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About TheCasualObserver

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  1. If this turns out to be the slow roll revelation that LF had a stroke at the midway point in season 4, and has been suffering an ongoing mental collapse every since, I might give the writers a little more credit.
  2. If I can discuss Jaime and Cersei's relationship in the show, it's clear that things are very different in the books. In the show, Jame still loves Cersei and wants to protect her and help her. I have no doubt that following her blowing up the sept, their relationship will finally come to an end and eventually this will lead to Jaime killing her. I guess to the show fans this is fine. Jaime loves Cersei - Cersei does some bad things - Jaime stops loving Cersei. It's simplistic and easy to follow. But compared with the books it's so bland. The thing that most interests me about these two characters is that the fact that they are brother and sister is by no means the worst element of their relationship. It's based on lies, manipulation and pride, not love. When Jaime has his little accident, it fundamentally changes him as a person, and that change is all it takes for him to gradually come to a very mature and reasoned conclusion; Cersei is bad for him, he is bad for Cersei and they want fundamentally different things and always did. It is this realization which fuels his break from her. You'll notice that this happens long before Cersei blows anything up (assuming that she will in the books) and before all their children are dead, or Cersei makes and insane and unsustainable power grab. It is a decision based on the nature of the characters - Jaime is a rather callous man even if he is sympathetic, so it makes sense for GRRM to break them up based on the differences in their character rather than causing the break up due to a monstrous or unforgivable act, which Jaime himself has committed and rationalized. Whatever GRRM's faults, he has an excellent grasp on characterization - I consider it his best asset as a writer - which the show simply cannot compete with in any meaningful sense whatsoever.
  3. Again, most scenarios where LF has succeeded could not have been thought out in advance. He makes a move and then reacts to the fallout. He didn't know that Catelyn would meet Tyrion at the crossroads at the perfect time and he didn't know that Renly would die by magic, giving him the chance to broker a marriage. Neither of these could have been anticipated by LF. Having Joffrey killed is a wrench in the works - he gets an in with the Tyrells by helping them ice Joffrey, steals Sansa away and retreats to see how things pan out, letting the chips fall where they may. I suppose if we are really simplifying the quote to something like "think ahead" in a general sense then that's fine, LF does do that; but so does every rational human being. This interpretation exposes just what a facile piece of writing it is.
  4. I don't buy this at all. "A good friend to the Boltons?" Why would they be friends with him? He gives them exactly what they want and leaves. He abandons all leverage and effectively relies on the people who planned the red wedding to help him out at a later date out of sheer gratitude. This is idiotic. I don't really understand why he needs Cersei's help, particularly when mid season 5 her position was deteriorating, but even so - if he wanted to impress her, why not tell Cersei that Sansa was in the north and then... not send Sansa to the North? He's cersei's only source of information here. How about acting like the LF from earlier seasons and tell a lie? It gets him everything he wants and doesn't endanger Sansa at all. And finally, "he moved a player according to his will" is gibberish. He doesn't cement Sansa as a piece if she goes to Winterfell, she becomes a Bolton piece. He controlled her, then turned her over to the Boltons, and for what? Nothing tangible, nothing sensible and ultimately he tood to lose far more than he had to gain. Even if his army defeats the Boltons and he lays siege to Winterfell, as far as he knows Sansa is still inside. What stops the Boltons from killing her in that scenario. It didn't blow up in his face because he didn't know Ramsay was a psycho (why didn't he know that by the way?) it blew up because the plan is fatally flawed in every respect. If Sansa dies he has nothing - the Northmen won't follow him, the Vale lords think he's an idiot for losing Sansa, and he has nothing but a letter from cersei telling everyone he's in charge. I feel like people just watch the episodes, swallow whatever bullshit the writers paper the cracks with, and not think critically about anything that happens anymore.
  5. But we've been over this. LF doesn't plan ahead, he throws shit at the wall and sees what sticks, climbing the ladder in chaos. Or something like that anyway. As I said earlier in the threat, that quote, however silly, would be better applied to Varys, and certainly doesn't apply to LF.
  6. That quote is so stupid. What did marrying Sansa to the Boltons have to do with making that picture a reality? I guess it's a special kind of chaos which is actually meticulously planned somehow. I simply don't understand why they would do this, other than because they are so enamored with the character they simply want him to be everything at once. We've known from book one that Varys is the careful chess master and LF is the chaotic social climber, and these are very clear cut characterizations. Why change them?
  7. Oddly enough, I find season 5 and season 6 to be written in very similar ways, with the key difference being that season 5 was intended to be dark and season 6 less so. So season 5 had improbable and ridiculous things happen which worked to the detriment of the good guys and season 6 had similar ridiculous things happen to their benefit. In season 5 Sansa marries the Boltons for no reason, Stannis burns Shireen because of light snowfall and Jon fails to communicate anything to his men and gets stabbed. In comparison the bad guys go from strength to strength - Ramsay has his twenty good men, the high sparrow just fumbles his way into supreme power and the Boltons absolutely crush Stannis in ten minutes. In season 6 things reverse. Sansa is a player somehow, Jon comes back to life with no ill effects, Dany burns all the dothraki chiefs alive with no consequences and Arya survives stabs in the gut like no ones business. And similarly, the bad guys fold up like a house of cards. Roose becomes a gullible schoolgirl and gets shanked by Ramsay, Walder Frey get's killed with literally no set up at all, Ramsay fails to spot thousands of knights chilling out at Moat Cailen for six months and the high sparrow twiddles his thumbs whilst he waits for Cersei to kill his men and blow him up. NONE of these scenarios appear to have been given the thought or set up that they needed to appear believable to the audience. In season 5 the bad guys are allowed to cheat and win, then in season 6 it's the good guy's turn. But whether it's good or bad things happening, GOT has abandoned the notion of consequences for it's characters, which was fundamentally what the books and initially the series presented to it's audience and created the real narrative drama.
  8. Absolutely true, but at least Sansa wasn't responsible for that. LF showing up is a blatant example of the writers forcing something to happen - fair enough, that's what all fiction is - but the situation is so dumb it infuriates me. What makes it egregious is that they made Moat Cailen important in season 4; Ramsay used Theon to get it back from the Ironborn and was rewarded by Roose by becoming his heir, so the castle even has emotional value to him. Come season 6, you can't argue that Moat Cailen would be undefended - early in the season Roose is worrying about an invasion from the south by Cersei. Then Ramsay murders his mother in law, who's relatives live closest to Moat Cailen. There's no way it would be left undefended in those circumstances. It's ridiculous. We also have to consider the stark contrast between Ramsay of season 5, a man so knowledgeable in the layout of the north he can somehow make an entire armies supplies go up in smoke without ever being seen, and Ramsay of season 6, who's shanghaied in the middle of his own terriotry by a massive army of horsemen he had no idea existed. The two are totally contradictory. One argument I've heard is that LF and Ramsay are allies, so he just let LF occupy his fort and march north under the impression that he was coming to help. This is also dumb. The shady alliance was between Roose and LF; and Ramsay has subsequently killed Roose. So why would the alliance still be viable? In fact, the last time we saw Ramsay and LF together he was promising that he wouldn't hurt Sansa. So he does hurt Sansa, she escapes, and then shortly after LF shows up on his doorstep with an army. Are we assuming that Ramsay didn't find that suspicious at all? A rational person would assume that LF had come for revenge - he actually hadn't and was planning to do this anyway, but how else could Ramsay view it? I guess he just read the script.
  9. But how does she know he will arrive in time? That's what bugs me. It's a massive strategic oversight. Also, as I've said before, any commander in history will tell you that communication between forces is vital. If you are trying to trap one army with two armies, they have to be in contact.
  10. I can't say that sounds much like LF to me. His big move in season 1, which gets the plot moving, is telling Catelyn that the knife was Tyrion's. This does accomplish things he wants - it makes Catelyn trust the Lannisters even less and increases the likelihood that peace will continue - but it was Catelyn meeting Tyrion at the inn and arrets him which really kicks things off, and that's an eventuality which LF couldn't have anticipated. In season two he goes off to sell the Joffrey marriage to the Tyrells and profits from it, but he didn't know that was on the cards until Renly died - again, not something he could have anticipated. LF stirs shit up and then reacts to what happens. He's smart (prior to season 5) but I certainly wouldn't describe him as a "chess master" type.
  11. I'm not sure I fully understand the sequencing of the battle. As memory serves, Sansa send a letter to LF in an act of desperation and she doesn't know if he can arrive to affect the result of the battle, nor does she know when Jon will actually fight. This uncertainty continues up to the night before the battle, as far as the audience is shown - we're not given any indication that Sansa knows where LF is until the morning after, which is too late from a strategic perspective. Timing is actually hugely important here, because whether Sansa is callously sacrificing Jon and Rickon for her own ambition or not, LF's army still has to smack Ramsay down before his whole army can retreat back into winterfell and survive a miserable siege. They have to catch him out in the open or the plan doesn't work. Leaving it to chance is terrible decision making and serves no particular purpose. Sansa smugly riding away during the battle is also dumb (she doesn't know how long mopping up Jon's army will take) and the whole set up is terrible even if Jon is just bait because the smart play is trying to draw Ramsay and his army as far from winterfell and safety as possible for the one-two punch. Ultimately, accomplishing what Sansa wants is far easier with co-ordinating Jon and LF's armies. Her actions here aren't reliant on strategy or planning - they are dependent entirely upon the narrative convention that the cavalry always arrives in time. Her decision making as a whole this season is hopelessly flawed, and never more so in her meeting with LF. She doesn't attempt to hide her feelings when she sees him, makes no effort to get his help anyway and also fails to consider the possibility of talking to Sweet Robin and the Vale Lords directly for help. If Sansa is a woman who still ultimately loves her family then she is incompetent at it. If she has become a dark and vicious character irretrevably hardened by her experiences, then she's incompetent at that too. I really hate season 6.
  12. The problem is, I just don't know why she didn't tell Jon in that moment. If she thinks that LF won't arrive in time, Jon running to his death accomplishes nothing. If she thinks LF will arrive in the nick of time, then she needs to delay Jon as long as possible before he commits to a doomed battle plan. Telling him about incoming reinforcements solves both of these problems. Since even the night before the battle she didn't even know if LF had responded to her letter, there's really no excuse for her to not tell Jon other than to "surprise" the especially inattentive members of the audience.
  13. She hasn't just taken over KL - she's basically in charge of the whole kingdom and somehow good at it. I guess in the past when people on these forums said that Cersei was "more complex" than her book counterpart, they just meant that everything involved in her story-line was "too difficult to understand". The amount of bullshit involved with Cersei now is ludicrous and it started the moment she blew up the sept like it was a controlled explosion. How exactly does a medieval ruler prevent her entire city from going up in flames when she just detonated what is effectively a napalm explosion in the middle of it? And because she did that, she's now Queen of the seven kingdoms? I agree with you - It makes Euron's shipwright on the moon seem sensible.
  14. Why was she even there? That made no goddamn sense.
  15. That whole thing is just nuts. Back in season 2, Tyrion and Varys had that conversation about where power comes from - wealth, religion or the threat of violence - and decided that power resides where people thinks it resides. The whole point of that (or so I thought) was that legitimacy makes the difference between a ruler and a rebel. I just don't see how Cersei can possess any legitimacy at all. All that matters now is the violence - Cersei blew some people up, which means shes in charge, because violence is the only true source of authority. Never mind that she has no money to pay her men. Never mind that she killed her own uncle. Never mind that she blew up hundreds of innocents. Never mind that she murdered a popular religious figure. Never mind that she killed a more popular family. She's the one who has used the most violence, so in the crude and simply world that GOT has become, she's in charge. To make things worse, it's not as if Wildfyre is a particularly useful weapon. You can defend a castle with it, fight some sea battles with it, and blow up some people if you know where they are going to be, but it's completely useless for projecting power. It's hardly a dragon.