Fire Eater

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About Fire Eater

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    Ghost Haunting Valyria
  • Birthday 09/30/1989

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    GRRM's home state
  1. Except while Renly was willing to let Robb call himself "King in the North" like the Martells use "Prince of Dorne" he wasn't willing to let Robb secede, and form an independent kingdom separate from his. Renly wouldn't let the Iron Isles secede, the Tyrells would especially never approve. Your claim that Balon would give up his crown has absolutely no evidence. Balon never offered to put aside his crown. Robb wasn't going to go North given Tywin wasn't threatening the North, and he was in the riverlands. Tywin is known to be a skilled general as Balon himself acknowledged, and Tywin wouldn't be finished quickly, especially since he was holed up at Harrenhal, a strong fortress. There was also the issue of Renly, and Robb hadn't dealt with him yet. Robb wasn't expecting an attack on the North. Balon had plenty of time to send ravens. Except Balon sent his offer before the BoBW, when Frey and Bolton likely sent their ravens. Frey didn't consider defecting until after the BoBW. Bolton wasn't offering to secede either. Do you really think Tywin was really going to let Balon secede with half the kingdom? Or that an extremely proud man who never forgets slights like Tywin would give that to a guy who humiliated him by burning his fleet at anchor in Lannisport? No, Balon clearly didn't conquer the North as none of the Northerners acknowledged his rule, the Northerner lords were still fighting him, and most parts of the North were still unconquered. Capturing two keeps, Torrhen's Square and Deepwood Motte, don't count as conquering the North (Winterfell doesn't count since it was cleared of Ironborn and recaptured). That's like saying when Aegon and Rhaenys had gone into Dorne and declared victory that they had conquered Dorne, but that clearly wasn't the case. The second comment is a complete exaggeration. Skagos still owes fealty to Winterfell, and acknowledges their rule as exemplified by their last attempt at independence was crushed. That still completely ignores what Asha pointed out that the Ironborn don't have the discipline to withstand a cavalry charge.
  2. Yeah, I think Egg may have intended to sacrifice his newborn great-grandson to hatch the dragon eggs. Dunk would obviously have never approved, and even though he was now LC of the KG, something that he could only dream of as a squire or when he was a lowly hedge knight, deep inside he was still Dunk of Flea Bottom who chose his honor and ethics over his KG vows. I don't see him standing by, and letting Egg sacrifice a newborn. He could have ignited the wildfire to help Rhaella and Aerys get away along with possibly Jaehaerys.
  3. Everything about Balon's plan was stupid. He wanted to gain independence and conquer the entire North. First problem, none of the contenders for the Iron Throne would allow the Iron Isles independence, especially if they took the North, or essentially half the kingdom. Second, he makes the offer of alliance to Tywin after he invades the North not before. Tywin doesn't take his offer since as he says "Greyjoy demands half the kingdom as the price of alliance, but what will he do to earn it? Fight the Starks? He is doing that already. Why should we pay for what he has given us for free?" He could have offered Tywin before he invaded, Tywin would have given a lot for that. Balon demonstrates himself to be a moron. Third, there is the problem of conquering the North itself. It is a large landmass, and the Ironborn would be spread thin trying to conquer it. The Northmen also know the area better than they could, and that makes it easier for them to launch surprise attacks as well as picking sites for battle. The Battle of Torrhen's Square shows that while their method of fighting is good for ship to ship combat, their lack of discipline makes them unable to withstand a cavalry charge ensuring that they lose every land battle when the element of surprise has been lost. Also, every army crawls on its stomach. The further into the interior they go away from the Sunset Sea, the more they stretch their supply lines, making it a logistical nightmare. The Northmen would attack the those supply lines, and likely practice scorched earth to leave nothing for the Ironborn to forage off of. Also, take into account Northern winters, and many Ironborn would perish just from starvation and freezing.
  4. We've all seen this quote before, and paid attention to the black dragon head turning red pointing to Aegon as Blackfyre appearing as a Targaryen. However, the last part that is bolded could point out that after the Blackfyre threat has been forgotten that the last Blackfyre pretender, Aegon, has been living on a riverboat on the Rhoyne his whole life.
  5. Tommen dies. Simple as that.
  6. Anyone who knows people can tell that she clearly likes him. Of course, Jon currently has the same problem as another Lord Commander, Jaime, has with his tough, blue-eyed blonde that he sent off to find someone, Brienne. Jaime deep inside likes Brienne, but he doesn't know it or admit it. He hits Ser Ronnet Connington for insulting Brienne, and he has what Sam would call a "rising" when in a tub with her. He has trouble coming to terms with it partly because of his loyalty to Cersei, and another is that Brienne doesn't fit his image of an ideal partner. Jon, OTOH, admits that Val is an attractive girl, and "she would make a worthy wife for any lord." She manages to make him smile even though "he knew he should not smile, but he did." He has trouble coming to terms with his feelings for Val mainly because of his loyalty to his vows.
  7. I agree with this theory completely. Littlefinger likely knew how to manipulate Joffrey, and GRRM said he had a certain influence over the boy. I am also reminded of this quote from ADwD Cersei II: Thinking about how Ned's execution wasn't supposed to happen, and Joffrey was supposed to spare him. One detail she mentions that she misses is that Littlefinger offered to marry Sansa, but Cersei rejected his request. He likely was expecting Sansa as his reward for helping Cersei with her coup, but then in another of her many political miscalculations, rejected it, pissing him off. Littlefinger's history shows that he has never taken rejection well, especially if it involves Stark women, and he has a vindictive streak. He likely manipulated Joffrey into executing Ned to screw Cersei, and get back at her for rejecting his offer.
  8. I think he will take CR, and briefly be Lord of CR and Warden of the West. However, I say briefly because I don't think that he will survive the series.
  9. My mistake. Rhaenys was Aegon's co-Queen. One would have a to be an idiot not to see her immediate value. She could be used as leverage to bring Aegon to the negotiating table. Meria would be at Sunspear since I doubt she would be in the field leading given she is blind and old. She would need to stay at Sunspear, at one spot to serve as a command center. The Ullers would likely go to their overlords regarding what to do with her first, as Greenbeard said "a peasant may skin a common squirrel for his pot, but if he finds a gold squirrel in his tree he takes it to his lord, or he will wish he did." Such a communication system would still be horse-based, and on horseback it would still take a message at the very least a week to reach Sunspear, and another to send a message back. Of course, I know the timeline. Aegon dearly loved his wife, and you think a letter containing her last words wouldn't mean anything to him? He was hardened to keep the war going largely as a result of her death, so she still had some effect on him. Why couldn't Aegon just demand his wife back? He undoubtedly would have if he knew she was still alive. He had the leverage as Deria was in his power, he had the dragons and the larger army. A threat like that wouldn't have swayed him, but more likely enraged him. It also undoes the gesture of goodwill by returning Meraxes's skull. There is also another issue your blackmail theory overlooks: if Nymor sent an offer of peace with a threat like that, why would he send his daughter and heir, since he would be putting her life at risk? She would be at risk of being a target for Aegon's wrath. He'd also have essentially just handed Aegon a valuable hostage he could use to counter Nymor's threats against Rhaenys. His hand was around the letter. He was clearly giving an emotional response as it was a letter from his late wife that he missed, and it also depends what was in it that she wrote. It does make sense. He would have felt a complex mixture of grief, love, sadness, and maybe some anger and relief. We don't get much about Aegon given the man is described as an enigmatic, and so we don't really know for certainty much of his heart or how he would respond. Yes, she could have. I think Deria handed Aegon the letter simply because it was privately addressed to him. Why would Aegon burn a letter to Rhaenys? Why did Martha Washington burn all her letters to her husband, George, after he died? Aegon usually kept to himself, and was a pretty private person. Aegon would seem determined to refuse to offer given he lost his wife, his Hand lost his hand and he lost a number of bannermen. Again, the blackmail theory falls apart with the presence of Deria amongst other things. But what about Nymor's people? You think he didn't take the suffering from Aegon's wroth into account? Also, you're forgetting Aegon still had another son besides Aenys: Maegor (who was around 2). Killing Aenys wouldn't extinguish the Targaryen line. Or as the letters they sent to the Dornish lords suggest, they were avoiding Sunspear to drive a wedge between them and their bannermen? It also would still have left the rest of Dorne at risk. Unless we are given details explicitly saying so, I don't think that is a confirmation. I still doubt blackmail would have moved Aegon. You're saying Deria had no idea what was in the letter she handed to Aegon? That Nymor never confided in her his plans? That she wasn't in on her father's plans doesn't make sense. Of course, she would have been in on it. I doubt Aegon would have wanted to celebrate with her with his son that was threatened. Killing Aegon's son would have risked a very bloody retribution.
  10. Next time please read more carefully, I said "she asked for a parchment and quill" not that she had one on her whilst she was flying. Except, it goes with GRRM's habits of creating and forming readers' expectations just to surprise them. Torturing her is exactly what the reader easily accepts and expects them to do. Also, Meria Martell wasn't at Hellholt, but Sunspear (which was untouched). Meria was smart, and she would know the huge potential value of Rhaenys as a hostage. I clearly said she was badly injured in the OP. Again, read carefully. The Martells didn't publicly reveal it, because she died shortly after her fall. There is also the not unlikely scenario that one of the towers destroyed at Hellholt was the maester's tower, and all the ravens inside were killed. Hellholt wouldn't be able to send a raven to anywhere, even Sunspear. Any message without a raven would have taken weeks to reach Sunspear. Who knows how who would respond to such a letter? Aegon's response would have been appropriate since it involved his late sister-wife. Rhaenys's remains were being sent to Dragonstone, her childhood home. I explained that was at her request. The problem with you argument in the paragraph quoted above is that Aegon is clearly described as "determined to refuse" the offer of peace. He was for continuing the war, and Rhaenys's death would have hardened his resolve. Something in the letter changed his mind. It has nothing to do with force, but with convincing and moving him to end the war. Except the whole point behind hiring assassins is to kill someone off without getting caught, or essentially, the client who hires the assassins doesn't get implicated. So that scenario makes it clear the Nymor would hire FM to kill Aenys, and if Aenys died, Aegon would clearly know who was responsible. That itself brings the risk of an even more brutal campaign with more dragons, and possibly even Sunspear being burned this time. If the Martells had dragonkilling weapons the whole time, why didn't they first use them when the Targaryens starting using their dragons? Also, Aegon doesn't sound like the kind of man who could be cowed by such threats. Finally, why would Aegon bring his own son to celebrate a peace deal with the same people who got the deal by threatening to kill that exact same son? Yes, we're not being given any info regarding the letter, and the chances are it will be revealed later on in the series I think.
  11. It is gesture of goodwill. Aegon already burned Dorne for Rhaenys's death, why would he need to burn it a second time? You missed that an enemy returning the remains of someone on the other side is considered a sign of respect, hence why Jon Arryn went with Elia's bones to Dorne. As I clearly explained, that theory has so many problems. Why didn't the Dornish use Rhaenys when they first knew they had her? Saying he went to tell Visenya is a bad theory given it was stated clearly Visenya was at King's Landing given she was overlooking the Red Keep's construction, and she (along with Rhaenys before she died) helped run the seven kingdoms. If Aegon was pissed, why the hell did he agree to a peace immediately? That makes no sense. Does Aegon look like the kind of guy who would accept a peace based on a threat? He celebrated the tenth anniversary of the peace with the Martells, which would be really strange if what you described is the case. Waiting for a pause in active warfare? I don't recall there being a pause in the war. It makes sense to get delegation sent soon rather than let Dorne suffer until there is a pause. Aegon isn't known to be the kind of guy to burn a peace delegation.
  12. How can you change Aegon's mind with water magic?
  13. And he wouldn't have brought Aenys, Rhaenys's son, to Dorne to celebrate the peace deal. Hell, he wouldn't even want to celebrate the peace.
  14. Your welcome. Quentyn is dead, and confirmed dead by Barristan. Arch burned his hands trying to put out the fire on Quentyn, and I don't see him doing that for anyone else except Drink. His death pretty sinks the alliance with Dorne with Dany.
  15. Aegon the Conqueror was described as "determined to refuse" the offer of peace by the Dornish. By that point, many of his lords had died in the First Dornish War or had been tortured and/or maimed as was the case of his Hand and closest friend, Orys Baratheon. And not to mention his greatest loss: Rhaenys, the sister-wife and mother to his heir, the only woman he had ever truly loved. His heart would have been hardened just by that personal loss, and he would have had a desire for vengeance as demonstrated by him and Visenya burning every castle in Dorne (except Sunspear) after Rhaenys's death. However, his opinion changed after being given a letter. Whatever was written in it, clearly had an emotional impact on him given his hand was bleeding from being clenched so hard. He then burned the letter, not wanting anyone to see what was written. He then left for Dragonstone immediately, and returned to agree to the peace. In "Sons of the Dragon," it is mentioned that Aegon "flew to Sunspear on Balerion on the tenth anniversary of the peace accords to celebrate a 'feast of friendship' with Deria Martell, the reigning Princess of Dorne. Prince Aenys accompanied him on Quicksilver." Aegon and Deria appeared to be on good enough to terms to celebrate the peace between them. The question on every reader's mind is "What was in that letter?" One theory is that it was ensorceled, which I think we can easily dismiss. I don't know where Nymor would get the spells. The next theory is that Nymor threatened to use all of Dorne's wealth to hire a FM to kill Aenys, Aegon's son and heir. The problem with that theory is that Aegon had six (seven if you separate the riverlands and the Iron Isles) more kingdoms than his to outbid him, and the point behind hiring the FM is so the customer doesn't get caught. It doesn't take a genius to say that if Aegon was willing to burn every Dornish castle to avenge Rhaenys, then having his son by that same woman murdered would likely trigger similar reprisals. An offer of peace that comes with a threat would have enraged Aegon, and it also destroys the point of goodwill that was demonstrated by bringing Meraxes' skull. The third explanation, and I think the one most accepted, is that they had Rhaenys, who had been tortured and mutilated after her capture at Hellholt, and Nymor promised to put her out of her misery as an incentive to the peace. The first issue with that theory is that if the Dornish had Rhaenys this whole time all those years, why didn't they use her before when they first had her? As Aegon's favorite sister-wife, she would have been a valuable hostage to use to bring Aegon to the negotiating table. Secondly, like with the second theory, Aegon would undoubtedly have been enraged at the thought of his sister-wife having been alive all this time being tortured and mutilated, and being told that killing her was part of the peace. He would have demanded her back in whatever condition, and counter-threatened something along the lines of turning Sunspear into ash. Edit: Also, why would Nymor send his daughter and heir to deliver such a threat? As well as risking making her a target for Aegon's wrath, he would have essentially handed him a valuable hostage on a silver platter that Aegon could use to counter him on Rhaenys. I think there is a fourth explanation that hasn't been mentioned: that letter wasn't written by Nymor, but by Rhaenys. After Meraxes fell to the ground, and she was badly injured, contrary to what one would usually think, the Dornish gave her a bed and had a maester (provided he wasn't killed in the assault) take care of her. They knew her value as a hostage, and when she got better they would tell Aegon they had her. However, as time passed, her condition grew worse and her health continued to deteriorate. Close to death she had one request, to be given some parchment and quill to write a final letter to Aegon. It is mentioned her bones were never returned, but neither were Rhaegar's, because the Targaryens cremate their dead. She was likely cremated upon her death per her request, and her ashes returned to her childhood home of Dragonstone. I think Aegon left for Dragonstone to meet up with the ship carrying her urn. Aegon would of course been emotional recognizing his wife's words in her last letter to him. He would have burned it simply because the letter was a private, personal matter. The fifth explanation is that it was simply Nymor stating that her ashes were being returned to Dragonstone. In either scenario, Aegon would have been moved enough by by the Dornish's actions to accept the peace. The awful things the Dornish did during the war only served to escalate the situation, and make things worse, but the one noble, honorable act ends up being what ends the war.