Lord Varys

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Everything posted by Lord Varys

  1. Harry & Sansa (Littlefinger is delusional)

    Those are the passages I'm referring to. Sansa's fear is quite real, and I'm pretty sure she is not eager to be unmasked and be made Lady of the Vale and declared Lady of Winterfell while there is a still a strong chance that her enemies might catch up with her. But if she gets instead an opportunity to strike back at them she is likely to take it. The Vale's power should get stronger and stronger while the other regions bleed each other but the Vale alone will be never enough (and the Riverlands and North won't be any help to take the Iron Throne/destroy the Lannisters, not in their present state and not in winter). In addition, it is quite clear that the Lords of the Vale are much more pragmatic than principled. They did not defy Lysa during the War of the Five Kings, they stayed at home and let Robb and Catelyn die. The fact that many of those noble Vale houses are impoverished (Corbray, Waynwood) should make it very tempting for some of those people to sell Sansa to Cersei/the Lannisters, regardless whether they have a decent chance to beat them in battle or not. The Lannisters have gold, and Cersei/King Tommen are likely to pay more than a fortune for Sansa Stark's head. Sansa is very aware of all that. It is just another angle as to why teaming up with Aegon should look as a very promising opportunity for Sansa and Littlefinger both. They can use him to get rid of both Cersei and the Tyrells, covering their own tracks for good. I'm actually hoping Joff's murder is going to be back on the table soon. Varys' next move after killing Pycelle and Kevan should be to hand Cersei very good and real evidence that the Tyrells actually were the ones who killed Joffrey. She does not think that as of yet, but if she was ever helped to reach that conclusion she will see red. That kind of thing is what's likely going to drive her off the edge to make her a powerful force of destruction at Euron's side. If she ever realizes that Olenna poisoned her beloved son so that she could marry her granddaughter to her younger son to steal him away from her, too, she is going to want to see the Reach burn.
  2. Let's speculate about the future roles of Willas and Garlan

    Not if the Florents are attainted which they were. And if only Alester were then the title should have gone to Alekyne Florent, Alester's son who was, as far as we know, did not declare for Stannis. For all we know Tarly is perfectly fine with Mace securing the Brightwater for Garlan. They might even have talked about this before and Mace might have ensured that Tarly got exactly what he wanted out of that council session. They set prizes aside for him, after all. There is something like personal achievements and heroics/leadership qualities in battle, to be sure. What is less clear is if Mace is doing something dishonorable or wrong by claiming he defeated Robert. It was his army, after all. Now, Mace certainly makes somewhat of a fool of himself by stressing the fact he won at Ashford again and again since he was not actually personally there. But people also know that Tarly did the actual work so nobody is misrepresenting or misunderstanding things. Sure, it was his army. The Reach forces fighting for the Targaryens during the Rebellion who later also besieged Storm's End were under the command of Mace Tyrells (and the naval forces under the command of Paxter Redwyne). It is explicitly mentioned that Tarly merely commander Mace's vanguard. Whenever the commander of a vanguard, rearguard, or whatever subsection of an army wins a battle for some reason the battle itself was still won by its supreme commander. If Robb's vanguard under the Blackfish won a victory of an enemy army the victory would still belong to Robb as the supreme commander (and king) of said army. Nope, there is no hint for that. Owen Merryweather encouraged the Stormlords who tried to defeat Robert at Summerhall to turn against their lord but nothing indicates he was ever participating in anything. Perhaps he also wrote to Mace Tyrell. But perhaps Aerys II himself did, or Mace decided to do something on his own. He is the Warden of South, after all. In any case, we definitely know that Mace was the supreme commander on the field of an army of Reach men, his own bannermen, vassals, sworn swords, and levies. It is clear that he has the right to claim a victory, and not one of his lieutenants. That doesn't mean that that lieutenant cannot be a much better commander than he is but it doesn't change the fact that the really powerful people can claim the victory and the glory. This is not an egalitarian society. Only if we assume he considers to have any claim to Brightwater through his wife. Which I kind of doubt. Else the man would have sided with Stannis. Perhaps Eleanor is just a good match for Dickon? Lord William Mooton has sons of his own. Once Tarly has left Maidenpool for good (which actually seems to be the case) he is not going to control anything up there. That is the case for any lord. It does not indicate that Tarly wants to betray his liege lord or defect to a doomed pretender like Aegon. Tarly knows how competent a commander he is. He has the numerical advantage, especially if he led the majority of the Reach men in KL (30,000-40,000 men) against Aegon. He should be more than confident that he can crush the Golden Company and whatever allies they have gathered by the time he does. And when he does that he can continue to acquire even more power at the court of the puppet king Tommen. His path to ultimate power goes through Tommen, not Aegon. For Aegon he would just be another turncloak who would have to earn his trust. Aegon has the Golden Company officers to reward once he becomes king, not throw titles and lands at already wealthy and powerful Reach lords. Arianne is not stupid but what should she do when the news about Dany's marriage to Hizdahr, her alleged death, and the story about Quentyn's rejection and demise arrive? Hope that Dany is not death and will come to Westeros in ten years or so? By then things will be settled in Westeros. And she and Dorne want to avenge Elia, Rhaenys, and Oberyn. The path to all that will be Aegon, never mind whether he is the real deal or not. She could even decided that she doesn't believe the story at all only to use him for her own ends - revenge. Doran was stupid enough to leave the decision of peace or war to her. And once she sends a raven to the armies in the mountains there is no turning back. Once Dorne joins the war they have to stick to Aegon or lose. He doesn't have to lie. He thinks Dany the bitch-queen is responsible for Quentyn's death. Just reread his last conversations with Barristan. The idea that there are Dornish armies waiting in the passes of the Red Mountains for another, well, year or so, doing nothing doesn't make a lot of sense. By the time Dany finally arrives Dorne would have to raise new armies because we already know that the armies in the mountains are dispersing. They have to attack soon or not at all because the men have gone back home. Sure, but that's not a symbol. Especially not in light of the fact that the Yronwoods joined the Blackfyres three times. This time they might pick Daenerys while the Martells go with the other guy. As to Oldtown: The Hightower fleet seems to intend to participate in the Redwyne attempt to defeat Euron, but Euron does not intend to attack Oldtown here, he goes out to meet Paxter in battle, not the Hightowers. Once he has defeated the Redwynes he could also try to take Oldtown but this will be no easy thing. There are tens of thousands of people in Oldtown, and even if the Ironborn somebody got into the harbor and eventually controlled it that's not the same as taking the entire city. Euron could also not hope to keep Oldtown. If he wants something from there he should send an agent (say, his Faceless Man) into the city to take it for him. And perhaps he already did that, although then Jaqen would have to be another Faceless Man he controls (I doubt that this is the case, though). The Arbor should be much easier to take and Euron should be able to capture more than enough wealth there to continue to finance his campaign. Taking the defenseless island should work with minimal losses while capturing/raiding Oldtown could easily enough be a Pyrrhic victory. If he loses, say, 5,000 or more men in the battle his Ironborn might no longer be all that keen to keep him as their king. Or he might lack the strength to take what he actually wants - the Iron Throne. Even the battle against the Redwynes is likely to have some casualties on Euron's side. He should lose some ships and their crews, and so on.
  3. Let's speculate about the future roles of Willas and Garlan

    There are tales and ideas but not actual motivations based on anything Tarly says or does. That is actual a misconstruction of things. Mace did win that battle, not Tarly. Tarly was one of the commanders, but Mace was the general of the army. If I'm the general of an army any victory that army wins is my victory. And thus Mace and not Tarly defeated Robert at Ashford. Mace does not have to be on the battlefield to do that. That is even more true in monarchy. The Battle of the Blackwater was not won by Tyrion, Tywin, Mace, Garlan, Littlefinger, or any of the other nobles. It was won by King Joffrey. Because the Lannister and the Tyrell men on the field were fighting in his name. Just as the Tyrell men at Ashford were fighting in the name of Mace Tyrell (and Aerys II) name. Tarly can be mildly annoyed that Mace is bragging about his victory but this is not humiliating him. He knows what he has done, and as of yet Mace always seem to have rewarded him properly for his service. What you seem to overlook in this discussion is that Tarly rose to a position of nearly absolute power as Master of Laws and military mind of Mace Tyrell. Serving as the de facto regent behind the little puppet king Tommen should give Tarly much more opportunity to acquire power and wealth for himself and his family than throwing all that away to support a (most likely fake) Targaryen pretender. Nothing indicates that Tarly wanted Brightwater for himself. The man turned against his wife's kin when he put down those Florent men. Tarly has made it pretty clear that he despises Mooton. I doubt anything important comes from that marriage thing. I don't see how Arianne could identify Aegon as a fake. She has never seen him. Arianne is not only going to join Aegon. She will soon dominate and control his entire movement. If she can seduce him and make him love her she will become the true power behind the Iron Throne. And that's what she seems to want. Nope, Gerris already hates Daenerys. If he ever gets back to Dorne he will confirm all Arianne's worst fears about Daenerys. But it is not just the fact that Quentyn died or how he died, it is also that Dany spurned Quentyn. That means the Martells are no longer honor-bound to actually try to work with Dany. The marriage contract Darry and Oberyn made is now officially dead. Dany cannot expect to get any help from Dorne now. So what? Dorne resisted the dragons before. And the Blackfyres are irrelevant to all this. There are two Targaryen pretenders, no Blackfyres. The Ironborn are with Euron. He only left a token force to die on the Shield Islands. And right now he is not targeting Oldtown. He is targeting the Arbor and the Redwyne fleet.
  4. Small Questions v. 10105

    I think I already mentioned once that Maegor's first tutor at arms was the new master-at-arms on Dragonstone, chosen by Visenya. He was a Corbray, 'as deadly a knight as could be found in all the Seven Kingdoms'. His given name is not clear. It may be Gawen, like the Grand Maester, but that's just a guess. Maegor was also always at his mother's side when she held court on Dragonstone (and presumably also at KL when/if she was there in Aegon's absence), indicating that Maegor was just as much Visenya's heir from the start as Aenys was Aegon's. What I can talk a little bit about and what people seem to have gained a sort of twisted view on is the relationship between the Targaryens and the Faith. People seem to think it was more or less all fine between the Faith and the Targaryens during the reign of the Conqueror, and that he should have been harder on them and perhaps even resolved the simmering issue. But in fact the Targaryens seem to have been lucky that they got through with their conquest thing in the first place. Gyldayn gives a small excursion on the aftermath of the Conquest and how a majority of the Most Devout actually expected the High Septon to speak against the Targaryens during the Conquest and resist them when they were approaching Oldtown. It came somewhat as a surprise that the High Septon saw the light, so to speak, and convinced Lord Manfred Hightower to open the gates and do Aegon homage as his king. Many of the Most Devout were 'most displeased' at that turn of events. The key sentence there is that these people believed that 'familiarity is the father of acceptance'. The contested issue was, of course, the fact that Aegon had taken both his sisters to wife. The Faith's doctrines condemn both incest (defined as sexual intercourse between father and daughter, mother and son, and brother and sister) and polygamy and this was a problem from the very beginning. The High Septon who had crowned, anointed, and blessed the Conqueror in Oldtown died in 11 AC, and by that time the Realm had indeed begun to get accustomed to the Aegon and his queen(s). Aegon really continued to suck up to the Faith, confirming all their privileges, exempting them from taxation, and affirming their traditional right to be tried only by a court of their own peers. There were six High Septons from the Conquest to the time of Aegon's death, and while Aegon honored them all it is said that the question of incestuous marriage simmered behind the courtesies like poison. These people did not like each other. And while the High Septons during Aegon's reign did not speak out against Aegon's incestuous marriages they also did never declare them lawful. It was basically the elephant in the room nobody mentioned. But the doctrines and teachings never changed. And the humbler members of the Faith continued to preach that it was sinful when a brother slept with his sister or a man took two wives. I think that is an important thing people should consider when discussing the whole matter of the Faith Militant Uprising. The establishment of the Faith - the Most Devout, the Faith Militant, and the more radical humbler members - basically hated and despised the Targaryen abominations from the start. The Conqueror could keep them quiet but only on their terms, which were that the abominable Valyrian ways would not continue. When that fell through first with Maegor insisting that as scion of 'the blood of the dragon' he stood about the scriptures of the Faith which only ruled 'lesser men', and could do whatever the hell he wanted just as his royal father had, and then with Aenys I deciding to marry Rhaena to Aegon things really exploded. The Targaryens were lucky that the sons of the Dragon did indeed not have any sisters to marry. Had Aegon had any daughters things would have exploded much sooner because it is very obvious that they would have married a daughter of Visenya to Aenys and/or a daughter of Rhaenys to Maegor to prevent the kind of succession they later had during Maegor's reign.
  5. Targaryen Morality

    The Targaryens are little better or worse than the other noble and royal houses. But their good apples were certainly much more progressive than the average lord or previous king.
  6. What is the "power in king's blood"?

    They did? Who are those? I don't know any such Targaryens, actually. The only that might qualify as such would be Aegon V, and I'm pretty sure he had no intention to burn himself at Summerhall. The Lothstons were actually a secret Targaryen cadet branch, it seems, so I don't see what you are talking about there. The Hoares were destroyed back during the Conquest and if Harren the Red was a bastard of Harren the Black he, too, was put down in 37 AC.
  7. Let's speculate about the future roles of Willas and Garlan

    You certainly can. And I'm pretty sure that the North will continue to drown and freeze in blood in the foreseeable future. First thanks to Roose, Stannis, Jon, the wildlings, and the Night's Watch. And then because the Others and the wights are going to come. The idea that the guys up there are better off than the people down in the South where winter usually is much milder (and thus likely to not get as worse as quickly as it will in the North) and things are not as fucked up as they are in the North doesn't make a lot of sense. We know how bad things are in the North already, and they are not going to get better now that winter has come. But how bad things will be in the Reach are right now just baseless speculation. We don't know what George has in store for the people down there. Things could get worse in the Stormlands, the Reach, Dorne, the Vale, and the West. But they could also not get all that worse. But we know for a certainty that people will starve and freeze to death by the thousands in the Riverlands and the North because of the destructions those regions suffered during the wars. Especially the lack and destruction of the last harvest and other provisions will prove to be fatal for many people there. Tarly and/or Mace might end up on Aegon's side eventually (if their army is defeated in battle and they have to reconsider their options) but Tarly does not strike me as the kind of guy who defects to another side. He put down many Florent men who wanted to join Stannis, knowing fully well that Renly's claim was worth nothing compared to Stannis' and also having learned that Cersei's children allegedly aren't Robert's. The man doesn't give a shit about 'the rightful king'. What should be his motivation to join Aegon? And Targaryen looks or not, I can't see Tarly being willing to join a pretender who could very well be just an impostor whelped by some whore. If Viserys III or Daenerys showed up he might be willing to consider their claims but Prince Aegon the son of Rhaegar is dead. End of story. There are still Targaryen loyalists in the Reach (Mathis Rowan is one of them) but nothing indicates that Tarly gives a shit about the Targaryens. They are right now occupied with the Ironborn already. And those lords and knights whose lands are threatened by Euron's raiders are not likely to turn against the very Tyrells who actually lead the men of the Reach against the Ironborn enemy. That would be as likely as half of the Riverlords just deciding to turn against Edmure and Robb and declaring for King Stannis while Tywin and his Lannister armies are burning and raiding the Riverlands. You don't do that kind of thing. What the men Mace and Tarly in KL do in relation to Aegon or Tommen is not likely to interest the men in the Reach all that much. They have to fight off invaders, and they can only do that if they are working together. That is very unlikely. Dorne will never join Daenerys now that Quentyn has been killed by one of her dragons. Even if they are not teaming up with Aegon for some reason (very unlikely) both Doran and Arianne would not bestir themselves for Daenerys, a woman who rejected Quentyn as her consort. Garlan isn't in Oldtown and has no intention of going there. The Hightowers have to see to their own defenses, and they are powerful enough to do that. Garlan (and possibly Willas, too) have gone down the Mander, preparing to retake the Shields. And that's going to work since Euron has made it pretty clear that he doesn't give a shit about those islands. The new Ironborn Lords of the Shield Islands have to defend them, not he. He has other things to do. First he has to defeat the Redwyne fleet and then he will most likely take the Arbor. That should become his new base of operations. As an island it would be much easier to defend against the Reach lords than a base on the mainland of Westeros. And unlike the Shields the Arbor is insanely rich.
  8. What is the "power in king's blood"?

    Well, you have to do something with it. To intend to do something with it. Magic doesn't just happened, you have to want it to happen, too. Dany wanted to hatch her dragon eggs in the pyre. Besides, burning dead people isn't the same as burning them alive or as cutting their throats and spilling their blood in some magical ritual.
  9. That is actually not true. Lord Viserys Plumm is the son of one incest-born Targaryen (Aegon IV) and a Targaryen princess with an incest-born Targaryen father and a Velaryon mother. Ben is descended from one of Viserys' younger sons, and he could very well be the man's grandson considering that he seems to be around fifty in the series. Elaena was married to Ossifer Plumm in 176 AC. Lord Viserys' younger sons may have been born around 200 AC or even later (depending on how many he had). Do the math, if Ben was born around 250 AC or so this would work fine. Gendry is the great-grandson of Rhaelle Targaryen, who herself has as much Blackwood, Dayne, and Martell ancestors as Targaryens. That certainly gives Gendry still a lot of Targaryen ancestors, of course, but not necessarily as much as Ben has. Addam and Alyn of Hull had Velaryon ancestors, and thus also Targaryen ancestors. The other dragonseeds where all Dragonstonians, and many of these people could have Targaryens as ancestors without even knowing it, or - if their ancestors came to Dragonstone with the Targaryens or other Valyrians - dragonlord ancestors from other houses. Ulf was a man-at-arms on Dragonstone. Hugh a blacksmith serving on the island. Smallfolk don't travel far in a feudal society, and Rhaenyra only controlled the island and Driftmark by the time they called for dragonseeds. Aside from the boys from Driftmark it is very unlikely that people came from the outside. No, we certainly know that there are many other dragonlords from other families back in Old Valyria. The Targaryens were just the only surviving dragonlord family. They never were the only ones. If it was possible for the average guy to bond with a dragon then why on earth did never ever steal a Targaryen dragon? Riderless dragons like Vermithor, Silverwing, and Seasmoke should easily have bonded with the very grooms and servants that fed and cleaned the stables of those dragons each day? Why did one of such people never make away with a dragon after its rider died? Why did Maegor claim Balerion after the Conqueror's death and not somebody else? There are magical reasons for all that. The Targaryen dragons were accustomed to the presence of humans but they only bonded with and submitted to the will of a particular breed of people. That is true. But Jon Snow also sees himself as a Snow, right? Tywin himself doubts it to his face, in ASoS. And Tyrion himself informs Jon about his father's doubts in AGoT. Barristan was Aerys' Kingsguard. If Jaime can witness how Aerys rapes his sister-wife Rhaella Barristan Selmy can also witness how Aerys rapes (or seduces and sleeps with) Joanna Lannister. The Kingsguard keep the king's secrets, that's part of their vow. And it is quite clear that there is something Selmy does not want to talk about when he tells Dany about Aerys' passion for Joanna in ADwD. We didn't get the complete story back then. Sure, because Tyrion does not yet have a dragon. When he has one - and can claim or style himself Dany's half-brother - she will see him with different eyes. She will have to listen if she wants to keep the dragon he claimed close, she will be inclined to believe him because she may conclude he is one of the dragon heads she believes she can trust, and she will be happy that she is not actually the only one of her family left alive. That will be important to her. Tyrion Lannister can offer her nothing of those things. He would just be the ugly son of a man she has sworn to kill claiming stuff she cannot double-check right now. Tyrion could tell her he singlehandedly killed Renly Baratheon and Jon Arryn in addition to Tywin Lannister and Joffrey Baratheon and she had no chance to actually verify whether he was telling the truth or not. Tyrion making an approach going like 'I killed by father and nephew and I know stuff. Please don't kill me and make me your adviser.' isn't likely to succeed in a realistic setting. Dany has just no reason to trust this guy.
  10. What is the "power in king's blood"?

    There is actually none. There is a magical power in certain bloodlines - confirmed for the descendants of dragonlords who have 'the blood of the dragon' (which very likely means that there was some sort of blood-merging between the ancient Valyrian dragonlords and the dragons they breed and control) - but it is just an accident of history that the Targaryens ended up becoming a royal dynasty. There are also other magical bloodlines, of course. The ability to become a skinchanger also seems to run in certain families, including the Starks (although nothing indicates that any Starks of the recent past or any prominent Stark kings we know of were skinchangers). The Durrandon-Baratheons certainly seem to be somewhat special, not just because of dominance of the black hair but also because of myth about Durran Godsgrief and Elenei. And even the Lannisters and Casterlys seem to be somewhat special, with Corlos of Caster being guided by the sun into the cave where he found the gold, and the connection they seemed to have with the lions. The line of the Gardeners certainly was special, too. They had a living throne and where the ultimate authority in the Reach from the start, even when there were still a lot of petty kings. Not to mention that Garth the Green and Garth the Gardener would have been rather exceptional beings if they ever existed. But now they are basically extinct, at least in the male line, and even back at the time of the conquest their line was pretty much diluted with quite a few distant cousins taking over when the male line died out. The general idea that wearing a crown or being anointed as king gives your blood 'special powers' is just crap. Both in reality and in Westeros. But in Westeros a special dynasty actually ruled the Realm for three hundred years so there is actually some justification for this stupid belief in that world. The blood that makes Stannis, Shireen, Edric Storm, etc. important is Targaryen blood, not 'king's blood' in general. But blood magic works if you sacrifice special people and it also works (although perhaps not as well as it could) if you sacrifice more ordinary people. Melisandre certainly knows why she wanted to sacrifice Edric Storm. Her followers may be less knowledgeable, explaining why some of them considered sacrificing Mance and his son a good idea. After all, they are kings, too, in a sense. But that's just crap. George plays here both with the fantasy concept of 'magical bloodlines' as well as with the real world medieval belief that kings actually had special powers their descendants inherited. The whole concept of hereditary monarchy and aristocracy is that there are special people set apart from others by blood, breed, and inherent gifts. And that is, of course, also at the heart of the society in Westeros. A Tarly, Mallister, Tallhart, and Rykker is set apart by virtue of both and inherited nobility from some peasant or other commoner. Those are people born to rule and the others to serve, work, and die an early death. Such is the order of the world. The king is just a dialed-up super version of a feudal lord. Even if the Targaryens didn't have special looks and blood people would still believe that as kings they must be better and more special than common men, including lords. Else they would not be where they are - at the very top of the society.
  11. Sure. But he has about the reputation of Charles Manson now. Who the hell would want to have Charles Manson for a diplomat even if he would know 'important stuff'? I certainly agree that Tyrion can give valuable advice. But that's not enough for Dany to just make him her Hand or make him her favorite advisor. If Dany had Tyrion as her negotiator she is likely to lose that negotiation. Even people who liked Tyrion once are not likely going to like him after he killed Joff and his own father. I mean that Tyrion needs an actually incentive/very good reason to believe he can become a dragonrider. The idea that he will just try to mount a dragon because 'he knows his dragonlore' and 'the plot demands it' isn't very likely. Tyrion is not stupid. He is not Quentyn Martell. He has finally decided he wants to live. Now, there is one chance how I think Tyrion could become a dragonrider by accident - if he comes face to face with a dragon during one of the coming battles, and realizes he can either die or try to jump/climb on the dragon's back. Perhaps he could even have another impulse of mad chivalry there, trying to lure the dragon away from Penny or something like that. However, if Tyrion became a dragonrider this way he would, of course, realize/conclude on the basis of his dragonlore knowledge that he cannot, in fact, be Lord Tywin's seed after all. But if he is ever going to search out a dragon in an attempt to mount it he will have to first believe that he has more than just a drop of Targaryen blood like Quentyn or even Brown Ben have. He must believe he is the son of a Targaryen. And if he is Joanna's son by Aerys there is actually one person who might know about that - Barristan Selmy.
  12. Harry & Sansa (Littlefinger is delusional)

    There is certainly a difference between Cersei/the Lannisters' view of Sansa and the view other people (will) have of her. However, that's just a gradual difference. Many of those who actually think she is a kingslayer will want to see her punished for that. And we are talking about those people, not friends of the family. And depending when she shows her face again the Tyrells should want to silence her and Littlefinger for a bunch of other reasons, too. They know that she knows about their involvement in Joff's murder. It is not just the Lannister regime. It is the regime of King Tommen, basically. Tommen and Myrcella (and everybody supporting them) will be honor-bound to avenge their brother. That is why Sansa should have any interesting support any faction trying to get rid of them, too, not just Cersei personally. Sansa retaking Winterfell while Tommen sits the Iron Throne slowly growing into a man wouldn't do. That way he would come for her in ten or fifteen years (or the people ruling in his name at an earlier time).
  13. But Tyrion's dragonlore knowledge suggests he very much believes Targaryen/dragonlord blood is the key element when you want to become a dragonrider. That is why he expects that Dany's dragon liked Brown Ben Plumm. He expects that the man is descended from Lord Viserys Plumm, allegedly the son of Princess Elaena Targaryen by her cousin, King Aegon the Unworthy. Tyrion will never try to mount a dragon by himself if he doesn't expect to succeed at that task. And he won't expect that unless he had reason to believe he had, in fact, Targaryen blood. Even then it should be a suicidal task. Tyrion is a dwarf with crippled legs. To get close to a dragon and mount it while avoiding its teeth and flames you not only have to be courageous but also fast and mobile. There is a magical bond between a dragon and its rider, and those are rooted in blood. You only ride one dragon at a time, and dragon and rider can only bond anew if the other dies. You don't establish such a bond with 'sheer force of wits, perseverance, and his knowledge'.
  14. Then he won't be of much use. There is a reason why those people are tertiary characters and not POVs. If Tyrion is going to be as important as Missandei he is going to sit around a lot, doing nothing. Or may he will do the chores. We might get a lot of information on Dany's underwear that way but little else. This is not completely wrong but Dany will conquer Westeros and quite a few cities and places in Essos. For that she needs commanders and generals not ugly dwarfs. Tyrion may be able to give her some advice on Cersei, Jaime, other Lannisters, Littlefinger, and Mace. But that's it. He won't be able to play the role of a politician because, you know, neither Cersei, Jaime, other Lannisters, Littlefinger, or Mace will even hear Daenerys' terms out if she shows up in their camp with the dwarf in tow. Not to mention what would happen if she actually expected Tyrion to negotiate with anybody in her name. Well, perhaps Jon, Sansa, and Aegon would hear Tyrion out, but that should be it. There is a pretty good chance that Varys and Illyrio have an ulterior motive there. They might know whose Tyrion's real father was. The idea that Varys and Illyrio need Tyrion for anything is not very likely, actually. Varys or Illyrio could have gone to/with Dany or Aegon themselves. They are both smarter than Tyrion. And when Tyrion killed Shae and Tywin he nearly broke. He wasn't of much use thereafter. Illyrio considered to quietly kill Tyrion when he realized that the guy had a death wish. He decided to let him live but we don't know why. The idea that Tyrion knows more about the important people of Westeros than Varys and Illyrio themselves is, quite frankly, ridiculous. Varys did not save Tyrion and to send him to Aegon and Daenerys because he is such a great asset. There must be more than that.
  15. Let's speculate about the future roles of Willas and Garlan

    Even if he interpreted it that way - his answer certainly can't be read as a confirmation that any of the great houses actually will die out. Some certainly could get attainted and/or never be restored (Baratheons, Arryns) but that's another matter. And on the non-noble or bastard level all of the great lines will survive. Well, I really don't care about the author or myself spoiling the ending. I think some of our Stark heroes certainly will end up on top. And I don't think all of them will die (although there is a small chance that, perhaps, that all/many of the great heroes end up dying in the last climatic battle). But this doesn't mean that Bran, Arya, Sansa, Rickon, and Jon are all going to survive. Some of them will. But either Rickon, Arya, or Sansa is certainly in the game to die and stay permanently die if you ask me. The bloodletting is not yet over and the Others certainly have to kill some of our heroes, too, to prove that they mean business. Killing nameless and faceless Tyrells is not going to establish that. The series is about individual characters, not dynasties or houses. We will never meet Dany's, Jon's, Arya's, or Sansa's children (as characters - Dany and/or Jon could have children in the story - Arya and Sansa most likely won't), let alone their grandchildren. The fact that they are likely to end up on top in some fashion in the end doesn't mean their lines will continue for ten thousand years and their great-great-great-grandchildren will exist and/or fuck things up for everybody. And in general, you should keep your expectations how the series will end separate from any discussion of what may happen under certain conditions. Claiming you have special knowledge how the series should or will end has no room in discussion like that. The series has not yet been completed and George can change his mind on the road. He already has, quite a few times. They would not be extinct at the end of the series, of course. Just doomed to die out/unable to continue the line. Just as the withered womb of Lady Dustin is not going to bring forth any Dustins. A Lady Arya, a Lady Sansa, and a Lord Brandon would not be able to continue the line of House Stark (in the male line). That is basically a fact. Ned told us that Bran would never be able to father children. That is all I need to sure of that. That in and of itself makes it clear that Bran is not in the game to return to Winterfell alive. He doesn't have to because he is not even needed to for dynastic purposes. And as for Rickon: If he is lucky they could install him as the new Lord of Winterfell at the end of the entire story. But we won't see a four-year-old leading the fight against the Boltons or the Others. That would just be ridiculous. And the more gruesome and bloody those books get the less room and patience people should have with child pretenders like Rickon, Shireen, Tommen, Bran, Edric Storm, etc. Hard and savage times need hard and savage men like the Starks (and other Northmen) of old. And those were not allowing children to tell them what to do. Or allowed them to serve as their puppets and mouthpieces. I find it more likely that Sansa will end up as the Lady of Winterfell in the end. She is the one who gets proper political training, not to mention that she is likely going rule or at least share in the rule of whatever husband she will finally end up with. Arya is also a possibility, but I really think she deserves better - either a death in battle/war or a life away from the tedious responsibility of rebuilding and ruling. She is not yet twelve and deeply disturbed and traumatized girl. I mean, who believes that an annoying peasant is going to get justice if he presents himself to a, say, 17-year-old Lady Arya when she has had a really bad day? Never thought about Benjen but if he actually is still alive and reasonably well he could actually end up with Winterfell, too, at the very end. If Rickon is dead and Sansa and Arya are doing other stuff and there is no longer a Night's Watch he certainly could return to the place and have a family of his own. That would be reasonably surprising and interesting.
  16. We are not that far apart. But we can be pretty sure, I think, that Tyrion's story will suck as much as @Good Guy Garlan feels it did during ASoS if Tyrion does not become a dragonrider. Because ugly dwarfs without dragons are not going to get a front seat in Daenerys' (war) council. If Tyrion had just his brains to offer to Dany (and not also point to his dragon or address her as 'my sweet (half-)sister') then Dany - and especially Tyrion's rivals for Dany's favor - should be able to sideline him very effectively, especially when it comes to the actual conquest of Essos and Westeros. Tyrion is smart guy but he is neither an accomplished general nor an experienced battle commander. If he doesn't have a dragon he won't lead any of Dany's armies.
  17. Let's speculate about the future roles of Willas and Garlan

    Am I? No, I'm not. I'm ruled by favoritism. The Starks, Targaryens, Arryns, and Baratheons are all threatened by extinction in the main branch because they are down to a handful (or less) people, most of which are either children or youths, prone to make rash and suicidal decisions. I'm inclined that at least one Stark and one Targaryen will survive the series but that's not the same as the line surviving. If Dany turns out to be barren, and Jon becomes king (either as her consort or after her death) and Rickon dies then House Stark will die out in the male line when Bran dies (never mind whether that happens during the series or decades or centuries later). Bran cannot father any children. Sansa and Arya can live but not continue House Stark in the male line. The same would go for Daenerys and House Targaryen if she took a non-Targaryen consort. Her children would then be named after their father as is proper procedure in Westeros. Even Rhaenyra Targaryen's sons by Laenor Velaryon were Velaryons, not Targaryens. If you ask me what I want to happen then I'd answer that I hope the Starks are restored to Winterfell and continue their line. I think you remember that I want Rickon to live and become Lord of Winterfell. I also hope the Targaryens are restored to the Iron Throne in one way or another - either Dany, or Jon Snow, or them both - to continue the royal line. That is necessary for some closure. A child of Jon and Dany's would be nice but it could also work in a more convoluted way - say, by Dany adopting Aegon's son by Arianne, naming him her heir in the wake of her own barrenness (and Jon's possible inability to father children after his, well, death and resurrection). I'm not sure of that, actually. And why Edric and not Gendry or Mya. Mya is an acknowledged noble bastard, too, else she would not be a Stone (her mother is a commoner). Robert just did not acknowledge her when he was king but merely the Lord of Storm's End. Edric Storm is just so insignificant and irrelevant a character that I really don't think he has to come back into the story at all. And if he does he could still live and die a Storm. Storm's End could very well go to some new house. Just as the Eyrie might in the wake of the deaths of Robert Arryn and Harrold Hardyng (who both might not survive the series, either). We are not talking about House Tyrell of Highgarden. The Tyrells certainly could lose Highgarden (although right now I'd call that possibility fantasy or wishful thinking) but that doesn't mean they have to be eradicated as a house. Time matters insofar as the number of Tyrells you seem to want to die have to die on the pages of the books we are talking about. And there are a lot of them left. And just check the family tree again, will you. There are a lot of male branch cousins of Mace left, not just female ones. If Mace, Willas, Garlan, Loras, and Margaery bite the dust there are lots and lots of uncles and cousins through the male line around who would come first. And most of them actually hold positions of power and authority, enabling them to make good of their claims should the need or the opportunity present itself. They are not virtual nobodies like poor Harry Hardyng. But the houses I expect to die out (more or less in the sense that their members are killed and any absent heirs lose everything) are the Freys, the Boltons (who seem to be down to two members of the lordly branch), the Cleganes, the Baelishs (one member who is likely to die), and a few others. Thinking about it, the Tarths are very much threatened (Brienne has a dangerous lifestyle and her lord father isn't the youngest guy under the sun). The idea that George indicating that houses might die out in the series tells us nothing about whether that possibility is realized nor whether any great houses will be affected. Some houses like the Whents, Darrys, and Rosbys already died out in the male line during the books.
  18. Let's speculate about the future roles of Willas and Garlan

    I doubt the Reach will see 'legions of the dead' soon. First they are going to arrive at the Wall, not thousands of leagues farther down south. And even that doesn't seem to be on the table soon. And there are multiple branches of House Tyrell around, both male and female branches, not all of which are actually living at the same place. The idea that they would all die is, well, pretty far-fetched. George is not trying to kill as many Tyrells as possible. In fact, he has not killed a single Tyrell up to this point. The probability that the line of House Tyrell is extinguished is about as high as that the Lannisters of Casterly Rock are eradicated. And that means that it is very low. Other houses are more likely to die out - at least in the lordly branch. The great houses who face the greatest dangers in that regard would be the Arryns, Baratheons, Targaryens, Tullys, Starks, and Martells. The Lannisters, Tyrells, Hightowers, Greyjoys are in a much better position to survive.
  19. Let's speculate about the future roles of Willas and Garlan

    I suggest you reread the Tyrell appendix of ASoS. Even if Luthor and Olenna's entire line were to die the Tyrells would continue without much difficulty. Mace has multiple uncles and a veritable army of cousins.
  20. He actually has. For his own people. For Lannisters, legitimate and illegitimate alike. He raises his late brother Gerion's bastard with commoner, Joy Hill, at Casterly Rock. That's why he didn't kill the ugly dwarf. I mean, regardless who Tyrion's actual sire is, Tywin could always have claimed he knew he wasn't his seed and kill him, or simply have him quietly poisoned. The child was a disgrace in any case, and many people would have understood and accepted it if Tywin had killed him. Just look how many Northmen and others find the idea of putting Bran out of his misery rather compelling. This is not a society which enjoys and easily accepts freaks and cripples. The fact that Tywin allowed Tyrion to live is not a sign that he considered him legitimate (he in fact goes on record that he isn't sure about Tyrion's paternity), it is a sign that he does not kill a member of his own family, regardless whether he is trueborn or a bastard. But note that he is hellbent to ensure that this creature does not succeed him as Lord of Casterly Rock. If he truly believed he was his son then he would certainly have less problems with that idea. Especially since Tyrion would actually be a competent lord. You mean Hizdahr, right? The deciding factor was that Quentyn was basically ugly, came at the wrong time, and had no army. She had no intention to go to Westeros. What if Dany still isn't in Westeros when Tyrion first meets her? Why should she care about his promises that he could be of use to her there? Nobody can confirm his claims that he was a competent Acting Hand and prior to ACoK everybody in Westeros considered Tyrion Lannister to be nothing but a joke. He has admitted he killed Joff to Jaime. And he shows no hint that he is going to recant that throughout ADwD. Tyrion also has no idea about how Westeros is changing right now. He knows nothing about Euron or the new High Septon nor has he much of a picture about Littlefinger in the Vale, Aegon, or the Martells. Once they actually arrive in Westeros any insights he might have on the Lannisters and Tyrells might be useless because the people he knows stuff about might already be dead.
  21. Harry & Sansa (Littlefinger is delusional)

    Olenna and Margaery ask Sansa for her assessment of Joffrey. That basically means people don't exactly talk about the behavior of the king at his own court. Especially not to outsiders. Littlefinger intends to use Sansa only after Cersei (and by extension Tommen) is done. He is very aware of the fact that she is of no political use right now, in the present political climate. For her to be of use things have to change dramatically. Say, Aegon never came and we just had a conflict between the Lannisters, the Tyrells, and the Martells up until Dany arrived. If the Lannisters were the faction (led, say, by Daven or some of the other cousins) joining Daenerys because the Tyrells had become the power dominating the Iron Throne then Daenerys may very well have felt compelled to execute Sansa Stark as a kingslayer in exchange for the support and the allegiance of Casterly Rock. And many of the Westerosi people may support her in this. It is a heinous crime we are talking about. Kingslayers have to die, just as the Freys and Boltons have right now. They are basically hated by everyone. Just as Sansa might be if she showed her face again under the wrong circumstances.
  22. If it was a literal year before Tyrion's birth it would actually be confirmation that Aerys wasn't his father as a pregnancy doesn't last for twelve months. But you know what I meant there. The latter is just what I happen to consider the likeliest possibility. And I'm pretty sure we'll get sufficient textual evidence for that eventually, just as we'll get with Jon Snow. In his case I think the case is already tight enough to not need special additional clues to figure things out. With Tyrion it is not as rock solid. But the reason why I brought this up is that I think only Tyrion the Targaryen bastard and/or Tyrion the dragonrider can provide the necessary setting for Tyrion's return to power and influence. A penniless ugly dwarf who also happens to be a kingslayer and kinslayer as well as the close relation of Daenerys Targaryen's sworn enemies is not going to rise to prominence and her court or be able to retain her favor. Tyrion's very looks make it unlikely that the people around Dany (including herself) are likely to trust him. The impression we get in ASoS and ADwD is that his scar and the loss of his nose in combination with his mismatched eyes and over-sized head make it very difficult for people to actually feel comfortable in his very presence. His knowledge about Westerosi politics could only come in handy when they actually are in Westeros. But they are still in Slaver's Bay. If he does not acquire a dragon he has literally nothing. And even if they are in Westeros - Dany's reputation would certainly suffer because the ugly murderous dwarf is in her retinue. He would be seen as her equivalent of Gregor Clegane and Ramsay Bolton. I'm not sure his advice could make up for that. Dany has to win battles, and Tyrion is not exactly of much use in that department.
  23. Let's speculate about the future roles of Willas and Garlan

    I'd not say she always has her way. But I think she and Mace have the same goal - get House Tyrell to the very top of the food chain and have all of Westeros do homage to the golden rose. Olenna may not have been all that happy with the Renly approach. But then, we know the original plan was to make Margaery Robert's new queen. I'm pretty sure she approved of that. Sure, Margaery marrying into the royal family was important. But Willas' marriage is even more important, and if you compare Willas-Sansa/Cersei to Joffrey/Tommen-Margaery Willas' marriage either to Sansa or Cersei would have allowed the main branch of House Tyrell to control another great house and set themselves as the new ruling house of the united Reach-North or united Reach-West. Especially a son by Willas-Cersei could have permanently united the West and the Reach under his rule. Those are neighboring regions after all. Not to mention the enormous wealth Willas would have been able to control directly as Lord of Highgarden and lord husband of the Lady of Casterly Rock. Sure, but Renly-Loras/Margaery wasn't exactly an easy way to permanently control the Iron Throne. Renly would have to take the throne over the dead bodies of Stannis and Cersei's sons, setting another major precedent that rebellions are a legitimate means to gain power. And with Renly's sexual preferences it would be very easy to declare Margaery's children later on bastards - just as Rhaenyra's sons by Laenor were - resulting in multiple rebellions throughout Renly's reign as well as after his death. Joffrey was a better alternative after Renly's death and it would have worked fine had he not been as fucked-up a brat as he was. That is nonsense. George has made it crystal clear that the Lannisters are as insanely rich as they appear. The mines beneath Casterly Rock (and those in the West in general, aside from those who are mentioned to be exhausted). This is not all that strange, actually. Mace and Garlan also weren't part of Renly's grand progress. Mace and 10,000 Tyrell men including Garlan and Willas stayed behind at Highgarden. For some reason they were not all that keen to participate in the war personally. Only Loras and Margaery were with Renly. Nope, that's a plan to control the North and eventually install a Tyrell as the new Lord of Winterfell. Sansa is just Willas' breeding mare, there, just as she would have been as Tyrion's wife. Just as 'Arya' is for Ramsay now. She is the one behind the Margaery-Tommen marriage. And she is the one who insists that the new married royal couple actually sleeps in one bed together. Cersei shuts that down, of course, but it is crystal clear that she wants Margaery to have her own son as quickly as possible and then Tommen could go, too, if he turned out to be quarrelsome.
  24. Tyrion's plot is somewhat more interesting in ACoK and a lot more is happening in there than is in ASoS. But then, this is true for pretty much any other character. ASoS is a much slower book than ACoK. However, I certainly agree with you that Tyrion's story in ASoS is far from uninteresting. But him being sidelined certainly makes his chapters not as interesting as his chapters in ACoK. It does. There are rumors that Lady Joanna and Prince/King Aerys may have had an affair even before the woman married Ser Tywin. More importantly, Lady Joanna is in KL for the tourney and feast commemorating Aerys II's tenth anniversary on the Iron Throne, and we know Aerys was still very much interested in her. This was in 272 AC, a year before Tyrion's birth 273 AC. If Aerys and Joanna had sex during her stay in KL - either consensual or not - Aerys could very well be Tyrion's father. If Tywin had killed Tyrion he would have still killed Joanna's son. He loved that woman. Would you kill the child of your beloved wife? I wouldn't. I might not be able to love him, just as Tywin was incapable of loving the ugly little shit who might (or was) not his seed and killed his mother during his birth but not loving isn't the same as killing an innocent child. Tyrion would still be a Lannister bastard if he was Aerys' son. Joanna was born a Lannister of Casterly Rock. That is was just an example. Quentyn could also have helped Dany. But she still rejected his offer to marry her. A dwarf who killed his father and own royal nephew is not the kind of person you want on your council. She could just collect Tyrion's knowledge on the lords and nobles of Westeros and then feed her to her dragons or just, well, throw him into some gutter to let him die there. Quentyn's not exactly attractive looks and demeanor played a considerable role in Dany's decision to reject his offer. Tyrion basically has nothing of substance to offer her. Quentyn had Dorne. Tyrion cannot offer her anything. Not Lannister gold nor the loyalty and support of the Westermen. In fact, he would need her help to conquer the West and Casterly Rock.
  25. Harry & Sansa (Littlefinger is delusional)

    One assumes that it is known at court. The rumors about Sansa being jealous of Margaery and murdering Joffrey because he spurned her could certainly include that whole thing. For all the Stark-Tully people knew Sansa Stark was an honored hostage at KL. I'm with you that these people do not necessarily believe she wanted to be Joff's wife but Robb still effectively disowned her when she became a Lannister by marriage. Her own allegiance and feelings in the matter are irrelevant. And we can safely say that this should also be true for the non-Stark supporters in the Realm. The Stormlanders, Reach men, Dornishmen, Westermen, Crownlanders, and even some of the Riverlanders, Northmen, and Vale men would not see her as the innocent victim of a evil plot but as a scheming twisted woman who stands accused of regicide. Keep in mind that the Faith arrested two queens with impunity already.