tze

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  1. Tyrek Lannister

    A man's daughter ostensibly inherits before his brother everywhere. In practice, however, vague inheritance "laws", coupled with widespread misogyny, mean that that daughter will likely find herself in trouble should her uncle decide to stake a claim. Cersei inherited Casterly Rock because none of her male relatives objected. Kevan could have chosen to make a play for the Rock, and if he had, Cersei's position would have been far from secure. To foment chaos in the future. This is one major reason why I think "Littlefinger has him" makes more sense than "Varys has him", actually. Varys needs an amenable Lord of Casterly Rock to help stabilize Aegon's reign, but he already has that in Tyrion. Littlefinger, on the other hand, requires chaos to thrive. (And Tyrek was 13 years old when he vanished---and do we have precedent for Littlefinger grabbing a 13-year-old highborn heir, intending on using that heir's relative youth and fears to manipulate her?) As Jaime pointed out, "Tyrek had served King Robert as a squire, side by side with Lancel. Knowledge could be more valuable than gold, more deadly than a dagger." Tyrek might very well have seen something he shouldn't have. It's possible that Tyrek was convinced (either pre or post-kidnapping, if in fact he was grabbed) that he was in danger from his own family members because he "knew too much", which would make him amenable to some anti-Lannister plans. Moreover, his youth and his vulnerability (as Tyrek's father was long since dead, he didn't really have any strong figure he could rely on to protect him from the older Lannisters' potential future wrath) would make him a prime target for manipulation. (It's also possible he was angry with the other Lannisters for being married off to a baby---I doubt the "Wet Nurse" nickname filled him with glee.) And when he vanished, Tyrek was way down the line of succession, which means grabbing him in order to successfully seize and hold the Rock would have been a chancy prospect at best. That could indicate that his claim wasn't the primary motivation for his disappearance, or it could indicate that putting Tyrek in control of the Rock wasn't necessarily the end goal. When he vanished, Tyrek was (potentially) in a position to cause chaos within House Lannister on a number of fronts: he could be manipulated into making a play for the Rock once Tywin inevitably died, and he could potentially be used to bring to light any number of dirty Lannister secrets (Robert's murder, the incest, Cersei and Lancel, etc.), depending on what he knew. What's important to note is that It doesn't necessarily matter if Tyrek succeeds in anything here. Logically, you don't grab the guy a dozen spots down in the succession if you truly need him to succeed to the title (as Varys would, were he the culprit), you grab him because you want to ensure that no matter what happens, the transition of power in House Lannister doesn't go smoothly. If Tyrek managed to take the Rock, Littlefinger would benefit. But if Tyrek failed to take the Rock, then Littlefinger could use the chaos of the situation to manipulate the other Lannisters to whatever personal benefit he desired. No matter what happens, Littlefinger stands to benefit. If Tyrek knew some of the Lannisters' secrets, Littlefinger could use his knowledge and/or testimony to throw the Lannister power base into chaos, allowing Littlefinger to sidle in and manipulate that chaos to his benefit. It doesn't necessarily matter if Tyrek's claims are believed. All that matters, in the end, is that Tyrek be used as a tool to ensure that Lannister unity and the Lannister power base are disrupted and chaos is achieved.
  2. [TWoW Spoilers] Barristan

    Oooh, shiny. I wonder if this tidbit foreshadows the path of the plague (greyscale) that Connington might very well have brought to Westeros? In other words, just as the northern districts beyond the river in Meereen are too far away for the plague victims to reach, perhaps the North, beyond the River Trident, will be too far away (from the epicenter of the plague, i.e., Connington) for the greyscale epidemic to reach. ETA: Ninja'd by Ice Turtle, which probably bodes well for this line of speculation. :) Way back in AGOT, Dany pointed out that riding someone else's horse was a pretty huge taboo among the Dothraki---to the point where khals who were willing to share their wives would still refuse to share their horses. Barristan sees this as presumptuous, but necessary for morale---Dany might feel differently, (especially depending on how her encounter with the Dothraki goes). Are five thousand Unsullied all that's left? Or are the rest of the Unsullied being held in reserve for some reason? Back in ASOS, Dany's deal with the Astapori included "The eight thousands, the six centuries... and the ones still in training as well. The ones who have not earned the spikes.” Have over three thousand Unsullied died thus far (which seems odd---you'd think someone would've mentioned that Dany's lost almost a third of her "original" amount of Unsullied), or was a large number of Unsullied left behind in the city? (And if there's a large number of Unsullied in the city, perhaps that will end up relevant during the battle?) Who wants to bet that Victarion ends up blowing the dragon horn (or having it blown) during the battle, Barristan's forces hear it and assume it's the Red Lamb's call to retreat/advance, and Victarion accidentally ends up screwing up Barristan's battle plans? Which makes me imagine a giant flashing neon sign over Barristan's head, saying "Sellsword betrayal ahead! SELLSWORD BETRAYAL AHEAD!" Especially given the Stormcrows' battle cries: "Daario" and "Stormcrows, fly!" Way back in ASOS, Dany said this to the leaders of the Stormcrows: Who wants to bet the Stormcrows are planning on switching over to Yunkai during this battle? The Second Sons are (probably) about to change sides (so Dany's own words would foreshadow the Stormcrows failing to be staunch), and the Stormcrows' two battle cries invoke 1) the captain that was perfectly willing to betray his employer the last time around and 2) the idea of fleeing a battle. It's interesting to get a glimpse of how very "out of the loop" Barristan is when it comes to what's happened in Westeros. Given that Maekar ended up eventually killing Baelor Breakspear, this comparison might not presage positive future relations between Barristan and Victarion.
  3. Patchface Prophesies

    Look at what's going on around him when Patchface gives the whole “Under the sea, smoke rises in bubbles, and flames burn green and blue and black” prophecy: it's when Stannis is getting "Lightbringer" and Melisandre is shouting about him being AA reborn. Perhaps Patchface was trying, in his own Patchface-y way, to "correct" Melisandre? Perhaps this ditty is meant to describe the "real" AA reborn/Lightbringer? The first half might point toward Winterfell. The hot springs there are described as "bubbling", and smoke is grey, one of the colors of House Stark. Not to mention, Patchface gives this prophecy back in ACOK, long before Winterfell was burned, so the "smoke" rising in bubbles could refer to the smoke rising from Winterfell as the bubbles rose from the hot springs. In the second half, the flames burn green, blue, and black---but there's never been any indication that obsidian can be blue. Stannis says he's seen veins of it that are "black, as I recall, but there was some green as well, some red, even purple." Green, black, red, and purple---but Patchface says blue, not purple. So perhaps Patchface wasn't talking about obsidian candles, but rather, three colors associated with AA reborn? Green could represent the greenseers, black could represent the Night's Watch, and blue could represent the Others.
  4. [ADwD Spoilers]The Mummers dragon

    Dragonfish, I think we're going to have to agree to disagree.
  5. [ADwD Spoilers]The Mummers dragon

    Or maybe the "sun's son" (Harrion) is not to be trusted, but "the sun's daughter" (Alys) is to be trusted. Honestly, my point isn't that "the sun's son" must refer to Harrion Karstark. That's just a theory. My point is that Quentyn doesn't really fit as well as people assume. "The speared sun and the mummer's dragon." Poetically, it fits. GRRM presumably wrote out the history of the Martell family's dual sigil for a reason. Presumably he made sure to tell readers that Doran Martell is enthroned beneath a spear, not a sun, for a reason. He made sure to emphasize how the spear AND the sun, together, represent the family at large, and that neither alone is used to describe the Martells. GRRM could have made the Martell family sigil solely a sun. He could have had the female progenitor of the family associated with a spear, and the male progenitor associated with a sun. He could have had other characters call Dornishmen aligned with Doran Martell or House Martell "suns". GRRM did none of those things, and the difference in treatment between the Martell sigil and, say, the Conningtons, or the Greyjoys, or the Lannisters, is I think very striking. The only reference I've ever found associating Doran Martell solely with the sun is the fact that his apartments are in the Tower of the Sun at Sunspear. Arianne wears a crown of suns, but I can't find any indication that Doran does as well. GRRM tells us that the Dornish sun is supposed to be the more deadly of the two weapons, far deadlier than the spear. If we associate a "sun" with the most deadly member(s) of House Martell, how on earth do we come up with Doran? Does anyone really think Doran Martell is the deadliest man in his House? I know people want Quaithe's words to be easily interpretable, but nothing I've read convinces me that Dany's right (when has anyone ever been right about these things??) about Quentyn being the sun's son. We still have several books to go. There is NO requirement that the candidates be apparent at this point in time.
  6. [ADwD Spoilers]The Mummers dragon

    Except that Doran Martell has never been associated solely with a sun. With a spear, yes. With a speared sun, absolutely. But never solely with a sun.
  7. [ADwD Spoilers]The Mummers dragon

    Even if Quaithe means they're coming to her, the only timetable Quaithe gave was that the pale mare would come first. There's no indication that Dany will necessarily meet these "people" in Meereen, or even that they were ever coming to Meereen in the first place. I think we can safely assume that Dany won't spend the rest of the series in Meereen. This is part of my point. If Connington and Aegon are the griffin and the mummer's dragon, then they aren't coming to Dany at all. They were planning on going to Meereen, but those plans got scrapped. Quaithe says that, after the pale mare, the rest will come. She doesn't say they're planning on coming, or thinking about coming, she says they'll come. You can't say that Quentyn must fit into Quaithe's prophecy simply because he came to Dany in Meereen while simultaneously handwaving away two other proposed prophecy-fulfillers who we know will never come to Dany in Meereen at all. Dany assumes the sun's son is Quentyn. Her track record at interpreting prophecies doesn't strike me as authoritative. Honestly, I'm not sure why it's assumed that this prophecy we were just given must be easily interpretable, and have been fulfilled, in the same book in which it was given. None of GRRM's other prophecies have ever been that obvious, even the ones that at first seemed obvious, so why on earth start now? It could technically be Euron, but his personal sigil is a red eye beneath a black crown supported by two crows. It's not a kraken.
  8. [ADwD Spoilers]The Mummers dragon

    Hey, Karstark's just a theory. I was trying earlier to figure out why Harrion Karstark is still alive, plot-wise, and it came from that. And why assume that we have to have met everyone named in the prophecy in this book? We still have two, possibly three books left. I don't think we should assume that the prophecy we're given in Book 5 has to be easily interpretable as of the end of Book 5. Like I said in an earlier post, why assume Quentyn has been part of any prophecy Dany's been given? Quaithe gave her a list of people not to trust. The whole Quentyn issue became a debacle not because Dany unwisely trusted him, but because Dany didn't trust him (thus making him desperate enough to accidentally free the dragons and get himself roasted).
  9. [ADwD Spoilers]The Mummers dragon

    I think if GRRM wanted to say "speared sun" instead of "sun's son", he could have, and that would unambiguously have referred to a male Martell (and would have fit the 'lyricism' of the line that you consider important). I don't think you can say it has to be Quentyn just because he's the only person who met Dany in this book who is partially associated with a sun, especially when GRRM goes to such great lengths to outline how the sun alone does not define House Martell. And if the prophecy said "spear's son," then yes, I think it would be a stronger indicator toward Quentyn than "sun's son" solely because of Doran Martell's throne, though still not as strong an indicator as "speared son". A prophecy about a dog could refer to Sandor Clegane explicitly because he's called The Hound, not just because of the composition of his family's sigil; if a prophecy was given about a single dog, then I don't think it would fit Gregor Clegane (the Mountain) at all, because he's been associated with three dogs (as the head of House Clegane), with a mountain (his nickname), but never with a single dog. As for the moon/falcon sigil of the Arryns, absolutely; if we're given a prophecy about a falcon with no mention of a moon, it's not necessarily about the Arryns at all. I think my general point is, if we think it's the sigil that's important to this prophecy, then in my opinion, these sigils are important. These prophecies are worded very carefully, and it's not like GRRM isn't taking his time crafting these books. I just don't think we can disregard half of a sigil (especially a sigil whose halves are equally important) as unimportant just because it doesn't fit with the prophecy; I think we need to look at that and say "wait a minute, it . . . doesn't fit the prophecy!"
  10. [ADwD Spoilers]The Mummers dragon

    He hasn't, but he's also never referred to Martells as "suns." Usually they're all just referred to as "the fucking Dornishmen", to be fair. I'm pointing to this, for example: Nymeria, the female founder of the House, is associated with the sun. Mors Martell, the male founder of the House, is associated with the spear. More importantly, Prince Doran's throne is surmounted by a spear, not a sun. And GRRM wants to make sure his readers know that. If the prophecy does refer to sigils, calling Quentyn "the sun's son" just rings untrue to me. The "speared sun", yes, but not "the sun's son". I know others disagree with me about the importance of the duality of House Martell's sigil, but I think it's crucial. The Martell's seat is Sunspear. Doran Martell seals his letters with "the sun and spear of Dorne." He swears an oath to Arianne "by sun and spear and Seven." House Martell itself derives from Nymeria and Mors, from a combination of the sun and spear, and GRRM has hit us over the head with the fact that each symbol is equally important to House Martell's general identity. Dany seizes on the sun aspect when she first meets him, but we know that the sun isn't the full embodiment of House Martell's identity and isn't the sigil derived from the male line of the House. To me, there's a superficial correlation to "sun's son", yes, but I don't think it's necessarily as strong as others believe.
  11. [ADwD Spoilers]The Mummers dragon

    That's actually part of my point. Kraken/Dark Flame and lion/griffin (if they are who we assume, which of course isn't a given) were all paired together and traveling together, yet the assumed candidates for sun's son and mummer's dragon never even met. There's a divergence there that I find odd. Though I do think it's worth noting that the "pairing" might ultimately be meaningless. We just don't know yet. I'd disagree with that, just because we first hear about the AA prophecy in the second book. At that point, Dany seemed most 'obviously' to fit the prophecy (with Stannis as the pretender). It's not until the fifth book that we're given more information that leads some to see Jon as a viable candidate. The same thing could easily happen here---the first candidates (and ostensibly the most "logical" candidates) might not be so logical as GRRM gives us more information and has more characters meet up with Dany. What's wrong with the Karstarks? :) GRRM kept Harrion Karstark alive, placed him in a Tarly-controlled position, and made the Karstark sigil solely a sun. Maybe he has a further role to play. Or maybe "sun's son" is someone we haven't even met yet, or someone we haven't considered yet at all. With Melisandre going on and on about how shadows are birthed from light, wouldn't a "shadow baby" be considered a "sun's son"? This prophecy could end up getting fulfilled in totally unexpected ways. And I'd say there's no guarantee that Quentyn has to fit into any of the prophecies Dany was given. Dany was given a list of people not to trust. I'd say Dany had problems with Quentyn, not because she unwisely trusted him, but because she didn't trust him. Had she trusted Quentyn (rather than trying to send him away, leading to him becoming desperate)--had she brought him into her councils, set him and the Dornishmen to work helping train her knights, given him some indication that he wouldn't go home completely empty-handed--- then he probably wouldn't have gone for the dragons and at least some Dornish support (House Yronwood?) would still be on the table if/when she comes to Westeros. (Before someone says it, I'm not saying she should have married him. But if she'd tried to ally herself in some other way rather than simply pushing him away, well, who knows.) And hey, why should we necessarily assume that the lion is Tyrion and the griffin is Connington? (Dany probably will, but that seems to set Dany up to 1) not take Tyrion's political advice, and lord does she need it, and 2) sets up Dany to oppose Connington, and thus, Aegon, which seems to me to be a terrible strategy, a la the Renly/Stannis conflict that only served to strengthen their mutual Lannister enemies.) GRRM makes a point that Jon Connington is hardly the only member of the Connington family left alive. We still have Red Ronnet, his sister, and his bastard son. Any one of those could get weaved back into the story as a problem for Dany. As to the lion, it could refer to Jaime, it could refer to Cersei, it could even refer to Myrcella (as there's a chance that Aegon might marry her to "heal the wounds between Targaryen and Baratheon", which would mean Myrcella would be "usurping" Dany's place as Queen of Westeros). Or remember this little nugget about Yurkhaz zo Yunzak: "Daenerys gone, Yurkhaz dead. In place of one old lion, a pack of jackals." And Yurkhaz's death, according to the Shavepate, is what truly destroyed Dany's peace, so Dany could not trust in the peace Yurkhaz espoused. My point is that, yes, there are candidates that we immediately assume "must" fulfill this prophecy, but GRRM could easily take it in completely unexpected directions (and has before). It seems odd to me that we'd be given a prophecy in which the candidates for fulfilling it are plain as day.
  12. [ADwD Spoilers]The Mummers dragon

    Yes, but so was Victarion, yet "kraken" wasn't paired with either. We still have two books (or 3), and I don't think we can assume that any aspect of Quaithe's prophecy has been fulfilled just yet. Remember how the AA/PTWP prophecy so "clearly" referred to Dany as of ACOK, yet now many readers think it's about Jon? A similar thing could be going on here.Dany thinks the sun's son is Quentyn, and there's evidence to support that, but there's also evidence against it. And for all we know, Dany will meet up with someone in Book 6 or Book 7 (or Book 8) that unambiguously means her harm and who fits "the sun's son" even more accurately than Quentyn. Basically, I just think it's too early to say definitively "this is what the prophecy is about" because GRRM so loves throwing us (and his characters) curveballs.
  13. [ADwD Spoilers]The Mummers dragon

    Who's to say "the sun's son" refers to a Martell at all? GRRM has repeatedly associated the men of House Martell with the spear, not the sun. My personal crackpot theory is that maybe "the sun's son" refers to Harrion Karstark (since the Karstark sigil is a sunburst and according to The Citadel their words are "the sun of winter"). Harrion was last seen as a captive in Maidenpool, and as other threads have pointed out, there's a decent chance the guy who captured Maidenpool, who's son is married to the heir of Maidenpool---Randall Tarly--will go over to Aegon. Tarly would then be in a position to turn over Harrion Karstark to Aegon, and who knows, maybe he and Aegon will hit it off. Presumably there's some reason GRRM has left Harrion Karstark alive and in the south. GRRM keeps describing Connington as wearing wolfskins, and wearing wolfskins is usually shorthand for "will oppose the Starks". If Aegon (under Connington's tutelage) wants to depose the Starks, a Karstark would seem to him like a perfect choice for the new Warden of the North: Harrion's father abandoned (and was murdered by) Robb Stark, and the Karstarks derive from the Starks but are not Starks--raising up Harrion would prevent Aegon from "rewarding" the family that rose up against the Targs, while simultaneously be raising up someone with a close enough tie to the Starks that theoretically the Northern lords will accept it. (Hey, Stannis was willing to try installing a Karstark in Winterfell.) If Harrion Karstark allies with Aegon, and supports him over Dany, that might explain why Quaithe's prophecy pairs the sun's son with the mummer's dragon.
  14. [twow Spoilers] Arianne II, Part 2

    What has Tarly really been reaping, though? His wife, Melessa Florent, was next in line for Brightwater Keep, with its prestige and extremely wealthy lands, but Mace Tyrell made sure it went to his own son Garlan instead. Tarly won the only royalist victory during Robert's Rebellion, yet Mace takes all the credit. Tarly's the one who captured Maidenpool in the first place, so the marriage between Dickon and the heir to Maidenpool really came about through Tarly's efforts, not Mace Tyrell's largesse. Mace is kind of an incompetent fighter, and his heir Willas is a cripple; to Tarly, martial prowess is the only thing that matters. I can see Tarly turning his cloak if he sees Aegon as a route toward getting the power and prestige that Tarly probably feels is his due (especially since his liege lord seems to take him for granted). Here's a wacky thought: maybe not all of these caverns and tunnels are really abandoned? Maybe there are small groups of the Children still living in tunnels south of the Wall.
  15. [twow Spoilers] Arianne II, Part 2

    Very, very interesting that Arianne sees weirwoods in the Rainwood. I thought there weren't supposed to be any weirwoods growing "wild" in the forests of the South? We know a couple of ancient southern Houses still have a weirwood in their godswoods, but I thought that those, the weirwood at the Ravenry of the Citadel, and the Isle of Faces were supposed to be the only weirwoods left south of the Neck? Were we just never told that the Rainwood has surviving weirwood trees? Or is it possible that new weirwood trees have begun sprouting in the south?