Lord Varys

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About Lord Varys

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    Most Devious 'Man' In The Seven Kingdoms
  • Birthday 11/25/1982

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    Definitely somewhere in King's Landing

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  1. Val is Jon’s true Queen. Part trois.

    @CaliWolf That isn't very convincing. The only 'resurrected people' the wildlings know as far as we know are the wights. And they don't exactly like them. I agree that the wildlings would prefer Jon Snow as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch to Bowen Marsh. But part of this problem can be solved rather easily by actually killing Bowen Marsh. Tormund and his people no longer need Jon Snow or the Night's Watch, actually. They are now south of the Wall and can do whatever the hell they like and they have the upper hand. There are a few hundred of black brothers left but Tormund brought 4,000 wildlings with him. There is a good chance that they might want to avenge Jon Snow but no reason to believe they would want to resurrect him. Because, you know, that kind of thing isn't exactly done on a routine basis if some leader gets assassinated. Nobody tried to resurrect Raymun Redbeard, Jeor Mormont, Robert Baratheon, Aerys or Rhaegar Targaryen, or Eddard Stark. And Val should be able to fend for herself now that other wildlings are there. I don't think she needs Jon Snow to protect her. She can do that herself, especially considering that she obviously gets along rather splendidly with Tormund. The only reason I can see that Jon Snow returns from the dead is if Melisandre's kiss of fire (as part of his funeral ritual) accidentally resurrects his body. Even if people realizes that his spirit survived in Ghost should they not decide they have to resurrect him. After all, the skinchanger Borroq would tell them that such a second life is normal for a skinchanger. If George truly gave a lot of characters stupid motivations to actually resurrect Jon Snow the story would suffer a lot.
  2. Military strengths of the Houses of Westeros

    @Free Northman Reborn You cannot just take the numbers prior to the Red Wedding and then assume that Roose didn't lose any men during the butchery. They killed thousands of men in that night, and Lord Walder lost men, too. The idea that Roose didn't lose any doesn't make much sense.
  3. R+L=J v.162

    There are actually pretty strong hints that the Trident was just a background detail for George in the beginning, with not big revelations or plot development happening there. We've yet no idea what the purpose of that battle was, how it came to be (who was attacking whom/was trying to win what ground, who was leading what section of what army, and so on) nor where the other major characters like Ned, Jon, Hoster, Brynden, etc. were. All that doesn't make it very likely that George didn't had a clear picture of the battle when he wrote AGoT. And as of yet he has only expanded on the details not touching the details around the Rhaegar-Robert battle (i.e. the roles Lyn Corbray and Prince Lewyn played during the battle). Perhaps we'll get additional details about where Ned, Hoster, Jon, and Brynden were (after all, the latter is still alive) but I'm not holding my breath about additional details about the Rhaegar-Robert confrontation. What I hope to get is more information on the beginning of the battle and whether there was some sort of last parley.
  4. Military strengths of the Houses of Westeros

    @Free Northman Reborn We don't have to buy your 4,000 men at Moat Cailin at face value. It could have been more but it could also have been much less men. If I tell you that two tenths of this or that is remaining then you should not assume that I did calculate things properly. I just made a guess. Just as Theon would have done. And he did not only not know how many men Robb actually had in the beginning nor did he actually count the men. If he had done so he would given us a proper number not just some estimation.
  5. Military strengths of the Houses of Westeros

    That is not necessarily true. We only know that some Barrowton men died at the Twins. But we don't know if all of them died. Robb Stark did split up the armies at the Twins. If Barrowton and Ryswell men remained with Robb's cavalry then they wouldn't have been part of the Red Wedding. And neither would have been Roose's horsemen who remained with Robb throughout the entire war, by the way. The idea that Roose took the men with him he rid himself before because he could not trust them makes little sense. It is much more likely he picked up some Karstark men on the way up to the Twins (from those men who abandoned Robb at Riverrun) if we assume he didn't have all that many left. And again, if we go with 4,000 Bolton men returning then Theon's 5,000-6,000 men at Winterfell don't make all that much sense. Theon had more than enough time to get a pretty good picture of the men assembled at Barrowton and later Winterfell due to his long walks among the castle, the food they were eating, and so forth. The idea that he had the same good picture of the men that returned at Moat Cailin makes no sense. Keep in mind that Roose would already have had about 5,000 men simply by adding the Frey contingent to his own men, not counting the men Lady Barbrey, Ramsay, and the Ryswells assembled in the North, and not counting the Umber levies and the Manderlys at Winterfell, either. And neither the Cerwyn, Tallhart, and Hornwood men that are later at Winterfell, too. If Theon had said 6,000-7,000 men your reasoning would make sense. But he doesn't do that. Some of his own might have died, though. And he may have given command to not kill any Bolton/Dustin/Ryswell men in Robb's army who weren't in on the plot. Some of them might have died anyway, defending their fellow Northmen from the Freys (who wouldn't have cared all that much) but we can be reasonably sue that Roose made it perfectly clear that he would not suffer it if anybody killed any of his mounted retainers who had remained with Robb. That is talk about the men at Winterfell. Nobody said anything about them returning home with Roose. Later on he included them among him men, but that doesn't mean they were with him since the Twins. Some few might have returned from there. Once the butchering was over they would have not continued to kill the men. However, it would have been very few men indeed. Not enough to ever dare to oppose Roose or become problems. Why would those loyal Stark men want to join the traitor who had killed their king? It makes little sense. It is much more likely that they dispersed.
  6. R+L=J v.162

    Nothing suggests that Jorah Mormont of all people was a close witness of Rhaegar's death. The man would have been there somewhere in the battle but he wasn't exactly a very good friend of either Ned's nor Robert's especially considering that he only got his knighthood at Pyke. Now, we don't even know where the hell Ned, Hoster, Brynden, and Jon were when Robert killed Rhaegar, so it would be even a stretch to assume that they witnessed the whole thing like some spectator would. If they were close by they would have seen stuff, but they would also have fought and killed other people or commanded men. The battle wasn't exactly over at that point. Finally, there is Jorah Mormont himself to be considered. The guy is not without an agenda there when he counsels Dany to go to Astapor. He mistrusts Belwas, Arstan, Groleo, and Illyrio, and he wants to remain the guy Daenerys is dependent upon. How better way to convince her to listen to him than by painting her brother as a noble fool who fought nobly and honorable but died. Jorah wants Dany to buy the Unsullied so he first has to motivate her to do so. Stressing the fact that Rhaegar lost his war and died is a good way to accomplish that. Even more so if you tell a story suggesting to her that her brother was making mistakes and could have won had he fought less honorably. The idea that this means that Rhaegar dismounted and continued 'the duel' on foot makes little sense in that context. Even more so considering that pretty much everything suggests that Robert knocked Rhaegar out of his saddle not vice versa. In fact, I doubt that the Robert-Rhaegar fight took very long. Robert charged, and attacked Rhaegar with everything he got. Considering Robert's awesome strength and his mad fury it is not very likely that Rhaegar's armor was able to withstand the war hammer for long. And unless Rhaegar had a Valyrian steel sword (Dark Sister?) it is very unlikely that his sword would have been more than nuisance to Robert. Robert could afford to be hit by such a weapon multiple times, especially while they were riding, but Rhaegar couldn't possibly survive more than a few blasts from that war hammer. Keep in mind that the thing is so heavy that Ned actually says he could scarcely lift the it. If that's even remotely true Rhaegar should have been dead meat after a single blow to the head, helmet or not.
  7. Military strengths of the Houses of Westeros

    The Tallharts and Glovers aren't landed knights, though. They are equivalent to those or seem to be that. But they are scarcely the most powerful of those, either, considering that the Fossoways seem to be landed knights, too, and Ser Jon Fossoway was prestigious enough to marry Mace Tyrell's sister. I very much doubt that such a family can only raise 1,500 men. Two men out of ten isn't necessarily 4,000 men. Robb didn't have exactly 20,000 men and Theon didn't count the men who returned. It could be 4,500 or 3,300 for all we know. More importantly, you have to keep in mind that all the men who returned with Roose would have to be Bolton men in a very real sense. They survived the Red Wedding only because they participated in it and were thus complicit in the murder of their king and his mother as well as their fellow Northmen. The idea that Roose would allow any men to return home with him who might later spread tales he did not want to hear or fuel rebellion isn't very likely. The bulk of the men would have been Dreadfort men but there would have been others. Trusted freeriders, Ryswell levies and whatever few Dustin men Lady Barbrey sent down south, but the majority of the non-Bolton men would actually have been Karstark men because the majority of the men Roose brought to the Twins before the Red Wedding were Karstark men who were either fine with murdering Robb Stark (because the man beheaded their liege lord) or even actively participated in the Red Wedding one way or another. Regardless how many men Roose brought home with him they would all be Bolton men in the sense that they are now with him to the end or dead. In that sense I'd not insist on the 4,000 men coming home with Roose because that would men that Roose has 4,000 men with him at Winterfell right now on whose loyalty he can be completely sure. The men surviving/participating in the Red Wedding would not be interesting in allowing their fellow Northmen to question them about their role in it. It gives us a good indication how the border line looks in the West. But not necessarily how it is in the east. Nobody said their lands extended 300 miles along the coast, not to mention that we don't know whether they control all the lands in between. The mountain clans aren't an political entity. They are different clans with different parcels of land who often quarrel with their neighbors. We don't whether the Dustins rule all the Barrowlands or the Ryswells all the Rills. And even if we did, we have no idea about the borders of those regions. Was the place Robert and Ned had their conversation in AGoT on Dustin land? Do the Ryswells also rule Cape Kraken? We have no idea. The Boltons certainly aren't weak and they were a pain in the ass to the Starks in the past but we don't know how powerful they were in the past when they still wore crowns. But the Royces, Reynes, and Yronwoods seem to play in an entirely different league than the Boltons. While the Boltons were powerful petty kings back in their days the Royces, Reynes, and Yronwood came pretty close to actually rule the very kingdoms the Arryns, Lannisters, and Martells later conquered. But the Boltons never came even close to conquer the entire North, nor are they right now stronger than the other powerful Lords of the North like the Manderlys, Karstarks, and Dustins. You should not make the mistakes that being a guy like Roose or Walder means you are much more powerful than your peers. It just means you are very ambitious. Even the Red Lion didn't really have the power to truly challenge the might of Casterly Rock. Not on his own. All he could do was hope that many of his peers would either join him against Tywin/Tytos or at least stay out of the conflict.
  8. Military strengths of the Houses of Westeros

    @Free Northman Reborn There is no reason to believe that the Glovers and Tallharts are militarily weaker than any other northern houses. There are landed knights in the South who can raise as many men as the more powerful lordly houses. The Boltons being powerful kings in the past doesn't mean they are still as powerful now. The Starks may have taken some lands from them, after all. Not to mention that being a powerful king may just mean that you have a good hold over your subjects, not necessarily that you are keen to attack your neighbors all the time. The Red Kings may have just liked their independence, fighting back again and again when those cutthroats at Winterfell dared to invade their lands again and again. As to the cavalry size: We don't know how many mounted men the Starks actually had. It is not unlikely that the bulk of Robb's cavalry were actually Winterfell men in one sense or another (i.e. mens owning horses living at Winterfell or people leaving on Winterfell lands in the surrounding areas). We don't have any idea how large the lands are the lords in the North control directly. We don't know what exactly are Stark lands, Bolton lands, and so forth. We have shady impression what might be Umber lands and Glover lands and Karstark lands, but we have no clue how big they are in reality. When Lord Wyman tells us how far his influence goes he doesn't talk about the amount of people that a sworn to White Harbor, he is talking about the people who look to him for leadership on an informal level. That is much different from the lands/houses he actually controls, especially in a time in which the Starks are actually gone.
  9. R+L=J v.162

    We have no reason to believe that Jon's resurrection is going to change Melisandre's view on Azor Ahai's identity. It is Stannis. And Stannis isn't dead. Nobody heralded Beric Dondarrion as a reborn savior despite the fact that he returned from the dead multiple times. Right now nobody knows or suspects that Jon Snow has Targaryen blood - and even if Mel did, that would make him a much better sacrifice for Stannis' cause rather than some kind of Stannis replacement. That makes no sense. Selyse Florent's one redeeming quality in the books (aside from her attractive moustache) is her love for her only child. In the books Selyse is doting on Shireen, not Stannis. The idea that Selyse would push Mel to actually sacrifice Shireen makes no sense at all. Especially considering that Stannis' alleged death would now actually put much more legal power in her and Ser Axell's hand since they would now serve as the Regent and Hand for young Queen Shireen. In addition, we also have reason to believe that Bran/Bloodraven will actually make contact with Stannis before the coming battle and intervene on his behalf during the fighting. Not sure on what you base any of that. But having a lot of magical rituals to heal or resurrect Jon Snow doesn't look like anything that would grow naturally out of the situation as it is right now at the Wall nor would it be something the people there would want to do. As to the whole Rhaegar-Robert thing: While there were historically sort of semi-official duels in the middle of battles in Westeros (Daemon Blackfyre-Gwayne Corbray, Bloodraven-Bittersteel 1.0 & 2.0) there is no reason to believe that Robert and Rhaegar had a similar fight. They met each other in battle in a ford. It is not very that there was time or opportunity for a real duel or even chivalric gestures. It could just as well be that Robert saw Rhaegar's banner, charged in that direction and they then had attacked each other in the middle of the fighting.
  10. R+L=J v.162

    Jon and Aemon consider the danger of future blood sacrifices done by Melisandre but they are obviously overestimating the dangers there. Before Melisandre would considering burning Stannis Baratheon's daughter there are quite a few other sacrifices she would approach first. Gilly's son, Val, 'Arya Stark', Gerrick Kingsblood and his daughters, Axell and Selyse Florents (who are descended from the royal line of House Gardener). Lord Alester's death helped Mel to create that great wind that carried the fleet to Eastwatch. But then, nothing suggests that there will be a blood sacrifice to bring back Jon Snow. Or any blood sacrifice at all. Melisandre is not exactly in the position to burn people with impunity right now.
  11. Military strengths of the Houses of Westeros

    It is not stated anywhere directly but Gyldayn's description of the Field of Fire makes it pretty clear that it was in the middle of summer due to the fact that he wheat was ripe and everything was very dry to the hot weather. Technically it could have been autumn but one should assume that Aegon wouldn't have begun a potentially long war shortly before winter. And we also know that the Arryns still lived at the Eyrie and Queen Sharra actually had prepared the castle for a siege. She wouldn't have done that in autumn shortly before she would have been forced to move the Arryn court to the Vale anyway. As to Dorne: I've argued that Daeron I's account might not have been so wrong, after all, if we keep in mind that the Dornish smallfolk resistance during the Conquest of Dorne was also conducted and led by Dornishwomen as well as Dornishmen. Even if Dorne could only field 30,000 or so spearmen then Daeron I could still have fought against 50,000 people during his war because a lot women fought and killed his troops during the occupation of Dorne. But Doran Martell is not likely to be able to count those female resistance fighters (or the old and the young who might contribute in such a battle) among his regular soldiers. The men he would use to actually wage a war outside of Dorne.
  12. I don't build any elaborative narratives, either. I just don't see any good reason not to believe the rumors about Alicent and Daemon. I'm more skeptical about the rumors involving Alicent and the Old King but then - what right would Alicent Hightower have had to reject the advances of the king had he confused her with Alysanne in his senility? I can easily see her being forced to have sex with him because she was in no position to refuse him. We are talking about Jaehaerys I Targaryen here, not some person you can refuse easily. I'm not sure on what you base this macho-hero thing. There is no great list of Daemon's conquests being given nor do we have a good reason to believe he had many affairs. Mysaria is mentioned as his permanent mistress once he became Lord Commander of the City Watch, after all. Indeed. But it seems to be the case that somebody or he himself made it clearly he had Alicent first. And we also have to keep in mind that Viserys seems to have had an affair with Alicent, too, before he married her. There is clearly a pattern to be seen there. Viserys was married to Aemma, had an affair with Alicent, Aemma died, and Alicent married Viserys. Daemon was married to Rhea Royce, Alicent had an affair with him, and hoped that Rhea would died of be set aside so that she could marry Daemon. I'm not sure what you know about depression as a sickness but it is very bad form to claim a person suffering from it was happy because he was sitting on throne. Not everybody wants to sit on a throne, and depressive people don't enjoy life regardless how much they should from your healthy point of view. But it isn't. The testaments and wills and wishes or kings and lords are as important as the abstract birth order. King Robb disinherited his own sister, Sansa Lannister, and seems to have legitimized Jon Snow to name him his heir, King Stannis considered disinheriting his own daughter, Princess Shireen in favor of his younger brother Renly, Rohanne Webber's succession to Coldmoat was conditional and rightfully so, Tywin Lannister never acknowledged and named Tyrion Lannister his heir, the succession to Rosby is unclear after the death of Lord Gyles because the Iron Throne didn't recognize his ward as his heir, and so on. Even in Dorne Princess Arianne believes that her father, Prince Doran, can disinherit her in favor of her younger brother, Prince Quentyn. It is pretty obvious that the wishes and will and decrees of kings and lords are usually followed in this society. If this wasn't the case then nobody would ever name any heirs and nothing would ever change. You are not making sense here. Viserys I was Otto's king. And Viserys I had settled the succession. So Otto Hightower speaking with the King's Voice daring to discuss the succession again after his king's death is treason, plan and simple. As the king's servant you cannot act against the king's will if he already has made a decision on it. Or do you think Ned had the authority to cancel the Tourney of the Hand or the assassination of Daenerys Targaryen after his king had commanded it? People knew Viserys I's view on the succession. Thus Otto and Alicent were betraying their king not those people pointing out that fact. Dragonstone and Driftmark are part of the Seven Kingdoms. Thus the Triarchy, a foreign power, attacked the Seven Kingdoms. You are also aware of the fact that you can deceive your enemy in war, claiming you want peace while actually preparing for war, right? That was what both sides were doing this early in the war. Neither was prepared to give up and if Rhaenyra had send her sons to court they would have been killed, as would she and Daemon had they ever shown up there. That makes no sense, either. Stannis has overwhelming odds against him yet he presses on. And Rhaenyra had much more dragons than Aegon II. They could have conquered Westeros all over again the Conqueror's way. We know she later on gave terms, do we not? That's the way it looks at first glance. But Gyldayn tells us that neighbors were fighting neighbors in the war. Unless that is just stupid talk we have to believe that no region was completely for one claimant or another. There might have been Greens in the North and Blacks in the West although in those regions (and the Vale) it is clear that the majority of the lords sticked to one side. In the Riverlands the Tullys kept out of the war for most of the time like the Tyrells did. But the Riverlords themselves declared for Rhaenyra in their majority, defeated the few Greens there and were then later supported by the Tullys once Lord Elmo took over. Borros Baratheon brought some army to KL but we have no idea whether he had all the Stormlords with him or not. The same actually goes for Jason Lannister's host and Cregan Stark's host, too. Even for the armies Lady Jeyne Arryn sent. You are talking about Jacaerys, of course, and I think you overestimate the size of his dragon Vermax. It wasn't as small as Drogon right now, presumably, but not that much larger, either, so I very much doubt that such a dragon would have been a great threat to the North. Especially considering that you do know that neither Jace nor Luke had been given permission by their royal mother to actually engage anyone in combat. Or they were too afraid that their treason would be uncovered and thus remained silent. You do recall that Viserys I had once dismissed Ser Otto already for pushing him about the succession. If the king had learned that his father-in-law plotted against his daughter and heir he might not have just dismissed him. He might have executed him. They were killing and imprisoning their enemies at court as soon as Viserys died, and they also send their letters to known and likely allies. That they also meant then and there lists of people who were likely to support or oppose them is no surprise. The Realm is pretty big, after all.
  13. Wee question on Dragonbinder

    Well, obviously they thought they could deal with Dany anyway or underestimated the power/strength of Drogon. Else they would either have used the horn or Pyat Pree would never have allowed Daenerys to take Drogon with her into the House of the Undying. I think the mistake you are making here is that you think Dany is special because of her dragons. She could also have dragons because she is special. If the prophecy stuff surrounding Dany the Undying showed her is true then she is very special as a person whose coming has been prophesied, not because she got herself some dragons. A lot of people had dragons in the past who weren't necessarily special in the same sense. We don't really know what the motives of the Undying were but it seems they were interested in sucking Dany's life force out of her, perhaps drinking her 'magical specialness and destiny' along with it, making themselves a meal that would last them for quite a long time. It seems they are basically magical vampires of a sort, but we don't know on what kind of people they feed. They might not be all that interested in 'normal people'. Ran suggested the Qartheen might have been to Valyrian at one point after the Doom and done what Euron claims he did. No idea if that makes much sense. But the idea that Undying took it from some defeated Valyrian dragonlord in the past who died in the Red Waste in the wake of some war isn't a big stretch. Oh, I didn't mean a replica that doesn't work. I meant a Qartheen copy of a Valyrian dragon horn. If you understand the magic you should be able to make a similar artifact. That is why one of better ideas is actually that horns like Dragonrider are able to create new lines of dragonlords, binding a new non-dragonlord family to a dragon and its future offspring. If that was the case then it would actually be irrelevant whose blood was smeared on the horn (Euron's or Victarion's) because both are Greyjoys and would subsequently be able to claim one of the dragons. But I actually don't think that's the case because the whole 'blood of the dragon' thing actually suggests dragonlords created themselves by literally merging their blood with that of the dragons. That doesn't seem to work with a horn. The other good idea would be that it works to subdue a wild dragon (quite risky even for a person with dragonlord blood) or to sever the existing bond between a rider and its dragon (to steal said dragon). I'm pretty sure the origin and true powers of Dragonbinder will be discussed. Tyrion should know at least a little bit about such horns and Marwyn perhaps even more.
  14. Daemon didn't return for the Great Council to KL, though. That one was at Harrenhal, and we have no idea where he was raising his sellswords. Could have been in the Vale. King Viserys I, his brother, was his boss. We have no reason to assume the Hand directly interfered with Daemon's duties and tasks on the Small Council, nor do we have any reason that he actually cleaned up any messes. Well, Otto might quickly have decided that Daemon wasn't a great administrator and stuff but that is one thing - actually trying to get him fired and then scheming to withhold the Crown from him by convincing Viserys I to name Rhaenyra is quite a another thing. One should assume that Otto actually had a very good reason to do so not just a small clashes. I mean, he was truly interfering with the internal affairs of the royal family there. I do not doubt that Otto Hightower was a capable man in his way, but that is not really the issue. Daemon was much younger than he was and an impatient hothead at this age. It is not surprising that he wasn't a good Master of Coin or Master of Law. Whether Daemon sucked as King of the Narrow Sea or whether he eventually just lost interest in that kingdom or lacked the resources to establish a strong rule there is completely unclear. But then, the man was still both restless and more fickle than in later years at this point in time. During the Dance he is at first very cold and calculating, something that he clearly isn't in his earlier years.
  15. I've just reread the Theon chapter where Roose returns to Moat Cailin. He says only two in ten of Robb's ~20,000 men returned. That doesn't suggest he counted the men. It suggests he made sort of offhand calculation-like comment in his head on the basis of his impression of the size of the army. The idea that he actually counted the men makes no sense. And is it mathematically exactly two in ten or 2,4 or 1,6 in ten? I mean, Robb didn't have exactly 20,000 men so two in ten wouldn't be exactly 4,000 men even if Theon was correct. Manderly definitely didn't take his full strength with him to Winterfell. Neither his son and heir Wylis nor his cousin are with him, it seems. But Hother Umber took half of the Umber strength to Winterfell, Lady Dustin had no reason not to take the bulk of her strength to Winterfell considering that Roose and his allies first assembled at Barrowton. Whether those lords and ladies who came to Winterfell as wedding guests stayed there until Jeyne's abduction is completely unclear. Those who truly only came with an honor guard may have returned. We don't even know whether Lady Cerwyn was there, do we? How many Hornwood men are in Winterfell? And so on.