Lord Varys

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About Lord Varys

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    Most Devious 'Man' In The Seven Kingdoms
  • Birthday 11/25/1982

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    Definitely somewhere in King's Landing

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  1. Rhaenerya I Targaryen vs. Aegon II Targaryen

    I should be on vacation next week or so, too. Remind me not to visit the board while I'm supposed to have fun another way ;-). That is one interpretation and one I'd like to be true as well. But it could be that Ser Byron was just some courtier/guy who happened to be at court who swore fealty to Rhaenyra and then had the very bad idea to try to slay Syrax while she lay chained in the yard of the Red Keep. Considering that this would have been a much more boring scenario I definitely prefer yours. That certainly is true but the succession usually isn't something the subjects are permitted an opinion. Especially not in a medieval setting. The succession is settled between the members of the royal family or the descendants of the king and things usually get confused when there is no clear heir at hand. But both kings are counted among the legitimate monarchs of Westeros by the historians. But I guess we actually should see this as George refusing to add the appropriate level of complexity. A king like Maegar most definitely would have been condemned and eradicated from history after his downfall. Considering that the entire Realm rose against him in the end there is little reason to assume that anybody would have been interested to remember his reign or defend his achievements. This has nothing to do with the succession, though (although there are limits to this as well, but that's the nature of noble and royal blood - if you enter into morganatic marriage you cannot expect to rise to the throne). Aegon V seems to have taken away rights and liberties the lords enjoyed. Considering his agenda this would mostly have been connected to relationship between lords/landed knights and their smallfolk, not so much the relationship between the lords and their king (although he may also have done something in that department). But this is not necessarily evidence that the king's powers were limited. Such limits would demand that there was a legal institution limiting the king's powers - yet we don't know of any such institution. Westeros has no parliament and the Faith is under the thumb of the Crown since Maegor/Jaehaerys I. I'm pretty sure Aegon IV would have named Daemon Blackfyre his heir had the boy been older at the time of Aegon's death. But Aerys II did sort of change the succession when he named Viserys his heir rather than Aegon. But that is beside the point. The fact that Aegon IV thought he could name one of his bastards his heir strongly suggests that the concept of a king naming an heir was neither unheard of nor considered to be impossible after the Dance. Actually, it seems that it was tradition since the reign of Aegon I that the Heir Apparent was the Prince of Dragonstone. I asked Ran once whether Aenys being the Prince of Dragonstone when his father died was a mistake since 'The Sons of the Dragon' had Maegor as Prince of Dragonstone but that is apparently not the case. So the story apparently changed to Aenys being Heir Apparent and Prince of Dragonstone. My best guess is that the final version of events is that Aenys I gave not only Blackfyre but also Dragonstone to his half-brother Maegor when he rewarded him for crushing the rebellion in the Vale. After Maegor's exile Aenys I then took Dragonstone from Maegor and gave it to his son and heir, Prince Aegon. Maegor named Princess Aerea his heir after he disinherited Jaehaerys. However, we don't know whether he named her Princess of Dragonstone (but it is possible). We also have no idea whether Maegor had an heir presumptive earlier in his reign. Considering that Prince Viserys was his squire prior to his death he might have named him Prince of Dragonstone, too. Sure, it was as 'long-standing' as a Targaryen tradition in 105 AC could have been. But it was a pretty strong tradition considering that Daemon styled himself Prince of Dragonstone while he fancied himself Viserys I's heir and Viserys I then denied him that title (presumably because it was a title that came with being Heir Apparent and in Viserys' mind Daemon wasn't even his heir presumptive in 103-105 AC). I don't think that's very likely considering that Daemon and Otto would have interacted during Otto's second term as Hand. And even if Otto had reason to fear Daemon that doesn't give him the right to steal Rhaenyra's throne. Just as Littlefinger not liking Stannis is no justification for him trying to withhold the throne from Stannis if the man is truly Robert's rightful heir.
  2. MIA Dragons Post DotD

    @Free Northman Reborn Well, you have to go back and check the actual legend Yandel gives us. He says smallfolk claims the Cannibal was there since before the Targaryens came, not since before the Valyrians came. Thus nobody in-universe actually believed that the Cannibal was there before the Valyrians came. In addition, both Grand Maester Munkun and Septon Barth dismiss this rumor as nonsense. If it was just Munkun I'd be somewhat skeptical but not with Barth involved - especially considering that Barth was about as old Jaehaerys I and would thus have had access to knowledge and reports that might have been no longer (easily) available at the time of the Dance. It could be that people simply began telling special stories about a special dragon. After all, a cannibalistic dragon most certainly was pretty special and people would have wanted to know/understand why he was behaving this way. An interesting idea would be to think the Cannibal must not like the Targaryens and/or their dragons considering that he was eating the hatchlings. But that must not be the case. The smallfolk most certainly wouldn't have had reliable accounts about young dragons leaving the hatcheries on Dragonstone. They would only have learned that there was a new wild dragon once they saw him flying about the island. Parents on Dragonsotne would have told their children to stay clear of the lairs of the wild dragons (and the beasts themselves) and children would always have been asked their elders about the origins of those dragons. By the time of the Dance the origin of Grey Ghost (the youngest wild dragon) and Sheepstealer was apparently still known (at least to the maesters of this era) but if the Cannibal set himself up as a wild dragon during the reign of the Conqueror or even before the Conquest then nobody might have remembered that during the Dance.
  3. MIA Dragons Post DotD

    Actually, there is another option: The Cannibal might have been a descendant of the dragons the Valyrian dragonlords who originally raised the citadel of Dragonstone and took possession of the island brought with them. Those weren't Targaryens, after all. And the idea that the smallfolk had some special knowledge about events lying hundreds of years in the past around the time of the Dance does not make all that much sense. I mean, this guy Silver Denys got caught up in his delusion that he was a son of Maegor the Cruel when Maegor had major issues fathering living children and the man must have been about eighty years old to have a chance of being fathered by Maegor. If a dragon population survived for thousands of years on Dragonstone why the hell did nobody realize this? Westeros was pretty close and the Cannibal would have to eat other meat while there were no dragons around. Not to mention that Aenar and his descendants most likely would have dealt with the Cannibal had he been a threat to them and their descendants and their dragons upon their arrival.
  4. MIA Dragons Post DotD

    Blood and Fire or the The Death of the Dragons isn't the same book as Barth's Unnatural History. But Jaqen-Pate clearly would be after the former book if the hint in ADwD was supposed to point towards the Citadel plot. Yandel would cover the orthodox view in TWoIaF that dragons cannot change their sex. But that seems to be wrong.
  5. How did Varys convince jon connington that griff was Aegon?

    @Lost Melnibonean There is a certain chance that Tyrion might go to Braavos for some reason but little reason that Dany's army/navy would go there. If they did this they would risk losing a lot of ships to say the least. If the Faceless Men sent an assassin (Arya?) after Dany then things might be different, though. Although an attempt to sneak into the city or fly in there on dragonback to burn down the House of Black and White might be a smarter move. Dany should not be able to challenge the Sealord on his own ground. Jon Connington certainly loathes Varys for some reason but we have no reason to believe that this is because Varys sowed mistrust between Rhaegar and Aerys. It could be connected to stuff related to Connington's own dealings with Varys at court, say, how he got the impression that Varys didn't help him prevent his dismissal as Hand and subsequent exile, or something of this sort. If Connington hated Varys for putting Aerys and Rhaegar against each other there would be no way that Connington would believe even a word Varys was saying. Because any man actually doing that would also have had no possible reason to actually save Rhaegar's son. I think that is a main problem for the idea that Varys was putting Rhaegar and Aerys against each as well as for the idea that Rhaegar and his friends believed Varys was doing that (because then Connington would believe it, too). I'm with you that Varys/Illyrio must have some ace up there sleeve to prove or vouch for Aegon. But I don't think it is Ashara Dayne. And neither do I think he needs all that much to convince Doran Martell. We know Doran supposedly has a friend at court who feeds him information about plots as secret as Cersei's plan to murder Trystane on the way to KL Who do you think that source is? Who could have known that aside from Varys? Cersei was apparently only involving a very small amount of people in that, not her council and not Taena. Varys is the best answer, and if he is the source then Doran trusts him at least to a degree. That should make it not so difficult for Doran to be convinced Aegon is real. The plan wasn't to accept anybody's word. The plan (at least at a point) was to draw Dorne into a Targaryen restoration of some sort, either one involving Viserys/Drogo/Dany (with Aegon coming later or - for some strange reason that doesn't make much sense - join them) or with Aegon-Dany invading Westeros together with a bunch of dragons. Dorne would have not other choice but join them. And Varys might still see to it that Dorne joins the war. He could ensure they learn that Gregor Clegane yet lives, slapping Doran in the face yet again, not to mention that Lady Nym - assuming she ever gets to the capital - could easily enough suffer the same fate as Kevan and Pycelle in the Red Keep (this time with evidence implicating the Tyrells. Keep in mind that Varys and Illyrio have no clue about the secret marriage pact between Willem Darry and Oberyn Martell involving Viserys and Arianne. They have no clue that Doran intended to marry Dany to Quentyn. And it is this whole plan that makes Doran cautious right now. He wants to know whether Dany/Quentyn are involved in this whole thing or not. If he had had no plan of his own he most certainly would have been much more receptive to the Aegon invasion as an opportunity for revenge. And even more so if Aegon and Dany had shown up riding a bunch of dragons. If the Golden Company were as stupid as push that 'advantage' they would just find themselves crushed between the Dornishmen and the Tyrell army. There is actually a pretty good chance that even some pretender with a far-fetched origin story like Aegon can win the throne in the present political climate. Things are fucked up hard in Westeros and nobody likes the people in power nor expects them to be able to restore order and peace. A Targaryen prince looking the part should only be able to draw the many Targaryen loyalists to his banner (regardless how competent a commander he is) but also to serve as a figurehead/common denominator for everybody in the Realm who is unhappy with the present situation. Aegon could very well become the Jaehaerys I to the cacophony of little Maegors that are plaguing the Realm right now. If things suck people look back to the good old days for inspiration and the prospect that Rhaegar's little son might have returned (from the dead) should be able to make use of this. Even Viserys III should have been able to conquer the throne under the present circumstances. People would see only the Targaryen name and not really care about the man who bears the name, just as they usually do. A Targaryen is not a Blackfyre. Daemon III Blackfyre was apparently pretty much a joke. But Prince Aegon Targaryen has the chance to win support for his cause all across the Realm, and he certainly will do after he has declared himself. Even if he lost a few battles he could still keep his campaign as long as his army is not crushed and he is not captured or killed.
  6. R+L=J v.162

    Aerys could have had visions and prophetic dreams, sure, but we don't know anything about that yet. We'll have to wait and see whether we'll ever get a character or POV who was really close to him to tell us about such things. Connington, Jaime, and especially Selmy qualify as such so we'll have to wait and see. However, I think the Targaryen blood is really 'tainted' in a sense, 'dragonized' if you want to call it that, and it is pretty clear that a lot of the Targaryen mental issues as well as their problems conceiving healthy children is connected to that. There is no reason to believe that Aerys hated Rhaegar. In fact, we have one good hint that he liked and was proud of his son even later in life - when he happily cheered him on at Tourney of Lannisport in 276 AC, prior to the Duskendale. Considering that Aerys actually forbid Jaime to attend the Tourney of Harrenhal later on because he did not want to him win glory there one has to wonder why a jealous or spiteful Aerys would allow his 'hated son' to win a tourney. Not to mention that he would have had no reason to cheer him on - and most certainly no longer did when he began to suspect that he was plotting against him. There is also no reason to think that Aerys didn't like Rhaegar because he was bookish. Aerys himself wasn't a scholar or interested in stuff like that but neither was a he great warrior or very interested in the chivalric arts. He liked parties, dances, masquerades, and stuff in his youth. And he liked the women. There was no reason for him to not like a learned son or a son who excelled at everything he did. In fact, he would have had every reason to be proud of such a son. I don't think they were particularly close because they had different personalities - Aerys was lively and active while Rhaegar was always silent and melancholic. But that doesn't mean they did not spend time together while Rhaegar was young nor does it mean Aerys would not have loved his son as a father or Rhaegar his father as a son. Sure, at that time they would have interacted with each other. But we have no clue how long Lewyn was away from court leading those Dornishmen up to KL nor do we know when exactly his forces joined Rhaegar's. We don't even know whether Rhaegar spoke to his father after he talked to Lewyn, and if he only learned about the threats from him. Vice versa we also don't know whether Lewyn directly talked to Rhaegar or whether they used intermediaries. That would be somewhat odd but not necessarily impossible or unheard of. Well, Aerys certainly could have decided something like that. But it is one thing to tell your son 'I have to keep your (former?) wife and children here to protect my royal person against Dornish treason (thanks to your ridiculous Stark business)' and to actually tell your son that he'll burn his children alive should he not do as he says. Not to mention that we actually have no hint that Rhaegar ever tried to get Elia and the children away from Aerys. Perhaps he did not care? Aerys could have told him that Elia refused to see him or something of that sort. She might have been very hurt by the Lyanna affair, after all. Does he? I'm not so sure about that. And neither do we know what status Elia and the children still during the Rebellion. If Rhaegar did replace Elia with Lyanna then Aegon and Rhaenys might have lost their status as royal children and legitimate heirs just as Cersei's children presumably would have had Robert set aside her as she fears in AGoT (and Renly planned for him to do with his Margaery idea). It is not absurder than assume that Rhaegar would not immediately remove a threat to Aegon's life once he realizes that such a threat exists. The life of hostages usually is pretty safe, after all. But Aerys is not the kind of man who would blackmail somebody into service this way who could use his power to overthrow him. Jaime indicates that this kind of thing was quite common in Aerys' last day. It was particularly bad in the night Dany was conceived but there is no reason to assume Hightower never witnessed something like that or a milder version of it. The problem here is that we have to ask ourselves what the point of the new plot element of Aerys and his people thinking that Lyanna's coronation was evidence for a Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy was. That was a completely new element in TWoIaF. We already had Rhaegar being unhappy with the way his mad father did things and hints that he intended to do something about that (ASoS) and clues that Rhaegar was effectively plotting treason with Ser Oswell Whent (ADwD) which was then confirmed in TWoIaF. But what was the narrative point to introduce the Aerys-Rhaegar mistrust plot in the first place and why the hell did the Starks become part of all that in Aerys' mind at Harrenhal? I think this provides us with a major key to resolve most of the Lyanna-Rhaegar mystery around the abduction. If Aerys believed that Rhaegar crowning Lyanna was evidence for a Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy against him despite the fact the Starks were visibly unhappy about that then the logical endpoint of that development is that Aerys is also likely to believe that Brandon threatening Rhaegar is also part of this show/mummer's farce Rhaegar and his buddies are playing. The idea that Aerys would come to defense of his ingrate son shortly after he has realized that Rhaegar was actually plotting with Rickard Stark against makes absolutely no sense. If the coronation was 'evidence' for a Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy then 'Lyanna's abduction' (or her marriage to Rhaegar) would be evidence for such a conspiracy, too, regardless what Brandon or Rickard said to the contrary. There is no hint Aerys ever felt threatened by the Stark-Tully marriage nor the Stark-Baratheon marriage. But that's not the impression we get from Yandel. He tells us Aerys saw the coronation as evidence for a conspiracy, not the other stuff. And he thinks people were conspiring with Rhaegar against him, the king, not against the royal dynasty. Lets just say I don't think the man thinks much. The way he described as being seen by the men at Harrenhal suggests he was very far gone and clearly incapable of coherent thought often enough. People capable of rational decisions don't go from mad laughter to weeping for no reason in a number of seconds. Aerys' paranoia was fueled by fear and if you are constantly afraid you don't think rationally even if you no other mental issues. His main problem clearly was that he was unable to differentiate real/dangerous threats from imagined/harmless threats. There is actually no hint that Varys pushed Aerys against Aerys. Yandel gives us the names of the lords at court who wanted Aerys to disinherit Rhaegar and replace him with Rhaegar and it was not Varys. And we also know that those lords who profited from the king's generosity (Merryweather, Staunton, Velaryon, Chelsted) would be his friends in Aerys' mind. The man most likely would not grant huge wealth to men he did not see as friends. One should include the fact that Rhaegar was Aerys' only son for a very long time in this whole thing as well as the whole prophecy angle. The prophecy of the promised prince shaped Aerys and Rhaella's life as much as it did shape Rhaegar's (perhaps even more), and I'm pretty sure the pressure to fulfill prophecy was putting more stress on Aerys' health and sanity than the dynastic problem. He had Rhaegar and with Steffon and his sons there were close cousins at hand who could take the throne should something happen to Rhaegar. But if Rhaegar was the promised prince (and it is pretty obvious that both Aerys and Rhaella must have believed that, too, if Rhaegar and Aemon did) then it fell to Aerys and Rhaella to produce the other dragon heads as well. Whatever issues Aerys later had with Rhaegar on the political field I'm pretty sure it will turn out that he never actually moved against Rhaegar despite his suspicions because he still thought his son was the prophesied savior of mankind and House Targaryen. The idea that the Mad King wasn't at heart of the prophecy business doesn't make much sense in the wake of the news about the Ghost's prophecy from ADwD. Well, Aerys was apparently mistreating his sister-wife for quite some time. He was burning people for years in 283 AC, so he would have done something like that before. Rhaegar never intervened there, nor would he have had any right to do so, I'm afraid. The king can do whatever he wants with his wife. We also don't really know whether Rhaella and Rhaegar were ever close. They could have been. Or not. Rhaegar's sense of duty (until the Lyanna thing) could be something his mother instilled in him. If so, she should have been massively disappointed by the Lyanna affair.
  7. Prince Daemon has some good traits and he certainly supported the right side but I don't like him all that much. He is way too overconfident and fickle for my taste, especially in his youth. I think he is much more in Aerion and Maegor territory for my taste, not to mention that his inability to participate in the formal government (Master of Laws, Master of Coin), to keep his 'kingdom' together or stay true to his royal wife make him resemble Aerys II more than anybody else (the man was at least as changeable as Daemon). I also don't think his martial abilities change the fact that he was petty and cruel (whipping a servant boy bloody just because he brought him bad news just isn't very nice or likable) and actually behaving like a gold digger by first trying to woo/seduce/marry Rhaenyra and then later Laena Velaryon (and she lived until the death of Viserys I Daemon would have used her as a figurehead to rise against either Rhaenyra or Aegon II or both considering that she was the rider of Vhagar and the eldest child of Princess Rhaenys). Discarding Rhaenyra for some younger cunt also is a deplorable move. The fact that history considers him to be a main candidate behind the murder of Laenor Velaryon and the fire that killed Harwin and Lyonel Strong also makes things pretty worse. If he did any of that he must have been a pretty fucked up guy. The one thing where I think he is less to blame is the Blood and Cheese incident because he was neither in KL nor nearby to actually oversee the whole thing. Mysaria was in charge of all that. And I very much doubt Daemon gave orders to target Aegon's children. It just happened that they could get to them much easier. Daemon himself may have meant one of Alicent's sons in his letter to Rhaenyra, not Aegon's irrelevant children. Taking out Aemond would have been a huge success (but he may have been still out of the city at this point) and TPatQ suggests that the original target may have been Aegon II but Blood and Cheese could not get inside Maegor's nor catch him outside without the Kingsguard being present. Thus things narrowed down to a son of Aegon II. And the fact that they did not kill Alicent, Helaena, Jaehaera, Maelor, and even Otto makes little sense from a Black perspective. If Daemon had known they could remove all those people then he certainly would have commanded to do so. Letting the others live didn't make any sense. In general I think the Blacks had every right to retaliate the way they did after the coldblooded murder of Lucerys Velaryon. In fact, they had to to prevent to appear weak in the eyes of the Realm. If the Greens can slay Rhaenyra's sons with impunity then many lords might have reconsidered their allegiances and declared for Aegon II. Don't think so. I think there is a pretty good case to be made that Unwin Peake only dared to move against Jaehaera after he had become Hand (in the wake of Ser Tyland's death) and after the Queen Dowager was dead, too. Both succumbed to the Winter Fever in the same year as Jaehaera was killed, and it is also pretty likely that Peake also was able to put his cronies into the Kingsguard and other high positions in the wake of the casualties this plague caused in the capital. Prior to that he would not have been able to murder the queen with impunity. But then, Jaehaera definitely was a dead end. All Alicent could hope for was lackwit great-grandchildren. And even she must have known that this marriage would never be consummated.
  8. Vhagar or Meraxes

    We don't have a reason to assume that older dragons (and Vhagar definitely was older than Meraxes when she died, even if Meraxes hatched immediately after Aenar arrived on Dragonstone) are necessarily bigger than younger dragons. It seems as if dragons grow all their life but how quickly they grow might depend on a number of other factors - the quality of food, for instance, or genetic predisposition. Then there is this talk that being trapped inside might hamper a dragon's growth. Both Balerion and especially Vhagar would have spend at least some time in the Dragonpit after Maegor had finished it (Vhagar was definitely housed there while he was ridden by Aemond, but she would might have had a freer life while she was ridden by Laena on Driftmark). While Balerion was ridden by Prince Viserys there is a reasonably good chance that he was housed in the Dragonpit, too, considering that his father was not yet Prince of Dragonstone for most of that time. Anyway, Meraxes never spend a day in the Dragonpit and she was apparently also ridden very often by Rhaenys (and possibly by previous riders, too). Who knows? Perhaps she lived a happy life full of fun and adventures and thus grew much more quickly than the other dragons? You have to keep in mind that Rhaenyra's dragons on Dragonstone don't seem to have grown all that quickly despite the fact that they seem to have been kept mostly out in the open. Vermax, Arrax, and Tyraxes seem scarcely bigger than Dany's dragons are right now (I think all of them are somewhat bigger than Drogon is in ADwD because they all can carry Rhaenyra's strong lads who seem to resemble grown-up men much more than adolescent youths, and Drogon had trouble to take wing with slender Dany on his back) yet it is quite clear that those dragons are at least a couple of years old. They might even be as old as a decade considering how young the Targaryen children usually are when their dragon eggs hatch or they receive living hatchlings. Syrax was claimed by Rhaenyra in 104 AC, and she was a young dragon at that time, making it quite likely she hatched from a dragon egg given to Rhaenyra. That could suggests she was about thirty years old when she died (Rhaenyra was 33). Sunfyre would be about as old Aegon II, making him about twenty years upon his death. Yet if we assumed every dragon grows as quickly as Dany's dragons are growing right now both the dragons of Rhaenyra's sons as well as Sunfyre and Syrax should have reached the size of Vermithor or even Vhagar by the time of their deaths. But this is clearly not the case. Thus we should be very cautious when equating size and age of a dragon. A dragon can be pretty old without being particularly huge and can possibly also grow to monstrous sizes just in a couple of years.
  9. Varys Did Not Intend for Tyrion to Kill Tywin

    That is true. However, Tyrion wasn't that much hated in Westeros while he was Hand Only in KL. But the murders definitely would have ruined his reputation permanently. I really don't know. I thought Tyrion would meet and befriend Dany in ADwD as pretty much everybody else thought. But that didn't happen, and there is most likely a narrative reason as to why Tyrion never met and talked to Dany prior to her departure. And the Dany that's going to return from the Dothraki Sea will be a dragonrider and not exactly in a forgiving mood. Not to mention that Tyrion as George described him in ADwD was neither in the position nor in the mood to ever win Dany's trust and friendship. We also don't know how long it takes until Dany returns or whether Tyrion and her other people (or some of them) will be still there, waiting for her. That will depend on how the story unfolds after the battle(s). I expect Tyrion to become a dragonrider soon and I think that will coincide with the revelation (through Selmy) that Tyrion is Dany's bastard half-brother. That will mark the beginning of a new life for Tyrion as he reinvents himself as a Targaryen or at least as a Targaryen bastard. He might be happier with himself and his lot in life and actually begin to be invested in the Targaryen cause. ADwD indicates that he has a pretty good picture of Dany's character but it is completely unclear whether he wants to ally with her or try to use her for his own ends (whatever those might be). His suggestion to Aegon to go to Westeros now was presumably part of his plan to hurt Cersei and Jaime now that they are weak. Then there is George's curious quote that Tyrion and Dany's stories will eventually intersect. That doesn't suggests that they are going to meet each other soon. If the Ironborn successfully steal a dragon and/or Tyrion becomes a dragonrider then quite a lot of Dany's people might reconsider their loyalty and decide to throw their lot in with those other magical guys, possibly leaving Slaver's Bay before she returns. And if Selmy proclaims Tyrion Dany's half-brother the dwarf might find himself in a position where he could claim the Iron Throne of Westeros himself. You have to keep in mind that the longer she doesn't return or does not send word to Meereen that she is alive the more people will believe she actually died or will never return. But in the end I think Dany and Tyrion will join forces. But whether that's going to be on friendly terms or because they are forced to is unclear. However, I'm pretty sure that Tyrion Lannister is not going to be able to amass any power among Dany's people. Tyrion Dragonrider might. And Tyrion Halfdragon most definitely.
  10. Varys Did Not Intend for Tyrion to Kill Tywin

    That story has traveled with him. And if he (or Jorah) did not tell her what he did she would just execute him for a Lannister spy. What else should she think of him if she does not know he has turned against his own family? That he wants to join her cause for no good reason? The hint we get in Dany's last chapter is that she now enters into her no-nonsense approach to politics. The time she is going to see the best in everyone will be over. Or she smiles, welcomes them, and has them treated like Ulf and Hugh as soon as Viserion is out of sight. And she should be both smarter and less craven than the Caltrops. Or she proceeds to deal with Ben/Viserion the same way Maegor the Cruel dealt with Aegon and Quicksilver. But then, I don't think Ben will ever rider a dragon. He is too craven for that.
  11. R+L=J v.162

    @Lost Melnibonean Nice find. But George does not have to tell us in multiple unconnected quotes that a bed of blood is connected to the birth of a child. We figured that out all by ourselves just with the mentioning of the thing in connection to Lyanna. It certainly isn't impossible to have Lyanna die of a miscarriage or stillbirth but it is exceedingly unlikely that this was not supposed to be a pretty big hint that she was pregnant. However, there is uncertainty about what the bed of blood means. In a more literal sense it could mean she gave birth right around the time of Ned's arrival with the cry of hers Ned remembers from her dream marking the beginning of the birth caused by the stress of the men fighting. Then something would have gone really wrong during the birth and Lyanna might have died very quickly from complications after the birth. The other take is the puerperal fever thing which allows some days or even weeks to pass between birth and death. Considering that I think that Tyrion, Dany, and Jon are not only connected by their Targaryen heritage but also by the fact that their mothers died in childbirth I'm leaning more to Lyanna dying a quick death shortly after the birth. Joanna seems to have not survived Tyrion for long, either, and Rhaella also perished either during or shortly after Dany's birth. It is not very likely that Lyanna died as slowly as Laena Velaryon (who survived the birth of her stillborn Prince Baelon for three days) or even Jeyne Marbrand Lannister (who seems to have died weeks or even months after the birth of Gerion).
  12. Varys Did Not Intend for Tyrion to Kill Tywin

    Sure, there is a chance of that happening. But considering that Tyrion is right now just some lonely dwarf making common cause with some traitors (Mormont and Brown Ben) it is not very likely that he'll be accepted in the inner circle of the queen. She might thank him for murdering Tywin and Joffrey but she is not obliged to trust him because he did something like that. And honestly, Dany has no need of the Second Sons. She will have the Dothraki when she returns to Slaver's Bay and then it won't matter whether she has a few thousand sellswords more or less. Not to mention that the chances are pretty good that she would just execute Brown Ben. She will be able to do so and from her perspective the man deserves to die. But we don't even know when Dany will return to Slaver's Bay. The Second Sons and Tyrion might be in completely different situation at that point. It might no longer matter that Tyrion has convinced the Second Sons to turn against the Yunkish allies. My take on the whole thing that there has to be some connection between Tyrion and Dany that allows them to actual bond or connect to each other. 'Plot convenience' isn't enough for them to work together. Especially not in light of the fact that George did not only postpone the meeting between Dany and Tyrion but also deliberately write the story in a way in which Tyrion won't meet Dany in a position of strength. If he had showed up in Meereen with Aegon and the Golden Company she wouldn't have been in a position to easily reject him/them. Right now it doesn't look as if Tyrion will end up in a position of strength. Especially not with all those Ghiscari/Essosi people who have basically no reason to care what an ugly dwarf has to say.
  13. Varys Did Not Intend for Tyrion to Kill Tywin

    Aerys wasn't that popular either, yet people still don't applaud or cherish his murderer. Joffrey was still a child and only the people closest to him knew his true nature. For the majority of Westeros he'll be the innocent victim of his evil uncle. Not to mention that the boy was his nephew. Neither Roose nor Walder or Theon ever murdered such close kin yet they are hated and despised, too. And Tyrion adds to all this by murdering his own father. Who can trust a man who is twisted enough to kill his own father? This adds another layer to the whole thing. There is no reason whatsoever that Daenerys Targaryen should trust this ugly man. He does neither look trustworthy (and looks are important) nor do his actions suggests that he is trustworthy person.
  14. R+L=J v.162

    @SFDanny Until such time as we learn that Aerys actually threatened the lives of Elia, Aegon, and Rhaenys to keep Rhaegar in line I'm not going to buy that this was the case. But I'm with you and Rhaenys that the threats he made to Lewyn and Doran definitely would have angered and irritated Rhaegar. But then - there is no hint that they were made while Rhaegar nor do we know if/when he was told about this. The chances that Lewyn and Elia spoke much/at all with Rhaegar after his return (unless they had to) are not very good. He can do whatever he wants, he is the king, and he is way beyond the need of having to be 'coherent'. Aerys might actually believe he is doing himself and Rhaegar a favor by blackmailing Lewyn/Doran. After all, we don't yet know the full picture of the split between the Targaryens/Rhaegar and the Martells at this point. Perhaps Doran had no inclination whatsoever to have Dornishmen defend the Targaryens or fight alongside Prince Rhaegar after the Lyanna affair? Until such time as the king threatened his sister and her children. But this doesn't mean Aerys did or had to use the same methods to keep Rhaegar in line. Something like that could have happened. Hightower must have switched to Rhaegar's side else he would have never stayed at the tower regardless what Rhaegar's authority level was. But it doesn't have to be a threat like that, it could have just been the state of mind the king was in and the whole burning and mistreating of the queen thing. That Darry and Hightower tried to prevent Jaime from doing something stupid (like attacking the king, intervening when he was mistreating Rhaella, deserting, etc.) doesn't mean they did not share his thoughts or did enjoy watching Aerys commit atrocities. This would be 'an argument from the gap', so to speak. Aerys defending Rhaegar's honor when Brandon threatened him made sense up until the point we learned that Aerys should actually have been pretty happy if somebody resolved the Rhaegar problem for him. An Aerys believing Rhaegar was plotting against him wouldn't have a had a huge problem with Rhaegar dying in a duel or something of that sort. Besides, we never learned that it was Brandon's threat to Rhaegar that got him killed. We just inferred that from the way the story was told. And I see no reason why one guy threatening Rhaegar should lead to a trial against Rickard and a lot of other guys who weren't even with Brandon when he made his threat. George introduced the whole idea of Aerys and his cronies interpreting the events at Harrenhal as a conspiracy of Rhaegar and the Starks for a reason. With that in mind it makes little sense to assume that Aerys would believe Brandon's claim that Rhaegar had abducted Lyanna against the wishes (and without the knowledge) of Lord Rickard. He also didn't believe that the Starks were actually angry when Rhaegar crowned Lyanna at Harrenhal. Thus I think Aerys accused Brandon, Rickard, Brandon's companions, and their friends and family of conspiring with Rhaegar against him. That was what led to the trials and executions and to the command to kill Ned and Robert. Aerys would never have gone so far to protect his ingrate son. If any of this is true then Rhaegar himself must have been the main suspect of the whole thing. And he was only not burned at Rickard's side because he and Lyanna got away in time. The reason why I think we have yet to learn this story is that it might be intricately connected to the Lyanna-Rhaegar abduction story and its immediate aftermath. And if that involves a marriage or the announcement of a marriage then it is quite clear while George is still keeping those things in the dark. My guess is that Aerys and the court already had word of the marriage by the time Brandon arrived. Thinking about that: Perhaps Ethan Glover lived because he gave in to torture and actually confirmed all the accusations Aerys laid at the feet of Rickard and Brandon? That certainly would be a much better explanation than merely 'Aerys forgot to burn him' or something like that. Well, it depends. Even saner Aerys isn't described as a very intelligent man. He is so full of himself that it takes him quite a while to figure out that a lot of people think his Hand is actually much more competent and smarter than he is. In addition, he was always changeable. His many mistresses attest to that as well as all those grand plans that are forgotten a fortnight later. And I actually don't think he is a sadist. I think both his fascination with fire and the treatment of Rhaella are symptoms of his very special dragonlord blood sickness. Watching fire and people burn resonated with a part of the dragon blood in him and I don't think he knew what he was doing when he visited Rhaella's bedchamber thereafter. The way Jaime is describing it suggests he might have thought he was a dragon in the flesh at those times, and I don't think that was an erotic game of sorts. It was part of his mental illness. Does he really see that? I'm wondering. Did Viserys I realize that there were any Blacks and Greens at his court? What Aerys would have seen was that there were traitors out to get him (Rhaegar and the men around him) and loyal men defending his royal person and crown. But the fact that Aerys never moved against his son until the Lyanna affair suggests to me that he himself never truly believed his son was out to get him. Else he would have had him executed. We have to wait and see how and why Connington became Hand. He might tell us himself. However, there is little reason to assume that 'the Rhaegar faction' at court was still in existence at this point. Dorne clearly no longer would have been friends with Rhaegar, and a lot of other men might have been appalled by the Lyanna thing, too, regardless whether they knew of a second marriage or not. Abducting the daughter of a high lord isn't something you do. Sorry, but that is just an assertion. You don't know what would have been possible without Rhaegar nor do you know that Aerys brought him back because if the reasons you give. Yeah, if we go with Rhaegar being threatened into service by his father then the two would have been mortal enemies at this point. And there is no indication for that. Jaime's memories of his last conversation with Rhaegar don't give a hint that the man was hating or even fearing his father. If Aerys had threatened the life of Elia and the children don't you think Rhaegar would have begged Jaime to protect them with his life? I think Aerys thought that Elia's traitorous line (remember, Lewyn betrayed Rhaegar at the Trident in Aerys' mind) did not deserve to live if Robert took the city. However, Aerys only gave the command to burn the city down during the Sack. That was a last resort, not something he wanted to do with all his heart. Keeping Elia and the children close was most likely an attempt of his to protect himself against Dornish retribution or perhaps he hoped to force Doran to come up with more men to defend his capital. Yeah, but we don't yet know why Rhaegar ran away and hid. There has to be a reason for this, a reason we don't yet know. And this reason could very well include a change in his status as a royal prince. In fact, if Rhaegar was attainted as a traitor to the Crown this could also explain why the garrison of Dragonstone did not defend Elia and the children when Aerys' men came to fetch her (assuming they did that). There is small chance that Rhaegar's people would have stood up to Aerys after learning what Rhaegar did and how Aerys had punished him. That just isn't the same. Could be. But then, wouldn't have Aerys still had Elia and the children in his power after Rhaegar's victory. Whatever lofty plans Rhaegar had for his council after the Trident wouldn't have saved his wife and children from Aerys' wrath. And if we take prophecy into account the life of the promised prince (i.e. Aegon) would have been much more important than ending the threat of the rebels. In that sense I really don't see a good reason why Rhaegar would prolong the threat to Aegon's life by taking on Robert first. His father was the main threat to the life of the boy if he made a real threat, not Robert or the other rebels.
  15. Varys Did Not Intend for Tyrion to Kill Tywin

    But Aegon doesn't need such knowledge while he is still in Essos. And back in Westeros Tyrion will become a liability.