problem - they've already had 7 years to come up with something they could all vote for. If they can all vote on a repeal, that gives them something to hang their hats on for now, but they are taking a huge risk that replace doesn't get done in the intervening two years. The two year delay gives the moderate Republicans cover w/ their constituents to say that they planned on a better replacement getting done and that's why they repealed, but everyone has to be wondering if the ultra-conservative wing of the party will ever be brought to the table on something viable. If they succeed in coming up with a replacement, recent events indicate that it'll probably be a turd of a bill. If they don't succeed they will have to either extend OCare to buy yet more time, or they let Obamacare die with no replacement ready and millions of people lose health insurance. I don't see any of those outcomes as good ones for the Republicans in 2018 or 2020.
  10. What is amusing to me is that congressional Republicans put a straight repeal bill on Obama's desk but don't have the stones to put one on Trump's out of fear that he will actually sign it. That should tell everyone something, but I'm afraid that in today's polarized climate it may be lost on much of the conservative rank and file just how utterly full of shit that makes the Republicans look on healthcare. They begged for voters to put them in power with repealing Obamacare as thier primary battle cry, but as it turns out a fair few of them don't want their names attached to a bill that will harm thier most vulnerable constituents. They really painted themselves into a catch 22 on this, waffling between doing the thing they repeatedly promised they'd do while knowing deep down that ownership of a new, even shittier healthcare bill will probably cost a bunch of 'em thier jobs - as will a full repeal, as will any substantial cuts to Medicaid. The optics are terrible and would absolutely and rightfully be used against them by democrats. They can either break campaign promises and do nothing, do a full repeal, or stick the country with a worse thing than we had before. All 3 options are so politically terrible that I can't believe the party leadership allowed Obamacare repeal/replace to be such a staple of the platform. OCare has its flaws for sure, but the R's are calling thier own bluff right now. It increasingly looks as though healthcare reform will require the help of Democrats and it'll be interesting to see where that takes us. Likely to a dead end until 2018 or 2020 - but I think Trump just wants to sign something big into law that supersedes the big thing that Obama did. So, while he's not really helping, he's not the obstacle here either and I wonder if democrats and the more moderate republicans might actually be able to cobble together some legitimate ACA improvements. Not holding my breath, but it would be nice to see.
  11. The popular saying when you are doing one of these forms is that they aren't looking or saints, they're looking for liars.
  12. When I read what his supporters say on this topic it seems that they believe that the Democrats and media attacking Trump constantly, or "liberal hysteria" as they'd put it, is only going to work to the end of pushing RealAmericansTM who are fed up with this crap further and further away from the Democrats. I have never been a Trump supporter and the only way Trump could've won me over would be by completely ignoring everything he said he was going to do during his campaign, rounded off by a complete 180 in his personal demeanor. At this point I am certainly hopelessly biased against him and I don't think there is really anything he could do for me to want to vote for him in 2020. So my personal read of the situation would be the opposite of my first paragraph - that if Americans are going to be fed up with anything in 2020 it is going to be Trump and that he has to be sloughing off support at a steady rate to the point where he'll have his base in 2020 but nobody else.. because he just has to be losing people, right? right?!?! - but that isn't the way his supporters see things and I can't tell if my own bias is clouding my read on the situation. I just don't really know. Polls would seem to bear out that Trump is in fact not very popular, but will that actually translate to votes when people who voted for him the first time are faced with voting for a Democrat or staying at home? And who are the Democrats going to put against him who can withstand how nasty the campaign is going to be?
  13. I watched Downton Abbey pretty recently and I really liked it overall, but it did struggle a bit towards the end. I wasn't feeling the revived Bates / Anna murder mystery either or the Carson / Hughes romance that felt like they just kinda threw that in there to warm the hearts of grandmother's everywhere. Still it is without a great show and I was surprised by how much I liked it after years of rolling my eyes at people for telling me to watch it. Agree with others that I'm not sure how I feel about anything Downton related without Maggie Smith though. Her character was great and she killed it in the role. Definitely one of the aspects of the show I liked the most.
  14. Sometimes I wonder how much of Trump's entire agenda, such as it is, hearkens back to the time Obama roasted him at the White House Correspondents Dinner. Like, I'm not even sure that Trump thinks universal healthcare coverage is a bad thing - maybe he just wants to undo everything with Obama's name on it because Obama once had a room full of powerful people laughing at Donald.
  15. I agree that now that he's building a political track record, the media should be more focused on that. That said, while his base does love his shit-talking, nobody else does. And Trump has not won over any of his detractors either. He will continue to embarrass the office of the presidency on twitter and IRL for the next 3 1/2 years. He made bold promises during the campaign that he will never be able to fulfill. He promised to repeal and replace Obamacare with something that was cheaper and better coverage, he promised to build a wall that Mexico would pay for. Neither of those things are going to happen. Most R's ultimately voted for him in 2016 but I think it was a leap of faith for a good many of them, and I'm not sure that all of them will do it again in 2020. I just cannot see America signing up for four more years of this guy, especially if he doesn't deliver any major policy victories. IMO the R's are already flirting with disaster on the healthcare bill. They get it passed and soon there will be politically unsavory examples of people negatively affected by losing their healthcare and if they do not get something passed they are going to take heat for whining for 6 years but not actually doing anything when given the opportunity by the voters. All combined with the fact that probably only about 35% of the country does not find the president embarrassing. Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I'm thinking this little experiment will have run its course for enough people that Trump is likely to be a 1-term president.