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About Tagganaro

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    I know SUN TZU hrurrr jizz everywhre.

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  1. I don't know where you get the impression the wildlings with Tormund don't want to fight- I would guess most of them are the same warriors who were just extremely excited to follow Jon to Winterfell to go risk their lives to rescue Mance/kill Ramsay. They do want to fight, and badly. They were not present for Mance's burning and had no say there. Jon is not "massively unpopular" among the NW brothers either. He has the support of most, if not all, the rangers throughout ADWD. I should have clarified, yes I mean Castle Black and not the Watch in general. Given that we have never remotely been given any POV insight into Eastwatch and the Shadow Tower, I usually equate the NW with Castle Black or the rangings north of the Wall with brothers from other towers. I would imagine a good majority of the wildlings would not only be willing, but eager to avenge Jon. There was a compelling thread a while back about how Jon had essentially become a de facto king of the wildlings, and even if you don't buy that, you can buy that Tormund will be eager to avenge Jon if he can and that Tormund probably has the support of many, if not all of the wildlings there. Beyond "avenging Jon" though, the wildlings will still be motivated to act through hate of Marsh and the NW, not to mention the attack of Wun Wun (although that's probably pretty minor in the grand scheme of things). Jon just made a grand speech playing on the wildling soldiers passion to go rescue Mance, from his POV eliciting a load roar of approval and support. Now you have chief wildling racist hater Bowen Marsh sneak attacking the "general" who was just gonna lead a rescue party to go save your beloved Mance...can't imagine there won't be some very pissed off wildlings out for blood. I realize Selyse's retinue is small, but I'd still imagine the death of Ser Patrek won't go over too well. And yes, Bowen Marsh is also the chief Lannister supporter on the NW but I'm not sure Selyse would know that. In any case, she's gonna be a lot more concerned about Stannis's apparent death and her own safety so yes, I can agree on that. yes, agree on Stannis/Selyse, although 2 major things are still the death of Ser Patrek and Shireen/Val. There's gotta be some payoff to Val freaking the hell out about Shireen, don't know if she will take this opportunity and the wildlings will take this opportunity to try and kill the "unclean" child. yeah, I mean this is what I'm saying. There's no way Tormund and the wildlings don't immediately look to attack/kill Bowen and the conspirators, and I don't see a way where that doesn't lead to all-out conflict. Jon being dead/out of commission for a while is just something that makes sense to me. GRRM doesn't necessarily seem like the kind of writer who would go for a cheap cliffhanger that's resolved immediately...I would think he wants to play this out.
  2. I think if you're really struggling with the divergences and don't want to re-read all the books, you could just re-read Books 4 and 5. That's really where all the divergences start. If you're not motivated enough to do that, then I'd recommend just kind of trying to forget or at least compartmentalize everything that happened on the show the past 2 seasons as 95% of it is beyond the books and probably not based specifically on any future events in the books.
  3. I'm really kind of struggling to even see how the NW continues to exist after the events of ADWD. The NW is already severely depleted of man power, and with the killing of Jon there seems to be an almost obvious outcome of civil war among the different factions of the Wall. I mean, the wildlings outnumber the NW but there is some support for the conspirators Marsh and Whittlestick among the builders and stewards. I suppose it's possible that the wildlings just quickly subdue Marsh and Whittlestick but that doesn't account for the fact that the loyal Queen's Man Ser Patrek is now dead, killed by the wildling giant Wun-Wun. So you have at least 3 different aggrieved factions looking for each other's blood in a highly combustible scenario. I see a lot of blood being spilled and with the NW already outnumbered and undermanned, I sort of struggle with the idea of how the NW even survives this. Assuming the NW does somehow survive, I'm thinking Jon could possibly be out of commission for a while (maybe even the entirety of TWOW), if so I'd imagine by the time Jon wakes up the NW will be dead anyway. But yeah, I don't really see Jon going "Well I died so now I'm free from my oath" but I could possibly see an angry and pissed off Jon basically saying "screw my oath and screw the NW."
  4. There's nothing that supports the idea that only rangers are recruiters...indeed we can only make the opposite assumption based on the fact that Dareon is made a recruiter. I don't recall off the top of my head but I can't imagine he was made a ranger, I would guess a steward. So redo the odds to 1/500 or however many NW men there are, there's very little that supports the idea that Mance was there other than there being mention of black brother and singing...that's a really tenuous connection to Mance was there.
  5. I'm given to understand that there are very few "recruiters" or "wandering crows." Like I would guess definitely less than 10 if not less than 5. The NW simply can't spare that kind of man power and like we know for example why Yoren is a recruiter...I think he hurt his shoulder or something and struggled to really fight and wasn't good at anything else. I can't see the NW wasting Mance's talents on recruiting. Qhorin Halfhand, who is a major badass himself calls Mance the best of the rangers. We see this in action- he bested most of the wildling would-be kings in combat and we get to see him beat the living shit out of Jon, no slouch himself as a fighter. I would think that besides for the few trips south of the Wall, the NW would like to keep him at hand at all times for rangings north of the Wall. He's no Dareon you know.
  6. Precisely. There is no reason to believe any of these theories about Mance, yet we as readers constantly come up with them. It speaks to how interesting of a character Mance is that readers can't just take his backstory at face value. I'm not saying any of these theories are impossible or even that they're irrational, it's just interesting to see all the speculation on where Mance has been and what he has been doing, especially if it just turns out that we already know everything we need to know about his past (which I think is likely). He really was born a wildling, grew up at the Wall, and then tired of all the restrictions on his life and deserted. He really did sneak south of the Wall just a couple times, and Winterfell is the most south he has ever been. There doesn't need to be some crazy backstory behind his love of Bael the Bard and the Dornishman's Wife, which at their heart are about thumbing one's nose at authority and living and dying freely, ethos that Mance lives by.
  7. It's a good question...I don't know if we are ever given an age or age range for him. I'd imagine he's a similar age to Qhorin Halfhand, which I've always thought of as like anywhere in the range from mid 30s to mid 40s (probably around 40)? Old enough to have experienced a lot of things, but still young enough to kick Jon's ass with a sword. This precisely. In it's most general interpretation, I would view the Dornishman's wife as representing freedom of choice, to live and die as Mance saw fit. It's definitely possible, but I'd still say unlikely. Mance is definitely written to be a bit mysterious, hence you get all these crackpottery kind of theories like Mance = Rheagar etc. But yeah, I'd still think Mance was relatively confined to the North for his life, between beyond the Wall, the Wall, and Winterfell that is still a lot of life and culture and experience for a person.
  8. Dornish wine probably not difficult at all. There is a ton of trade going on between wildings, NW brothers, and trading ships from the free cities. Can't imagine it would be too difficult for a Lyseni or Braavosi ship to get a hold of Dornish wine. Dornishman's wife? That may be more difficult to come by in the North , but I also don't take that literally but rather symbolically.
  9. I think both Mother Mole and Melisandre are partially correct. Arya reports to the Kindly Man that 2 Lyseni slaving ships went to Hardhome and took hundreds of women and children away. She also reported that the plan was for more ships to return and take ALL of the women and children since the price of slaves was rising. However, I don't think the remaining ships will make it. Or perhaps they will and only take the women and children. Either way, while the ships arrived to "save" a portion of the wildlings at Hardhome, the majority of wildlings there will probably perish per Mel's vision at the hands of the Others. So both visions are sort of correct in that way.
  10. I definitely think GRRM intended for there to be serious parallels between Dany and Jon's issues in ADWD. They are both "learning to lead" to quote the old re-read threads on here. They are both stuck dealing with the consequences of their decisions to "stay put" in ASOS rather than move on (Dany could have just left Mereen behind, that's what Illyrio and everyone expected her to do, Jon could have left the NW and married Val which he spends most of ADWD regretting not doing). They are both in the moral right of things (Dany ending slavery, Jon trying to save an entire group of people from going extinct) but encounter entrenched competition that they really can't fight or combat. I don't know...I think as has been mentioned Dany is trying to end slavery in a culture founded on that very institution. Sort of like the Civil War, I don't think there's any way but a "massive and bloody war" to accomplish that. The slaver culture is too entrenched, there are too many wealthy families that need the slavery business to stay wealthy. In short, there is no economically feasible way to eliminate slavery since Slaver's Bay, and indeed I'd say pretty much the entirety of Essos, are reliant on that slaver economy. That's why you get all these other slaver cities, and even merchants like Illyrio Mopatis taking a concern in what Dany is doing. She's disrupting the world economy. I think Dany is about to leave, but what she learned the hard way in ADWD is that she cannot compromise. A Dragon plants no trees, she shouldn't have left Yunkai alone once she defeated the armies in the field and she never should have agreed to marry Hizdahr and re-open the fighting pits. She needed to be more brutal in dealing with the Harpies as the Shavepate suggested. She will probably get that opportunity once she returns to Mereen with a Dothraki horde behind her.
  11. The will is written before any chance of Jeyne becoming pregnant. Robb mentions this concern- that he and Jeyne have been trying to make him an heir but that he's not certain it's working, and that he needs an heir should he die in his next battle. I think the Will may even be contingent on Robb having no child in order to be effective. Catelyn mentions the concerns re: Theon and Jon to Robb. Robb angrily dismisses them, and even Grey Wind gets angry when Catelyn suggests that Jon and Theon could be similar threats/betrayals. "That is as cruel as it is unfair. Jon is no Theon." That's what Robb replies to Catelyn. As Robb also considers, there is precedent for King's legitimizing bastards. Stannis is willing to do the same exact thing for Jon based on precent. So Number 1, the NW would probably recognize his kingship and there is no breaking of vows- Robb is even willing to send 100 men to the NW to replace Jon. Number 2, Robb's will/decree makes him legit. 3, Robb's will is contingent on him dying without children- he explicitly mentions this.
  12. I appreciate the effort, but this whole theory basically boils down to "both Nestoris and LF are Braavosi, so they are working together." There is no evidence otherwise supporting this. Littlefinger has placed the crown in debt, 6 million dragons to be precise. He’s bribed people in king’s landing, wasted money on Robert’s excesses, and has left the crown insolvent. In fact, this is BEFORE the War of the Five Kings really came into fruition. Littlefinger knows the Iron Bank will try to collect debts. Baelish’s schemes allow the Iron Bank to gain an immense amount of leverage over the Iron Throne. Because of this, it seems just as likely that the Iron Bank would help Littlefinger for their goals. They’re both master Braavosi financiers, and it is pretty much shown Iron Bank knows who Baelish is. We furthermore see evidence that the Iron Bank is subduing various houses throughout the story. We know from AFFC that the Iron Bank was calling in in its loans all over Westeros. Now, many people seem to accept the Iron Bank as loyal to Stannis, as Cersei refuses to pay the Braavosi back their loans. However, as I will point out, neither the Iron Throne or Stannis have the capabilities to pay back their debts. I suspect Baelish and Nestoris are working together, as their cooperation creates a win-win situation. The Iron Bank gains control over kingdoms through debt, and Littlefinger can be installed as the Iron Bank’s accomplice in Westeros as a result. I'd first say that the Iron Bank is first and foremost concerned with making a profit, not gaining some kind of illusory "control" over the North. Just because they own debt, doesn't mean the Iron Bank controls things. I'd think as a bank they'd be more concerned with getting their debts paid off than anything else. I don't really see a scheme here by LF to help the Iron Bank by overexerting the Crown's finances and creating a boatload of debt that can never be paid off...I don't see why the Iron Bank would like LF for doing so. I don't think people accept the Iron Bank as loyal to Stannis, they accept the idea that the Iron Bank is interested in seeing its debt paid off, which isn't gonna happen with Cersei, and now they want to make an example of her and see if Stannis would be a better partner to them than Cersei. There is no "win-win" by the Iron Bank owning debt that will never be paid off. From what I understand, it's not entirely that the Iron Throne can't pay off the debt to the Iron Bank, it's that they won't. Cersei has now openly repudiated the debt and is saying she won't pay it off. The Iron Bank doesn't really care if Stannis is bad at finances, they care that they can make an example of Cersei and put Stannis on the throne on the condition that he promises to eventually pay off the debt. This may all be true, but the Iron Bank is willing to take a risk on Stannis if it means teaching Cersei a lesson and finding a better partner on the Iron Throne. They want to recover their debt, they cannot afford to have Cersei sitting on the throne shirking off the debt.
  13. Robb would be the best, mainly by default. I don't think he'd be very good due to his penchant for bad decisions, but out of all the candidates he's the only one who could maybe have the right balance of being feared and loved. I tend to think Noye's description of Renly and Stannis is spot-on, Renly is a pale imitation of Robert who looks the same but doesn't have near the qualities that made Robert a leader. Stannis is forever in Robert's shadow and could never find a way to be loved. And Balon and Joffrey are obviously psycopaths so they wouldn't make good kings.
  14. Yeah, I tend to lean towards her becoming more committed to non-compromise, particularly through violence and "destroying opposition", with the talk in her final chapter being that a dragon plants no trees. When you pair that with Khal Jhaqo finding Dany and Drogon devouring a horse I tend to think Dany is about to claim revenge on Jhaqo as promised back in AGOT and take over the Dothraki. That doesn't seem like something that will have a non-violent ending . As far as good coming from Dany's conquest of Westeros, it depends who is ruling and what they are doing. As of the end of ADWD, you have Cersei displaying some very disturbing and violent characteristics probably poised to take over ruling King's Landing upon Kevan Lannister's death. Certainly if Cersei is a Mad King 2.0, maybe some good can come of Dany's conquest.
  15. I don't think of Jon as physically attractive at all, I don't think he is written to be that way. However, take a young boy/man of average attractiveness, add Stark blood, give him this awesome direwolf companion, add a facial scar that shows toughness in battle, put him around a bunch of ugly sullen men in the Night's Watch, and then finally give him a position of extreme power and suddenly a man of average attractiveness becomes much more attractive to the women around him. I do think what we see from both Val and Alys is flirting, although as has been discussed it's tough to know whether the flirting is genuine or whether both of them are desperate, like Melisandre, to get in on the Lord Commander's good side and manipulate his power to their own ends. I'd say there's definitely a little bit of both going on. I think Alys sees Jon as her savior and maybe also sees him as a really eligible bachelor that marrying could improve her situation dramatically...she was bound to develop attraction under the circumstances she arrived at the Wall under and how Jon saved her from them. She's now marrying this unfamiliar Thenn guy and probably longs for the familiarity of Jon. With Val I do think there is legitimate attraction both ways. While we don't know that Val conforms to wildling customs in a similar way to Ygritte (IIRC Val is described as having a number of boy toys/"pets" when Jon first meets her in Mance's tent which is pretty much the polar opposite of Ygritte's more patriarchal-based experience of being "stolen"), I do think that Jon probably "stole" Val in a similar way to how Ygritte views it. Except cut out the murder of Ygritte's soldier companion and substitute an act of compassion by Jon sticking with Dalla and "protecting" her and Val while Val delivered the baby. Then you factor in Val's imprisonment, probably only spending time around Stannis and other assorted ugly older men who only view Val as a princess in a tower, and contrast that with Jon freeing her from her imprisonment to go find Tormund, saving her wildlings in the process, and actually engaging with Val through banter and treating her like a fellow human being rather than a piece of property, and I would say Val is probably attracted to Jon. We do also see Shireen blush when Jon talks to her...does that indicate attractiveness on Jon's part or just show how cloistered and mistreated Shireen usually is? I'd say probably the latter. Shireen has rarely, if ever, even been around young men in positions of power who are single. It's probably even rarer for that young man to treat Shireen respectfully and not be immediatedly disgusted by her facial disfiguration, as we see Stannis/Selyse constantly mistreat her for it. Jon showing her the slightest bit of chivalry/courtesy would probably be cause for her to blush.