Lord Varys

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About Lord Varys

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    Most Devious 'Man' In The Seven Kingdoms
  • Birthday 11/25/1982

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    Definitely somewhere in King's Landing

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  1. Why did Criston Cole support Aegon II?

    That sounds way too petty for my taste. There are no such people mentioned nor does it seem likely that they dream of such things. Connington explicitly wants to end the line of the Usurper. If he wanted to slaughter Baratheon loyalists he could (and should) have begun in the Stormlands. But he doesn't do anything of that sort. And the Sand Snakes never were in the capital before. They have no reason to dislike people there. Even if there were such people - and technically they should exist - they are not the enemy. Not even the Tyrells are if they bent the knee in time. He might and actually seems to be making it easy. Those Freys die like flies since the Red Wedding. You are thinking in terms of a direct attack and a pitched battle. I think those sneak attacks will continue on a larger scale with the Freys being powerless to do something about it and (at first) still not understanding what's going on. But even if there were open battles - the forces of the Riverlords combined (minus the Freys) should still outnumber whatever the Lannisters have left in the Riverlands. If the Riverlords choose the grounds of the battles they should all be butchered. It does not matter whether the hostages live or die. Once they are either freed or dead the Riverlords can move against the Freys. And they will. We have to wait and see what happens to Prester's forces but thinking a little bit about Jaime's impeding meeting with Catelyn one actually wonders whether it will be the outlaws or rather a professional force under of some Riverlords/Tully men under the command of Brynden Tully who will ambush the Westermen escorting Edmure and Jeyne. Edmure knew that Jaime intended to send him to Casterly Rock as a prisoner so he might have actually told his uncle about that and they might have made a plan to how to free Edmure on the road. It could still get ugly, of course, but even if it does it might not really affect the core of the rebels if the Brotherhood isn't even involved in that thing. I'd agree on the outcome more or less. The people there are in no shape to fight another war. Yet they seem to have the strength left to kill the remaining Lannisters and Freys. After that they won't be willing to continue the war. That was never the point. The point was that Aegon would be well-advised to support the Riverlords in their revenge effort. He could even send some men of his own to help them hunt down some Freys. Although there might be still some regions in the Riverlands which were largely untouched by war.
  2. Why did Criston Cole support Aegon II?

    And you are basing that one what exactly? We don't even know yet whether Aegon will have to take the city by force. If the Golden Company defeats the Tyrell host marching against them the Kingslanders and sparrows might very well welcome Aegon with open gates. Depending how quickly things will unravel this might even happen before the Dornish armies have formally joined Aegon. And even if not, the only people who have reason to fear should be Cersei and her children. Aside from them no one important connected to the old Baratheon is even still alive or even there. Or do you think they will butcher some rich merchants etc. once they enter the city? If Prince Aegon decides to sack the city the Conqueror has founded he should better kill himself right then and there because he will be finished after such an act. There might be some changes in the way the city is organized. But then - there are hints that there might be a strong pro-Targaryen basis in the city still, waking to be activated or manipulated into action. Even that depends on the role Jaime is going to play during the War for the Dawn should he live long enough to see. Dany is not Stannis. Were Jaime to save her life during the fight against the Others she most likely would pardon him. The idea that the people who have wanted to kill others for a long time will get the chance to do it isn't very likely in this series. Sansa and Robb never had a chance to get back at Joffrey, Viserys had no chance to kill either Robert or Jaime, Doran and Oberyn Martell failed to kill Tywin etc.
  3. Why did Criston Cole support Aegon II?

    Still, they could be seen as 'traitors' and 'enemies' who deserved to die, too. Robert Baratheon could have very easily decided that he would never worked with any person who ever sat on the council of Aerys II. And he actually should have done that. What House Toyne? Do you actually think House Toyne survived the attempt on the life of the king which also led to the death of the Dragonknight? The existence of Simon Toyne and Myles Toyne later on does not mean there still was a noble house Toyne at this point. Just as the existence of Masha Heddle and her kin doesn't mean there is still noble Heddles out there. The idea that Daeron II would look favorable on the kin of the people who murdered his uncle and tried to murder his father makes little sense. Not to mention that Aegon IV sort of was in the right executing Terrence Toyne. He was breaking his Kingsguard vows, after all. He shouldn't have been so cruel but an execution wasn't extraordinary there. That was an immediate punishment in completely different context. Jaime's crime is old and people are actually accustomed to him not being punished. Besides, Aerys I - who is not considered to be the strongest of kings - did pardon his uncle Aegor in the wake of the Third Blackfyre Rebellion against the will of both Bloodraven and Aerion. There are some of those, yes, men like Mathis Rowan. But men like those won't chastise the king if he decides to pardon Jaime. Even less so if the deal with him helps to save the lives of their men and prevent another battle/war. The idea that the majority of the lords likely to proclaim for Aegon wants a new devastating civil war is about zero if you ask me. In addition, there are no people out there who have personal reasons to hate Jaime. So what? Robert was the king. He should not allow a Kingsguard to live after he has successfully murdered a king. That is just stupid. But Robert has set a precedent there. And if Jaime makes amends for his treason and actually helps to crown the new Targaryen king then this is a deal that could be made. Dany would never do it, of course, but there are no Usurper's Dogs running around in Aegon's mind and conversation as far as we know. He might have a rather pragmatic approach to things. That is another point entirely. Jaime just slew Aerys II. He did not put another king on the throne. Other people did that. And Jaime had a very good reason to do what he did. Imagine what's going to happen if Varys tells Aegon about the wildfire plot? Then Aegon will understand that Jaime actually saved him by murdering his royal grandfather and his alchemist pets because had he not done some little Aegon would have been engulfed by the flames, too.
  4. Loyalists and Aegon´s disinheritance

    Aside from Roxton they were all cowards because did not dare to challenge them openly like real men would. And Roxton was a fool because Vermithor and Hugh could really have helped them during Second Tumbleton. Killing him while they were attacked was just stupidity. We are not talking about a discussion here, either. If Daeron I had had a battle coronation then he would have been king, regardless what Alicent or the cripple thought. And if Peake effectively took the reins of the government as he later did King Daeron might never interacted with his mother or elder brother ever again. I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about Aegon II killing a sibling who displeased him. Once you open that door and kill a 'traitor' you can easily repeat that and both Aemond and Daeron so much as daring to look at his crown would have been treason. Why not kill such traitors? Trystane Truefyre was killed, too, after all. That was earlier in his reign and Hightower never actually betrayed his king. He just sucked at his job. Larys Strong had no idea that Aegon yet lived. Aemond knowing that his brother got out of the city doesn't mean that he survived nor is this a reason to wait and see whether the dude ever shows his face again. Not to mention that we could have had a battle coronation, too, based on the news/rumors that Aegon II was dead. And strictly speaking, Larys Strong is just one one. If Aemond doesn't want to hear what he has to say he is easily taken care of. Just as Lyman Beesbury was. If Aemond had taken command of the Green forces in the field and successfully retaken KL with his dragon and the armies no one would have stood against him. And everybody would have preferred him as king, anyway, considering that he was neither a cripple nor a fat glutton. He was a true warrior.
  5. Why did Criston Cole support Aegon II?

    Then I can't help you. However, a lot of your arguments could be used for the Stark characters in the wake of the Red Wedding. 'There time is over now. They were only introduced to be brutally butchered' etc. Nobody does that because the POVs were introduced in the first book. Thus I see little reason to discard other POVs who were later introduced. There are those among them who might not last until the end but I don't think Davos, Brienne, Jaime, and even Cersei are among them. They play way too prominent roles (now) than to suddenly die an ignominious death. What kind of a bloodbath are you expecting for the Brotherhood by the way? There are no hints for such a thing. Nobody likes the Lannisters in the Riverlands and everybody hates the Freys. With the hostages leaving the Twins all the Riverlords will rise against the Freys, not just some outlaws. There is also no hint that Catelyn is going to die soon. She has just returned from death and we don't even know if she can be killed by conventional means. After all, unlike Beric she is pretty much a zombie.
  6. Loyalists and Aegon´s disinheritance

    Well, that was Luwin expecting the crannogmen to join him. As far as we know that never happened because nobody ever mentions any crannogmen among Robb's hosts. Sure, but they went there to convince him to go there, right? And Howland was fine with all that because he gave them permission to go in the first place. Well, then they could have stayed at home, couldn't they? One assumes (or rather I do) that Howland Reed was not exactly dependent on his son's dreams to tell him what to do or what to expect. The man lived and learned with the Green Men, after all. One expects him to have some talents of his own. I mean, every lord who came to the harvest feast brought a retinue but the Reeds did not. That certainly wasn't a coincidence. That was Howland at the time of his return from the Isle of Faces. We don't know what he learned in the meantime or who contacted him since then. My idea is that there has to be some proof independent of Jon Snow's existence that Rhaegar and Lyanna were married. We don't yet know why they went underground and did not live a happy short life on Dragonstone or at court. My idea is that George is going to reveal that Rhaegar and Lyanna married somewhere rather publicly shortly after the abduction (I have Maidenpool in mind because of the Florian-Jonquil association and the fact that Rhaegar had friends there). That then caused Aerys to call for Rhaegar's head because he had no permission to do such a thing and because he saw it as proof for the Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy he already saw in the coronation of Lyanna at Harrenhal. Brandon and Rickard were executed as Rhaegar's accomplices, not because Brandon had threatened him. Aerys wouldn't have had a problem with anyone threatening his ingrate son at that time. However, the Starks insisting that they were no traitors and refusing to confess their crimes could explain why they were treated the way they were. That all only makes real sense if Ned believes/knows that Jon is Rhaegar's legitimate child. A bastard would never be danger to Robert's claim nor would he be the target of Robert's wrath. Ned would not have been forced to disguise Lyanna's son as his bastard if he could also have made him her bastard - which would have been possible if nobody had any inclination that Rhaegar and Lyanna were married. I really don't see that. As @Protagoras has pointed out what you describe as a subversion of the trope actually is the trope. It is effectively the very same thing as the story of both Aragorn and Simon Mooncalf. Aragorn had to prove his ability to rule in battle as well as in prophecy and while his life is not covered in TLotR in detail the appendices tell us how he serves among the Rohirrin and in Gondor in his youth. The only difference between your view of Jon and Aragorn is that Aragorn already knows who he is in the story - but then, in his youth Elrond also kept the truth from him so even that is there in this character. And the only difference between your version of Jon and Simon is that Simon never joined some weirdo warrior monks order. Aside from that they are pretty much the same. But I don't see the world George has build allow for a Osten Ard-like naive ending. Everything is not going to resolve itself because the hero has proven his worth etc. Especially not in this setting where the majority of the Lords of Westeros doesn't even realize that this Jon Snow fellow actually exists, nor are any of them impressed by his leadership qualities. The idea that this could change in his favor is not very realistic. And while he has made some alliances in the North he never really saved the Realm as of yet. The South was never threatened by Mance's wildlings - the lords down there had butchered them had they ever crossed the Neck - and for the people he saved he just prolonged the misery. The Others aren't defeated and unless the Wall is not going to fall a lot of people will most definitely die. Sure, that is a possibility. In fact, I'm pretty sure that most of the people jumping the Aegon bandwagon will end up opposing Daenerys - meaning that she might in the end make common cause with people who never were Targaryen loyalists. The examples you give are very unlikely indeed. The Mallisters are prisoners in their own castle right now Jonos Bracken has just joined King Tommen. It is not the Tullys sucking up to Aegon it is Aegon sucking up to them. We are not talking the Tullys sending soldiers to Aegon or anything like that. We are talking about Aegon looking at the situation in the Riverlands and (morally) supporting the people who are dealing with the scum no king who wants to be popular would ever make common cause with. Not to mention that the Riverlords might be aware that their liberation is only going to work because the Golden Company and Dorne are going to tie the hands of the Tyrells.
  7. Loyalists and Aegon´s disinheritance

    Right now, the Seven Kingdoms are fracturing. Legal power and rights mean less and less these days. Joffrey gave the Riverlands to Littlefinger but the man failed to consolidate his power there. Aegon most likely would not let that stand. The Tullys - and the Riverlords in general - are now Aegon's natural allies against the Lannister-Tyrell regime. It would be foolish to antagonize them without good reason. If Edmure died and Littlefinger-Robert-Sansa ended up not supporting (or openly opposing) Aegon I could see him granting the Riverlands to somebody else entirely. But right now the smart thing to do is to make an alliance with them. And there are hints that this is going to happen with Bonifer Hasty and the Holy Hundred holding Harrenhal right now. They should become a focal point of Targaryen loyalists in the Riverlands. But considering that Hasty is effectively a man of the Faith likely to soon join the Warrior's Sons he would not want a lordship for himself. In addition, you have to keep in mind that Aegon being seen righting the wrongs done in his Realm in his absence would also help his cause. Meaning him offering assistance to avenge those harmed in the Red Wedding would be a very smart policy. Even if it is just lip service or a formal restoration of House Tully to Riverrun and the Riverlands.
  8. Loyalists and Aegon´s disinheritance

    That is a possibility. But dragon or not, Daeron was a weak follower and would be easily dominated by a man like Peake. He even allowed some bastard and a sot to push him around, after all. That is just willful ignorance on your part. Aegon II fed his own sister to his dragon. What makes you believe Aemond or Daeron are exempt from such a treatment assuming they displeased him? We are talking here about a scenario in which Aemond Targaryen defeats Rhaenyra and retakes the Iron Throne before Aegon II's fate is revealed to the public. If he believes his brother dead and has won the loyalty of the remaining Green lords he would be their king, not some guy who they presume dead. And should that man then turn up dragonless and in a bad shape he would be a threat to King Aemond's reign, not the king anybody wanted to restore. Why the hell should anyone prefer Aegon the Cripple to Aemond the Great?
  9. Why did Criston Cole support Aegon II?

    That's nonsense. King Robert also pardoned people like Jaime, Pycelle, Varys, Selmy - who were all his sworn enemies at one point. Jaehaerys I and Aegon III apparently also did not put down the people once following the traitors and usurpers Maegor the Cruel and Aegon II (nor did Aegon II put down all the people once serving Rhaenyra). Aerys II is long dead and Aegon has to prove his mettle and take the throne. He has a claim but to push it he doesn't have to consider his grandfather a great guy or go along with everything he did. Daeron II also had severe issues with everything his father did. The point is that they would shut about it. If Aerys' grandson can forgive his murderer so can they. A king leads by example. And I'm not sure who specifically hates Jaime right now. The Dornishmen, Reachers, Stormlanders, Vale men, Westermen have no reason to particularly hate Jaime. The Riverlanders and Northmen have some reasons, to be sure, because of Bran and the Red Wedding. But if Jaime is to survive his meeting with Catelyn this thing will be resolved anyway. Again, we are talking about a quid pro quo. Aegon isn't king yet, and the Lannisters and Tyrells still have the power to destroy him. If Jaime makes all that go away and gives him a chance to include the West into his regime he'll take that offer. Robert already forgave Jaime for that. Aegon can do so, too. No, it is Aegon acknowledging that his grandfather was a bad king and insane and had to be put down. This doesn't mean he approves of the manner of his demise but any king bent on willing the hearts of his people would be well advised to grant them the right to not follow a mad king.
  10. Why did Criston Cole support Aegon II?

    @Protagoras I think you have a completely wrong view of Brienne's role in this series. She was not introduced as a POV in AFfC to serve only as our eye on the effects of war. That was her purpose in that book but if she was not one of the core characters who would be built up for the final endgame George wouldn't have given her so many chapters or such a prominence in that book. AFfC is effectively more or less another 'first book', introducing many new characters who are going to become important later on. You have to go back to ASoS to get a real glimpse of her importance. It is all about Jaime's weirwood dream in ASoS. Brienne is important, not so much Jaime. It is Brienne Jaime has to save, Brienne who now has a Valyrian steel sword and, if we can trust Yandel, a Targaryen ancestor. Her magical blood should be able to ignite her sword much more brightly than Beric's blood could ignite a mundane sword. The darkness is coming and some people have to keep in at bay. The dragons alone are not enough. Not to mention that they aren't even there yet. The idea that Jaime and Brienne being at the same place right now doesn't many any of them has to die. Just as Theon and Asha don't have to die. George could go back and forth between POVs who are at the same place as he has done before or he could separate the POVs again. I don't know if Brienne remains in the Riverlands but she could also leave the Brotherhood and join Aegon (Tarth has recently been conquered by the Golden Company). Or she could be doing something else. The idea that she is done because it appears she no longer has a purpose because her fool's errand is over now only makes sense if you assume she was only introduced as a character for that purpose. I also have difficulty to see an end for the Brotherhood and Catelyn, by the way. They are on the rise right now, not in decline. They have the means and the plans to destroy their enemies and they should be able to pull it off. Catelyn is not going to go down in a whimpering like Beric did. What would be the point of that? Why bring Catelyn Stark back when she is not going to show herself to the world and interact with her children once again in some manner? Or with Littlefinger? The time for the Brotherhood might be over soon, though, because with the Blackfish and the other Riverlords whose hands have now been untied thanks to Jaime's stupidity this whole thing could become an official movement.
  11. Loyalists and Aegon´s disinheritance

    It is not that. It is just that the rules of that society don't allow for the election or choosing of a man as king who basically hasn't any real base of power or isn't particularly interested in being king. Saving the world isn't the kind of thing that would lead to Jon being acknowledged as king if he wasn't also trying to be king or effectively already king when he used an army to save the world. Stannis only can intend to win the throne by saving his people because he has already made a claim. If things unfolded in a way in which Jon just became a Frodo-like character defeating the Others with the help of a few trusted companions then he wouldn't be king thereafter unless George suddenly changed the rules of the society he has created. That is not likely to happen. But then, I expect Jon to end up in 'team Targaryen' thanks to his heritage. With that as basis he could become king. But it isn't going to be the reward the lords bestow on him on some Great Council in the end. He will just take the torch from Dany or continue to rule Westeros at her side.
  12. Why did Criston Cole support Aegon II?

    Definitely. Brienne certainly is among the characters who will make it too the bitter end.
  13. Rhaegars orders for Gerold, Arthur and Oswell at the Tower of Joy.

    Only if we assume it was revealed there. Which we have no reason up to that point. And if he had married her he could have prevented it from ever coming out. Daemon and Rhaenyra apparently also married rather quickly to ensure she would not give birth to a bastard. So this kind of thing was not unknown. At that time Dorne had not yet bent the knee. The war could have continued and certainly would have had Lord Dayne sent Robert Eddard Stark's head. Only if it had been some vague memory of Ashara. But if it had been concrete, say, about her loss as well as about the loss of their daughter then things would have been pretty clear. It might have. Ned's last chapter is not really very focused on his memories nor very coherent. I don't see a reason why bringing back some sword should excuse treason and murder. I also don't expect that Robb would have forgiven Joffrey had the boy sent him Ice. There must have been a reason why Ned thought he had to go to Starfall, personally, and a reason why he thought he could survive such a journey. Not to mention a reason why he thought he could involve any Daynes (and their people) into the whole Jon Snow thing. Considering that we know nothing about Lord Dayne up to this point Ashara is the best guess for all of that. Not sure how that would have worked. There is little reason to believe they spent much time with each other outside Harrenhal, and hanging out with somebody for a fortnight doesn't create great bonds of friendship. And there is no hint that shy Ned was the type of man who could establish some sort of platonic friendship with a gorgeous young woman he apparently had the hots for.
  14. Loyalists and Aegon´s disinheritance

    So what? It is strange that Robb took none of them with him as far as we know when Eddard Stark took at least Howland Reed with him when he rode to war back in the day. The Neck lies on the way and the crannogmen owe fealty to House Stark. I see no reason why some of them could not have bolstered the ranks of the army. Not 1,000 or so but, say, a few hundred. Jojen had green dreams, had he not? Could be that he only had the sea devouring Winterfell dream after his arrival but if Howland had come himself to Winterfell or had sent some trusted and powerful adult (or a few men-at-arms) those people could have helped to convince the men in charge at Winterfell to heed Jojen's words. Not to mention that they could have helped to arrange Bran's journey to Bloodraven had Winterfell not fallen. If we assume Winterfell had not fallen - and Howland did not foresee or allow that to happen - then Bran would never have been allowed to undertake that fool's errand to the lands beyond the Wall. We also have no idea what Howland Reed learned from the Green Men. The man actually could be among the most powerful sorcerers/seers/whatever in the entire series. Not necessarily against Robert and Ned but perhaps against Joffrey? If would depend how this new situation would have changed Jon's feelings about Ned. The idea that everything would have been fine doesn't make much sense to me. Just imagine what you would think if you parents basically told you that they lied to you your entire life and made your life miserable by doing so. Being raised as Ned's bastard was not that bad but compared to what Jon's life could have been had he known who he actually was it was very bad indeed. Jon only rejected Winterfell because it came from Stannis and was a conditional offer including the public rejection of the old gods and the burning of the godswood of Winterfell. And he was convinced that as a Stark bastard he had no right to it while Sansa (and possibly Arya) yet lived. As Rhaegar's son Jon could make a completely different claim not necessarily overshadowed by the specter of bastardy. That is not true. If you carefully reread AGoT then you realize that Ned feared Robert might kill Cersei's children the same way he did not punish/look the other when Tywin had Rhaegar's children killed. But that is not the same as wishing the death of every Targaryen descendant, legitimate or illegitimate. Elia and her children were nothing to Robert. But Lyanna was the love of his life and Lyanna's son her son as well as Ned's nephew. Do you think Robert would have allowed anyone to treat Lyanna the same way Gregor treated Elia? Do you think he would have wanted to smash the head of Lyanna's son against a wall? I don't think so. And I don't think Ned truly believed any of that. I think Ned feared that Robert might look the other way if there was another Targaryen prince out there, fathered by Rhaegar. But if there was just some bastard out there is no reason to believe Robert would have hunted them all down. Aerys II could have had dozens of bastards from all those mistresses he had yet there is no mentioning of Robert ever searching for them. Finally there is the fact that Ned remained Robert's friend. That makes only sense if Ned never truly believed that Robert would actually kill his nephew. You are not friends with a man who might kill a member of your family. Ned might have feared that Robert might look the other way/not prevent the murder of his nephew (or only that the child would be taken from him to be raised as a hostage) but he clearly did not expect that Robert himself would kill Jon. Later in AGoT - after the Lady incident and the Daenerys assassination plan - Ned might have been willing to believe Robert himself might order the murder of Rhaegar's legitimate son (and it is pretty clear, I think, that Ned is defending Dany as fiercely as he does because he very much knows that it could just as well be Jon) but earlier on it makes no sense that he would believe that. The world George has created leaves little room for idealistic concepts like that. If a throne could be earned that Hot Pie or Podrick should earn it, not some hidden prince who already has a legal blood claim to it. The society George has created does not care about what you do. It cares about your blood and your ancestry. And if a guy who has the right blood ends up on the throne that's not going to happen because he is a great guy.
  15. Rhaegars orders for Gerold, Arthur and Oswell at the Tower of Joy.

    I don't think so. Robb did this because of Jon. He didn't want to father a bastard. But Ned and his siblings grew up in a different time. The vibe I get from Harrenhal and the pre-Rebellion years is that this generation grew up as much as the 'knights of the summer' as Renly's followers. Even Ned might have been willing to follow his heart. Especially if he intended to marry the woman he had fallen in love with. Sure, but that would have meant that the truth about Jon would have been revealed back then. Or at least the possibility that Ashara was the mother would have been debunked. George didn't want to do that. Selmy might not see the dishonoring in Ned and Ashara having sex but that he later broke their betrothal/didn't marry her. And we should also keep in mind that it is very unlikely that Ned could have left Starfall alive if he and Ashara weren't close in some way. If they hadn't had any connection then Lord Dayne could just have had them killed when they showed up there. The man wouldn't have been happy about the death of his brother.